A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[maglines]

What a great thought. But not sure Brewers in the market. Hader would definitely be upgrade. Right now Whitlock seems to be the best option for high leverage closes

[Maxbialystock]

That's just silly. It would be true if players could either hit or field but not both.

 

So if the Sox moved Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to 1B, therefore keeping both bats in the lineup, and then replaced Bobby Dalbec (.786) with new shortstop Brandon Crawford (.883), the hitting is now worse? I added .100 OPS points and a Gold Glove caliber defender to the middle infield, but somehow this is worse?

 

I have never been against shifting players to a new position, but I do trust management--you know, the guys who have won 4 WS after the 86 year drought--to make those decisions.

 

And guess what? Devers has owned 3b since 2017 and Bogey SS since 2014.

 

As for Crawford, he plays for the Giants, is 34 to Bogey's 29, and isn't nearly the hitter Bogey is--and probably isn't the hitter Dalbec (who is 10 years younger and a whole lot cheaper) is.

[maglines]

Crawford just got extended by the Giants. He will retire a Giant. Maybe with 4 rings.

[Nick]

Crawford just got extended by the Giants. He will retire a Giant. Maybe with 4 rings.

 

Corey Seager of Dodgers becomes a FA after this year.

He's making $13.75M this year and has the same agent, Boras. Maybe we should go after him. Can we get him for $20M?

 

Carlos Correra of Astros also becomes a FA after this year.

 

He's making $11.7M this year.

 

Tim Anderson of White Sox is signed through 2024 (including 2 options) on a team friendly contract.

 

His AAV is $4.167M. Why would they want Xander? They have enough offense.

 

Oakland A's would not be interested in shortstop making $20M that's looking for a big pay day.

 

Willy Adames of Brewers is making $950K with 3 more years of team control. His ops is .905 in 323 at bats.

 

Brandon Crawford of Giants has two year deal at $32M for 2022/2023.

 

Dansby Swanson of Braves will become a free agent at the end of 2022, his last arbitration year. He's making $6M this year.

Would Braves be interested in Xander?

 

Gregorius of Phillies really stuck it to them garnering a two year $28M deal which will expire after 2022.

Would Phillies look for higher priced FA in Xander?

 

Is Kyle Farmer of Reds playing out of position? He has three more years of team control.

 

Soooo, who is going to give Xander $150M/6 years? Will the Sox bid against itself like we've done in the past? How much is as Bora says being the "face of Red Sox" worth?

 

I think Boras is unofficially negotiating with Red Sox

[Nick]

No one has suggested ONE SINGLE DESTINATION for Xander when he opts out. Will it be the Yankees or will Red Sox bid against themselves? For all your opt outers, can you name some possible destinations? Edited September 15, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Who said "replaced?"

 

If Devers and Dalbec had worked harder on their defense last offseason and during this season, the team would be better off.

 

1. We don't know how hard they worked over the winter.

2. Practice may not improve focus, concentration or other factors involved with defense beyond just raw skills and creating and maintaining routines.

 

I'm not doubting that the players we have, now, could not be better or get better, but that does not make Max's point meritless. He never said we claimed we had to replace players to improve on defense.

[moonslav59]

No one has suggested ONE SINGLE DESTINATION for Xander when he opts out. Will it be the Yankees or will Red Sox bid against themselves? For all your opt outers, can you name some possible destinations?

 

We have to wait to see who signs this winter, and who is left with a hole.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox had better defense, chances are the hitting would suck, which is why these John Henry Sox, the most successful in Sox history, recruit hitters first and fielders a distant second.

 

Bogey, one of your favorite targets, has the highest overall WAR on the team.

 

My targets? I actually like Xander's defense more than most other posters.

[moonslav59]

My targets? I actually like Xander's defense more than most other posters.

 

He's been one of my targets, but not during this season.

 

Bogey can play 2B or 3B and our offense does not get worse, depending on who plays SS.

[Nick]

We have to wait to see who signs this winter, and who is left with a hole.

 

I just wanted to point out that I don't believe there are as many destinations as many think for Xander based on his defensive metrics.

 

Just because a team loses a shortstop doesn't guaranty that Xander replaces him.

 

Many teams will think it's wiser to spend say $150M/6 on another position/pitcher. That's what I want the Sox to do.

