A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

harmony · January 2, 2022

Murphy does have 4 years left, and maybe just the last 2 arbs will be too costly for the A;s, but your point is a good one.

They do gain Casas which is a wash on pre-arb prospects, and catching prospects fail more often than 1B ones, IMO.

Maybe something like this, then...

Dalbec, Duran, Downs for Montas & Trivino.

(Now, we'd need a 1B placeholder for Casas.)

MLB Trade Rumors examines the trade value of Oakland reliever Lou Trivino:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/the-as-top-bullpen-trade-candidate.html

Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 4.21 and a WAR of 0.0 in 65 appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lou-trivino/15043/stats?position=P

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

MLB Trade Rumors examines the trade value of Oakland reliever Lou Trivino:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/the-as-top-bullpen-trade-candidate.html

Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 4.21 and a WAR of 0.0 in 65 appearances:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lou-trivino/15043/stats?position=P

So, you wouldn't want a zero WAR guy like Trivino on the M's?

(BTW, his bWAR was 1.2)

While a 4.1 BB/9 over the last 2 seasons is troubling, his 6.9H per 9 is very good. We paid Ottavino $8M to give us less innings than Trevino and have a 5.1 BB/9 and 8.0 H/9. (4.9 and 8.4 from 2020-2021)

harmony · January 3, 2022

So, you wouldn't want a zero WAR guy like Trivino on the M's?

(BTW, his bWAR was 1.2)

While a 4.1 BB/9 over the last 2 seasons is troubling, his 6.9H per 9 is very good. We paid Ottavino $8M to give us less innings than Trevino and have a 5.1 BB/9 and 8.0 H/9. (4.9 and 8.4 from 2020-2021)

The Seattle bullpen is fine without Lou Trivino:

RP Drew Steckenrider ® (2021 bWAR 2.5)

RP Casey Sadler ® (2021 bWAR 2.1)

RP Paul Sewald ® (2021 bWAR 1.6)

RP Diego Castillo ® (2021 bWAR 1.1)

RP Ken Giles ® (2019 bWAR 2.5)

RP Andres Munoz ®

RP Anthony Misiewicz (L)

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0

If anything, the Mariners might look to trade high on some relievers from a loaded bullpen.

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

The Seattle bullpen is fine without Lou Trivino:

RP Drew Steckenrider ® (2021 bWAR 2.5)
RP Casey Sadler ® (2021 bWAR 2.1)
RP Paul Sewald ® (2021 bWAR 1.6)
RP Diego Castillo ® (2021 bWAR 1.1)
RP Ken Giles ® (2019 bWAR 2.5)
RP Andres Munoz ®
RP Anthony Misiewicz (L)

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0

If anything, the Mariners might look to trade high on some relievers from a loaded bullpen.

I'm sure Seattle's GM would claim Trivino off waivers, if he got to them.

harmony · January 3, 2022

I'm sure Seattle's GM would claim Trivino off waivers, if he got to them.

Perhaps ... Lou Trivino is the same age Casey Sadler was when the Mariners claimed Sadler off waivers in September 2020. Sadler finished the 2021 season with 29 consecutive scoreless outings and an ERA of 0.67 in 42 appearances overall.

Trivino's projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million would be the second highest in the Seattle bullpen behind Ken Giles, who a year ago signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Mariners coming off Tommy John surgery.

FWIW in 25 career appearances against Seattle, Trivino has a 1-4 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 11 walks in 22 innings.

FWIW last August I left Oakland's RingCentral Coliseum after the ninth inning before Trivino posted a win against the San Diego Padres:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK202108040.shtml

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

Perhaps ... Lou Trivino is the same age Casey Sadler was when the Mariners claimed Sadler off waivers in September 2020. Sadler finished the 2021 season with 29 consecutive scoreless outings and an ERA of 0.67 in 42 appearances overall.

Trivino's projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million would be the second highest in the Seattle bullpen behind Ken Giles, who a year ago signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Mariners coming off Tommy John surgery.

FWIW in 25 career appearances against Seattle, Trivino has a 1-4 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 11 walks in 22 innings.

FWIW last August I left Oakland's RingCentral Coliseum after the ninth inning before Trivino posted a win against the San Diego Padres:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK202108040.shtml

Why is Trivino's Arb estimate, so high, if he's worth zero?

