A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

To me, SS is a very important defensive position, so even if Bogey is not all that great at 2B or SS, then it is still a plus moving him off SS.

 

Of course, that assumes we add a better defensive SS without killing the offense by the differential we've gained on offense. If we moved Bogey to 2B, we'd be essentially replacing Arroyo's 2B bat with whoever we get at SS. If we move Devers to 1B to make room for Bogey at 3B, I agree, it gets more complicated and difficult to assess the gains, and the SS we add will have for his offensive comp: Dalbec/Casas not Arroyo.

 

We could sign Semien to play 2B in 2022, and then move him to SS. if Bogey bolts, or just swap them in 2022.

 

How many more years does Devers have before he can become a FA?

[moonslav59]

How many more years does Devers have before he can become a FA?

 

Devers has 2 more arb years to go.

 

He's a FA after 2023, unless we extend him.

[Old Red]

Devers has 2 more arb years to go.

 

He's a FA after 2023, unless we extend him.

 

If we are going to extend him then we’d better do it after this season, because the longer you wait the more expensive it will get. I do not like 10 yr, or more contracts worth 300 million+, and i wouldn’t do it for anybody, so if you can get something shorter then do it, or otherwise trade him. The Yankees have 2 $300+ million contracts, and Judge coming up I believe after next year, and they haven’t won anything. Those big contracts to me just aren’t worth it.

[moonslav59]

If we are going to extend him then we’d better do it after this season, because the longer you wait the more expensive it will get. I do not like 10 yr, or more contracts worth 300 million+, and i wouldn’t do it for anybody, so if you can get something shorter then do it, or otherwise trade him. The Yankees have 2 $300+ million contracts, and Judge coming up I believe after next year, and they haven’t won anything. Those big contracts to me just aren’t worth it.

 

Agreed, and since he has 2 arb years left, sometimes you can get a rather team friendly deal, because you give the player security he does not have with just 2 years left.

 

Of course, Devers is probably not worried about a career-threatening injury or some unexpected decline, but getting more money up front, has a lot of value.

 

I've been on the extend Devers bandwagon for a long time.

 

Devers Forevers!

 

Lock him up! Long term.

[moonslav59]

As much as playoff heroics might change some of our opinions on a player's value or ideas on trading, DFA'ing or keeping our players, it really should not matter much- one way or another.

 

We have a few big choices in early winter and one choice by JD that matters a lot.

 

The JD choice: We've beaten this one to death several times over and over. It really makes a big difference to the Sox. Personally, I think JD does NOT opt out, but it is not a slam dunk. He may want a longer security blanket.

 

The Schwarber Choice: He has a mutual option and will certainly turn down the $11.5M option.)

 

The team options:

No on Richards ($1.5M buy out over $10M option)

No on Perez ($500K buy out over $6M option)

Yes on Vaz ($7M option over $250K buy out)

 

The QO choice: Do we offer ERod a QO, and if so, does he accept it?

This is also a very important choice for the Sox and perhaps by ERod. It's a one year offer. I think we make the offer and he accepts it, in hopes he has a big 2022 season.

 

The Rule 5 Choices: We will likely protect 4-6 players from this list:

(This is NOT the full list.)

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Pedro Castellanos

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Jeter Downs

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Frank German

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Kaleb Ort

Tyreque Reed

Victor Santos

John Schreiber

Thaddeus Ward

Josh Winckowski

 

After all of this, we will begin signing free agents, making trades and deciding who to keep or let go. (Some mat be DFA'd to make room for Rule 5 additions.)

 

Special consideration may be given to players that see their team control end after 2022. Those players are:

 

JD Martinez

Eovaldi

Kike

Vazquez

Plawecki

 

The arbs:

Devers (2nd or 3 arbs)

Renfroe (3 of 4)

Verdugo (1 of 3)

Pivetta (1 of 3)

Arroyo (1 of 3)

Taylor (1 of 4)

Plawecki (4 of 4)

Brasier (2 of 3)

Cordero (2of 3)

 

[Nick]

I hope JD does opt out so we can go after Schwarber. He won't cost us $22M per year.