Edited September 15, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

I have never been against shifting players to a new position, but I do trust management--you know, the guys who have won 4 WS after the 86 year drought--to make those decisions.

 

And guess what? Devers has owned 3b since 2017 and Bogey SS since 2014.

 

As for Crawford, he plays for the Giants, is 34 to Bogey's 29, and isn't nearly the hitter Bogey is--and probably isn't the hitter Dalbec (who is 10 years younger and a whole lot cheaper) is.

 

Well, his OPS does make a very good argument that this year, Crawford certainly is a better hitter than Dalbec.

 

And while the money is always a realisitic concern, the point is it is very possible to make the defene better while also making the offense better. Just because Bogaerts has played SS since 2014 does not make him a good defensive shortstop; it just means a certain attribute of his game - in this case, his bat - made him the best option because he had to be in the lineup. Derek Jeter played shortstop in the Bronx for 20 years. There were no defensive metrics for his first 7 years, at least none that I have access to, but his last 13 seasons were all very poor defensive ones. But does the fact that he played there for 20 years make him a good defensive player? ARod had better defensive metrics at shortstop (and was a better defensive player), but which one did management move to third base? Do you agree with that decision?

[notin]

No one has suggested ONE SINGLE DESTINATION for Xander when he opts out. Will it be the Yankees or will Red Sox bid against themselves? For all your opt outers, can you name some possible destinations?

 

A lot will depend on the carousel of shortstops this winter. I do not buy the argument that all the other teams are all set at shortstop and no one will be interested. Heck, sometimes teams re-arrange positions to fit in a star shortstop. (Semien to 2B in Toronto this season. Baez moving to 2B for the Mets. And of course, ARod moving to 3b.)

 

But if you like, San Francisco is certainly an option, with Crawford leaving this year. Philadephia is another. Possibly Atlanta, as Swanson will also be FA after 2022 (although they do have a prospect named Braden Shewmake who might step in.) The Cubs are another possibility. And Houston, who will be without Correa.

 

I actually think the Yankees will handle shortstop this offseason, probably with Seager...

[notin]

I just wanted to point out that I don't believe there are as many destinations as many think for Xander based on his defensive metrics.

 

Just because a team loses a shortstop doesn't guaranty that Xander replaces him.

 

Many teams will think it's wiser to spend say $150M/6 on another position/pitcher. That's what I want the Sox to do.

 

Sure many teams will want to spend that on a pitcher. But how many available pitchers will teams be willing to spend that kind of money? Even this offseason, there really is not a single pitcher reaching free agency that should get that kind of deal. I doubt Scherzer gets (or even wants) 6 years at 37 years old. Maybe Trevor Bauer can get a deal like that if any team wants to touch him. And the following season is not much different, with the best candidates for a deal like that being Clevinger and Joe Musgrove.

 

Just because teams want to or even needs to spend heavily on a pitcher does not make a worthy pitcher available. Signing Bogaerts and dealing a younger, cheaper shortstop for a good pitcher is certainly one solution teams will explore.

 

Also, Washington is another possible destination for Bogaerts. They really don't have a good shortstop solution and the far is pretty barren, unless Carter Kieboom rediscovers how to hit. And field...

[moonslav59]

I just wanted to point out that I don't believe there are as many destinations as many think for Xander based on his defensive metrics.

 

Just because a team loses a shortstop doesn't guaranty that Xander replaces him.

 

Many teams will think it's wiser to spend say $150M/6 on another position/pitcher. That's what I want the Sox to do.

 

I think many of the biggest spenders will fill their SS needs, this winter, so Bogey's options may be limited.

 

Teams that wanted to sign a big star SS but missed out may inquire about a trade for Bogey- hoping they can keep or extend him.

 

I do think many GMs are aware of his defense. Some may not think he's as bad as I do or other GMs do. Some may think his offense far outweighs his defensive short-coming, as I do, and still want him. He is also a start player who may generate fan interest and increased viewership and attendance.

 

The Sox have nobody in the system ready to play SS in 2023, unless you think Downs will improve.

