A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Might we have gotten a better value for the money we are spending on Bradley?

 

Depends on how the 2 prospects we got do and their "value."

[Bellhorn04]

Might we have gotten a better value for the money we are spending on Bradley?

 

Yes, but what Bloom actually paid for was the two prospects that came along with Bradley. It's a relatively inexpensive way to get decent prospects.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but what Bloom actually paid for was the two prospects that came along with Bradley. It's a relatively inexpensive way to get decent prospects.

 

I think it was rather expensive, but I guess it's all about just how good these prospects are.

[harmony]

I think it was rather expensive, but I guess it's all about just how good these prospects are.

FanGraphs Prospects Report assigns Alex Binelas and David Hamilton a modest Future Value of 40+ each after Binelas was drafted in the 35th round in 2018 and Hamilton in the eighth round in 2019.

 

SoxProspects rank Binelas 18th and Hamilton 26th in the Red Sox farm system. MLB Prospect Watch ranks Binelas 16th in the system while Hamiton fails to make the Top 30.

 

Analytics somewhere have assigned a dollar value.

Edited December 17, 2021 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

There is a much better chance of JBJ having a good year than these prospects ever amounting to anything.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs Prospects Report assigns Alex Binelas and David Hamilton a modest Future Value of 40+ each after Binelas was drafted in the 35th round in 2018 and Hamilton in the eighth round in 2019.

 

SoxProspects rank Binelas 18th and Hamilton 26th in the Red Sox farm system. MLB Prospect Watch ranks Binelas 16th in the system while Hamiton fails to make the Top 30.

 

Analytics somewhere have assigned a dollar value.

 

I doubt anyone places a value even close to what JBJ is making, so I think Bloom is thinking JBJ will give us some value and these two prospects make up the difference. Losing Renfroe's contract and future arb cost apparently swings the balance to our side... or not.

[moonslav59]

There is a much better chance of JBJ having a good year than these prospects ever amounting to anything.

 

As Frank Zappa would sing...

 

"I figure the odds be 50-50."

 

(JBJ vs the two prospects chances combined)

[oldtimer]

I doubt anyone places a value even close to what JBJ is making, so I think Bloom is thinking JBJ will give us some value and these two prospects make up the difference. Losing Renfroe's contract and future arb cost apparently swings the balance to our side... or not.

 

All in all an iffy proposition. Bloom is not stupid, so there must be something here we don't see.

[Bellhorn04]

All in all an iffy proposition. Bloom is not stupid, so there must be something here we don't see.

 

I don't think it's that complicated. Bloom sees more potential in these prospects than their ratings would indicate.

[notin]

There is a much better chance of JBJ having a good year than these prospects ever amounting to anything.

 

This is true. I mean JBJ is already in the majors, which really helps his case…

[Bellhorn04]

This is true. I mean JBJ is already in the majors, which really helps his case…

 

Plus most prospects don't make it. But some do. And thereby lies a tale, as Shakespeare put it.

 

I've seen Bloom make enough good calls to think he is a decent talent evaluator. Pivetta, Whitlock, Kike, Renfroe...all these guys outperformed the initial expectations, which were pretty darn low...

[notin]

Plus most prospects don't make it. But some do. And thereby lies a tale, as Shakespeare put it.

 

I've seen Bloom make enough good calls to think he is a decent talent evaluator. Pivetta, Whitlock, Kike, Renfroe...all these guys outperformed the initial expectations, which were pretty darn low...

 

 

Even if they don’t make it, it’s not necessarily a bad deal. A little less than oneyear ago, JBJ was a good enough player to get the contract he received from Milwaukee and Renfroe was non-tendered by Tampa…

[Bellhorn04]

Even if they don’t make it, it’s not necessarily a bad deal. A little less than oneyear ago, JBJ was a good enough player to get the contract he received from Milwaukee and Renfroe was non-tendered by Tampa…

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

All in all an iffy proposition. Bloom is not stupid, so there must be something here we don't see.

 

Maybe he thinks these prospects are better than their rankings indicate.

 

He does have a good track record acquiring young players that end uo doing very well.

[a700hitter]

Matt Andriese has left the country signing to play in Japan. Luckily for him that the Japanese fans don’t boo.

[Tedballgame]

Matt Andriese has left the country signing to play in Japan. Luckily for him that the Japanese fans don’t boo.

 

That could change when they see him pitch.

[moonslav59]

That could change when they see him pitch.

 

He might do very well in Japan.

[moonslav59]

Every year I get all optimistic over replacing mostly bad numbers with hopeful additions, and yet the following year just produces a whole new set of replaceable players with similar numbers and IP & PAs. I don't expect 2022 to be much different, but I remain hopeful we can do better with next winter's list.

