A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

Devers bottom hand coming off the bat has been going on for a while, not just game 1. Game 1 was more prounced, but he can still hit. It only happens on a swing and miss.

 

True, and he hit another HR on a ball outside the K zone.

 

Apparently, some want to try and change who he is at the plate: a natural born hitter.

[Larry Cook]

True, and he hit another HR on a ball outside the K zone.

 

Apparently, some want to try and change who he is at the plate: a natural born hitter.

 

Devers and bogey are the cornerstones of our current roster!

[YastrzemskI]

Devers and bogey are the cornerstones of our current roster!

 

Gotta throw JD in there.

[Bellhorn04]

Gotta throw JD in there.

 

No, the majority want him gone. Last night a reminder he can still be useful at times...

[Maxbialystock]

No, the majority want him gone. Last night a reminder he can still be useful at times...

 

Without JDM in game 1, the Rays shut down the Sox 5-0. With JDM in game 2, the Sox score 14 and win 14-6 despite a horrendous start by Chris Sale.

 

That exaggerates the reality of course, but the real point is that Cora has been right to try to cram as many good bats into the lineup as he can. Thus, as I keep saying, with no DH in the final series vs. the Nats, Schwarber and JDM started all three games.

 

In 3 postseason games so far, no Sox errors and, last night, a pretty nifty grab by Verdugo.

[Maxbialystock]

In three postseason games so far,

 

Houck has 6.2 innings and an ERA of 1.50

Eovaldi 5.1 and 1.69

Pivetta 4.2 and 5.69

Robles 2 and 0.0

ERod 1.2 and 10.8

Brasier 1.2 and 0.0

Ottavino 1 and 0.0

Barnes 1 and 0.0

Sale 1 and 45.00

Whitlock 1 and 9.00

Taylor .1 and 0.0

Richards .1 and 0.0

 

In those 3 games the Sox are 2-1 vs. the Yankees and the Rays, despite having just one good starter, Eovaldi. ERod had to be pulled after 1.2 innings vs. the Rays and Sale after 1 inning vs. the Rays.

 

This year's Sox are all about hitting and the bullpen. The rotation is a shambles, but, I have to admit, the defense is at least error free in three games--plus a nifty grab last night by Verdugo.

 

Cash is a good manager, but Cora is a maestro.

[notin]

In three postseason games so far,

 

Houck has 6.2 innings and an ERA of 1.50

Eovaldi 5.1 and 1.69

Pivetta 4.2 and 5.69

Robles 2 and 0.0

ERod 1.2 and 10.8

Brasier 1.2 and 0.0

Ottavino 1 and 0.0

Barnes 1 and 0.0

Sale 1 and 45.00

Whitlock 1 and 9.00

Taylor .1 and 0.0

Richards .1 and 0.0

 

In those 3 games the Sox are 2-1 vs. the Yankees and the Rays, despite having just one good starter, Eovaldi. ERod had to be pulled after 1.2 innings vs. the Rays and Sale after 1 inning vs. the Rays.

 

This year's Sox are all about hitting and the bullpen. The rotation is a shambles, but, I have to admit, the defense is at least error free in three games--plus a nifty grab last night by Verdugo.

 

Cash is a good manager, but Cora is a maestro.

 

 

Based on 3 starts?

[notin]

Without JDM in game 1, the Rays shut down the Sox 5-0. With JDM in game 2, the Sox score 14 and win 14-6 despite a horrendous start by Chris Sale.

 

That exaggerates the reality of course, but the real point is that Cora has been right to try to cram as many good bats into the lineup as he can. Thus, as I keep saying, with no DH in the final series vs. the Nats, Schwarber and JDM started all three games.

 

In 3 postseason games so far, no Sox errors and, last night, a pretty nifty grab by Verdugo.

 

 

Yeah but that’s just official scorer BS.

 

Really Hernandez deserved an error on Franco’s “double” in the first inning of game one…

[Maxbialystock]

Based on 3 starts?

 

You betcha. The rule of recency counts extra in the postseason. Moreover, Sale has always stunk in the postseason and stunk again last Sunday in a crucial game vs. the Nats. Houck, meanwhile, has gone in the exact opposite direction and has been magnificent in long and short relief. Eovaldi was our ace all season long and was superb Tuesday vs. the Yankees in the wild card game. ERod and Pivetta these days are a crap shoot.

