A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

The Bogey & Sale extensions began in 2020, but yes, no big FA signings.

 

Yes, and I was thinking more about what happens to Bogey, and Raffy now, and the rest of this year, and next. Then we’ll see what the picture looks like.

[moonslav59]

Sox interested in Colin McHugh...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/red-sox-among-teams-interested-in-collin-mchugh.html

[moonslav59]

Yes, and I was thinking more about what happens to Bogey, and Raffy now, and the rest of this year, and next. Then we’ll see what the picture looks like.

 

But wasn't your point about Henry not spending large over the last 2 years, and it was really just 2021- the year after a horrific season and obvious rebuild?

[Old Red]

But wasn't your point about Henry not spending large over the last 2 years, and it was really just 2021- the year after a horrific season and obvious rebuild?

 

I meant 2021, and so far this year as the last two years. I know this year might not be done as far as putting the team together, but I still don’t think anything big will get done. I hope I’m wrong, and the the biggest piece isn’t your favorite JBJ trade.

[notin]

What he spent in the past is one thing, but up till now the last two years has been mostly bargain basement pickups. Betts is gone, and Bogey, and Raffy will be the next real test, or any other big FA signing for that matter.

 

Even without spending much the last two off-seasons, the Sox still had one of the highest payrolls in MLB…

[Old Red]

Even without spending much the last two off-seasons, the Sox still had one of the highest payrolls in MLB…

 

No one is disputing what the total payroll is. I said what he has done the past two years meaning 2021, and so far this year has been bargain basement stuff. Bogey’s, and Sales extension were both signed in 2019 under the DD regime. Since Bloom has come in things have changed so far. Every time I talk about this someone comes back with total payroll, which I never disputed. I know total payroll is up there.

[moonslav59]

I meant 2021, and so far this year as the last two years. I know this year might not be done as far as putting the team together, but I still don’t think anything big will get done. I hope I’m wrong, and the the biggest piece isn’t your favorite JBJ trade.

 

OK, that makes sense: 2021-2022=2 years.

 

There have been several times I've questioned some moves made by our GM and been wrong. 2013 was a big one.

 

Even with some swings and misses, last winter- most notably Richards, Perez, Ottavino & Marwin, things worked out pretty well, especially when you consider where our starting point was from 2021's roster. That roster was not only weak, but it was as shallow as I've seen in years.

 

This winter, I expected we'd have about the same amount of spending money but with a deeper roster, not as many holes to fill. I'd be lying if I said I felt good about the spending, so far, but maybe one of the signings will be next year's Kike or Renfroe, or we'll discover a new Whitlock or two.

 

The money, so far:

 

$12M JBJ

$10M Paxton

$7M Wacha

$5M R Hill

($34M Total)

 

Then, there is the $7M Vaz option and the Barnes extension from last season at $9.4M.

 

There is still $22M to spend and stay below the line. Maybe we go over- maybe we don't. Maybe we trade some salary, so we can sign more. Maybe we bargain hunt for another year, but I feel pretty confident, Henry & Bloom will spend very large, soon.

 

Maybe and hopefully on Devers, maybe him and other, maybe just others.

 

He may be looking at 2023 or 2024 as the optimal year to go large, as Price's deal comes off the books and maybe we get some infusion from the farm.

 

[moonslav59]

No one is disputing what the total payroll is. I said what he has done the past two years meaning 2021, and so far this year has been bargain basement stuff. Bogey’s, and Sales extension were both signed in 2019 under the DD regime. Since Bloom has come in things have changed so far. Every time I talk about this someone comes back with total payroll, which I never disputed. I know total payroll is up there.

 

No, you haven't disputed that. You are correct, but you seem to act like the first 2.5 winters of Bloom's reign is what we are stuck with.

 

Nobody doubts the fact that we have not spent large on any one player under Bloom, so far, but we don't need to wait for the first one to expect it will happen.

[Larry Cook]

I am pleasantly surprised by how well Hang’em Chaim is doing.

