A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Nothing really new, here, but here is MLBTR's breakdown of the Red Sox offseason and 2022 outlook...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/red-sox-have-the-flexibility-to-pursue-an-impact-move-coming-out-of-the-lockout.html

[notin]

I wonder what the plan is for Duran.

 

The Sox seem intent on pursuing Suzuki. Is he necessarily a better option? Sure he could be the next Hideki Matsui, but he could also be the next Kosuke Fukudome. Maybe sign a platoon partner (McCutchen? Pham?) and play Duran in LF, play Bradley in CF and Verdugo in RF with Kike at 2b vs RHP. Vs LHP, McCutchen/Pham in LF, Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2b. Spend Suzuki’s salary on a couple RPs instead.

 

Suzuki’s numbers in Japan are solid, but Duran is 25 and a top 50 prospect. His limited playing time last year was just that and might not mean anything going forward…

[moonslav59]

I wonder what the plan is for Duran.

 

The Sox seem intent on pursuing Suzuki. Is he necessarily a better option? Sure he could be the next Hideki Matsui, but he could also be the next Kosuke Fukudome. Maybe sign a platoon partner (McCutchen? Pham?) and play Duran in LF, play Bradley in CF and Verdugo in RF with Kike at 2b vs RHP. Vs LHP, McCutchen/Pham in LF, Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2b. Spend Suzuki’s salary on a couple RPs instead.

 

Suzuki’s numbers in Japan are solid, but Duran is 25 and a top 50 prospect. His limited playing time last year was just that and might not mean anything going forward…

 

Having both is not a bad idea, either, but I prefer spending on pitching as the higher priority.

 

Kike is a FA after this year, so having Duran, Suzuki and Verdugo for 2023 is not a bad idea. (JBJ will likely be here, too as his $8M option buy out pretty much means he'll be back for $4M more than the buy out.)

[harmony]

You didn't answer why you think Steam has validity or the implied more validity, since you don't use BTV values.

 

(BTW, they rarely change weekly, and why shouldn't they change more often than once a year?)

Steamer is offered because it is one of the more recognized publically available projection services. Of the top projection services, only Steamer to date has offered WAR projections for Oakland players.

 

Other projections are welcome.

 

FWIW Lou Trivino may be the flip side of Michael Wacha in terms of their progression in the 2021 season.

 

In 16 innings over his final 16 appearances, Trivino posted an 8.44 ERA (but 4.30 FIP) with a line of .292/.387/.446/.833. Over the same period Wacha posted a 2.88 ERA (3.28 FIP) with a line of .167/.217/.300/.517 in seven appearances, including six starts, covering 34.1 innings.

[mvp 78]

I wonder what the plan is for Duran.

 

The Sox seem intent on pursuing Suzuki. Is he necessarily a better option? Sure he could be the next Hideki Matsui, but he could also be the next Kosuke Fukudome. Maybe sign a platoon partner (McCutchen? Pham?) and play Duran in LF, play Bradley in CF and Verdugo in RF with Kike at 2b vs RHP. Vs LHP, McCutchen/Pham in LF, Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2b. Spend Suzuki’s salary on a couple RPs instead.

 

Suzuki’s numbers in Japan are solid, but Duran is 25 and a top 50 prospect. His limited playing time last year was just that and might not mean anything going forward…

 

Fukudome at age 26, had 93 career HR's. Suzuki at age 26, has 189 career HR's.

 

In the past 3 years, Suzuki has walked more than he has struck out. Fukudome's strike out total nearly doubled his walk total through age 26.

 

I think Suzuki will be more similar to Matsui than Fukudome, but probaby not quite as good as Matsui was.

[moonslav59]

Fukudome at age 26, had 93 career HR's. Suzuki at age 26, has 189 career HR's.

 

In the past 3 years, Suzuki has walked more than he has struck out. Fukudome's strike out total nearly doubled his walk total through age 26.

 

I think Suzuki will be more similar to Matsui than Fukudome, but probaby not quite as good as Matsui was.

