A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

Agree, and this is why the JBJ trade didn’t make sense prospects, or not. A RH bat would have been a bigger need.

 

I do think defense was a huge need for last year’s team. Not so sure a right handed bat in a lineup that already has at least 5 RHH as full time starters (E Hernandez, Bogaerts, Martinez, Vasquez, and Dalbec) is that big of a need.

[moonslav59]

I do think defense was a huge need for last year’s team. Not so sure a right handed bat in a lineup that already has at least 5 RHH as full time starters (E Hernandez, Bogaerts, Martinez, Vasquez, and Dalbec) is that big of a need.

 

It's not a big need, but having 3 lefty OF'ers, with the best one having pretty bad splits and knowing 2 will likely play everyday, makes facing LHPs kind of unnecessarily awkward.

[moonslav59]

I do think defense was a huge need for last year’s team. Not so sure a right handed bat in a lineup that already has at least 5 RHH as full time starters (E Hernandez, Bogaerts, Martinez, Vasquez, and Dalbec) is that big of a need.

 

I do agree that the defense was one of our biggest weaknesses, if not #1, and Renfroe's arm hid a lot of his short-comings on defense.

 

When we signed Renfroe, I thought Verdugo would be in RF and Renfroe in left. Yes, this "wastes" his arm, but it looks like we hated his D anyway.

 

My thought was geared towards the multitude of RH'd hitting ace defenders out there, some from the waiver wire, who hit better than JBJ, last year.

 

I know; I know, JBJ is due for a positive regression and Renfroe was due for a negative one. I'd be curious who else was out there in a Renfroe trade offer. (If nobody, couldn't we have just non-tendered him and signed someone like Pillar?

[notin]

When the Sox signed Renfroe, I assumed he was going to platoon with Benintendi…

[moonslav59]

Steve Adams from MLBTR...

 

Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously.

 

Matt Barnes’ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.

[moonslav59]

When the Sox signed Renfroe, I assumed he was going to platoon with Benintendi…

 

In LF, correct?

[Old Red]

It's not a big need, but having 3 lefty OF'ers, with the best one having pretty bad splits and knowing 2 will likely play everyday, makes facing LHPs kind of unnecessarily awkward.

 

Agreed this is what we were talking about about was a RH bat for the outfield, and not what the rest of the team had. Improving the D was needed all over.

[Bellhorn04]

My thought was geared towards the multitude of RH'd hitting ace defenders out there, some from the waiver wire, who hit better than JBJ, last year.

 

I know; I know, JBJ is due for a positive regression and Renfroe was due for a negative one. I'd be curious who else was out there in a Renfroe trade offer. (If nobody, couldn't we have just non-tendered him and signed someone like Pillar?

 

Fair question. But have you looked at Pillar's defensive metrics? Looks like they have slipped a lot and Bradley is definitely better.

 

That said, there seems to be no getting around the idea that Bloom must really like those prospects...

[Old Red]

Fair question. But have you looked at Pillar's defensive metrics? Looks like they have slipped a lot and Bradley is definitely better.

 

That said, there seems to be no getting around the idea that Bloom must really like those prospects...

 

Maybe, but prospects aren’t going to help the 2022 team if at all, and there is also a good possibility that JBJ doesn’t help much either with the bat.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but prospects aren’t going to help the 2022 team if at all, and there is also a good possibility that JBJ doesn’t help much either with the bat.

 

No, they're probably not going to help the 2022 team. I think that's a given.

 

But it's Bloom's job to think of 2022 and beyond 2022 at the same time.

[Old Red]

No, they're probably not going to help the 2022 team. I think that's a given.

 

But it's Bloom's job to think of 2022 and beyond 2022 at the same time.

 

I get that, and there are lots of decisions to be made starting with Bogey, and Raffy, and then replacing JD, Evol, and Kike at the very least just for this year, and next.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that, and there are lots of decisions to be made starting with Bogey, and Raffy, and then replacing JD, Evol, and Kike at the very least just for this year, and next.