 

Here is what we are replacing, and I'm including some players still in our system, but who are expected not to play or to play just in mop up situations:

 

IP/ERA

158/4.74 ERod

137/4.87 Richards

114/4.74 Perez

62.0/4.21 Ottavino

37.1/6.03 Andriese

25.0/3.60 Robles

24.1/3.70 Rios

20.0/4.95 Workman

13.2/6.59 Brice

30+/XXX Weber, Peacock, Feliz, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Brennen, Espinal...

That's over 600 IP! (Over 43% of the 2021 team IP total!!!) Plus, maybe less IP by Valdez (40).

 

Replaced by...

Hill (100+?)

Wacha (100+?)

Paxton (50+?)

TBA RP (60+?)

TBA RP (60+?)

We might get 350-400 from this group plus more IP from...

Whitlock (73), Houck (69), Sale (43), Barnes (55), Taylor (48), DHern (40), Davis (17), Brasier (12), Seabold (3), Bazardo (3), Crawford (2), Winckowski, Feltman (0)

 

PA/OPS

572/.816 Renfroe

271/.567 Marwin

168/.957 Schwarber

136/.497 Cordero

127/.597 Santana

82/.549 Chavis

75/.643 Arauz

64/.915 Iggy

48/.843 Shaw

16/.522 Lopez

11/.182 Munoz

7/1.262 Motter

While losing Renfroe, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw (852 PAs combined) looks very bad, there are also 725 PAs of scrubs combined that bring the overall numbers down to pretty close to mediocrity. (This is clearly the more difficult set of numbers to replace)

 

Replaced by...

JBJ (250+)

TBA (450+) Suzuki?

More PAs by...

Bogey (603), Kike (585), Dalbec (453), Arroyo (181), Duran (112), Casas (0)

 

I'm cautiously optimistic we can improve on 2021's overall numbers with 3 more solid additions: OF/2B, RP & RP.

 

[moonslav59]

Player Salaries down...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/2021-leaguewide-player-payroll-reportedly-down-4-relative-to-2019.html

[Nick]

Player Salaries down...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/2021-leaguewide-player-payroll-reportedly-down-4-relative-to-2019.html

 

It's difficult to have a meaningful dialogue without knowing the revenue side of the equation.

 

Padres went from $104M in 2019 to $184M in 2021. What happened? Holding out in 2019 and pocketing big chunk of money or did the owner go nuts, convinced he can win it all in 2021?

[Hugh2]

Player Salaries down...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/2021-leaguewide-player-payroll-reportedly-down-4-relative-to-2019.html

 

It's worth noting that while the average salary is down, top-tier salaries are inflating as high as ever. It just seems that no one else is getting paid.

[moonslav59]

It's worth noting that while the average salary is down, top-tier salaries are inflating as high as ever. It just seems that no one else is getting paid.

 

Not surprising.

 

Players need to stick together and demand a stiff raise for min wage and pre-arb salary raises.

[Tedballgame]

He might do very well in Japan.

 

I doubt it. Japanese baseball is a step below the major leagues but its still pretty good. Andriese sucks no matter where he is pitching.

[moonslav59]

I doubt it. Japanese baseball is a step below the major leagues but its still pretty good. Andriese sucks no matter where he is pitching.

 

Well, we did sign Andriese to an AAV of $2.1M and Sawamura to an AVV of $1.5M.

 

Maybe his 4.55 ERA over his first 358 IP (over 4 seasons) was enough to impress Bloom. Certainly, his last 2 years should not have impressed anyone, but you know how most RP'ers are up and down.

 

I'm thinking the odds favor him doing better in Japan.

Edited December 24, 2021 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

I doubt it. Japanese baseball is a step below the major leagues but its still pretty good. Andriese sucks no matter where he is pitching.

 

That last little step makes a huge difference. I wouldn’t bet against him being a serviceable player in Japan.

[moonslav59]

Merry

Christmas!

[notin]

I doubt it. Japanese baseball is a step below the major leagues but its still pretty good. Andriese sucks no matter where he is pitching.

 

Andriese has been in the major leagues since 2015. Despite not matching up with other MLB pitchers last season, he’s far and away as better pitcher than any of us who ever played have ever faced. Except msybe other major leaguers, of course…

[moonslav59]

Andriese has been in the major leagues since 2015. Despite not matching up with other MLB pitchers last season, he’s far and away as better pitcher than any of us who ever played have ever faced. Except msybe other major leaguers, of course…

 

It’s hard enough to predict how well journeymen RPers will do in any given year in MLB, but I have to think they have better odds in Japan, unless they have serious adjustment to culture problems.

[moonslav59]

Let’s hope the RPers we add this winter end up better than Andriese and Sawamura.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let’s hope the RPers we add this winter end up better than Andriese and Sawamura.

 

A guy like Joe Kelly makes sense: throws 100 mph, has AL East experience. It's unclear whether he'd want to leave his west coast again, but due to climate change, the northeast isn't really so bad in comparison weather-wise any more...