A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Hugh2]

ADD: the reinforcements ready mid-2022 might be a lot better than what we got this year. I suspect Seabold to pushing for the majors and could provide great relief for the rotation.

 

If Richards continues to look solid out of the pen, I'd love to have him back on a 1-year deal to replace the Garrett Whitlock role, and you never know, he may be a guy who can step into a Setup man/Closer role too.

 

Casas bat might catch fire for you in the dog days of summer and I think Connor Wong is a real sleeper pick for a future catcher in Boston. I don't expect Groome to be a serious option right now as I'd have him penned in to spend most of his 2022 in Portland, but if he returns next year and regains some of his velocity back he could fly up to the majors too. Josh Winckockski might find himself on the SP depth chart next year too.

[Nick]

For 2022 I want to strengthen the starting pitching. The rotation may improve naturally with Chris Sale back to full health and Garrett Whitlock making a successful transition to the rotation, but you may be losing E-Rod as well. First thing I do is offer Erod a qualifying offer, if he turns it down you can effectively target another starting pitcher without losing a draft pick. There's no silver bullet in FA, everyone comes with a level of risk vs. reward. Scherzer is still elite but old, Syndergaard could be the steal of the century but he's coming off of TJ.

 

So my rotation is going to look something like this.

 

Sale

Erod/Gausman/Scherzer/Syndergard

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

Next I'm signing a position player that can shore up the defense and elongate a lineup that's too top heavy. I have Carlos Correra in mind, plug him at 2nd with the plan on moving him to SS when Xander walks. Pick up the option on Vazquez and plug Kike into CF.

 

Your lineup becomes

 

Kike CF

Correra 2B

Devers 3B

Bogaerts SS

JDM DH

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Dalbec 1B

Vasquez C

 

If you JDM does not return you can sign Schwarber, which gives you another lefty. Of course you could just sign Schwarber anyways and plug him in LF and move Kike to 2nd.

 

I love your idea of strengthening our starting rotation. I would take chance on Syndergaard myself. It's like rebuilt engine. He'll return to his elite status.

 

I think it's easier to project next year's lineup than going from 2020 to 2021 season.

 

We got tons of answers this year.

 

Devers....capable of winning MVP at some point.

Kike....can play 2B, ideally he's our CF and leadoff batter.

Renfroe....he's our every day RF.

Arroyo....when he's healthy, he's a solid 2B or high value utility player.

Dalbec...If I've been in comma and woke up yesterday, I'd say he's had a pretty good rookie year. Not great, but serviceable.

Schwarber...he can hit. Knowing that we paid $22M for JD, it's easy to stomach whatever we have to pay to sign him, regardless of if JD opts out or not.

Pivetta...not sure how much more upside he has but one of best pick up last off season. 3 more years of team control.

Whitlock...whatever role he pitches in (hopefully a starter), best value for money spent. 5 more years of team control.

Sawamura...two more years of team control, hopefully he'll have learned and gained experience in American baseball.

Darwinzon...he has higher ceiling, you keep working with a lefty don't you?

 

I would love to see the team go over the tax limit by $20M, especially knowing that Price money, JD money (if he stays) and Eovaldi money are coming off the books. Let's hope that players union won't retreat against the owners.

 

I predict Eovaldi will be extended similar to Chris Sale and before Devers. He's becoming a pitcher, not just a thrower.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

ADD: the reinforcements ready mid-2022 might be a lot better than what we got this year. I suspect Seabold to pushing for the majors and could provide great relief for the rotation.

 

If Richards continues to look solid out of the pen, I'd love to have him back on a 1-year deal to replace the Garrett Whitlock role, and you never know, he may be a guy who can step into a Setup man/Closer role too.

 

Casas bat might catch fire for you in the dog days of summer and I think Connor Wong is a real sleeper pick for a future catcher in Boston. I don't expect Groome to be a serious option right now as I'd have him penned in to spend most of his 2022 in Portland, but if he returns next year and regains some of his velocity back he could fly up to the majors too. Josh Winckockski might find himself on the SP depth chart next year too.

 

My thoughts are the rotation will have Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Pivetta, and an acquisiton via either free agent or trade. (This is only in the order I thought of them, not any #1, #2, crap.)

 

Bullpen will have some combination of Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Hernandez, Richards, Davis, Sawamura, Valdez and Brasier. I prefer both Whitlock and Houck in the bullpen, but I seriously doubt that happens.

 

I think Valdez still has an option left and Davis might as well.

 

Also, did anyone know Davis' nickname is Big Fudge? Not sure how I feel about that...

[notin]

For 2022 I want to strengthen the starting pitching. The rotation may improve naturally with Chris Sale back to full health and Garrett Whitlock making a successful transition to the rotation, but you may be losing E-Rod as well. First thing I do is offer Erod a qualifying offer, if he turns it down you can effectively target another starting pitcher without losing a draft pick. There's no silver bullet in FA, everyone comes with a level of risk vs. reward. Scherzer is still elite but old, Syndergaard could be the steal of the century but he's coming off of TJ.