 

If you think I am being unfair to the rotation, ask yourself this question. Why else would Cora have 13 freaking pitchers on his postseason roster when there are all those travel days built into the schedule? He expected/expects to need his bullpen early and often, and he has been dead right.

 

The story of this season has been the bullpen and the hitting. I did have high hopes for the rotation when Sale returned and ERod was looking better (Aug and Sep). Houck was looking good, but was dropped from the rotation the last two weeks because of extra days off the Sox had earned. Pivetta was up and down. Richards and Perez, thankfully, were sent to the bullpen, and early on (9 games) Richards thrived there.

 

When the rotation started to fade late and the bullpen also struggled, Cora relied on Whitlock, Valdez, and Richards for long relief, which worked. Houck has demonstrated it still works. Cora has yet to use Whitlock (second highest WAR on the Sox pitching staff this year) in the ALDS, but he did use Pivetta instead in game 1.

 

Eovaldi will obviously start game 3, and ERod is the inevitable choice for game 4--no doubt again going against McClanahn, giving the Rays a big edge.

 

If Eovaldi wins game 3 and the Rays win game 4, I'm pretty sure Houck starts game 5 on 5 days rest and Sale goes to the bullpen.

[Maxbialystock]

Yeah but that’s just official scorer BS.

 

Really Hernandez deserved an error on Franco’s “double” in the first inning of game one…

 

I would have called it an error as well. That said, no other bad plays by the Sox outfield and one very good one--Verdugo's insane grab of the foul fly by Cruz. I'm guessing Arroyo didn't get the error last night because the scorer thought the runner would have been safe anyway.

[moonslav59]

Moreover, Sale has always stunk in the postseason

 

A 4.11 ERA vs the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers in the 2018 playoffs is not "stunk."

 

He only played in 1 playoff series before 2018, and yes, he stunk in that one.

 

These tiny sample size proclamations confound me.

 

[notin]

A 4.11 ERA vs the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers in the 2018 playoffs is not "stunk."

 

He only played in 1 playoff series before 2018, and yes, he stunk in that one.

 

These tiny sample size proclamations confound me.

 

 

No s***.

 

26 innings spread out over 5 seasons? That’s the “evidence”.

 

And that one pre-2017 series that makes up about 1/3 of his career post-season innings came against some garbage can-thumping ne’er-do-wells, and that might be heavily impacting those numbers in that series. Also, Sale from 2017 has zero relevance today…

Edited October 9, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

 

The story of this season has been the bullpen and the hitting.

 

I think you are short-changing our starters.

 

Over the first two months of the season, our starters were top 5 or 6 in IP, and while the pen was doing fine, too, it was mostly a 2 man show: Barnes and Whitlock.

 

Because Perez has looks so awful over the past 2 months, I think many have forgotten how much he meant to our hot start to the season. Hell, the team is still 12-10 in his 22 starts! He was our best SP'er up to June 8th.

7-4 (team record) 3.09 (6.58 OPS against)

11 starts is 1/3of a season.

 

The team is 19-12 in ERod starts, and it's not all because of the pen and run support. ERod took off when Perez fell off the cliff. The team went 11-7 in his last 18 starts led by his 3.60 ERA. That's over half a season.

 

As bad as Sale has looked, recently, let's not forget, he came back strong and led the team to a 7-2 record and 3.16 ERA.

 

I don't need to talk about Eovaldi.

 

This season has seen the bats, the pen and the rotation lead us for long stretches at a time.

 

We've also seen one of the areas implode for long stretches, and when 2 or more were imploding at the same time, we looked like we might miss the playoffs, but we righted the ship and made it to where we are, today.

 

Most certainly, the rotation is our weak point at the moment, but that could change at any moment- just as it has all year long. Just as the bats awoke, last night, we all know they could go silent tomorrow.

 

The pen has been a big reason we are where we are, today, but I don't think we should short change our starters' role in our success, because of a couple late season and post season disasters.

 

Some AL fWAR numbers to ponder:

 

Sox placed...