 

Yep. None of that is going to be easy.

[notin]

Maybe, but prospects aren’t going to help the 2022 team if at all, and there is also a good possibility that JBJ doesn’t help much either with the bat.

 

I’m not expecting much offense from JBJ. But, hey, someone has to bat ninth…

[moonslav59]

Fair question. But have you looked at Pillar's defensive metrics? Looks like they have slipped a lot and Bradley is definitely better.

 

That said, there seems to be no getting around the idea that Bloom must really like those prospects...

 

JBJ's defensive metrics have slipped, too. Besides, I did not mean Pillar, specifically, but someone like him are close to a dime-a-dozen.

 

CF Defensive Metrics

 

2013-2015>2016-2018>2019>2021

UZR/150

JBJ 11.3>7.4>4.3

Pillar 7.4>8.0> -2.0

Dyson 13.0>12.9> 4.1

Hamilton 11.7>10.4> 15.8

Marisnick 12.0> 4.6> -7.1

Kiermaier 16.0> 15.4> 14.1

 

DRS/Innings

JBJ 17/1319> 29/3717> 14/2440> (slipping but still solid)

Pillar 17/1348> 33/3809> -15/1775 (bad slip)

Dyson 20/1501> 26/1568> 7/1002 (too old, now)

Hamilton 24/2220> 38/3356> 11/1162 (hit tool is the worst)

Marisnick 23/1273> 24/1753> 5/1101 (slipping, too)

Kiermaier 39/1474/> 58/2449> 35/2290 (apparently, on the block)

 

[moonslav59]

I’m not expecting much offense from JBJ. But, hey, someone has to bat ninth…

 

Yes...

 

Vaz.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ's defensive metrics have slipped, too. Besides, I did not mean Pillar, specifically, but someone like him are close to a dime-a-dozen.

 

Aargh...not that dime-a-dozen thing again.

[moonslav59]

Aargh...not that dime-a-dozen thing again.

 

Okay, Billy Hamilton costs 15 cents. He even hit .620 in 2021, but yes, .568 in his previous 500 or so PAs and .598 in his last 1000. (Jackie is at .665 in his last 1200 PAs.)

 

I'm not trying to tout Hamilton's offense: he may be the worst in MLB at the plate, but when we are talking about playing 2 OF'ers vs a LHP, here are the career splits:

 

.674 Verdugo

.674 JBJ (.717 v RHPs)

.603 Hamilton (.623 v RHPs)

 

It's not a huge loss on offense v RHPs. Now, look at 2021...

 

2021

.760 Hamilton

.554 Verdugo

.438 Duran

.528 JBJ (He did kill lefties in 2020- 69 PAs at .900)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Aargh...not that dime-a-dozen thing again.

 

Will any of these guys make even half of what JBJ will be paid in the next 1-2 years?

 

Current MLB Free Agents:

 

Brett Gardner (LHB)

Kevin Pillar

Odubel Herrera (LHB)

Delino DeShields

Billy Hamilton

Roman Quinn

Ender Inciarte (LHB)

Cameron Maybin

Travis Jankowski (LHP)

Jake Marisnick

Juan Lagares

 

UZR/150 last 3 years

CF

15.8 Hamilton

15.2 Kike

14.1 Kiermaier (LHB with negative trade value on BTV)

4.3 JBJ

1.5 Inciarte

0.4 R Quinn

0.1 DeShields

-2.0 Pillar

-2.4 Verdugo

-4.6 Lagares

-5.4 Herrera

-7.1 Marisnick

 

RF

11.0 Pillar

3.1 Renfroe

 

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom bought prospects. It seems to be part of his MO.

 

We all know JBJ is unlikely to earn what we're going to be paying him. Let's just stipulate to that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

.528 JBJ (He did kill lefties in 2020- 69 PAs at .900)

 

 

 

 

.528 in new uni in new parks vs. new pitchers... .900 in old uni, parks, and pitchers.

 

Some posters might refuse to consider adjustment factors, but does anyone really think a career professional completely forgot how to hit in one year?

