A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

Kiké career year

Xander average year

Raffy average year

JD average year to slightly below average year

Renfroe on par with 18 and 19 so average year

Verdugo average year (last year seems to be abberation)

Vaz below average year

Schwarber average year

Dalbec streaky, who knows what to expect one day to the next

 

Sale has been ok since returning

Eovaldi career year

ERod average year

Pivetta average year

Richards even worse than expected

Perez whatever

 

Not sure there is much to say about the pen.

 

So aside from Eovaldi and Kiké, who are these guys that are playing above their heads exactly? I think you just massively underrated this team and it's hard for you to say so.

 

Actually, Kike and Eovaldi have had equal or better seasons, so one could argue they are not having "career years," this year.

 

Kike: No, he's never havd over 462 PAs, before and he's going to approack 590, this year, but he had more homers in 2018 (21) and higeher OPS twice (2018 and 2015) than this year.

 

Eovaldi: His 2013 season was clearly as good, but it was long ago.

 

199.2 IP

3.39 ERA

 

His 2018 season was similar.

His shortened 2020 season saw a better ERA, ERA+ and similar WHIP.

 

Many of our prime or approaching prime players declined from 2019 or 2018.

 

.877 Devers (.916 in 2019)

.860 Bogey (.907 from 2018-2020 combined)

.777 Dugo (.827 from 2019-2020 combined)

.659 Vaz (.798 from 2019-2020 combined)

 

JD is not entering prime, but he dropped off, a lot, from his 2014 to 2019 numbers.

 

I'd also point out ERod's ERA+:

109 2017

116 2018

128 2019

n/a 2020

96 2021

(110 career) That is not "average."

 

We have some legitimate "what ifs" to say this team could have and should have been better. I won't argue this point, however, because we were remarkably healthy and saw big upticks from Pivetta, Perez over his first 12 starts, and better thaan expected showings from Renfroe, Plawecki, Iggy, Shaw, Whitlock, Taylor, Rios and Brasier at the last minute.

 

[mvp 78]

moon, you are combining 2013's ERA and 2014's innings pitched for Eovaldi.

 

Nathan Eovaldi

fWAR

2013 1.4 fWAR

2018 2.2 fWAR

2021 5.6 fWAR best of his career

 

Kike

2019 3.3 fWAR

2021 3.9 fWAR best of his career

 

ERod

2019 3.7 fWAR

2021 3.6 fWAR

[notin]

The Red Sox may wind up with 90 wins and say they "exceeded expectations" this year, but they also receded expectations the past week falling flat on their faces. A baseball season is a marathon -- and a mediocre first half and successful second half could still produce the same record -- but just as a big kick at the finish provides hope for the future, so does wiping out produce despair.

 

The pitching may have gagged against the Yankees, but those are the Bronx Bombers. But there's no excuse for Richards throwing wild pitches vs. Baltimore, or Pivetta grooving one to the Orioles' main power guy with first base open (Mountcastle: the same rookie who beat Sale).

 

The bottom line is that the offense, particularly Boston's star hitters, have just given up by literally giving up at bats. They're supposed to be fighting for a playoff berth and no one works the count to get a good pitch to hit (except Schwarber)?

 

The Sox scored 12 runs in the last game of their winning streak, and have 13 total runs in five losses since. Three runs or less per game isn't going to win anything... unless someone can find a time machine and go back to 1968.

 

No hitter seems to epitomize the offensive nosedive more than Xander Bogaerts, who is 2 for 23 since the winning streak with a .212 OPS and a single BB in that timeframe…

[moonslav59]

moon, you are combining 2013's ERA and 2014's innings pitched for Eovaldi.

 

Nathan Eovaldi

fWAR

2013 1.4 fWAR

2018 2.2 fWAR

2021 5.6 fWAR best of his career

 

Kike

2019 3.3 fWAR

2021 3.9 fWAR best of his career

 

ERod

2019 3.7 fWAR

2021 3.6 fWAR

 

My bad on Eovaldi.

 

Kike's fWAR is better due to 110 more PAs, not really playing any better, but that is valuable, and your point is well-taken.

 

Saying ERod's 2021 season is average based on fWAR only might be questionable. Look at bWAR:

 

1.8 2017

3.0 2018

6.1 2019 (3.5 average from 2017-2019)

1.6 2021

 

fWAR is heavily IP and K/BB influenced, which is fine but not everything.

