A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Larry Cook]

This seems to be the goal nowadays for a large market club. Never truly go for it but always be in the picture. This maximizes revenue without breaking the bank

 

Isn’t maximizing revenue and ebitda the goal?

 

As a business owner, it is what I get up for every morning.

[moonslav59]

What promised land?

 

I mean, you get to the promised land like we did in 2018, you bring back the same team the next year, and it all goes sideways...

 

The promised land is a pipe dream.

 

Just enjoy the ride we've been on is all you can do.

 

I'm talking about going into the season as a top 4-6 contender, like we were in 2018.

 

That's what you try to do every few years.

 

The 2013's are the pipe dreams, as was our chances in 2021. Yes, miracles can happen, but I think building for a ring window of a few years is the way to plan.

 

Right now, the plan is not to win it all in 2022. It wasn't in 2021, either, and the proof was when even after a great start, we did not do much at the deadline.

 

Had we spent big, this winter, maybe we could have cracked the top 4-6, but I do not think the top brass sees this as "the time."

 

[moonslav59]

We added two lefties today to the pen. Jake Diekman is projected to be our best lefty. Matt Strahm was the other depth piece. That's on top of three other lefties that pitched for the Sox last year, Hernandez, Taylor and Davis.

 

Bloom is making incremental improvements.

 

You simply can't dismiss every addition because they are not signed for $10M+.

.

 

The guy walks 5 per 9- career and in 2021.

 

If he's our best lefty pen arm, that's a tiny incremental gain.

[moonslav59]

Jake Diekman?

 

Am I missing something?

 

I mean, you guys hated on Ottavino. (I did a little bit, too, I admit.)

 

Diekman is 35.

He's coming off a 5.0 BB/9 season, which is exactly his career number.

His WHIP was 1.335, which is also close to his career 1.335.

His HR/9 number (1.5 in '21) was over twice his career 0.7 mark.

Sure he K's a bunch of people, but so did Ottavino and so does DHern.

12.3 K/9 in 2021 (11.5 career)

 

Ottavino was 35 wen we acquired him (not a lefty, I know).

He was coming off a 5.1 BB/9 season, but had a career mark of 4.0 not 5.1.

He had an awful WHIP in 2020 and had a career mark of 1.312 before 2021.

His career HR/9 is 0.9- about the same as Diekman.

His career k/9 was 10.4 and was 12.3 in 2020- close to Diekman's numbers.

 

DHern is 25 and has one of the 8th highest K/9 career rates in MLB history at 14.2 (78+ IP).

Sure, his 7.4 BB/9 rate blows Ottavino and Diekman away, but he lets up way less hits (6.3 over the last 2 seasons). His HR/9 rate is about the same at 0.9.

 

Look, I'm not saying I'd take DHern over Diekman, but lets not get carried away on this guy, just yet, anyway.

 

Taylor has better numbers:

3.9 career BB/9 (4.3 in '21)

11.3 K rate (11.3 in '21)

1.329 WHIP (1.427 in '21)

0.8 HR/9 (0.4 in '21)

Edited March 14, 2022 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

The deals are coming fast and furious now. A frenzy of signings and trades. Hard to keep track of who is where.

[Swiharts Ghost]

The guy walks 5 per 9- career and in 2021.

 

If he's our best lefty pen arm, that's a tiny incremental gain.

 

Guys got electric stuff but he walks the park like you said but he Ks a lot of guys .I see the attraction by Bloom but this type of pitcher could torpedo a team .I would have hard passed on him but there’s no denying he may have been the best FA lefty left ? We will see.

[Old Red]

Jake Diekman?

 

Am I missing something?

 

I mean, you guys hated on Ottavino. (I did a little bit, too, I admit.)

 

Diekman is 35.

He's coming off a 5.0 BB/9 season, which is exactly his career number.

His WHIP was 1.335, which is also close to his career 1.335.

His HR/9 number (1.5 in '21) was over twice his career 0.7 mark.

Sure he K's a bunch of people, but so did Ottavino and so does DHern.

12.3 K/9 in 2021 (11.5 career)

 

Ottavino was 35 wen we acquired him.

He was coming off a 5.1 BB/9 season, but had a career mark of 4.0 not 5.1.

He had an awful WHIP in 2020 and had a career mark of 1.312 before 2021.

His career HR/9 is 0.9- about the same as Diekman.

His career k/9 was 10.4 and was 12.3 in 2020- close to Diekman's numbers.

 

DHern is 25 and has one of the 8th highest K/9 career rates in MLB history at 14.2 (78+ IP).

Sure, his 7.4 BB/9 rate blows Ottavino and Diekman away, but he lets up way less hits (6.3 over the last 2 seasons). His HR/9 rate is about the same at 0.9.