[Nick]

I hope E Rod moves on......I'm tired of hanging on to the past.

 

On one hand, Moon thinks won lost record is meaningless for pitchers but he constantly brings up the fact Sox usually wins when he starts. Can they both be true?

 

(I'm just trying to get Moon's blood pressure up little)

[oldtimer]

We may have issues with pitching contracts that could create serious headwinds for the team , not only in 2022 but beyond. The obvious ones are the Price $15 Mil owed in 2022 and the E-Rod free agency in 2022. We have to decide whether to make a QO and risk overpaying him if he underperforms or get something back if he is still taken. The big question there is whether he might retain good enough form a year away from Covid to lower the risk of overpaying.

 

Once past that, we have given Barnes a 2 year extension at $10 Mil per based on his 1st half performance. Clearly he lost effectiveness in the second half. Will he return to effectiveness or become another albatross limiting the moves we can make?

 

Perhaps the biggest question is with Sale who is contracted through 2024 for Ace money. He was injured when the contract was signed and has done little for us since. He is a great competitor and was one of the best. The Hope is that he can return to being a quality starter, but it is by no means a surety. Will he improve enough from TJ surgery and Covid to be worth the huge contract?

 

It looks like we may need to add up to 2 starters and a late inning BP arm.

[moonslav59]

I hope E Rod moves on......I'm tired of hanging on to the past.

 

On one hand, Moon thinks won lost record is meaningless for pitchers but he constantly brings up the fact Sox usually wins when he starts. Can they both be true?

 

(I'm just trying to get Moon's blood pressure up little)

 

It's not working.

 

I'm no big fan of ERod, but we win when he pitches.

 

Wins and losses are not meaningless. Never said that.

 

It's not just the winning percentage.

 

His other stats are not nearly as bad as you guys make him out to be.

[moonslav59]

We may have issues with pitching contracts that could create serious headwinds for the team , not only in 2022 but beyond. The obvious ones are the Price $15 Mil owed in 2022 and the E-Rod free agency in 2022. We have to decide whether to make a QO and risk overpaying him if he underperforms or get something back if he is still taken. The big question there is whether he might retain good enough form a year away from Covid to lower the risk of overpaying.

 

Once past that, we have given Barnes a 2 year extension at $10 Mil per based on his 1st half performance. Clearly he lost effectiveness in the second half. Will he return to effectiveness or become another albatross limiting the moves we can make?

 

Perhaps the biggest question is with Sale who is contracted through 2024 for Ace money. He was injured when the contract was signed and has done little for us since. He is a great competitor and was one of the best. The Hope is that he can return to being a quality starter, but it is by no means a surety. Will he improve enough from TJ surgery and Covid to be worth the huge contract?

 

It looks like we may need to add up to 2 starters and a late inning BP arm.

 

Barnes makes $9.4M the next 2 years in lux dollars, which includes the buy out money for the 3rd option year. Yes, that's close to $10M, but not quite. It looks bad, now, but I wouldn't write him off.

 

I would not write Sale off either, but they both are big question marks.

 

Losing Price's deal next winter will help.

 

Losing Richards, Ottavino, Andriese and Perez, this winter, gives us a nice chance to improve without adding any more salary than these guys combined.

 

The ERod cost and choice is a tough one.

[Old Red]

Barnes makes $9.4M the next 2 years in lux dollars, which includes the buy out money for the 3rd option year. Yes, that's close to $10M, but not quite. It looks bad, now, but I wouldn't write him off.

 

I would not write Sale off either, but they both are big question marks.

 

Losing Price's deal next winter will help.

 

Losing Richards, Ottavino, Andriese and Perez, this winter, gives us a nice chance to improve without adding any more salary than these guys combined.