 

SP'ers

3rd at 14.6 (just 0.2 from NYY)

 

RP'ers

6th at 4.6 (just 0.1 from LAA, but 2.4 from 4th place)

 

Everyday Players

5th at 23.2 (2.1 from CWS)

 

Breaking the season into 3 parts:

 

APR-May

3rd SP 6.5

4th RP 2.6

 

JUN-JUL

6th RP 1.4

7th SP 2.9

 

AUG-OCT

3rd SP 5.4

11th 1.0

 

 

 

[illinoisredsox]

Yeah but that’s just official scorer BS.

 

Really Hernandez deserved an error on Franco’s “double” in the first inning of game one…

 

Agree he should have been charged with an error, but Franco was going to get 2 bases on that even it he had fielded it cleanly. What should not have happened is Arozarena scoring on that hit; the bobble did allow that to happen and that's why the error should have been charged.

[illinoisredsox]

I would have called it an error as well. That said, no other bad plays by the Sox outfield and one very good one--Verdugo's insane grab of the foul fly by Cruz. I'm guessing Arroyo didn't get the error last night because the scorer thought the runner would have been safe anyway.

Arroyo's was not a routine play. That ball had some crazy spin on it plus second base itself was in play there. I'm also not sure how far he had to come to try and and make it. I doubt he was in a normal infield position. It's not like he was going to make that play 99 times out of 100.

[moonslav59]

Arroyo's was not a routine play. That ball had some crazy spin on it plus second base itself was in play there. I'm also not sure how far he had to come to try and and make it. I doubt he was in a normal infield position. It's not like he was going to make that play 99 times out of 100.

 

Is 99 out of a 100 the threshold for an error to be called?

[moonslav59]

Some tiny sample sizes here...

 

Playoff OPS

 

2.400 JD

1.706 Bogey

1.500 Plawecki (1GIDP)

1.423 Kike

1.231 Dugo (1 GIDP)

.930 Schwarber

.929 Devers

 

.600 Vaz

.558 Renfroe (3 GIDP)

.362 Arroyo

.000 Dalbec (1 GIDP), Santana, Shaw

 

IP Pitcher ERA

6.0 Houck 1.50

5.1 Eovaldi 1.69

4.2 Pivetta 5.79

2.0 Robles 0.00

1.2 Brasier 0.0

1.2 ERod 10.80

1.0 Barnes & Ottavino 0.00

1.0 Whitlock 9.00

1.0 C Sale 45.00

Edited October 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

A 4.11 ERA vs the Yanks, Astros and Dodgers in the 2018 playoffs is not "stunk."

 

He only played in 1 playoff series before 2018, and yes, he stunk in that one.

 

These tiny sample size proclamations confound me.

 

 

His regular season ERA in 2018 was 2.11, basically half what it was in the postseason. Aces rise to the occasion in the postseason. Think Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Eovaldi--but not Price. Sale has pitched 26 postseason innings and given up 21 runs. Pedro pitched 96 postseason innings and had an ERA of 3.46. He stunk, however, in 2003 and 2004 and 2009 (with the Phillies).

Edited October 9, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

His regular season ERA in 2018 was 2.11, basically half what it was in the postseason. Aces rise to the occasion in the postseason. Think Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Eovaldi--but not Price.

 

This may come as a shock to you, but, unless you pitched for the Yankees in their heyday, your postseason stat samplings are normally small. To date Sale has pitched 45 postseason innings and given up 41 runs.

 

You are changing your point. You said he has "always stunk in the playoffs," when maybe you meant he has always done worse than his regular season once in the playoffs.

 

4.11 does not stink, and it was his largest playoff sample size of any year.

 

Nobody will dispute he does worse than his norm or that his overall post seasons stats suck, especially now that his 2021 numbers are factored in, but he has not always stunk. That was the only thing I disputed.

 

As for small sample sizes, I am the king of pointing out small sample sizes carry little weight, and I made that point about your proclamation that Sale has always stunk in the playoffs.

 

I mentioned he had 4 starts before this year. You point about always stinking implies before 2021. Now, you are adding 2021 into your point about him always stinking. BTW, it's still a tiny sample size.

Edited October 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[illinoisredsox]

Is 99 out of a 100 the threshold for an error to be called?

 

My point was that it was not a routine play or even a play that required ordinary effort. He had to hard charge a slow hit ball with lots of spin while avoiding second base and then making a strong throw. Too many here seem to think that these guys are going to make every play and if they don’t it’s an error.