 

Look, I'm not saying I'd take DHern over Diekman, but lets not get carried away on this guy, just yet, anyway.

 

Lesser of two evils I guess. DHern I know is young but it’s not like he hasn’t had chances. Bloom must like Diekman and that’s good enough for most. Me I’ll do a wait, and see. I’m more concerned what Barnes will do. Still waiting for contract info on Diekman?

Edited March 14, 2022 by Old Red

[Swiharts Ghost]

Yankees get Donaldson and jettison Urshela ? ...bad trade here but they Jettison Gary and get back a catcher I’ve never heard of .Change of scenery for Gary May help the kid ? Don’t know .Josh is a walking Injury concern.Urshela gives this a clear win for MN.I don’t understand this trade at all for the Yankees .Donaldson is another DH is he not ?

[Larry Cook]

Yankees get Donaldson and jettison Urshela ? ...bad trade here but they Jettison Gary and get back a catcher I’ve never heard of .Change of scenery for Gary May help the kid ? Don’t know .Josh is a walking Injury concern.Urshela gives this a clear win for MN.I don’t understand this trade at all for the Yankees .Donaldson is another DH is he not ?

 

Didn’t the twins trade for infielder alfalfa earlier in the day or yesterday? This trade must have been brewing for a bit.

[moonslav59]

Yankees get Donaldson and jettison Urshela ? ...bad trade here but they Jettison Gary and get back a catcher I’ve never heard of .Change of scenery for Gary May help the kid ? Don’t know .Josh is a walking Injury concern.Urshela gives this a clear win for MN.I don’t understand this trade at all for the Yankees .Donaldson is another DH is he not ?

 

The Yanks got a GG SS, too.

[moonslav59]

Lesser of two evils I guess. DHern I know is young but it’s not like he hasn’t had chances. Bloom must like Diekman and that’s good enough for most. Me I’ll do a wait, and see. I’m more concerned what Barnes will do. Still waiting for contract info on Diekman?

 

I heard multi-season.

 

DHern K's more.

 

Taylor has better overall numbers.

 

I'm fine with getting him, but I'm not getting all the hype.

[Old Red]

I heard multi-season.

 

DHern K's more.

 

Taylor has better overall numbers.

 

I'm fine with getting him, but I'm not getting all the hype.

 

Have to ask Bloom on this one. How many LH do we need in the pen?

[moonslav59]

Have to ask Bloom on this one. How many LH do we need in the pen?

 

I don't see an overload.

 

Our top 3 are RHPs: Houck, Whitlock & Barnes.

 

Out of the next 3-5, we have Brasier & Sawamura, so having a pool of lefties in the middle and bottom of the pen is not having too many.

 

DHern has options left.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not sure it is relevant, but Barnes was lights out from April to June when the spin rate on the 4 seamer was around 2400 plus,

 

But by July it was down to around 2100 plus.

 

I see two things:

 

1.) Barnes got over used and his arm went dead.

2.) Barnes sustained an injury and kept his mouth shut.

 

Whatever happened is unknown, but we should know fairly early in the season how he is throwing.

 

We've been watching Barnes since 2014 -- that's eight years in the majors -- and it should be obvious, by now, that last year wasn't an outlier (except maybe for being rewarded with an extension after making the All-Star team). The fact is, Barnes always looks good in the first half and always slumps in the second half.

 

Career splits (batting average and OPS): April/March .171/.553; May .214/.650... August .289/.902... eegads, by now, the Epstein regime would just give him a month's vacation every August, like they did when they let Pedro shut it down and go home in Julys.

[mvp 78]

Hang’em Chaim is rebuilding the farm system to help eliminate the occasional dips and keep us annually winning.

 

Even with a strong farm system, there were a few last place finishes in 12, 14 and 15.

[mvp 78]

I’ve been a Red Sox fan for over 60 years, so I’m fully aware how many WS the Red Sox have won in that time frame.

 

I never said Henry intentionally put on a s*** show, but the Bobby V year comes mighty close.

 

Hopefully the moves the Red Sox have made this off season works out, and Diekman looks like a good pickup, but I’m not to impressed with the rest, and that goes for JBJ. Time will tell, and there were some good hits last year with some of Bloom’s acquisitions, so hopefully he hits on some again.

 

Bobby V was hired because the old guard was out after 2011. Ben wasn't given enough autonomy to make all the calls he needed to make (which is why we saw Sandoval and Valentine signings). I think Henry learned from that mistake, but you never know.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm talking about going into the season as a top 4-6 contender, like we were in 2018.

 

That's what you try to do every few years.

 

The 2013's are the pipe dreams, as was our chances in 2021. Yes, miracles can happen, but I think building for a ring window of a few years is the way to plan.

 

Right now, the plan is not to win it all in 2022. It wasn't in 2021, either, and the proof was when even after a great start, we did not do much at the deadline.