 

The numbers sure make him seem like a better bet than Fukudome.

 

I think he's worth a shot, but then again, I like Rusney, too.

[moonslav59]

Starters Only

 

Best xFIP in the AL (95 pitchers with 50+ IP)

 

4. Houck 3.08

9. ERod 3.43

10. Eovaldi 3.48

41. Pivetta 4.29

55. Perez 4.52

75. Richards 4.87

 

123 pitchers with 40+ IP

4. Houck

7. Sale 3.35

10. ERod

11. Eovaldi

43. Pivetta

58. Perez

78 Richards

 

ERA-

9. Sale 70

26. Houck 81

29. Eovaldi 83

54. Pivetta 101

60. ERod 105

61. Perez 105

71. Richards 115

 

[moonslav59]

Sox ISO Leaders (100+ PAs w Sox)

 

.259 Devers

.254 Dalbec

.242 Renfroe

.232 JD

.231 Schwarber

 

.199 Kike

.198 Bogey

.183 Arroyo

 

.164 Santana

 

.138 Verdugo

.121 Duran

 

.102 Plawecki

.094 Vaz

.084 Marwin

.071 Cordero

 

150+ PAs w Sox

BAbip

.364 Schwarber

.340 JD

.333 Bogey

.328 Plawecki

.327 Verdugo

.325 Arroyo

 

.316 Dalbec

.307 Devers

.301 Vaz

 

.284 Renfroe

.278 Kike

.275 Marwin

 

Lowest LD%: Renfroe 17.6%

Lowest Hard Hit%: Vaz 22.7%

Highest Soft Hit%: Arroyo 27.3%

[harmony]

Be a member of the 2022 Red Sox team:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-major-league-strategic-information-assistant/

[moonslav59]

Be a member of the 2022 Red Sox team:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-major-league-strategic-information-assistant/

 

I had to turn this position down, so I could spend more time with my talksox family.

[oldtimer]

I wonder what the plan is for Duran.

 

The Sox seem intent on pursuing Suzuki. Is he necessarily a better option? Sure he could be the next Hideki Matsui, but he could also be the next Kosuke Fukudome. Maybe sign a platoon partner (McCutchen? Pham?) and play Duran in LF, play Bradley in CF and Verdugo in RF with Kike at 2b vs RHP. Vs LHP, McCutchen/Pham in LF, Kike in CF and Arroyo at 2b. Spend Suzuki’s salary on a couple RPs instead.

 

Suzuki’s numbers in Japan are solid, but Duran is 25 and a top 50 prospect. His limited playing time last year was just that and might not mean anything going forward…

I don't think Duran was given a reasonable shot last year. He got multiple at bats but in many cases they were broken up with idle periods. There was also a lot of talk about his deficiencies defensively but what I actually saw him do was make the plays available. There were continuous calls to trade him on this site from guys that wanted us to give more time to others who were abject failures on a daily basis. I am for giving him additional time to show whether his speed and power can be useful to the team.

 

 

I think Suzuki would be a reasonable gamble for the team. There will be a lot of competition for him though, so we may not win and should also think of alternative right handed outfielders if the Suzuki deal doesn't get done. I still wonder what we will do with JBJ. That deal just didn't make any sense to me.

[notin]

I had to turn this position down, so I could spend more time with my talksox family.

 

Plus I think they want someone who so does less research

[notin]

I don't think Duran was given a reasonable shot last year. He got multiple at bats but in many cases they were broken up with idle periods. There was also a lot of talk about his deficiencies defensively but what I actually saw him do was make the plays available. There were continuous calls to trade him on this site from guys that wanted us to give more time to others who were abject failures on a daily basis. I am for giving him additional time to show whether his speed and power can be useful to the team.

 

 

I think Suzuki would be a reasonable gamble for the team. There will be a lot of competition for him though, so we may not win and should also think of alternative right handed outfielders if the Suzuki deal doesn't get done. I still wonder what we will do with JBJ. That deal just didn't make any sense to me.

