A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Per B-R.com, he has signed seven contracts with the Sox, but this is his first one since 2015…

 

For someone who is a pretty good pitcher, when healthy, the guy was...

 

drafted 3 times

 

signed 14 times

 

traded 2 times

 

purchases 2 times

 

released 2 times

 

granted free agency 12 times

 

I guess for a guy who will turn 42, soon, this might be expected.

 

[moonslav59]

Paxton is not making $10M in 2022, unless we turn down his option.

 

There are also 2 separate options: one after '22 and one after '23.

 

MLBTR...

 

He’ll be paid $6MM in 2022. Then he has a $13MM option for ’23; if declined, Paxton gets a $4MM player option. If the ’23 option is picked up, the club has another $13MM option on ’24.

[S5Dewey]

Paxton is not making $10M in 2022, unless we turn down his option.

 

There are also 2 separate options: one after '22 and one after '23.

 

MLBTR...

 

He’ll be paid $6MM in 2022. Then he has a $13MM option for ’23; if declined, Paxton gets a $4MM player option. If the ’23 option is picked up, the club has another $13MM option on ’24.

 

Sorting it out now...

He'll get $6MM in salary in 2022. If he Sox decline the 2023 option he'll get an additional $4MM bringing him to $10MM for 2022.

If the club picks up his option for 2023 he won't get the $4MM but instead will get $13MM for 2023 and they will have paid him $19MM over two years.

At the end of 2023 the Sox will have another chance to decline his option. If they exercise that option Paxton walks away with no additional money but if they accept the option he will get $13MM for 2024. Correct?

[mvp 78]

Paxton is not making $10M in 2022, unless we turn down his option.

 

There are also 2 separate options: one after '22 and one after '23.

 

MLBTR...

 

He’ll be paid $6MM in 2022. Then he has a $13MM option for ’23; if declined, Paxton gets a $4MM player option. If the ’23 option is picked up, the club has another $13MM option on ’24.

 

This makes more sense than 1/10.

[moonslav59]

Sorting it out now...

He'll get $6MM in salary in 2022. If he Sox decline the 2023 option he'll get an additional $4MM bringing him to $10MM for 2022.

If the club picks up his option for 2023 he won't get the $4MM but instead will get $13MM for 2023 and they will have paid him $19MM over two years.

At the end of 2023 the Sox will have another chance to decline his option. If they exercise that option Paxton walks away with no additional money but if they accept the option he will get $13MM for 2024. Correct?

 

Yes. Essentially, it is $10M for year one, if we say good bye, but taking off that $4M for year 2 is significant.

 

$10M/1

$19M/2

$32M/3

 

Basically, year 2 is just $9M.

 

This is another reason I am seeing these moves being more about 2023 and beyond than 2022.

[notin]

So far, I couldn’t be more confused.

 

I think the rotation is set and the bullpen (with both Houck and Whitlock) is very close. So that’s probably not true.

 

And the only four starters I think are locks for opening day (barring injury) are Devers at 3b, JD at DH, Vazquez at catcher, and Bogaerts at SS. And I have a few residual doubts about Bogaerts.

 

Dalbec at 1b also looks good, but I also think a LHH compliment is likely, someone to act as a place holder for Casas. The incredibly obvious choice to me is Brad Miller. But I also pegged him as an incredibly obvious choice last winter and he went and signed somewhere else….

[moonslav59]

So far, I couldn’t be more confused.

 

I think the rotation is set and the bullpen (with both Houck and Whitlock) is very close. So that’s probably not true.

 

And the only four starters I think are locks for opening day (barring injury) are Devers at 3b, JD at DH, Vazquez at catcher, and Bogaerts at SS. And I have a few residual doubts about Bogaerts.

 

Dalbec at 1b also looks good, but I also think a LHH compliment is likely, someone to act as a place holder for Casas. The incredibly obvious choice to me is Brad Miller. But I also pegged him as an incredibly obvious choice last winter and he went and signed somewhere else….

 

Kike is a lock as a starter- just his position is not.

 

(Dugo, too.)

[moonslav59]

Could this be what we see?

 

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: JBJ

OF: Duran

 

If Kike plays 2B:

LF: Duran

CF: JBJ

RF: Verdugo

[Nick]

Yes. Essentially, it is $10M for year one, if we say good bye, but taking off that $4M for year 2 is significant.

 

$10M/1

$19M/2

$32M/3

 

Basically, year 2 is just $9M.

 

This is another reason I am seeing these moves being more about 2023 and beyond than 2022.

 

I'm trying to think like a Tampa fan....I think this deal is for replacing Eovaldi and his expected $20M+ contract once he hit fee agency in 2023.