 

Year 1 - Covid, injuries, minor leagues got a bit of a talent influx and most important a spending reset.

 

Year 2 - more influx of talent in the minor leagues and two games from the World Series.

 

Yes, for year 3 we need more bullpen help, a right fielder and another utility infielder, but I like what he did before the lockout and I expect to see 3-4 prospects contribute this year in Boston.

 

Let’s see what he does over the next four weeks or so.

[Old Red]

No, you haven't disputed that. You are correct, but you seem to act like the first 2.5 winters of Bloom's reign is what we are stuck with.

 

Nobody doubts the fact that we have not spent large on any one player under Bloom, so far, but we don't need to wait for the first one to expect it will happen.

 

The only point I am TRYING to get across is just because Henry has spent big in the past doesn’t mean he will continue to do so. I’m not saying he will, and I’m not saying he won’t, but just raising the possibility, and just saying at the moment we seem to be in a holding patten, which could change at any time, and I hope it does. I also would like to see it start with Bogey, who wants to stay, but also wants more money, and also Raffy, and then go from there. To me we don’t need a high priced SS just one like a younger Iggy type who can play D if Bogey is extended, and moved to another position.

[moonslav59]

The only point I am TRYING to get across is just because Henry has spent big in the past doesn’t mean he will continue to do so. I’m not saying he will, and I’m not saying he won’t, but just raising the possibility, and just saying at the moment we seem to be in a holding patten, which could change at any time, and I hope it does. I also would like to see it start with Bogey, who wants to stay, but also wants more money, and also Raffy, and then go from there. To me we don’t need a high priced SS just one like a younger Iggy type who can play D if Bogey is extended, and moved to another position.

 

It seems to me, and I could be wrong, is that your position has been more like I'll believe it when I see Bloom spend big and not a second before.

 

I'm in agreement on not spending big on a SS.

 

I had hoped we got better pitching and maybe a 2Bman, but getting Suzuki and McHugh might be good enough.

[Old Red]

It seems to me, and I could be wrong, is that your position has been more like I'll believe it when I see Bloom spend big and not a second before.

 

I'm in agreement on not spending big on a SS.

 

I had hoped we got better pitching and maybe a 2Bman, but getting Suzuki and McHugh might be good enough.

 

You’re right about my position on the spending at least for this year. Next year money will have to be spent if Bogey, JD, and Evol are gone, and Price comes off the books, and lots of money should be there to spend.

 

I agree on the rest especially about getting better pitching.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It seems to me, and I could be wrong, is that your position has been more like I'll believe it when I see Bloom spend big and not a second before.

 

 

This also describes me and many other Sox fans. I'm also with Red and others in that I'm concerned with what Bloom has actually spent -- not where the total payroll ranks because of contracts Boston is still obliged to pay from before he got here.

 

But I'm reasonable. I'm not urging the Red Sox to pay big bucks longterm to whoever the top free agents are just to keep up with the big spenders. I just want to see Bloom sign one guy -- ONE -- for market money and years, so that we know our Sox are using all avenues to improve. Bargain bin and prospects are important, but so is top talent.

 

Seriously, I'd be happy if Bloom just extended Devers or Bogaerts -- just to see if these current John Henry Red Sox will still pay market value.

[Bellhorn04]

Dodgers Ain't Afraid of No Tax

 

They're re-signing Kershaw, and making a "strong push" for Freddie Freeman...

[Old Red]

This also describes me and many other Sox fans. I'm also with Red and others in that I'm concerned with what Bloom has actually spent -- not where the total payroll ranks because of contracts Boston is still obliged to pay from before he got here.

 

But I'm reasonable. I'm not urging the Red Sox to pay big bucks longterm to whoever the top free agents are just to keep up with the big spenders. I just want to see Bloom sign one guy -- ONE -- for market money and years, so that we know our Sox are using all avenues to improve. Bargain bin and prospects are important, but so is top talent.