 

fangraphs also provides these numbers:

 

ERA-

92 2017

86 2018

79 2019

109 2021

 

ERod's WHIP of 1.39 is a career high. To be fair, so is his BAbip (.365) which might show the Sox 2021 defense made this season seem below average.

 

My point was that 2021 is not a clear career best for these 3, but cases can be made they are slightly their best years (Eovaldi's is career best- clearly).

Edited October 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

No hitter seems to epitomize the offensive nosedive more than Xander Bogaerts, who is 2 for 23 since the winning streak with a .212 OPS and a single BB in that timeframe…

 

I think the wrist injury was part of the big drop off, but I think it goes beyond that. He got a chance to rest it over the COVID stint, but it did not help.

[mvp 78]

My bad on Eovaldi.

 

Kike's fWAR is better due to 110 more PAs, not really playing any better, but that is valuable, and your point is well-taken.

 

Saying ERod's 2021 season is average based on fWAR only might be questionable. Look at bWAR:

 

1.8 2017

3.0 2018

6.1 2019 (3.5 average from 2017-2019)

1.6 2021

 

fWAR is heavily IP and K/BB influenced, which is fine but not everything.

 

fangraphs also provides these numbers:

 

ERA-

92 2017

86 2018

79 2019

109 2021

 

ERod's WHIP of 1.39 is a career high. To be fair, so is his BAbip (.365) which might show the Sox 2021 defense made this season seem below average.

 

My point was that 2021 is not a clear career best for these 3, but cases can be made they are slightly their best years (Eovaldi's is career best- clearly).

 

I didn't say it was a career best for ERod. I said it was an average year.

[mvp 78]

I think the wrist injury was part of the big drop off, but I think it goes beyond that. He got a chance to rest it over the COVID stint, but it did not help.

 

It did help, just temporarily.

 

9/10 - 9/22 (coming back from IL to end of streak)

206 WRC+

1151 OPS

[moonslav59]

I didn't say it was a career best for ERod. I said it was an average year.

 

Yes, I misled with that point.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I misled with that point.

 

If your only point is that you quibble with Kiké not having a career year, well fine.

[moonslav59]

Here's a breakdown by 2 month increments:

 

OPS in APR/MAY- JUN/July- AUG/SEP (150+ PAs over season)

.946/.935/.760 Devers

.984/.796/.823 JDM

.938/.852/.777 Bogey

.756*/.776/.935 Renfroe (*despite a .938 May)

.646/.673/1.054 Dalbec

.692/.856/.784 Kike

.809/.692/.841 Verdugo

.657/.641/.683 Vazquez

.702/.881/ N/A Arroyo (9 PAs since July 19)

.695/.848/.719 Plawecki

N/A--NA-/.965 Schwarber

 

As you can see, Vaz was the most consistent hitter, but too bad he was consistently bad.

The big three had beg let downs in the final 2 months- JD in the middle two.

Many others did their share.

 

[moonslav59]

If your only point is that you quibble with Kiké not having a career year, well fine.

 

And ERod not being average, and Dugo not coming close to 2019-2020 combined numbers, and Bogey/Devers not being average when looking at recent 2-3 years not career, but other than them, yes, just Kike.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And ERod not being average, and Dugo not coming close to 2019-2020 combined numbers, and Bogey/Devers not being average when looking at recent 2-3 years not career, but other than them, yes, just Kike.

 

One moment last night sums up the desperation: when Cora pinch-hit Shaw for Plawecki. Usually -- or on most baseball teams at just about any level -- with a man on third and less than two outs, you want your best contact hitter up to put the ball in play and drive home the run.

 

Instead, Cora opted for the remote chance that a guy sitting on the bench who strikes out a lot would launch a big fly over the fence (it happened once in August); when any batter reaches base these days, the Red Sox need to try anything they can to contrive a rally. That's how rare an actual rally has been the past week.

[Bellhorn04]

One moment last night sums up the desperation: when Cora pinch-hit Shaw for Plawecki. Usually -- or on most baseball teams at just about any level -- with a man on third and less than two outs, you want your best contact hitter up to put the ball in play and drive home the run.

 

Instead, Cora opted for the remote chance that a guy sitting on the bench who strikes out a lot would launch a big fly over the fence (it happened once in August); when any batter reaches base these days, the Red Sox need to try anything they can to contrive a rally. That's how rare an actual rally has been the past week.