 

We'll need a SS as much or more than many teams and can afford to spend a lot more than many teams, so he may not be going anywhere.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

A few #RedSox notes:

 

* 19 of Dalbec's last 27 hits have been for extra bases. His OPS was .651 on July 30. It's .786 now.

 

* Sox have allowed 18 unearned runs in the last 8 games.

 

* Sox are 9-9 since their Covid outbreak.

 

* Shaw has a .960OPS in 19 games with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

A few #RedSox notes:

 

* 19 of Dalbec's last 27 hits have been for extra bases. His OPS was .651 on July 30. It's .786 now.

 

* Sox have allowed 18 unearned runs in the last 8 games.

 

* Sox are 9-9 since their Covid outbreak.

 

* Shaw has a .960OPS in 19 games with the Sox.

 

Plus, Iggy is popping it.

[a700hitter]

This Red Sox team reminds me of a story about an old Dodger team with defensive problems. After a game, Tommy Lasorda assembled the team and posed a hypothetical game-end situation and asked Pedro Guerrreo what he would be thinking in that situation. Guerrero replied that he would be thinking”Don’t hit the ball to me”. Lasorda pressed on, “what else would you think?” He replied, “Don’t hit the ball to Saxy either” LOL! That s how I watch the Red Sox games. Edited September 16, 2021 by a700hitter

[sk7326]

A question. Why are the Sox currently tied with the Jays and Yankees--both teams predicted to do well this season--for the 2 wild card slots on September 15?

 

This thread is currently dominated by complaints about the defense, which in fact just might be the worst Sox defense ever. If defense is so all-fired important, why aren't the Sox mired down there with the Orioles?

 

Relatedly, if Bogey is such a disaster at SS, why did the Sox dump Iglesias (to get Jake Peavy) in 2013 (when the Sox won the WS), install Bogey at SS in 2014, and then have their best season ever in 2018 with Bogey at SS and Devers at 3b? Oh, and why does Bogey, the presumed disaster at SS, currently have the highest WAR on the Sox?

 

Defense is important - but we're also in an era where fewer balls are put in play than ever. But you can sort of see the defensive issues in the spread between the team's FIP and ERA which is the worst in the AL.

[moonslav59]

Let’s compare our offense to our defense:

 

On offense, we are first in BAbip at .307 but it’s very close.

 

We earned much of that by also being 6th in hard hit % at 33.3% (0.2 from 3rd) and 10th in LD% at 21.1% (0.1 from 8th best).

 

Now, the defense:

 

We are 9th in lowest Hard hit ball % (just o.8 from the best) and are 14th in lowest LD% at 20.9%, yet the BAbip against blows others away at .323!!!

 

[Nick]

One request for Cora....

 

NO MORE SCHEDULED DAYS OFF... we have plenty of open dates. Tomorrow, Monday, Thursday then Monday. They can rest all winter. He was going to give Xander a day off today. Xander talked him out of it.

 

I want him to be my boss.

[Bellhorn04]

Max does have a point, though. In spite of our horrible defense and the effect on the pitching, the team is outperforming expectations. So did Bloom do a great job or a questionable job? I think he did a good job, overall. It's been an enjoyable, if nutty, season so far.

[Bellhorn04]

One request for Cora....

 

NO MORE SCHEDULED DAYS OFF... we have plenty of open dates. Tomorrow, Monday, Thursday then Monday. They can rest all winter. He was going to give Xander a day off today.

 

You tell him Nick.

[Nick]

When the Red Sox received Santos from the Phillies earlier this summer as the player to be named later for C.J. Chatham, it was a surprisingly strong return. It’s not that Santos was an elite prospect or anything, but he was interesting, which is more than certainly I expected. Since the trade, he has only become more interesting. After this latest phenomenal start, he’s now got a 2.49 ERA over 43 1⁄3 innings with Portland, striking out 41 and walking only six. That control in particular has been incredible, and when he’s mixing in a solid strikeout rate you can see a guy who might make his way into the depth conversation later in the 2022 season.

 

Bloom is the ultimate head hunter extraordinaire.

[notin]

Let’s compare our offense to our defense:

 

On offense, we are first in BAbip at .307 but it’s very close.

 

We earned much of that by also being 6th in hard hit % at 33.3% (0.2 from 3rd) and 10th in LD% at 21.1% (0.1 from 8th best).