 

The ERod cost and choice is a tough one.

 

If the Red Sox could develope their own pitchers once in awhile they wouldn’t always have to go out looking, and making bad costly mistakes, which they are still paying for with Price.

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox could develope their own pitchers once in awhile they wouldn’t always have to go out looking, and making bad costly mistakes, which they are still paying for with Price.

 

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade.

 

Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too.

 

Seabold and Bello?

[Old Red]

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade.

 

Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too.

 

Seabold and Bello?

 

I understand it’s not easy, but should be easier than what the Sox have done. Whitlock, and Seabold come from other teams. Barnes, and Houck are the only homegrown, and nothing imminent down below.

[Old Red]

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade.

 

Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too.

 

Seabold and Bello?

 

Henry Owens, Trey Ball, Jay Groome, and Kopech were all #1 picks that didn’t pan out. I know Groome got injured, and Kopech was traded, but it would have been nice to hit on one of them. Houck has showed great promise at times, and even Barnes has too also #1 picks, but you have to hit better than they have done.

[Larry Cook]

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade.

 

Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too.

 

Seabold and Bello?

 

This year we saw significant development from some young pitchers. Walters and wickelman for examples,

 

Maybe just maybe Hang’em Chaim is changing our minor league pitching development program. It will still take a few years for these youngsters to develop, if they develop, but for the first time since the early Theo years, I am encouraged by what I am seeing!

[moonslav59]

I understand it’s not easy, but should be easier than what the Sox have done. Whitlock, and Seabold come from other teams. Barnes, and Houck are the only homegrown, and nothing imminent down below.

 

I’m not sure it should be easy, but it shouldn’t be this hard.

 

I still count young pitchers acquired by trade, but I can understand not doing so.

 

I’m really high on Bello.

[moonslav59]

This year we saw significant development from some young pitchers. Walters and wickelman for examples,

 

Maybe just maybe Hang’em Chaim is changing our minor league pitching development program. It will still take a few years for these youngsters to develop, if they develop, but for the first time since the early Theo years, I am encouraged by what I am seeing!

 

Hard to expect a big change overnight, but there are some encouraging signs.

 

Houck & Whitlock

Seabold & Winckowski

Bello, Wilkelman & Walters

Groome & Mata

Murphy & Song

 

I think this group is as good as we've seen in several years.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Rays constantly have good pitching prospects, but it's a myth they churn them out in some pitching machine warehouse that runs nonstop daily shifts. What Tampa does is stockpile young arms via trades, because budget restraints lead to annual deals of roster turnover.

 

The Rays' business plan probably includes a giant board of minor league pitchers they target and monitor throughout each season, while considering trade partners each deadline. It very well could be similar to the boards teams refer to on draft day -- but with pitchers that got away, and still on their most-wanted list someday.

 

Tampa did draft Shane McClanahan in 2018, five picks after the Red Sox took Triston Casas. But it should be noted that 11 other pitchers were picked before Shane went #31 (including another pitcher the Rays took #16 overall, who they swapped for Arozarena). And though McClanahan looks like a stud now, it shouldn't surprise if he's pitching for another club by the time Casas is starring in the big leagues.

[moonslav59]

The Rays constantly have good pitching prospects, but it's a myth they churn them out in some pitching machine warehouse that runs nonstop daily shifts. What Tampa does is stockpile young arms via trades, because budget restraints lead to annual deals of roster turnover.

 

The Rays' business plan probably includes a giant board of minor league pitchers they target and monitor throughout each season, while considering trade partners each deadline. It very well could be similar to the boards teams refer to on draft day -- but with pitchers that got away, and still on their most-wanted list someday.

 

Tampa did draft Shane McClanahan in 2018, five picks after the Red Sox took Triston Casas. But it should be noted that 11 other pitchers were picked before Shane went #31 (including another pitcher the Rays took #16 overall, who they swapped for Arozarena). And though McClanahan looks like a stud now, it shouldn't surprise if he's pitching for another club by the time Casas is starring in the big leagues.

