A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

1.) What question are you talking about? I apologize but I just don't really care to scroll back, ask again and I promise I will answer.

 

2.) How many of those "single A" players are LOW A Position players?

 

Why are we talking about Jiminez so much? could it be because of his prospect ranking? If this did happen to the Sox system with a lower level prospect my guess would be a team takes someone like Ceddanne Rafaela, who would add more value to a MLB team now because he can field his position great.

 

Rafaela would be a better fit for a team who are actually looking for a bench player to be productive. If someone selects Jimenez, they will barely use him this year and hope he turns into something in 2024.

[mvp 78]

It's hard to prove he would have been any good had they not selected him.

 

Torrens was a Yankees prospect so we already know his value was vastly inflated due to the name on the front of the uni.

[Hugh2]

1) The question was, "Why did so many baseball people talk about protecting Jimenez as a real possibility, if they felt like he had close to zero chance of being selected?

 

2) 100% of those single A players selected were position players (Baddoo).

 

3) I'm only still talking about Jimenez, because I'm responding to replies and comments made about an original post where I said he "MIGHT" get taken. I don't even think he will get taken. It seems like I think the odds are higher than you and notin, but that is why the discussion has continued- that and because what else is there to talks about?

 

My point was more about the general state of MLB, now. The added roster spot. The tanking teams looking 3-6 years down the road. It was not really meant to be about the merits of Jimenez alone, but more about how I think guys like him, and I have said others are probably better options than him, might be selected more than we have seen before.

 

1.) What baseball people? You can have 20 different takes all taking root from the same source. Sometimes guys just look at a list and look at the ranking and say "oh he's a good prospect, they should protect him" without any real insight.

 

2.) Baddoo is 1, I'm still not convinced this is a regular occurrence. Also, there is low A and high A, a big difference. Are you telling me all the players taking in rule 5 from low A are position players? And if they were 100% doesn't tell me anything. It could be 100% of 1 player or 100% of 100 players. Big difference.

 

3.) Jimenez could be taken, there's a probability of that happening. How high is it? well, it's probably better than an asteroid striking our planet today but I'd say it's more probable than not he's NOT taken. There's a difference between something happening, and something happening all the time. The desert gets precipitation, but you won't see me arguing about how it MIGHT rain in the Sahara today. Yes, the extra roster spot makes things more intriguing, it changes things at the top, but it doesn't change players timelines and their development. I don't think we will see an increase of A ball players taken in Rule V drafts, and if we do.......my money is on more pitchers than position players being taken.

[Hugh2]

Rafaela would be a better fit for a team who are actually looking for a bench player to be productive. If someone selects Jimenez, they will barely use him this year and hope he turns into something in 2024.

 

How can someone who isn't playing turn into something?

 

That's like saying I'm training for a muscleman competition by sitting on the couch and eating twinkies all year and hopefully I get bigger and lose weight. Even the example M

oon gave, at least Baddoo played, a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen and have him throw bullpen sessions and still develop his stuff. A position player can't not develop on the bench. Which makes taking a prospect who is particularly toolsy, and NOT polished extremely unlikely from the low A level.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to prove he would have been any good had they not selected him.

 

Oh, it's more than hard LOL

[moonslav59]

1.) What baseball people? You can have 20 different takes all taking root from the same source. Sometimes guys just look at a list and look at the ranking and say "oh he's a good prospect, they should protect him" without any real insight.

 

2.) Baddoo is 1, I'm still not convinced this is a regular occurrence. Also, there is low A and high A, a big difference. Are you telling me all the players taking in rule 5 from low A are position players? And if they were 100% doesn't tell me anything. It could be 100% of 1 player or 100% of 100 players. Big difference.

 

3.) Jimenez could be taken, there's a probability of that happening. How high is it? well, it's probably better than an asteroid striking our planet today but I'd say it's more probable than not he's NOT taken. There's a difference between something happening, and something happening all the time. The desert gets precipitation, but you won't see me arguing about how it MIGHT rain in the Sahara today. Yes, the extra roster spot makes things more intriguing, it changes things at the top, but it doesn't change players timelines and their development. I don't think we will see an increase of A ball players taken in Rule V drafts, and if we do.......my money is on more pitchers than position players being taken.