 

Seriously, I'd be happy if Bloom just extended Devers or Bogaerts -- just to see if these current John Henry Red Sox will still pay market value.

 

Well said, and like I’ve been saying take care of your own guys first.

[Bellhorn04]

It's been a rebuild 2-3 years. I won't use the "C" word for fear of setting off some sensitive posters.

 

2019 - among pre-season favorites to win it all

2020 - brutal 60 games

2021 - 6th game of ALCS

 

That's what you're calling the "C" word and the "rebuild".

[notin]

2019 - among pre-season favorites to win it all

2020 - brutal 60 games

2021 - 6th game of ALCS

 

That's what you're calling the "C" word and the "rebuild".

 

 

Oh the Sox have definitely been rebuilding, just not at the MLB level…

[moonslav59]

This also describes me and many other Sox fans. I'm also with Red and others in that I'm concerned with what Bloom has actually spent -- not where the total payroll ranks because of contracts Boston is still obliged to pay from before he got here.

 

But I'm reasonable. I'm not urging the Red Sox to pay big bucks longterm to whoever the top free agents are just to keep up with the big spenders. I just want to see Bloom sign one guy -- ONE -- for market money and years, so that we know our Sox are using all avenues to improve. Bargain bin and prospects are important, but so is top talent.

 

Seriously, I'd be happy if Bloom just extended Devers or Bogaerts -- just to see if these current John Henry Red Sox will still pay market value.

 

I've shared my concerns on Bloom's past signings, too. It's hard to sugar coat the list. Then, if you add trades that brought back salary, what little sweetness was there gets overpowered by concern or bitterness.

 

I asked a question on another thread that I feel hits home: name one big FA signing, this winter, that you wish Bloom had made. To me, every big signing has been a big overpay and would have severely limited filling out other big holes in our roster. Again, we have less holes, this winter, than last winter, but we still had enough that spending large on one likely takes away from the others, significantly.

 

I'm not happy with his signings, so far. Just about everyone knows my opinion on the JBJ trade, but I wasn't happy with Richards, Perez and Marwin, last year and questioned the dollar amount spent on Kike and Ottavino (via trade). It all worked out, last season, thanks in large part to guys like Kike, Renfroe, Whitlock and the mid season additions.

 

I'm cutting Bloom a lot of slack due to the fact that he was handed a very shallow roster and farm with precious few dollars to improve the team, and we quickly jumped back to competitiveness much sooner than I expected.

 

Here's a list of Bloom's biggest FA signings, to date:

2020-2022

$14M/2 Kike

$10M/1 Richards

$10M/1 or $19M/2 or $32M/3 Paxton

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Perez '20

$5M/1 Perez '21

$5M/1 R Hill

$4.3M/1 Pillar

$3.1M/1 + arb Renfroe

$3M/1 Moreland

$3M/1 Marwin

$3M/1 Peraza

$3M/2 Sawamura

$2.1M/1 + arb Andriese

 

Extensions & Team Options Taken:

$145M/5 Sale ('20-'24)

$120M/6 Bogey ('20-'25)

$19M/2 Barnes ('22-'24)

$7M/1 Vaz

 

Trades for Large Contracts (remaining salary/yrs):

$21.5M/2 JBJ (with 2 Binales & Hamilton)

$8.9M/1 Ottavino (with Frank German)

 

I'm not sure anyone can look at this spending and feel great about it, but the fact is, Bloom has built up the 40 man roster and farm to very respectable positions.

 

If you look at the players that saw playing time in 2020, it's hard to fault Bloom too harshly for this one area.

 

2020- only a 60 game season!