His stats will improve not having to face the might M's any more, too!

harmony · January 3, 2022

ZiPS has released its 2022 projections for the Red Sox:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

As it stands, now, with no more additions, could we see this sort of breakdown by PAs and IP?

PAs:

No Injury Plan

Catcher: 480 Vaz/170 Plawecki

1B: 500 Dalbec/150 Casas

2B: 300 Arroyo/350 Kike

3B: 650 Devers

SS: 650 Bogey

LF: 300 Verdugo/350 Duran

CF: 350 JBJ/300 Kike

RF: 250 JBJ/ 350 Verdugo/50 JD

DH: 600 JD/ 50 Dalbec

IP:

180 Eovaldi

160 Sale

160 Pivetta

120 Wacha

100 Hill

60 Paxton

50+ Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford+

80+ Whitlock

70+ Houck

60 Barnes

50 Brasier

50 Taylor

45 DHern

45 Davis

50 Sawamura

80+ Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman+

notin · January 3, 2022

As it stands, now, with no more additions, could we see this sort of breakdown by PAs and IP?

PAs:
No Injury Plan

Catcher: 480 Vaz/170 Plawecki
1B: 500 Dalbec/150 Casas
2B: 300 Arroyo/350 Kike
3B: 650 Devers
SS: 650 Bogey
LF: 300 Verdugo/350 Duran
CF: 350 JBJ/300 Kike
RF: 250 JBJ/ 350 Verdugo/50 JD
DH: 600 JD/ 50 Dalbec

IP:
180 Eovaldi
160 Sale
160 Pivetta
120 Wacha
100 Hill
60 Paxton
50+ Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford+

80+ Whitlock
70+ Houck
60 Barnes
50 Brasier
50 Taylor
45 DHern
45 Davis
50 Sawamura
80+ Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman+

While I doubt Bloom is done, one notable observation is 60 IP from Paxton. Coming off TJ, he isn’t likely to go more than 5IP per start, if even that much. I’d think getting even 30 IP from him is wishful thinking.

But I also think Seabold and company are likely to combine for more than 50, especially if the tan makes no more moves…

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

While I doubt Bloom is done, one notable observation is 60 IP from Paxton. Coming off TJ, he isn’t likely to go more than 5IP per start, if even that much. I’d think getting even 30 IP from him is wishful thinking.

But I also think Seabold and company are likely to combine for more than 50, especially if the tan makes no more moves…

True about Paxton.

I did put a plus after the 50 for the 7 through 10 starters.

I also think we add a RH'd bat to the OF and maybe a left-handed option at 1B as a bridge to Casas- something very cheap. I guess, if the add Suzuki, they could play Kike at 1B some games, but that seems like a waste of his defense.

Vaz has 65 career PAs at 1B, but he needs to hit better than 2021 to earn playing time there- like when Eovaldi is starting and Plawecki is his binky.

Edited January 3, 2022 by moonslav59

5GoldGlovesOF,75 · January 3, 2022

As it stands, now, with no more additions, could we see this sort of breakdown by PAs and IP?

PAs:
No Injury Plan

Catcher: 480 Vaz/170 Plawecki
1B: 500 Dalbec/150 Casas
2B: 300 Arroyo/350 Kike
3B: 650 Devers
SS: 650 Bogey
LF: 300 Verdugo/350 Duran
CF: 350 JBJ/300 Kike
RF: 250 JBJ/ 350 Verdugo/50 JD
DH: 600 JD/ 50 Dalbec

IP:
180 Eovaldi
160 Sale
160 Pivetta
120 Wacha
100 Hill
60 Paxton
50+ Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford+

80+ Whitlock
70+ Houck
60 Barnes
50 Brasier
50 Taylor
45 DHern
45 Davis
50 Sawamura
80+ Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman+

Not bad. The only change I'd make is on the pitching. It's unlikely the staff goes another season as injury-free as '21, so I'd take the under on every single one of the first six "veteran" starters, and take the over on the next five younger arms on the lists... though it wouldn't surprise if one of the two recovered elites -- Whitlock and Houck -- also has a setback at some point.

It's also about time for somebody unexpected to find it on the mound and jump a few levels for a half season of big time contributions. It seems like it always happens on teams everywhere else -- why not us? It could also be a prospect Bloom hasn't acquired yet...

ps. I'm also sensing a truncated schedule, so less innings may also just be the result of labor disputes. Ugh.

moonslav59 · January 3, 2022

Not bad. The only change I'd make is on the pitching. It's unlikely the staff goes another season as injury-free as '21, so I'd take the under on every single one of the first six "veteran" starters, and take the over on the next five younger arms on the lists... though it wouldn't surprise if one of the two recovered elites -- Whitlock and Houck -- also has a setback at some point.