 

Duran had what? 112 plate appearances? No decision should have been made either way.

 

His fielding is largely based on scouts and observations from his minor league days. Not because he didn’t flub any of his 47 putouts.

 

I’m ok with giving Duran an actual shot now with Renfroe out of the way and, unless it’s a marquee talent, another outfielder. Kris Bryant? Trade Duran! Corey Dickerson? Is he really an improvement? Seiya Suzuki? I don’t know enough about him to make a call either way, but I do know Duran is already here…

[moonslav59]

I don't think Duran was given a reasonable shot last year. He got multiple at bats but in many cases they were broken up with idle periods. There was also a lot of talk about his deficiencies defensively but what I actually saw him do was make the plays available. There were continuous calls to trade him on this site from guys that wanted us to give more time to others who were abject failures on a daily basis. I am for giving him additional time to show whether his speed and power can be useful to the team.

 

 

I think Suzuki would be a reasonable gamble for the team. There will be a lot of competition for him though, so we may not win and should also think of alternative right handed outfielders if the Suzuki deal doesn't get done. I still wonder what we will do with JBJ. That deal just didn't make any sense to me.

 

Suggestions to trade a player do not mean we value him less than others.

 

You have to give talent to get talent.

[notin]

Suggestions to trade a player do not mean we value him less than others.

 

You have to give talent to get talent.

 

The call to trade him was based on:

 

1. The Sox had a full outfield and

2. He was a legitimate top 50 prospect.

 

When the Sox had needs, he was a good candidate to trade. Unloading Arauz was only going to get so much, if anything…

[moonslav59]

The call to trade him was based on:

 

1. The Sox had a full outfield and

2. He was a legitimate top 50 prospect.

 

When the Sox had needs, he was a good candidate to trade. Unloading Arauz was only going to get so much, if anything…

 

I'd add a #3.

 

His defense is not all that good, despite his speed maybe helping him eventually becoming a plus.

 

Also, I would avoid trading Mayer, and Casas is way more valuable than Duran.

 

I'm liking Yorke, too.

[notin]

I'd add a #3.

 

His defense is not all that good, despite his speed maybe helping him eventually becoming a plus.

 

Also, I would avoid trading Mayer, and Casas is way more valuable than Duran.

 

I'm liking Yorke, too.

 

The thing about Casas is, first base isn't exactly the toughest position to fill. We have a blocked third baseman playing there now...

[moonslav59]

The thing about Casas is, first base isn't exactly the toughest position to fill. We have a blocked third baseman playing there now...

 

True, and Dalbec may turn out better.

 

I'm not against trading Casas for the right player, and I've suggested a few on BTV.

[notin]

True, and Dalbec may turn out better.

 

I'm not against trading Casas for the right player, and I've suggested a few on BTV.

 

I’m not against trying Casas (or Dalbec) in left field, either.

[moonslav59]

I’m not against trying Casas (or Dalbec) in left field, either.

 

If they both hit well enough, that may be a non-trade solution.

 

I'm not seeing Dalbec at 3B, if Devers bolts.

[moonslav59]

The Depth Chart as it stands now:

 

Red: Not on 40 Man Roster

C

Vaz, Plawecki (Wong, R Hernandez)

 

1B

Dalbec, Kike/Vaz

Casas

 

2B

Arroyo, Arauz, Downs

 

3B

Devers, Arroyo, (Potts)

 

SS

Bogey, Arroyo, Arauz, (Downs)

 

LF

Verdugo, Duran, JD Martinez

Cordero

 

CF

Kike, JBJ (Rosario)

Refsnyder

 

RF

JBJ, Verdugo, JD Martinez

C Stewart

 

SP

Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Paxton

(Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Groome, Bello)

 

RP

Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, DHern, Sawamura, Davis

(Valdez, Bazardo) Ort, Feltman

 

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted this wild blockbuster. (I'm not sure I or Bloom would. Actually, I'm certain Bloom would not.)