 

1. Well, many lists I saw were different, so I don't think they were just mimicking each other.

 

2. I don't know if taking single A everyday players might be a trend or a one and done. If anything, the success of Baddoo might make more GMs look into similar profile players and take the plunge. (I do believe pitchers are more likely targets- for obvious reasons.)

 

3. I agree with the more pitchers take, but I will repeat my original statement that started pages of debate:

 

"Don't be surprised if more single A players are selected, this year due to the added roster spot and the amount of ML teams seemingly in tank mode." (I think it went something like that.)

 

[mvp 78]

1.) What baseball people? You can have 20 different takes all taking root from the same source. Sometimes guys just look at a list and look at the ranking and say "oh he's a good prospect, they should protect him" without any real insight.

 

2.) Baddoo is 1, I'm still not convinced this is a regular occurrence. Also, there is low A and high A, a big difference. Are you telling me all the players taking in rule 5 from low A are position players? And if they were 100% doesn't tell me anything. It could be 100% of 1 player or 100% of 100 players. Big difference.

 

3.) Jimenez could be taken, there's a probability of that happening. How high is it? well, it's probably better than an asteroid striking our planet today but I'd say it's more probable than not he's NOT taken. There's a difference between something happening, and something happening all the time. The desert gets precipitation, but you won't see me arguing about how it MIGHT rain in the Sahara today. Yes, the extra roster spot makes things more intriguing, it changes things at the top, but it doesn't change players timelines and their development. I don't think we will see an increase of A ball players taken in Rule V drafts, and if we do.......my money is on more pitchers than position players being taken.

 

Rule V selections working out are few and far between. 90% of the guys will be forgotten in a few years.

[mvp 78]

How can someone who isn't playing turn into something?

 

That's like saying I'm training for a muscleman competition by sitting on the couch and eating twinkies all year and hopefully I get bigger and lose weight. Even the example M

oon gave, at least Baddoo played, a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen and have him throw bullpen sessions and still develop his stuff. A position player can't not develop on the bench. Which makes taking a prospect who is particularly toolsy, and NOT polished extremely unlikely from the low A level.

 

Jimenez career trajectory:

 

2022 - sits on ass

2023 - goes to AA and produces

2024 - become something

[Hugh2]

Jimenez career trajectory:

 

2022 - sits on ass

2023 - goes to AA and produces

2024 - become something

 

That just seems very unlikely, you're effectively giving a player a lost year one year after having a lost year due to no minor league season.

 

If anything, this is not the year you reach for a guy in A ball. Especially seeing how the lost year has created a boatload of older players in AA/AAA who could probably help other teams now.

[moonslav59]

How can someone who isn't playing turn into something?

 

That's like saying I'm training for a muscleman competition by sitting on the couch and eating twinkies all year and hopefully I get bigger and lose weight. Even the example M

oon gave, at least Baddoo played, a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen and have him throw bullpen sessions and still develop his stuff. A position player can't not develop on the bench. Which makes taking a prospect who is particularly toolsy, and NOT polished extremely unlikely from the low A level.

 

How did all the minor league players who took 2020 off due to COVID not turn into jelly rolls or melt into their couches never to be seen again?

 

Many looked like they barely missed a step. Others did poorly, but that happens often enough even with no missed year.

 

I'm not saying no harm is done. I'm pretty sure almost every player would be affected to some degree, but that is not how owners view the situation. If they think a player they can get for free has a lot of potential to be great, they may select them, knowing they may end up with a slightly lower producing player in the long run because they hardly played the kid for a year. The main issue is they go from having nothing to having a potential star that was stunted a bit along the way to stardom.

 

Also, the Rule 5 guys are not sitting on couches, either. They do get a lot of practice and exposure to some great coaching and role models. They may play a bit. They will play in ST'ing and maybe mop up or situational moments, so not everything is lost in 6 months. They can play in the Fall & Winter leagues, too.

[moonslav59]

That just seems very unlikely, you're effectively giving a player a lost year one year after having a lost year due to no minor league season.

 

If anything, this is not the year you reach for a guy in A ball. Especially seeing how the lost year has created a boatload of older players in AA/AAA who could probably help other teams now.

 

I admit Jimenez is not the poster boy for my theory, but would anyone have named Baddoo as last year's poster boy?.

[Hugh2]

How did all the minor league players who took 2020 off due to COVID not turn into jelly rolls or melt into their couches never to be seen again?