 

So my rotation is going to look something like this.

 

Sale

Erod/Gausman/Scherzer/Syndergard

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

Next I'm signing a position player that can shore up the defense and elongate a lineup that's too top heavy. I have Carlos Correra in mind, plug him at 2nd with the plan on moving him to SS when Xander walks. Pick up the option on Vazquez and plug Kike into CF.

 

Your lineup becomes

 

Kike CF

Correra 2B

Devers 3B

Bogaerts SS

JDM DH

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Dalbec 1B

Vasquez C

 

If you JDM does not return you can sign Schwarber, which gives you another lefty. Of course you could just sign Schwarber anyways and plug him in LF and move Kike to 2nd.

 

I do think there is a good possibility of the JDM at DH, Schwarber in LF, Verdugo in CF, Hernandez to 2b lineup. Verdugo’s play was subpar in CF even before Monday’s disaster, but apparently that has been his most frequent position throughout his career. I have my doubts Correa would take a deal to play 2b as long as any other team wanted him as a SS.

 

If Verdugo is in CF, maybe the Sox fourth outfielder could be Jeisson Rosario. He’s not exactly thumping at Portland, but has a decent OBP and is reportedly a very exciting defensive player.

 

One thing I find odd is very few seem to see Duran in the Sox future. (And some of those who do have him penciled in as a 4th outfielder.) I know I don’t, and think he’s best utilized as trade bait. But I assumed I’d be a minority there…

[mvp 78]

Also, did anyone know Davis' nickname is Big Fudge? Not sure how I feel about that...

 

I thought that was just a Section 10 thing?

[Nick]

I do think there is a good possibility of the JDM at DH, Schwarber in LF, Verdugo in CF, Hernandez to 2b lineup. Verdugo’s play was subpar in CF even before Monday’s disaster, but apparently that has been his most frequent position throughout his career. I have my doubts Correa would take a deal to play 2b as long as any other team wanted him as a SS.

 

If Verdugo is in CF, maybe the Sox fourth outfielder could be Jeisson Rosario. He’s not exactly thumping at Portland, but has a decent OBP and is reportedly a very exciting defensive player.

 

One thing I find odd is very few seem to see Duran in the Sox future. (And some of those who do have him penciled in as a 4th outfielder.) I know I don’t, and think he’s best utilized as trade bait. But I assumed I’d be a minority there…

 

Bloom on Duran in May...."He has chance to be a great player"

 

Now he's a trade bait?

 

I thought Bloom was the guy when it came to unearthing diamond in the rough.

[mvp 78]

I do think there is a good possibility of the JDM at DH, Schwarber in LF, Verdugo in CF, Hernandez to 2b lineup. Verdugo’s play was subpar in CF even before Monday’s disaster, but apparently that has been his most frequent position throughout his career. I have my doubts Correa would take a deal to play 2b as long as any other team wanted him as a SS.

 

If Verdugo is in CF, maybe the Sox fourth outfielder could be Jeisson Rosario. He’s not exactly thumping at Portland, but has a decent OBP and is reportedly a very exciting defensive player.

 

One thing I find odd is very few seem to see Duran in the Sox future. (And some of those who do have him penciled in as a 4th outfielder.) I know I don’t, and think he’s best utilized as trade bait. But I assumed I’d be a minority there…

 

Verdugo came up in the Dodgers system as a CFer. I would suggest that the results have been bad.

 

-4.8 UZR/150 career CF

9 UZR/150 career LF

-0.3 UZR/150 career RF

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

One thing I find odd is very few seem to see Duran in the Sox future. (And some of those who do have him penciled in as a 4th outfielder.) I know I don’t, and think he’s best utilized as trade bait. But I assumed I’d be a minority there…

 

If we're to believe Bloom -- and some fans really want to -- then Duran won't just be a big leaguer, but a star. For such a transition, perhaps the initial plan will be for a regular left-right platoon with Arroyo, with Kike starting every game, either in CF or at 2B. Schwarber and JD will alternate at LF/DH.

 

That makes Verdugo, not Duran, the trade bait.

 

Of course, such alignments don't upgrade the defense. If that's really a goal, the Sox will need different players...

[mvp 78]

Bloom on Duran in May...."He has chance to be a great player"

 

Now he's a trade bait?

 

I thought Bloom was the guy when it came to unearthing diamond in the rough.

 

Did Bloom say he was trade bait?

[notin]

Bloom on Duran in May...."He has chance to be a great player"

 

Now he's a trade bait?

 

I thought Bloom was the guy when it came to unearthing diamond in the rough.