Rank in PAs on 2020 team

7 Chavis

8 Pillar

9 Peraza

10 Dalbec

11 Plawecki

12 Arauz

13 Moreland

14 T-W Lin

17 Munoz

18 Puello

(Less than 10 PAs): Grullon, Lucroy

 

Rank in IP

1. Perez

3. Weber

4. Valdez

5. Mazza

6. Godley

7. Brewer

8. Brasier

10. Springs

11. Brice

13. Osich

14. Covey

15. Kickham

16. Stock

17. Walden

18. Hart

20. Hembree

21. Hall

23. Triggs

(Under 5 IP): Lever, Tapia

 

That's like 25-30 scrubs that filled up the bottom 20 slots or so on the 40 man roster.

 

Respectable players numbered 8-12.

 

Devers, Bogey, JD, Beni, Verdugo, JBJ, Eovaldi and Barnes

 

Moreland, Dalbec, Houck, Brasier (Sale on IL)

 

We've come a long way, and not just on the 40 man!

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2019 - among pre-season favorites to win it all

2020 - brutal 60 games

2021 - 6th game of ALCS

 

That's what you're calling the "C" word and the "rebuild".

 

The rebuild began in 2019, despite pre-season promise. We made several trades that summer. Are you denying it began, then?

 

2020 was a cluster F.

 

If you want to count preseason promise, then count it for 2021, too. That was also a clear "rebuild year" that worked out much better than almost anyone expected.

 

Even this winter could be viewed as a final or near final step of completing the rebuild, which happened much more quickly than I expected. I've admitted my timetable was way off.

 

I felt like the system was stacked against rebuilding a farm, this quickly with all the poor draft picks and limited Int'l FA bonus pools we've had in the past 3-5 years (well, pre 2021 draft) and the limited budget Bloom was expected to be given.

 

Last year, we had 8-10 major holes to fill on the 26 man roster. This year, it's maybe 5-7. This may be viewed as not enough to be called a rebuild, but it's still a significant amount of slots to be filled and again, with apparent limited funding.

 

How can anyone look at the 2020 roster- top to bottom and think there was no rebuild needed? No "C" in place?

[Bellhorn04]

The rebuild began in 2019, despite pre-season promise. We made several trades that summer. Are you denying it began, then?

 

2020 was a cluster F.

 

If you want to count preseason promise, then count it for 2021, too. That was also a clear "rebuild year" that worked out much better than almost anyone expected.

 

Even this winter could be viewed as a final or near final step of completing the rebuild, which happened much more quickly than I expected. I've admitted my timetable was way off.

 

I felt like the system was stacked against rebuilding a farm, this quickly with all the poor draft picks and limited Int'l FA bonus pools we've had in the past 3-5 years (well, pre 2021 draft) and the limited budget Bloom was expected to be given.

 

Last year, we had 8-10 major holes to fill on the 26 man roster. This year, it's maybe 5-7. This may be viewed as not enough to be called a rebuild, but it's still a significant amount of slots to be filled and again, with apparent limited funding.

 

How can anyone look at the 2020 roster- top to bottom and think there was no rebuild needed? No "C" in place?

 

Of course 2020 was a cluster F. No Sale, no E-Rod, no Cora, and a pandemic-shortened season. It was a perfect year to not try very hard. We got a sweet draft pick out of it.

 

One bad 60 game season is not a cliff, no matter how many times you say it.

 

Rebuilding is pretty much an ongoing, necessary process now anyway. Teams don't stay the same for long.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox franchise has been on a wild roller coaster ride since about 2009.

 

Singling out 2020 as the "cliff year" makes no sense. It was just one of the dips in the ride.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Of course 2020 was a cluster F.

 

... and in candid GM-speak, Bloom told us it was going to be. I'm still trembling after one glance at Moon's list of '20 pitchers, and we shouldn't forget who assembled it. But it puts into perspective how unGodley the '21 staff was in comparison; Whitlock was really Bloom's find of the century, the one strand of pasta that stuck on the wall, when all the other pieces the year before splat on the floor.

[Bellhorn04]

... and in candid GM-speak, Bloom told us it was going to be. I'm still trembling after one glance at Moon's list of '20 pitchers, and we shouldn't forget who assembled it. But it puts into perspective how unGodley the '21 staff was in comparison; Whitlock was really Bloom's find of the century, the one strand of pasta that stuck on the wall, when all the other pieces the year before splat on the floor.