 

Many looked like they barely missed a step. Others did poorly, but that happens often enough even with no missed year.

 

I'm not saying no harm is done. I'm pretty sure almost every player would be affected to some degree, but that is not how owners view the situation. If they think a player they can get for free has a lot of potential to be great, they may select them, knowing they may end up with a slightly lower producing player in the long run because they hardly played the kid for a year. The main issue is they go from having nothing to having a potential star that was stunted a bit along the way to stardom.

 

Also, the Rule 5 guys are not sitting on couches, either. They do get a lot of practice and exposure to some great coaching and role models. They may play a bit. They will play in ST'ing and maybe mop up or situational moments, so not everything is lost in 6 months. They can play in the Fall & Winter leagues, too.

 

How? because every single one of them were in the same exact boat.

 

Taking a year off from baseball after playing in low A, and then reporting back in 2021 to play in high A against everyone else who also missed a year is a far reach from. Hey, lets jump 4 levels, sit on the bench for a year after a whole year of missing development for 2 missed years out of 3.

 

There's a very stark difference between missing one year vs. missing two. That's a lot of developmental time lost

[Hugh2]

I admit Jimenez is not the poster boy for my theory, but would anyone have named Baddoo as last year's poster boy?.

 

I don't think A guy makes for a poster boy unless more follow. If one or two position players are selected from A ball this year that might be something but I wouldn't be calling him a poster boy for selecting A level position players unless it actually starts happening in droves. We will see, we're' going to find out relatively soon.

[mvp 78]

I admit Jimenez is not the poster boy for my theory, but would anyone have named Baddoo as last year's poster boy?.

 

Below are some of the musings I found when Baddoo was picked. Baddoo is different from Jimenez in a few key ways.

 

1. Baddoo was injured in 2019 AND missed 2020. That's two years of development that were thrown out the window. (Jimenez has played, but not really produced)

2. Baddoo was a 2nd round pick. (Jimenez was a low level int'l signee)

3. Baddoo already showed 5 tools in game. (Jimenez shows little to no power)

 

 

 

3. Tigers: Akil Baddoo, OF (from Twins)

Minnesota left Baddoo, their second-round pick in the 2016 draft, exposed because of his seemingly slim chances of sticking on an active roster for a whole year. After all, he's played in just 29 regular-season games since the start of 2019 because of the pandemic and Tommy John surgery. Baddoo has good raw strength and speed, but his lack of experience against upper-level pitching will make it tough for the Tigers to keep him around as more than a deep reserve

 

 

 

The best position player selected was Akil Baddoo by the Detroit Tigers. He was ranked as the No. 13 prospect in the Minnesota Twins system by MLB Pipeline leading up to the Rule 5 draft.

 

The 22-year-old has only played 29 games at High-A when he posted a .214/.290/.393 slash line during the 2019 season. The Maryland native showed tremendous promise as a hitter before that aggressive move and has a .249/.357/.422 slash line with 21 homers and 93 RBI in 233 career games.

 

Even though the odds against Baddoo being able to crack an MLB roster given his limited experience, but the Tigers are in a position when they can allow him to prove himself during spring training before making a final decision.

 

 

Baddoo hit .323 (65-for-201) with a .964 OPS in 53 games at the Rookie League level in 2017, all while playing center field. A year later, he compiled 22 doubles, 11 triples, 11 homers and 24 stolen bases with a .770 OPS and a 121 wRC+ at Class A Cedar Rapids. While his .243 average was low, his 74 walks resulted in a .351 on-base percentage.

 

The momentum from that 2018 season stalled when Baddoo sustained an elbow injury early in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery that May. He would’ve been ready to play this year had there been a Minor League season.

[mvp 78]

I don't think A guy makes for a poster boy unless more follow. If one or two position players are selected from A ball this year that might be something but I wouldn't be calling him a poster boy for selecting A level position players unless it actually starts happening in droves. We will see, we're' going to find out relatively soon.

 

There's a long history of the Rule V being a nothingburger. I think the lack of the 2020 season made that draft slightly more important.

[Hugh2]

There's a long history of the Rule V being a nothingburger. I think the lack of the 2020 season made that draft slightly more important.

 

agree, it won't be permanent, but I think it will be interesting this year.