 

Bloom and notin do not always agree. Do not assume the opinion of either is the opinion of both…

[notin]

Verdugo came up in the Dodgers system as a CFer. I would suggest that the results have been bad.

 

-4.8 UZR/150 career CF

9 UZR/150 career LF

-0.3 UZR/150 career RF

 

How are Duran’s numbers?

 

Right now these two are the leading candidates to play CF in Fenway next year…

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom and notin do not always agree. Do not assume the opinion of either is the opinion of both…

 

Personally, I don't trust what anyone says, including myself...

[Bellhorn04]

How are Duran’s numbers?

 

Right now these two are the leading candidates to play CF in Fenway next year…

 

Kike not in the mix?

[notin]

Kike not in the mix?

 

I probably should have said among the leading candidates.

 

But say Kike - who grades well at 2b using DRS - does play CF. That still leaves only one starting OF spot for Verdugo and Duran and possibly Schwarber.

 

So what is a good recommendation for Verdugo and/or Duran? If one has to be trade bait, what’s the preference?

 

BTV does give Verdugo a higher surplus value - 41.0 to 34.8. But then, I think he is also the superior player in several aspects of the game…

[notin]

Bloom on Duran in May...."He has chance to be a great player"

 

Now he's a trade bait?

 

I thought Bloom was the guy when it came to unearthing diamond in the rough.

 

I wouldn’t expect Bloom to say anything else about Duran. Did you expect a blunt comment like “Duran gets by in the minors with numbers artificially inflated by unsustainable BABIP”?

 

I’m not saying he is being disingenuous. But there is a possibility that it’s also just salesmanship…

[Nick]

Did Bloom say he was trade bait?

 

come on man....this was in response to a poster. you have to follow the chain of communication.

[Nick]

I wouldn’t expect Bloom to say anything else about Duran. Did you expect a blunt comment like “Duran gets by in the minors with numbers artificially inflated by unsustainable BABIP”?

 

I’m not saying he is being disingenuous. But there is a possibility that it’s also just salesmanship…

 

But I have not heard him say that about another player. He was quoted in MassLive...you know with "********, ********, ********"

[Nick]

I trust what Bloom actually says before ME.

[moonslav59]

I do think there is a good possibility of the JDM at DH, Schwarber in LF, Verdugo in CF, Hernandez to 2b lineup. Verdugo’s play was subpar in CF even before Monday’s disaster, but apparently that has been his most frequent position throughout his career. I have my doubts Correa would take a deal to play 2b as long as any other team wanted him as a SS.

 

If Verdugo is in CF, maybe the Sox fourth outfielder could be Jeisson Rosario. He’s not exactly thumping at Portland, but has a decent OBP and is reportedly a very exciting defensive player.

 

One thing I find odd is very few seem to see Duran in the Sox future. (And some of those who do have him penciled in as a 4th outfielder.) I know I don’t, and think he’s best utilized as trade bait. But I assumed I’d be a minority there…

 

Cora did call Kike the best defensive 2B in MLB, so maybe he doesn't love him in CF as much as I do.

 

Your points here could very well come true.

[notin]

But I have not heard him say that about another player. He was quoted in MassLive...you know with "********, ********, ********"

 

Maybe he meant it. Maybe he didn’t. Maybe he was answering the question of why Duran hasn’t been called up yet (which I believe he was in this case) and he had to say something.

 

The real bottom line is the Sox will have a glut of corner OF options - especially if they put Schwarber into that mix - and there may be nowhere for Duran to play. Possibly Verdugo as well.

 

If that’s the case, should they force someone into CF and hope it works out or deal from their strength to fill other holes with better fits?

[moonslav59]

For 2022 I want to strengthen the starting pitching. The rotation may improve naturally with Chris Sale back to full health and Garrett Whitlock making a successful transition to the rotation, but you may be losing E-Rod as well. First thing I do is offer Erod a qualifying offer, if he turns it down you can effectively target another starting pitcher without losing a draft pick. There's no silver bullet in FA, everyone comes with a level of risk vs. reward. Scherzer is still elite but old, Syndergaard could be the steal of the century but he's coming off of TJ.

 

So my rotation is going to look something like this.

 

Sale

Erod/Gausman/Scherzer/Syndergard

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

Next I'm signing a position player that can shore up the defense and elongate a lineup that's too top heavy. I have Carlos Correra in mind, plug him at 2nd with the plan on moving him to SS when Xander walks. Pick up the option on Vazquez and plug Kike into CF.

 

Your lineup becomes

 

Kike CF

Correra 2B

Devers 3B

Bogaerts SS

JDM DH

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Dalbec 1B

Vasquez C

 

If you JDM does not return you can sign Schwarber, which gives you another lefty. Of course you could just sign Schwarber anyways and plug him in LF and move Kike to 2nd.