 

You're making an awful lot out of that pinch hit appearance, aren't you?

 

Only the game before Cora did the exact same thing and Shaw drew a walk.

 

It's just a simple percentage move.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You're making an awful lot out of that pinch hit appearance, aren't you?

 

Only the game before Cora did the exact same thing and Shaw drew a walk.

 

It's just a simple percentage move.

 

I got your percentages right here: Plawecki K-rate 15%, Shaw K-rate 34%. Runner on third, put the ball in play.

[moonslav59]

I got your percentages right here: Plawecki K-rate 15%, Shaw K-rate 34%. Runner on third, put the ball in play.

 

We needed base runners not sac flies or grounders that moved runners over.

 

I'm not saying PH'ing Shaw was right or wrong, or not finding a time for Dalbec to PH, either.

 

I'm not sure anything Cora might have done differently would have changed anything, last night.

 

This team is snake-bitten.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We needed base runners not sac flies or grounders that moved runners over.

 

I'm not saying PH'ing Shaw was right or wrong, or not finding a time for Dalbec to PH, either.

 

I'm not sure anything Cora might have done differently would have changed anything, last night.

 

This team is snake-bitten.

 

The point is that Cora knows there's no point in trying to "chip away" at a lead when nobody can be counted on anymore to sculpt with chisel and rockhammer. They're all swinging sledgehammers. Underwater. The batting order is too relentful.

[moonslav59]

The point is that Cora knows there's no point in trying to "chip away" at a lead when nobody can be counted on anymore to sculpt with chisel and rockhammer. They're all swinging sledgehammers. Underwater. The batting order is too relentful.

 

I think Shaw represented a better chance at getting on base than Plawecki. Not by much, but if he sat on his hands, he'd be bashed for that, too.

[mvp 78]

And ERod not being average, and Dugo not coming close to 2019-2020 combined numbers, and Bogey/Devers not being average when looking at recent 2-3 years not career, but other than them, yes, just Kike.

 

I said Verdugo's 2020 seemed to be an aberration. Bogey's numbers were average per fWAR. He had his career year in 2019. Devers had a career year in 2019 as well. Seems like this year is a more reasonable expectation.

 

And per fWAR, ERod's year was average.

[mvp 78]

I got your percentages right here: Plawecki K-rate 15%, Shaw K-rate 34%. Runner on third, put the ball in play.

 

Plawecki did well in his prior AB to reach for the first pitch way out of the zone for a weak ground ball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Plawecki did well in his prior AB to reach for the first pitch way out of the zone for a weak ground ball.

 

Plus, my son was yelling at him for not stopping all those bounced pitches that Richards spiked into the Earth. Versus the Baltimore Orioles.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Shaw represented a better chance at getting on base than Plawecki. Not by much, but if he sat on his hands, he'd be bashed for that, too.

 

Plawecki was getting a pinch-hit for for two reasons: a better bat and to replace him with Vazquez, who is usually better with the bullpen.

 

Regardless, it is absurd to think that Cora's decision on a pinch-hitter in game the Sox lost 6-2 is significant. Pivetta was OK when he needed to be really good, and the bullpen stunk once again. Even worse, the Sox lineup got 1 run in 6 innings off of Wells, whose ERA is 6.75 (and was over 7 before the game).

[mvp 78]

Plawecki was getting a pinch-hit for for two reasons: a better bat and to replace him with Vazquez, who is usually better with the bullpen.

 

Regardless, it is absurd to think that Cora's decision on a pinch-hitter in game the Sox lost 6-2 is significant. Pivetta was OK when he needed to be really good, and the bullpen stunk once again. Even worse, the Sox lineup got 1 run in 6 innings off of Wells, whose ERA is 6.75 (and was over 7 before the game).

 

Should have just IBB'd Mountcastle.

[moonslav59]

I said Verdugo's 2020 seemed to be an aberration. Bogey's numbers were average per fWAR. He had his career year in 2019. Devers had a career year in 2019 as well. Seems like this year is a more reasonable expectation.

 

And per fWAR, ERod's year was average.