 

I think it is easier to evaluate how good pitchers are in the minors vs in college, and the Rays focus on this area and excel at it.

 

You're right: it's not always about drafting and IFAs.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If the Red Sox could develope their own pitchers once in awhile they wouldn’t always have to go out looking, and making bad costly mistakes, which they are still paying for with Price.

 

 

The last quality starter developed thru the SOX farm was Buchholz. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The last quality starter developed thru the SOX farm was Buchholz. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Not complaining about the SOX 1st draft pick, Mayer, but I'm pretty sure Bloom was hoping to draft Leiter as his 1st pick.

[moonslav59]

The last quality starter developed thru the SOX farm was Buchholz. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Frankie Montas came after Buchholz.

[harmony]

Frankie Montas came after Buchholz.

Frankie Montas was a 20-year-old who had never pitched above Single A when the Red Sox traded the righthander to the White Sox in July 2013. Montas had an ERA near 5.00 over 164 innings in the Boston farm system and did not become a Top 100 prospect until 2015.

 

Perhaps the White Sox deserve credit for the development of Frankie Montas.

[moonslav59]

Frankie Montas was a 20-year-old who had never pitched above Single A when the Red Sox traded the righthander to the White Sox in July 2013. Montas had an ERA near 5.00 over 164 innings in the Boston farm system and did not become a Top 100 prospect until 2015.

 

Perhaps the White Sox deserve credit for the development of Frankie Montas.

 

I thought the point was about who we drafted, since we couldn't count ERod, Whitlock and others as "ours.".

[Hugh2]

Frankie Montas was a 20-year-old who had never pitched above Single A when the Red Sox traded the righthander to the White Sox in July 2013. Montas had an ERA near 5.00 over 164 innings in the Boston farm system and did not become a Top 100 prospect until 2015.

 

Perhaps the White Sox deserve credit for the development of Frankie Montas.

 

Using ERA alone for a single A pitcher who wasn’t even old enough to drink a beer is about as an absurd an argument I’ve heard on here.

[Hugh2]

Ok that’s an exaggeration.

[Hugh2]

Not complaining about the SOX 1st draft pick, Mayer, but I'm pretty sure Bloom was hoping to draft Leiter as his 1st pick.

 

Judging by the looks on their faces and the interviews from the FO after the draft, they were ecstatic to get Mayer. They were in on Leiter because they thought he was more likely to be there. They looked giddy in the war room when Leiter went 2nd. Because at that moment they knew Mayer would fall to them because Detroit had a deal with Jobe. They knew one of Mayer/Leiter would fall to them after Davis went 1, and they looked in celebration mode early.

 

I think if they had the choice, they’d take Mayer over Leiter.

[Larry Cook]

Judging by the looks on their faces and the interviews from the FO after the draft, they were ecstatic to get Mayer. They were in on Leiter because they thought he was more likely to be there. They looked giddy in the war room when Leiter went 2nd. Because at that moment they knew Mayer would fall to them because Detroit had a deal with Jobe. They knew one of Mayer/Leiter would fall to them after Davis went 1, and they looked in celebration mode early.

 

I think if they had the choice, they’d take Mayer over Leiter.

 

You can never go wrong by taking the best player available!

[harmony]

I thought the point was about who we drafted, since we couldn't count ERod, Whitlock and others as "ours.".

Your post was in response to the post: "The last quality starter developed thru the SOX farm was Buchholz."

[harmony]

Using ERA alone for a single A pitcher who wasn’t even old enough to drink a beer is about as an absurd an argument I’ve heard on here.

Well, Frankie Montas was not as young as Tyler Glasnow (and six other pitchers) were that 2013 season in the South Atlantic League:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=pitch&id=54256e41

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=montas001fra