 

As for now, I see Whitlock as a starter in 2022 more than Houck. I think Houck could be a fine closer or top set-up man, but he could also do very well as a starter, especially if he diversifies his pitches.

 

Bringing ERod back would be fine with me, but he will likely not improve our rotation over 2021, unless he pitches like 2018-2019 and goes deeper into his starts.

 

I hate the idea of signing a 5th starter. I always hate that.

 

I'd like to see us acquire a solid 1/2 slot pitcher, but that is not easy. We can pay large and long for Gausman or Syndergaard, but they do not seem like the type you wait years to go big on.

 

I think the better idea is to try and get a shorter term deal with an aging stud like Scherzer or even Verlander/Greinke/Kershaw (not all that old).

 

We also need to fill a big slot or two in the pen, even with Houck taking Whitlock's place.

 

I like R Iglesias, but he's going to cost a lot. We may end up trading for pen help.

[Bellhorn04]

I hate the idea of signing a 5th starter. I always hate that.

 

That suggests you hated Bloom's Perez signings.

[oldtimer]

As for now, I see Whitlock as a starter in 2022 more than Houck. I think Houck could be a fine closer or top set-up man, but he could also do very well as a starter, especially if he diversifies his pitches.

 

Bringing ERod back would be fine with me, but he will likely not improve our rotation over 2021, unless he pitches like 2018-2019 and goes deeper into his starts.

 

I hate the idea of signing a 5th starter. I always hate that.

 

I'd like to see us acquire a solid 1/2 slot pitcher, but that is not easy. We can pay large and long for Gausman or Syndergaard, but they do not seem like the type you wait years to go big on.

 

I think the better idea is to try and get a shorter term deal with an aging stud like Scherzer or even Verlander/Greinke/Kershaw (not all that old).

 

We also need to fill a big slot or two in the pen, even with Houck taking Whitlock's place.

 

I like R Iglesias, but he's going to cost a lot. We may end up trading for pen help.

 

With E-Rod as a FA, we have to see what we can get for equal money. I'm not for or against him but do wonder if we can get a better fit. I'll accept whatever Bloom and the front office without complaint as they are in the best position to make that judgment.

 

I would pay for a top reliever. Competition for Iglesias will push his cost way up but he still may be the best choice for us. Maybe Robles will come through enough to fill a slot on the roster. He has the velo and the stuff. His problem has been command which might be a reflection of his lack of composure. I see him as the best bet among our crop of substandard relievers. We need 13 total pitchers and he might just make the team where Davis, Valdez and Peacock probably will not.

[moonslav59]

That suggests you hated Bloom's Perez signings.

 

Yes, but when your budget is restricted to about $34M and you have about 10-15 slots to fill on the 40 man roster, you have to get somebody.

[moonslav59]

Valdez and Davis have options remaining, next year, so we should view them as AAA depth that will surely be used, often.

 

Robles is a FA with 0 options..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wouldn’t expect Bloom to say anything else about Duran. Did you expect a blunt comment like “Duran gets by in the minors with numbers artificially inflated by unsustainable BABIP”?

 

I’m not saying he is being disingenuous. But there is a possibility that it’s also just salesmanship…

 

Like I said, some fans really want to believe him...

 

... but we can't help it, since we're used to straight shooters like his predecessor, who once told us, "They're just prospects" -- before trading most of them.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn’t expect Bloom to say anything else about Duran. Did you expect a blunt comment like “Duran gets by in the minors with numbers artific against the Raysially inflated by unsustainable BABIP”?

 

I’m not saying he is being disingenuous. But there is a possibility that it’s also just salesmanship…

 

Duran has speed and his bat will likely come around. He probably would have made the catch that Verdugo couldn't get to lose the other night and probably the one Santana missed last night that Renfroe saved with his incredible throw. I wouldn't trade either Verdugo, who can hit and play left field or Duran who could fill in and get plenty of PT in 2022. I would find a way to cut JDM loose and play Schwaber primarily in the DH role.

[notin]

Like I said, some fans really want to believe him...

 

... but we can't help it, since we're used to straight shooters like his predecessor, who once told us, "They're just prospects" -- before trading most of them.

 

And maybe he loves Duran.

 

It’s tough to piece together next year’s OF, especially if they do keep Duran. Maybe we see Schwarber at 1b, Kike ar 2b, Verdugo in LF, and Duran in CF…

[mvp 78]

How are Duran’s numbers?

 

Right now these two are the leading candidates to play CF in Fenway next year…

 

Ugly. UZR/150 really fluctuates over a small sample size, but he's been worse than Verdugo.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn’t expect Bloom to say anything else about Duran. Did you expect a blunt comment like “Duran gets by in the minors with numbers artificially inflated by unsustainable BABIP”?

 

I’m not saying he is being disingenuous. But there is a possibility that it’s also just salesmanship…

 

And saying "he has a chance to be a great player" doesn't mean he's going to pan out.