It's also about time for somebody unexpected to find it on the mound and jump a few levels for a half season of big time contributions. It seems like it always happens on teams everywhere else -- why not us? It could also be a prospect Bloom hasn't acquired yet...

ps. I'm also sensing a truncated schedule, so less innings may also just be the result of labor disputes. Ugh.

It's hard to predict injuries, so I just went by overall good health by all. Once could argue, if Sale has 100% good health, he might hit 190-200 IP.

moonslav59 · January 5, 2022

Here is a look at the best OPS year our players have had in the last 3 seasons. (I added two consecutive partial seasons together, if the top one was a small sample.)

.959 Dalbec '20 (.819 '20-'21 in 545 PAs combined)

.939 Bogey '19

.939 JD M '19

.916 Devers '19

.844 Verdugo '20 (.827 '19-'20 in 598 PAs combined)

.814 JBJ '20 (.760 '19-'20 in 784 PAs combined)

.801 Vazquez '20 (.798 '19-'20 in 655 PAs combined)

.786 Kike '21 (was .806 in 2018)

.778 Plawecki '20-'21 in 262 PAs combined (.719 '19-'20 combined 436 PAs)

.769 Arroyo '21 (.762 '20-'21 in 235 PAs combined/ Career .690 in 486 PAs)

A better list might be ordered it like this:

.939 Bogey '19

.939 JD M '19

.916 Devers '19

.827 Verdugo '19-'20

.819 Dalbec '20-'21

.798 Vaz '19-'20

.786 Kike '21

.760 JBJ '19-'20

.747 Arroyo '19-'21

.719 Plawecki '19-'21

Edited January 5, 2022 by moonslav59

harmony · January 5, 2022

Why is Trivino's Arb estimate, so high, if he's worth zero?

It's the nature of the arbitation system.

The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to pay a $2.9 million annual salary to a backend reliever.

moonslav59 · January 5, 2022

It's the nature of the arbitation system.

The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to pay a $2.9 million annual salary to a backend reliever.

I disagree.

2nd year web players with unspectacular numbers are rarely “overpaid” in the context of most team payrolls.

harmony · January 6, 2022

I disagree.

2nd year web players with unspectacular numbers are rarely “overpaid” in the context of most team payrolls.

Lou Trivino could be an asset in a needy Red Sox bullpen but the 30-year-old righthander would slot only into the back end of the Seattle bullpen.

Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 WAR of 0.0 in 71 appearances while MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.9 million salary.

Even with significant regression from the overperforming Seattle bullpen, here are the 2022 projections for Mariner relievers:

Ken Giles $5.25 million, 0.3 WAR in 54 appearances (1.8 fWAR in 2019)

Diego Castillo $2.6 million, 0.6 WAR in 61 appearances (0.7 fWAR in 2021)

Drew Steckenrider $2.1 million, 0.1 WAR in 66 appearances (1.3 fWAR in 2021)

Paul Sewald $1.8 million, 0.5 WAR in 67 appearances (1.4 fWAR in 2021)

Casey Sadler, $1.3 million, 0.4 WAR in 60 appearances (1.1 fWAR in 2021)

Anthony Misiewicz, league minimum, 0.3 WAR in 58 appearances (0.5 fWAR in 2021)

Andres Munoz, $750,000, 0.5 WAR in 46 appearances

The Mariners would likely let Trivino, with his projected 0.0 WAR and $2.9 million salary, pass through waivers to a needier franchise.

moonslav59 · January 6, 2022

Lou Trivino could be an asset in a needy Red Sox bullpen but the 30-year-old righthander would slot only into the back end of the Seattle bullpen.

Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 WAR of 0.0 in 71 appearances while MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.9 million salary.