 

Maybe Bloom and Cora don't think Jackie is absolutely done at age 32... maybe to them, familiarity breeds content.

[Old Red]

.528 in new uni in new parks vs. new pitchers... .900 in old uni, parks, and pitchers.

 

Some posters might refuse to consider adjustment factors, but does anyone really think a career professional completely forgot how to hit in one year?

 

Maybe Bloom and Cora don't think Jackie is absolutely done at age 32... maybe to them, familiarity breeds content.

 

JBJ has hit below 250 6 times out of his 9 years in the majors, and 3 of those years were below 200, so it’s not like he was a Silver Slugger candidate before he got traded.

[dgalehouse]

Folks always say that a change of scenery could help a player. But the reverse is also true. For whatever reason, the change in scenery hurt JBJ. I would bet the farm ( if I actually had a farm ) that JBJ will show a significant improvement now that he is back " home." That is not to say that he will become a Tony Gwynn , but expect much improved offense from him this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JBJ has hit below 250 6 times out of his 9 years in the majors, and 3 of those years were below 200, so it’s not like he was a Silver Slugger candidate before he got traded.

 

There's a good chance some in the organization knew that when he was reacquired. No one here has ever said Bradley's even a good hitter, just that he's a big league centerfielder.

 

Career bWAR since 2013, 800 games in CF: 1. Trout, 2. Cain, 3. Jackie Bradley Junior.

 

To be fair, Trout rates almost twice as good as Cain, who rates twice as good as JBJ; also, Kiermaier just missed the minimum. Trout 65.1, Cain 35, Kiermaier 30.4, JBJ 17.6, Pillar 16.5, Kike 15.4 (combined total at all his positions), Hamilton 10.4, Michael Taylor 6.1.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Folks always say that a change of scenery could help a player. But the reverse is also true. For whatever reason, the change in scenery hurt JBJ. I would bet the farm ( if I actually had a farm ) that JBJ will show a significant improvement now that he is back " home." That is not to say that he will become a Tony Gwynn , but expect much improved offense from him this year.

 

Sometimes the grass is greener is just shiny paint on artificial turf.

 

I wish I had said that in the 80s (I may have, but can't remember much of that decade).

[moonslav59]

.528 in new uni in new parks vs. new pitchers... .900 in old uni, parks, and pitchers.

 

Some posters might refuse to consider adjustment factors, but does anyone really think a career professional completely forgot how to hit in one year?

 

Maybe Bloom and Cora don't think Jackie is absolutely done at age 32... maybe to them, familiarity breeds content.

 

What about pitchers needing to adjust to a new hitter?

[moonslav59]

JBJ has hit below 250 6 times out of his 9 years in the majors, and 3 of those years were below 200, so it’s not like he was a Silver Slugger candidate before he got traded.

 

Exactly. What puzzles me even more is that we did not want to pay him what MIL ended up offering him. Then, after his worst season ever, suddenly he's worth it. Looking at the contract makes it look even worse:

 

The Brewers paid just $6.5M for 2021. When you count the $8M buy out, his remaining salary is...

 

$17.5M/1 (turning down the 2023 option)

or

$21.5M/2 (assuming they take the $12M 2023 option)

 

I know Renfroe was due to et arb raises, but we didn't have to go to arb with him- like the Rays did after 2020.

 

The fact that he hits lefty, like Verdugo and Duran makes it look like, dare I say again, a real "head-scratcher."

[Bellhorn04]

The fact that he hits lefty, like Verdugo and Duran makes it look like, dare I say again, a real "head-scratcher."

 

It's reaching the point you're scratching a dead horse's head.

 

[moonslav59]

It's reaching the point you're scratching a dead horse's head.

 

 

Good one!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What about pitchers needing to adjust to a new hitter?

 

Come on, Moon - you know pitchers are always ahead of hitters this time of year... if only there was a this time this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's reaching the point you're scratching a dead horse's head.

 

 

But he is going to give Johny that part in the new war movie...