 

Bloom is always thinking ahead. If Paxton recovers early and is able to pitch in September, great. Otherwise, he's the backup plan for 2023, a cheaper version, for Eovaldi leaving. I just think that's how Bloom is wired. He looks for guys with higher ceiling than shown due to injury or otherwise.

 

I will repeat this going forward. Bloom wants to spread the risk. He will sign Wacha and Hill, hoping one will come through.

[Old Red]

Could this be what we see?

 

LF: Verdugo

CF: Kike

RF: JBJ

OF: Duran

 

If Kike plays 2B:

LF: Duran

CF: JBJ

RF: Verdugo

 

I don’t think at this point they are counting on Duran as being a starter, but if they don’t sign anyone else, and if he has a good spring training whenever that is that could change.

[harmony]

I don’t think at this point they are counting on Duran as being a starter, but if they don’t sign anyone else, and if he has a good spring training whenever that is that could change.

Jarren Duran will be two years older than lefty-hitting Taylor Trammell was last spring when the Seattle outfielder tore up the Cactus League en route to an Opening Day start in center field:

 

2024 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The official source for player hitting stats, MLB home run leaders, batting average, OPS and stat leaders

 

Perhaps Taylor Trammell is the new Jarren Duran comp.

Edited December 3, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I'm trying to think like a Tampa fan....I think this deal is for replacing Eovaldi and his expected $20M+ contract once he hit fee agency in 2023.

 

Bloom is always thinking ahead. If Paxton recovers early and is able to pitch in September, great. Otherwise, he's the backup plan for 2023, a cheaper version, for Eovaldi leaving. I just think that's how Bloom is wired. He looks for guys with higher ceiling than shown due to injury or otherwise.

 

I will repeat this going forward. Bloom wants to spread the risk. He will sign Wacha and Hill, hoping one will come through.

 

A good way to look at that signing.

 

There was a time Eovaldi had an injury history similar to Paxton’s.

[Bellhorn04]

I will repeat this going forward. Bloom wants to spread the risk. He will sign Wacha and Hill, hoping one will come through.

 

Yes, I have to agree about spreading the risk.

 

So far his misses have been easily survivable. Like Richards and Perez. Sure they were like crumbled dung after the sticky stuff crackdown. But it didn't hurt us that much on the field or in payroll commitments.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I have to agree about spreading the risk.

 

So far his misses have been easily survivable. Like Richards and Perez. Sure they were like crumbled dung after the sticky stuff crackdown. But it didn't hurt us that much on the field or in payroll commitments.

 

As bad as Richards and Perez were, and don’t take this as being their apologists, but Perez was arguably our ace after a third of the season, and Richards filled the closer roll nicely through a crucial time in our playoff run.

 

I’m hopeful these guys can do better the R & P, but maybe we can win again even if they don’t.

 

I’m still optimistic about 2022, but I have to admit I hoped for pieces I felt were better choices.

[moonslav59]

mlbtr on Bloom...

 

 

“We still would like to add more pitching,” Bloom said. “Short relievers, that’s something we have yet to address in meaningful fashion.” Bloom went on to add that the Sox would continue to be involved in the market for position players, pointing to a right-handed bat as a particular bonus in the wake of the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi

Sale

Pivetta

Wacha

Hill

Paxton

(Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford)

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Taylor

Barnes

DHern

Sawamura

Davis

(Valdez, Bacardi, Feltman)

Edited December 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

1. Kike CF/2B

2. Verdugo LF/RF

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Dalbec 1B

7. Arroyo 2B/ JBJ CF-RF

8. JBJ CF-RF/ Duran LF

9. Vazquez C (Plawecki)

 

 

 

[Old Red]

A good way to look at that signing.

 

There was a time Eovaldi had an injury history similar to Paxton’s.

 

Eovaldi was 26 when he had his last TJ, and Pax was 32 quite a big difference. I don’t think Sale is as good at 32 as he was at 26 TJ, or not.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi was 26 when he had his last TJ, and Pax was 32 quite a big difference. I don’t think Sale is as good at 32 as he was at 26 TJ, or not.

 

Yes, it is a big difference. I didn’t mean to imply they were near identical cases, but even before Nate’s surgery, he only pitched over 155 innings once.

 

He also missed a good chunk of 2019.

[Larry Cook]

I am very encouraged by what hang’em Chaim has achieved this off season.

 

We got some starters, which will push some fringe starters into full time bullpen pitchers,

 

We added some defense and increased the prospect pool.

 

We are a closer away from having a completed offseason.

[Tedballgame]

I am very encouraged by what hang’em Chaim has achieved this off season.

 

We got some starters, which will push some fringe starters into full time bullpen pitchers,

 

We added some defense and increased the prospect pool.