Even with significant regression from the overperforming Seattle bullpen, here are the 2022 projections for Mariner relievers:

Ken Giles $5.25 million, 0.3 WAR in 54 appearances (1.8 fWAR in 2019)
Diego Castillo $2.6 million, 0.6 WAR in 61 appearances (0.7 fWAR in 2021)
Drew Steckenrider $2.1 million, 0.1 WAR in 66 appearances (1.3 fWAR in 2021)
Paul Sewald $1.8 million, 0.5 WAR in 67 appearances (1.4 fWAR in 2021)
Casey Sadler, $1.3 million, 0.4 WAR in 60 appearances (1.1 fWAR in 2021)
Anthony Misiewicz, league minimum, 0.3 WAR in 58 appearances (0.5 fWAR in 2021)
Andres Munoz, $750,000, 0.5 WAR in 46 appearances

The Mariners would likely let Trivino, with his projected 0.0 WAR and $2.9 million salary, pass through waivers to a needier franchise.

I never said he’d be your closer or even 2-3 or 4 guys.

My point was your team would take him at his salary.

I also think you rely on steamer too much, but at least you use a consistent criteria for the most part.

harmony · January 6, 2022

I never said he’d be your closer or even 2-3 or 4 guys.

My point was your team would take him at his salary.

I also think you rely on steamer too much, but at least you use a consistent criteria for the most part.

Nick Wittgren, like Lou Trivino a 30-year-old righthanded reliever, cleared waivers despite a projected 2022 salary of $2.8 million and projected 2022 WAR of 0.2:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-wittgren/15594/stats?position=P

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-wittgren-cam-hill-elect-free-agency-guardians.html

Some team might claim Trivino off waivers but that club would not likely be the Seattle Mariners.

harmony · January 6, 2022

I never said he’d be your closer or even 2-3 or 4 guys.

My point was your team would take him at his salary.

I also think you rely on steamer too much, but at least you use a consistent criteria for the most part.

Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins examines Lou Trivino as a potential trade target:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/5/22867324/red-sox-trade-rumors-targets-athletics-lou-trivino

An A's blogger writes about Lou Trivino as a trade candidate:

https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

Edited January 6, 2022 by harmony

moonslav59 · January 6, 2022

Nick Wittgren, like Lou Trivino a 30-year-old righthanded reliever, cleared waivers despite a projected 2022 salary of $2.8 million and projected 2022 WAR of 0.2:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-wittgren/15594/stats?position=P

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-wittgren-cam-hill-elect-free-agency-guardians.html

Some team might claim Trivino off waivers but that club would not likely be the Seattle Mariners.

Only because a team with a worse record would get to pick him before the M's.

I am certain the M's would take him for nothing but his salary.

Most pens use 15-25 pitchers every season and 12-18 relief pitchers get significant IP'd.

You must think 6-8 are enough... or not?

mvp 78 · January 6, 2022

Not today Satan. I don't care about the bullpen of a team that can't get into the playoffs.

harmony · January 6, 2022

Not today Satan. I don't care about the bullpen of a team that can't get into the playoffs.

Someone cared enough to respond.

Have a blessed day.

harmony · January 6, 2022

Only because a team with a worse record would get to pick him before the M's.

I am certain the M's would take him for nothing but his salary.

Most pens use 15-25 pitchers every season and 12-18 relief pitchers get significant IP'd.

You must think 6-8 are enough... or not?

The Mariners, Red Sox and all other teams passed on Nick Wittgren, another 30-year-old righthander who since the start of the 2018 season had posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and and ERA+ of 119. Over the same period Lou Trivino posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an ERA+ of 113. Wittgren was projected with a 2022 salary of $2.8 million and a 0.2 WAR while Trivino is projected with a 2022 salary of $2.9 million and a 0.0 WAR.

Steamer projects 19 Seattle pitchers with 2022 WAR above Trivino's projected 0.0 WAR, including 11 certain relievers. The list of Seattle relievers projected to match Trivino's 0.0 WAR fills pages:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0

The A's blogger noted Trivino's "disastrous three week stretch in August that doomed the A’s playoff hopes."

https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

In a cold, dark offseason a baseball fan can become obsessed with a targeted player. Trivino might help a thin bullpen but many teams would pass on Trivino with his $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR.

Edited January 6, 2022 by harmony

moonslav59 · January 6, 2022

The Mariners, Red Sox and all other teams passed on Nick Wittgren, another 30-year-old righthander who since the start of the 2018 season had posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and and ERA+ of 119. Over the same period Lou Trivino posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an ERA+ of 113. Wittgren was projected with a 2022 salary of $2.8 million and a 0.2 WAR while Trivino is projected with a 2022 salary of $2.9 million and a 0.0 WAR.