 

The Sox missed enough fairly routine plays that weren’t called errors this year; this was not like those.

[moonslav59]

My point was that it was not a routine play or even a play that required ordinary effort. He had to hard charge a slow hit ball with lots of spin while avoiding second base and then making a strong throw. Too many here seem to think that these guys are going to make every play and if they don’t it’s an error.

 

The Sox missed enough fairly routine plays that weren’t called errors this year; this was not like those.

 

Agreed. I thought this play in questions was maybe 50-50, so no error was okay with me, and yes, we've had way more than our share of worse no error calls than that one, this year.

[notin]

Is 99 out of a 100 the threshold for an error to be called?

 

Arroyo was not getting an out on that play, although his repeated attempts to pick it up and boot it like he was trying to grab a live rabbit that had scampered on to the field probably necessitated giving him some sort of defensive miscue. At the very least, given how hard that ball was to pick up, no one suspected Brasier of using any sort of sticky substance...

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Damn last night was fun watching our boys swell up. I didn't hug a cat tree but I woke the wife up with JD's bomb. Normally she doesn't complain, last night was a bit much I guess.

[moonslav59]

What a season this has been.

 

Keeping it going, at least another round would be so sweet!

 

One game at a time, guys!

 

Win tonight!

[Larry Cook]

We got about 45 percent of the way through this game 4 before we started running into issues.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox now in the ALCS, having beaten both the Yankees and Rays!!! This is already a great season, but the weird thing is they have a real shot at the WS. The hitting is the best it's been all season. And, believe it or not, the Sox have the lowest ERA--despite having to play five games--of the five AL teams in the postseason (including the Yankees).

[Maxbialystock]

We got about 45 percent of the way through this game 4 before we started running into issues.

 

What do you mean by issues? Did everyone come down with COVID? Did Eovaldi's arm fall off?

 

I saw no "issues" in game 4. I did see a terrific rally by the Sox against McClanahan, the Rays ace, and after that I saw Tampa climb back into the game with great relief pitching and some hitting--to tying it up in the 8th with 2 runs. They have only done that all season long. Then I saw Whitlock shut them down for the 8th and 9th and Kike drive in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th, which is what the Sox have done all year long.

 

By "issues" do you mean you expected the Rays to roll over and play dead tonight?

[moonslav59]

Sox now in the ALCS, having beaten both the Yankees and Rays!!! This is already a great season, but the weird thing is they have a real shot at the WS. The hitting is the best it's been all season. And, believe it or not, the Sox have the lowest ERA--despite having to play five games--of the five AL teams in the postseason (including the Yankees).

 

Our pitching has been maligned all year.

 

I'm not going to pretend I felt is was good, but it was not as bad as many felt it was.

 

Our starters had a better fWAR than the Rays.

 

Our pen was great, then imploded, then got good again.

 

Our bats are king.

[oldtimer]

Our pitching has been maligned all year.

 

I'm not going to pretend I felt is was good, but it was not as bad as many felt it was.

 

Our starters had a better fWAR than the Rays.

 

Our pen was great, then imploded, then got good again.

 

Our bats are king.

 

Both staffs were tired going into last night. E-Rod gave us a big lift with 5 solid innings, where we got to them for 5. Cora made the best pitching moves available, with Houck, Taylor, Brasier and finally Whitlock. Give the Rays hitters credit for battling back against some tired pitchers who they had just recently seen. Thank Boom for Whitlock.

 

the 9th was a great demonstration of small ball. The Rays were down to a good but not great reliever. Vaz led off with a single and Cora got a well executed but from Arroyo, moving Vaz into scoring position. Then Cora pinch hit Shaw for Dalbec assuming Shaw was a lower strike out risk. Shaw put the ball in play and we got a break when the throw to first took a tough hop. Men at 1st and third one out. Cora subbed Santana in to put speed and third and Shaw took second on defensive indifference. Now Cash was faced with pitching to Kike or putting him on and facing Devers. The rest went our way.

[moonslav59]

We were playing our 4th game in 6 days and 5th game in 8 days, so some of our pitchers should not have been tired.

 

I liked the choice of going to Houck, early, even though he was not all that "fresh" and sputtered a little.

 

We should be well rested for Friday's game.