 

We are a closer away from having a completed offseason.

 

Plus two good bullpen guys and another bat.

[moonslav59]

Plus two good bullpen guys and another bat.

 

That’s basically what Bloom just said.

[mvp 78]

As bad as Richards and Perez were, and don’t take this as being their apologists, but Perez was arguably our ace after a third of the season, and Richards filled the closer roll nicely through a crucial time in our playoff run.

 

I’m hopeful these guys can do better the R & P, but maybe we can win again even if they don’t.

 

I’m still optimistic about 2022, but I have to admit I hoped for pieces I felt were better choices.

 

On 6/3/21:

 

Perez: 58.1 Inn, 3.51 FIP, 8.02 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 56 GSv2

Richards: 60 Inn, 4.07 FIP, 7.80 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 52 GSv2

ERod: 52.2 Inn, 3.74 FIP, 9.91 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 48 GSv2

Eovaldi: 60.2 Inn, 2.36 FIP, 8.60 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 58 GSv2

Pivetta: 59.2 Inn, 3.27 FIP, 10.26 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 57 GSv2

 

I'd say he was the third best starter. He was 3rd in FIP, 4th in Innings, 4th in K/9, 3rd in BB/9, 3rd in Game Score.

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Perez

ERod

Richards

[Bellhorn04]

I'm staying with the Sticky Stuff theory on Richards and Perez.

 

Richards basically said his career was over when the crackdown came. It was refreshingly honest and disturbing at the same time.

[mvp 78]

I'm staying with the Sticky Stuff theory on Richards and Perez.

 

Richards basically said his career was over when the crackdown came. It was refreshingly honest and disturbing at the same time.

 

8/13 - 10/2

 

25.2 Innings, 0 GS, 9.59 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 2.74 FIP (this includes the 5 runs given up on 9/30 and 9/26)

[moonslav59]

On 6/3/21:

 

Perez: 58.1 Inn, 3.51 FIP, 8.02 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 56 GSv2

Richards: 60 Inn, 4.07 FIP, 7.80 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 52 GSv2

ERod: 52.2 Inn, 3.74 FIP, 9.91 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 48 GSv2

Eovaldi: 60.2 Inn, 2.36 FIP, 8.60 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 58 GSv2

Pivetta: 59.2 Inn, 3.27 FIP, 10.26 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 57 GSv2

 

I'd say he was the third best starter. He was 3rd in FIP, 4th in Innings, 4th in K/9, 3rd in BB/9, 3rd in Game Score.

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Perez

ERod

Richards

 

All true, but one could argue...

 

ERA

3.09 Perez

3.75 Richards

3.77 Pivetta

4.01 Eovaldi

5.64 ERod

 

ERA-

68 Perez

83 Richards & Pivetta

88 Eovaldi

124 ERod

 

I know ERA is a pretty lame stat, these days, but he did get the job done, despite the less than impressive peripherals.

 

Team record in GS:

9-2 Pivetta

7-4 Perez

7-4 Eovaldi

5-5 ERod

5-6 Richards

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

All true, but one could argue...

 

ERA

3.09 Perez

3.75 Richards

3.77 Pivetta

4.01 Eovaldi

5.64 ERod

 

ERA-

68 Perez

83 Richards & Pivetta

88 Eovaldi

124 ERod

 

I know ERA is a pretty lame stat, these days, but he did get the job done, despite the less than impressive peripherals.

 

Team record in GS:

9-2 Pivetta

7-4 Perez

7-4 Eovaldi

5-5 ERod

5-6 Richards

 

 

I try NOT to come up with lame arguments. You do you though.

[moonslav59]

I try NOT to come up with lame arguments. You do you though.

 

It's not like ERA and ERA- are meaningless stats, but I do agree the other stats carry more weight.

 

At least I qualified my point with saying the stats may be viewed as rather "lame."

 

Okay, he wasn't the "ace," but I never said he clearly was. He was doing pretty well, though for 11 starts.

[mvp 78]

It's not like ERA and ERA- are meaningless stats, but I do agree the other stats carry more weight.

 

At least I qualified my point with saying the stats may be viewed as rather "lame."

 

Okay, he wasn't the "ace," but I never said he clearly was. He was doing pretty well, though for 11 starts.

 

They might not be meaningless, but they mean less to me than FIP.

 

You've mentioned the "ace" thing a few times now. I had to go check your math.

[moonslav59]

They might not be meaningless, but they mean less to me than FIP.

 

You've mentioned the "ace" thing a few times now. I had to go check your math.

 

Okay, but I said "One could argue he was the ace." (That didn't mean I was supporting the position.)