 

It was former Red Sox scout Bob Hamelin who did all the legwork on Whitlock, apparently. Nonetheless, Bloom gets credit for taking good advice.

[Larry Cook]

It was former Red Sox scout Bob Hamelin who did all the legwork on Whitlock, apparently. Nonetheless, Bloom gets credit for taking good advice.

 

What happened to bob? Why is he a former scout?

[notin]

It was former Red Sox scout Bob Hamelin who did all the legwork on Whitlock, apparently. Nonetheless, Bloom gets credit for taking good advice.

 

And hiring/keeping the right people.

 

Ultimately these moves are always the GMs call. It’s like when some didn’t think Theo should get any credit for signing Ortiz, because Manny(?) recommended. Like scouts, players (and forum posters!) also pass on tons of advice on potential moves. But it’s the GM who decides to actually make the move and it’s the GM who gets the blame if it doesn’t work out. Not the scouts. And certainly not the players.

 

Forum posters ironically sometimes do, but only within the confines of their forum…

[Bellhorn04]

What happened to bob? Why is he a former scout?

 

He got terminated, why I don't know. There was a good article about his scouting of Whitlock in the Globe.

[Larry Cook]

He got terminated, why I don't know. There was a good article about his scouting of Whitlock in the Globe.

 

Poor bob! That is terrible news. I wish him the best going forward.

[moonslav59]

Of course 2020 was a cluster F. No Sale, no E-Rod, no Cora, and a pandemic-shortened season. It was a perfect year to not try very hard. We got a sweet draft pick out of it.

 

One bad 60 game season is not a cliff, no matter how many times you say it.

 

Rebuilding is pretty much an ongoing, necessary process now anyway. Teams don't stay the same for long.

 

I didn't say it.

 

I admitted the time frame for the rebuild or whatever you want to call it was much shorter than I expected, but 2020 was much worse than I thought it would ever get.

 

The term "rebuild" was an understatement for 2020.

 

And, yes, rebuilding is an ongoing process, and one could view needing to fill 5-7 slots, like this winter, as within the "norm" and not still part of the rebuild to favorite or near favorite status. I'm fine with thinking the rebuild is over.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox franchise has been on a wild roller coaster ride since about 2009.

 

Singling out 2020 as the "cliff year" makes no sense. It was just one of the dips in the ride.

 

You are the one saying the word.

 

Nobody said 2020 was the only year of futility under Henry's watch. There was equally extreme words used back when Ben was the GM.

 

Yes, many of us expected "it" to last for more than half of 2019 and up to the point where the team surprised nearly everyone in 2021.

 

Look, I'm fine with admitting 1.5 years is not a "cliff," there I said it, and I did expect it to last much longer. I also did not expect it to start during the 2019 season, so I was wrong on many fronts, including never expecting our playing roster to ever look as bad as it did in 2020.

 

I had low hopes for 2022, and was wrong there, too.

 

I have praised DD for drafting better than expected for the slots he had to pick with, but the highest pick the Sox have ever had gave the farm a big boost, too. I'm not sure anyone foresaw us having 2 top 30 prospects (3 if you want to count Yorke), this quickly. I applaud DD and Bloom for their work on the farm.

 

Our 40 man roster is much deeper than it was in 2020, and hardly any is due to free agency, as we've mostly seen just 1 year deals of low to moderate value.

 

I'm fine with saying the cliff never materialized as most of us envisioned. Not even close, except for just how bad we got- maybe.

[notin]

Poor bob! That is terrible news. I wish him the best going forward.

 

Well you can bet in every interview he has from now on, at some point he will say “I’m the guy who recommended Garret Whitlock to Boston”

 

Even if it’s not a relevant answer. “Can I get you some water, Bob?” “I’m the guy who recommended Garret Whitlock to Boston..”