 

Now, the defense:

 

We are 9th in lowest Hard hit ball % (just o.8 from the best) and are 14th in lowest LD% at 20.9%, yet the BAbip against blows others away at .323!!!

 

 

That’s the problem.

 

Now some of that is attributable to playing in Fenway, where balls can scrape the Monster 35 feet up and no amount of defense was going to prevent a hit, but technically that’s still a ball in play.

 

But still. A BABIP if .324 tells us nearly 1 of every 3 batted balls that stays in the park falls for a hit. And our pitching staff isn’t letting up 1 out of 3 batted balls off the Monster…

[notin]

This Red Ox team reminds me of a story about an old Dodger team with defensive problems. After a game, Tommy Lasorda assembled the team and posed a hypothetical game-end situation and asked Pedro Guerrreo what he would be thinking in that situation. Guerrero replied that he would be thinking”Don’t hit the ball to me”. Lasorda pressed on, “what else would you think?” He replied, “Don’t hit the ball to Saxy either” LOL! That s how I watch the Red Sox games.

 

 

I also recall that story. For some context, that occurred when outfielder Guerrero was pressed into duty at third where he was not adapting well and also while Steve Sax was having a widely publicized bout with the Yips…

[moonslav59]

Max does have a point, though. In spite of our horrible defense and the effect on the pitching, the team is outperforming expectations. So did Bloom do a great job or a questionable job? I think he did a good job, overall. It's been an enjoyable, if nutty, season so far.

 

That’s how I took Max’s well presented point. The assumption has been that Bloom neglected the defense, but we all know he had limited resources and a team with many high need areas to address, including defense.

 

He tried to balance this with that and ended up with a competitive and exciting team to watch, that still has some weak areas... one being defense. The balancing has worked out, though.

[moonslav59]

That’s the problem.

 

Now some of that is attributable to playing in Fenway, where balls can scrape the Monster 35 feet up and no amount of defense was going to prevent a hit, but technically that’s still a ball in play.

 

But still. A BABIP if .324 tells us nearly 1 of every 3 batted balls that stays in the park falls for a hit. And our pitching staff isn’t letting up 1 out of 3 batted balls off the Monster…

 

The two comps are meaningful because at least the parks played in were the same. The pitching was different, as were the batters, but if LD and hard hit % mean anything, then one can assume the defense is the main reason for the wide BAbip variance.

 

[moonslav59]

When the Red Sox received Santos from the Phillies earlier this summer as the player to be named later for C.J. Chatham, it was a surprisingly strong return. It’s not that Santos was an elite prospect or anything, but he was interesting, which is more than certainly I expected. Since the trade, he has only become more interesting. After this latest phenomenal start, he’s now got a 2.49 ERA over 43 1⁄3 innings with Portland, striking out 41 and walking only six. That control in particular has been incredible, and when he’s mixing in a solid strikeout rate you can see a guy who might make his way into the depth conversation later in the 2022 season.

 

Bloom is the ultimate head hunter extraordinaire.

 

And now, suddenly, some of the players Bloom picked up at the deadline and afterwards are playing much better, now. Schwarber was injured, started strongly then slumped until the big hit, today, but what about Robles and Davis, of late?

 

Iggy?

 

Shaw?

 

[oldtimer]

Fortunately, we won the game today but two errors again. Rafie was involved in both. First was Renfro's throw to him on one bounce that he probably should have picked or at least stopped. Renfro got the error. The second on his wild throw to first on a play where he had enough time to make a normal throw. The beat goes on.

 

As far as Houck is concerned, he had really good stuff tonight but got unlucky with two soft contact hits. He doesn't show it, but he seems to ges ragged with men on base. A walk and wild pitch by him allowed the game to be tired. He settled right down in the next inning while not under pressure. The BP had another strong night.

 

Great to win this one as our hitting disappeared for 7 innings but came alive in the 10th. We kept pace.

[Nick]

Austin Hays hits his second homer with man on. Orioles 3, Yankees 2, bottom of 8th. Can they do it?

We need for the Yankees to drop one against the worst team in baseball.

 

A walk and a single to start Yankees 9th......going to bed. 5% chance Orioles hold and win. They really suck.

Edited September 16, 2021 by Nick