Steamer projects 19 Seattle pitchers with 2022 WAR above Trivino's projected 0.0 WAR, including 11 certain relievers. The list of Seattle relievers projected to match Trivino's 0.0 WAR fills pages:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0

The A's blogger noted Trivino's "disastrous three week stretch in August that doomed the A’s playoff hopes."

https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

In a cold, dark offseason a baseball fan can become obsessed with a targeted player. Trivino might help a thin bullpen but many teams would pass on Trivino with his $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR.

I know you really value Steamer. I do not.

I still think almost every team, where $2.9M is not a problem, would take Trivino.

BTV gives him a plus 1.1 value, so they think he's worth $1.1M over his expected pay.

harmony · January 6, 2022

I know you really value Steamer. I do not.

I still think almost every team, where $2.9M is not a problem, would take Trivino.

BTV gives him a plus 1.1 value, so they think he's worth $1.1M over his expected pay.

The free agent market is filled with available relievers.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-0

So far the market has yielded minor league contracts to, among others, Darren O'Day (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 26 games) and Jacob Barnes (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 34 games). Milwaukee signed a $600,000 contract with Trevor Gott, who is projected to post 0.2 WAR in 54 games.

Where does Lou Trivino's $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR fit in that market?

We await Trivino's 2022 projection from ZiPS, which has yet to release its Oakland forecast.

moonslav59 · January 6, 2022

The free agent market is filled with available relievers.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-0

So far the market has yielded minor league contracts to, among others, Darren O'Day (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 26 games) and Jacob Barnes (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 34 games). Milwaukee signed a $600,000 contract with Trevor Gott, who is projected to post 0.2 WAR in 54 games.

Where does Lou Trivino's $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR fit in that market?

We await Trivino's 2022 projection from ZiPS, which has yet to release its Oakland forecast.

2nd year arb players are usually underpaid, while FAs are overpaid.

Do you value BTV assessments?

harmony · January 6, 2022

2nd year arb players are usually underpaid, while FAs are overpaid.

Do you value BTV assessments?

The problem with Baseball Trade Values is the volatility of valuations on individual players. The values can vary widely week to week.

BTV obviously (and appropriately) gathers projections from multiple sources. Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Lou Trivino alone should not produce a median surplus value of $1.1 million. Even that surplus value works out to less than $400,000 annually over Trivino's three remaining years of team control.

Nevertheless BTV is an entertaining website.

notin · January 7, 2022

The problem with Baseball Trade Values is the volatility of valuations on individual players. The values can vary widely week to week.

BTV obviously (and appropriately) gathers projections from multiple sources. Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Lou Trivino alone should not produce a median surplus value of $1.1 million. Even that surplus value works out to less than $400,000 annually over Trivino's three remaining years of team control.

Nevertheless BTV is an entertaining website.

Well, considering you were using a projected surplus valuation of -$2.9 mill for one year, why would you consider that valid while a surplus valuation of $1.1 mill over 3 years is too volatile?

And what is it about Steamer that makes you think they have any validity?

Edited January 7, 2022 by notin

harmony · January 7, 2022

Well, considering you were using a projected surplus valuation of -$2.9 mill for one year, why would you consider that valid while a surplus valuation of $1.1 mill over 3 years is too volatile?

And what is it about Steamer that makes you think they have any validity?

The 0.0 WAR projection for 2022 and the projected $1.1 million surplus value over three seasons are inconsistent. One or both are off; they can't both be accurate.

WAR projections should be gathered from multiple sources, including ZiPS, but among publicly available services only Steamer has provided 2022 projections for the Oakland Athletics. The ZiPS and other projections are eagerly awaited.

Each franchise likely has its own proprietary evaluation system, leaving the casual fan with the publicly available projections.

Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/

moonslav59 · January 7, 2022

The 0.0 WAR projection for 2022 and the projected $1.1 million surplus value over three seasons are inconsistent. One or both are off; they can't both be accurate.

WAR projections should be gathered from multiple sources, including ZiPS, but among publicly available services only Steamer has provided 2022 projections for the Oakland Athletics. The ZiPS and other projections are eagerly awaited.

Each franchise likely has its own proprietary evaluation system, leaving the casual fan with the publicly available projections.

Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/

You didn't answer why you think Steam has validity or the implied more validity, since you don't use BTV values.

(BTW, they rarely change weekly, and why shouldn't they change more often than once a year?)

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