[notin]

There's a long history of the Rule V being a nothingburger. I think the lack of the 2020 season made that draft slightly more important.

 

The Rule 5 draft is the most overrated event in American sports, with the possible exception of the Kentucky Derby…

[mvp 78]

agree, it won't be permanent, but I think it will be interesting this year.

 

I'm looking forward to getting excited for it and then for the owner's to lockout everyone before we can get there.

[mvp 78]

The Rule 5 draft is the most overrated event in American sports, with the possible exception of the Kentucky Derby…

 

I'd rather watch the Rule 5 draft than any golf event.

[notin]

I'd rather watch the Rule 5 draft than any golf event.

 

I’d rather watch just about anything over golf, and was tempted to use the Ryder’s Cup as my overrated example. I also briefly thought of the Beanpot tournament…

[notin]

Orioles listening on John Means. Should Boston be talking? And who should be mentioned first?

 

Would anyone go as high as Yorke and Bello, which is closer to Means’ BTV value and certainly a package Baltimore will listen to…

[Bellhorn04]

The Rule 5 draft is the most overrated event in American sports, with the possible exception of the Kentucky Derby…

 

Except for drafting Whitlock. Extremely rare but a beautiful thing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Orioles listening on John Means. Should Boston be talking? And who should be mentioned first?

 

Would anyone go as high as Yorke and Bello, which is closer to Means’ BTV value and certainly a package Baltimore will listen to…

 

Not me. Means' 2021: first half 2.28 ERA, second half 4.88 -- during the ban on sticky stuff and a shoulder injury. I need to see an entire year of adjustments and recovery first. Right now, I wouldn't even trade Bello for Means straight up.

[mvp 78]

I’d rather watch just about anything over golf, and was tempted to use the Ryder’s Cup as my overrated example. I also briefly thought of the Beanpot tournament…

 

Ryder's Cup is lame.

 

The Beanpot is cool as a local event, but not good for tv.

 

Another thing that is dumb is America's Cup.

[notin]

Ryder's Cup is lame.

 

The Beanpot is cool as a local event, but not good for tv.

 

Another thing that is dumb is America's Cup.

 

Ah the America’s Cup. The Aquatic Kentucky Derby!

[notin]

Not me. Means' 2021: first half 2.28 ERA, second half 4.88 -- during the ban on sticky stuff and a shoulder injury. I need to see an entire year of adjustments and recovery first. Right now, I wouldn't even trade Bello for Means straight up.

 

 

Bello may never get above AA.

 

Means would be a good get, but acquiring him figures to not be simple. I’d throw Duran out there for part of the deal, but no way is he enough to get it done…

[mvp 78]

Orioles listening on John Means. Should Boston be talking? And who should be mentioned first?

 

Would anyone go as high as Yorke and Bello, which is closer to Means’ BTV value and certainly a package Baltimore will listen to…

 

Yorke AND Bello for Means? I wouldn't do it. Mostly due to his injury last year and the performance afterwards. He's 29 this upcoming year. Peak John Means is a 3rd starter? Career FIP is 4.65.

 

After he was sidelined for his shoulder: 4.88 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 792 OPSa, 333 wOBA.

 

https://www.camdenchat.com/2021/8/17/22628308/john-means-post-injury-growing-cause-for-concern

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bello may never get above AA.

 

Means would be a good get, but acquiring him figures to not be simple. I’d throw Duran out there for part of the deal, but no way is he enough to get it done…

 

I'm not against adding Means to the roster, just not for swapping the Sox' top pitching prospect for a big leaguer with legitimate questions. Half a decade ago, I was angry when Dombrowski gave up the Sox' top pitching prospect for Drew Pomeranz, who had just become an All-Star for the first time at age 27.

 

My only question about Anderson Espinoza back then was how many Cy Youngs the next Pedro would win. The answer is zero, which is the amount of MLB games Espinoza has pitched (so far). But he's still five years younger than Means...

 

I'm still against the Espinoza trade in theory, but it's not like anyone is untouchable in a deal for a proven star player. I'd trade Bello in a package for more of a sure thing like Luis Castillo, who's never been injured and actually got better after the sticky ban.

[Bellhorn04]

Ryder's Cup is lame.

 

Yeah sure. And so is heavy metal.

[mvp 78]

Yeah sure. And so is heavy metal.

 

Calling it heavy metal is lame.