 

Casas, Duran, Mata & Winckowski

 

to OAK for

 

Montas 2 yrs

Olson 2 yrs

Trivino 3 yrs

Piscotty 1 yr (salary dump)

 

1. Kike 2B

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. Olson 1B

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo RF

7. Dalbec/Duran LF

8. JBJ/Piscotty CF

9. Vaz/Plawecki C

 

SP

1. Eovaldi

2. Montas

3. Sale

4. Pivetta

5. Wacha/Hill/Paxton

 

RP

1. Houck

2. Whitlock

3. Hill/Wacha

4. Barnes

5. Brasier

6. Taylor

7. DHern

8. Sawamura/Davis (Wacha/Hill)

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here is another one BTV accepted...

 

Duran, Downs, Mata & Winckowski

for

Merrifield 2 yrs

Staumont 4 yrs

Barlow 3 yrs

 

1. Merrifield 2B

2. Kike CF

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo LF/RF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. JBJ RF/ Duran LF

9. Vaz/Plawecki C

 

SP: Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill/Paxton

RP: Houck, Whitlock, Barlow, Staumont, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor,

DHern/Sawamura/Davis

[harmony]

The numbers sure make him seem like a better bet than Fukudome.

 

I think he's worth a shot, but then again, I like Rusney, too.

A clip from a Koji Uehara interview with Seiya Suzuki:

 

https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

[moonslav59]

A clip from a Koji Uehara interview with Seiya Suzuki:

 

https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

 

Koji: “You’re going to Boston, right?”

Seiya: “Uh…I can’t quite disclose that yet.”

 

Sounds encouraging!

[oldtimer]

I pitched two 7 inning softball games yesterday in a 70's league and then stayed up to watch the college football national championship. That went 4 hours where the normal pro game goes 3. More ads and wasted time. Hard to watch, even on mute. Kind of an ordeal for someone on the verge of 81.

 

The hope is we will start to see action on the CBA talks so we can do more than read Moon's speculations on trades. If he makes enough, like the monkey on the typewriter, he is bound to get something right.

[harmony]

Koji: “You’re going to Boston, right?”

Seiya: “Uh…I can’t quite disclose that yet.”

 

Sounds encouraging!

Depends on the translation:

 

Koji: "You're going to Boston, right?"

Seiya: "No ... I don't know about Boston ..."

 

https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

[mvp 78]

I pitched two 7 inning softball games yesterday in a 70's league and then stayed up to watch the college football national championship. That went 4 hours where the normal pro game goes 3. More ads and wasted time. Hard to watch, even on mute. Kind of an ordeal for someone on the verge of 81.

 

The hope is we will start to see action on the CBA talks so we can do more than read Moon's speculations on trades. If he makes enough, like the monkey on the typewriter, he is bound to get something right.

 

A double header of softball and then followed by college football sounds like a good time to me.

 

The owners are supposed to provide a follow up by next Friday. We'll see what happens. I was optimistic back in November, but the silence is deafening.

[dgalehouse]

I pitched two 7 inning softball games yesterday in a 70's league and then stayed up to watch the college football national championship. That went 4 hours where the normal pro game goes 3. More ads and wasted time. Hard to watch, even on mute. Kind of an ordeal for someone on the verge of 81.

 

The hope is we will start to see action on the CBA talks so we can do more than read Moon's speculations on trades. If he makes enough, like the monkey on the typewriter, he is bound to get something right.

 

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

[mvp 78]

College football games take four hours to play. All for about thirteen or fourteen minutes of actual play. So much chatter , commercials , time outs , penalties , reviews , replays and other various dead time. Yet the sport is very popular. Makes you wonder if pace of play is really MLB 's biggest issue. Or is it something else? Or a combination of things?

 

College football during the commercials can be fun live. Atmosphere is way better than a baseball game. If you cut baseball down to time when a ball is in play, it'd be shorter than a football game.