 

I know what you said, and I pointed out that Verdugo did well in 2019 and 2020, possibly countering your claim of a 1 year aberration. (BTW, his 2019 season had more PAs than 2020, and 2019-2020 combined just about equal 2021's PAs- 598-595. .827 OPS to .777)

 

I tend to expect improvement as players like Devers and Bogey near or reach peak prime years.

 

My point about Devers being slightly better in 2019 but worse in '18 and '20 is weak, but to me, Bogey's 2021 was not in line with his 2028-2020 numbers, except for fWAR. Your point about fWar was noted and has merit.

 

I still think Bogey was below his recent average by enough to say so, but fWAR says otherwise.

Edited October 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Should have just IBB'd Mountcastle.

 

I thought the same thing.

[Maxbialystock]

About the Sox horrible, terrible, worst defense in the history of MLB. Consider these 2021 DWAR's vs. the 2018 DWAR's for the Sox:

 

CF +2.1 (Kike) vs. +.4 (JBJ)

C +1.2 (Vazquez) vs. +.2 (Vazquez)

2B +.7 (Arroyo) vs. -1.5 (Nunez)

SS +.3 (Bogey) vs. -1.0 (Bogey)

1B -1.4 (Dalbec) vs. -1.2 (Travis, Pearce, Moreland)

3B -1.1 (Devers) vs. -.9 (Devers)

RF -.4 (Renfroe) vs. + 1.8 (Betts)

LF -.1 (Verdugo) vs. -.6 (Benintendi)

 

If you add up the plusses and minuses for both years, the 2021 gets a +1.3 and 2018 gets a -2.8.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox - entire team:

 

Errors

2018 77

2021 108

 

UZR/150

2018 7.1

2021 2.0

[moonslav59]

Red Sox - entire team:

 

Errors

2018 77

2021 108

 

UZR/150

2018 7.1

2021 2.0

 

BAbip

2018: .295

2021 .325

[moonslav59]

About the Sox horrible, terrible, worst defense in the history of MLB. Consider these 2021 DWAR's vs. the 2018 DWAR's for the Sox:

 

CF +2.1 (Kike) vs. +.4 (JBJ)

C +1.2 (Vazquez) vs. +.2 (Vazquez)

2B +.7 (Arroyo) vs. -1.5 (Nunez)

SS +.3 (Bogey) vs. -1.0 (Bogey)

1B -1.4 (Dalbec) vs. -1.2 (Travis, Pearce, Moreland)

3B -1.1 (Devers) vs. -.9 (Devers)

RF -.4 (Renfroe) vs. + 1.8 (Betts)

LF -.1 (Verdugo) vs. -.6 (Benintendi)

 

If you add up the plusses and minuses for both years, the 2021 gets a +1.3 and 2018 gets a -2.8.

 

B-R had the team bWAR as 0.0 in 2018 and -1.0 in 2021.

 

fangraphs has...

 

+10 DRS in 2018

-5 in 2021

 

UZR 25.3 to 1.5

 

UZR/150 6.7 to 2.2

[dgalehouse]

We take you now to a home in Attleboro , where overweight , out of shape , disgruntled , livid , Sox fan Matthew Farge sits in his overstuffed easy chair , munching snacks and screaming at the TV. " These freakin bums are choking , Mabel . Choking I tell you ." Mabel Farge : " Take it east ,Matt. You are going to burst a blood vessel. ". Matt: " I can't help it , Mabel. It's that idiot Cora. He couldn't manage my old high school team. We knew how to play the game the right way. Not like these bums." Mabel: " I can't take it. I'm going out for a while." Matt: " Could you pick up some more Fritos? " Door slams.

[jacksonianmarch]

Richards was a gamble. JD resurgent from a down year at his age isn’t “sub norm”, it’s actually a plus.

 

You wanna know what the biggest win for the Sox is? Tell me, who was lost for the year, didn’t recover from an injury, didn’t have a horrible year who was counted on to be a stalwart? I’m waiting…..

 

The Sox had incredibly good health. Sale came back like he never missed a beat. ERod came back from heart inflammation and made it through the whole year (and his peripherals are dynamite). Schwarber was supposed to miss the month of august and he came back in 2 weeks. Nobody that was expected to be a main focus of the team had an off year. Even guys who started our s*****, like Dalbec, rebounded and have put together good seasons. The fact is, this Sox team, as constructed, should have had more tumult. Should have lost a pitcher to injury. Should have seen a position player miss time. Should have had a prime player have a down year. But they didnt.