 

Had we spent big, this winter, maybe we could have cracked the top 4-6, but I do not think the top brass sees this as "the time."

 

 

Any guess on what year "the time" is?

[Bellhorn04]

Even with a strong farm system, there were a few last place finishes in 12, 14 and 15.

 

That's quite a few LOL

[mvp 78]

Have to ask Bloom on this one. How many LH do we need in the pen?

 

It's weird. The SoxProspects podcast was even saying last week that they didn't think Bloom would add any LHP depth as they already had more than enough. Maybe he's really concerned about slowly easing the SP into this season due to the lockout? Just adding depth for the sake of depth? IDK.

[Bellhorn04]

It's weird. The SoxProspects podcast was even saying last week that they didn't think Bloom would add any LHP depth as they already had more than enough. Maybe he's really concerned about slowly easing the SP into this season due to the lockout? Just adding depth for the sake of depth? IDK.

 

Diekman's splits are about equal, so does his handedness (what a word) really matter that much?

[mvp 78]

We've been watching Barnes since 2014 -- that's eight years in the majors -- and it should be obvious, by now, that last year wasn't an outlier (except maybe for being rewarded with an extension after making the All-Star team). The fact is, Barnes always looks good in the first half and always slumps in the second half.

 

Career splits (batting average and OPS): April/March .171/.553; May .214/.650... August .289/.902... eegads, by now, the Epstein regime would just give him a month's vacation every August, like they did when they let Pedro shut it down and go home in Julys.

 

Well, you could also show JULY: .207/.578 and SEPTEMBER: .249/.571.

 

Seems more like August is just a bad month for him? Considering the low amount of innings a reliever pitches, a few bad outings can really skew some stats.

[mvp 78]

Diekman's splits are about equal, so does his handedness (what a word) really matter that much?

 

His HR rate last year 5 times higher against RHB. I don't know enough about Diekman to give a definitive answer. It's just weird to have that many lefties as most bullpens only have a couple.

 

Again, they need to add pitchers due to the lockout. They need to protect both the AAA and MLB rotations. I'm not against the moves, it's just not what I expected. I expected some dumpster diving for arms, but whatever...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, you could also show JULY: .207/.578 and SEPTEMBER: .249/.571.

 

Seems more like August is just a bad month for him? Considering the low amount of innings a reliever pitches, a few bad outings can really skew some stats.

 

He barely pitched in the postseason though. Was he hurt or a healthy scratch? I can't even remember.

[mvp 78]

That's quite a few LOL

 

Yes. I like the argument that a strong farm system will keep a team competitive, but we have relatively recent history that shows that it's not always the case.

[mvp 78]

He barely pitched in the postseason though. Was he hurt or a healthy scratch? I can't even remember.

 

I think he was hurt last year. I was listing his career stats. Last year was not good, that's for sure.

[mvp 78]

Any guess on what year "the time" is?

 

They said last year wasn't the time to win it all and they made the ALCS. Maybe they should just try to win it all more often and get them over the hump? It'll be interesting to see what moon's answer is though.

[Nick]

Yankees add Josh Donaldson.

 

He's right handed, no? Interesting. I thought they wanted to add left handed bats.

[mvp 78]

Yankees add Josh Donaldson.

 

He's right handed, no? Interesting. I thought they wanted to add left handed bats.

 

They just wanted to get rid of Sanchez. Urshela wasn't great last year. Donaldson definitely fills a need as long as he can stay healthy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, you could also show JULY: .207/.578 and SEPTEMBER: .249/.571.

 

Seems more like August is just a bad month for him? Considering the low amount of innings a reliever pitches, a few bad outings can really skew some stats.

 

...except it's every August when Barnes melts down. I'd think after eight years, the professional analyticals would have a plan for management on how to deal with a guy like that.

[Nick]

I don't mean to give impression that I'm okay with the team as it stands.

 

I will be very disappointed if we don't add Suzuki.

 

Verdugo, Kike and JBJ? Really? I'm not a fan of JBJ. I was hoping we flip him again for additional minor leaguers. The guy goes on a 3 month slumps.

 

Or Sox can make a bold move and add Correa. I love Xander but he's just not a very good shortstop. You'll know a good shortstop when you see it.

 

Contracts coming off after 2022

$22M JD (replaced by Dalbec/Casas)

$17M Eovaldi (replaced by Houck)

$16M Price

$07M Kike (re-sign him)

$07M Vaz

$07M Wacha (replaced by Whitlock)

$05M Hill (replaced by Paxton)

$03M Strahm

 

Total $77M

 

Throw in another $20M for Xander opting out, that gets us close to $100M coming off the books for 2023.

 

Cot's has us at $210M. We could blow past the $230M this year and bring it back down next year.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Nick