A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[oldtimer]

SF won an a walk off error by newly acquired Trea Turner to take back the lead in the NLW and NL overall.

 

The Sox are now 8 behind TBR, so winning the division is all buy hopeless, unless we sweep them, later in the week. NYY won in extras vs the O's, last night to hold their 1.5 game lead over us. OAK's pen allowed 9 runs in their last IP to lose 11-10 and fall 3 behind us.

 

Here's how the AL looks:

 

85-50 TBR

79-55 HOU

78-56 NYY

78-57 CWS

78-59 BOS -1.5 WC1

 

74-61 OAK -3.0 WC2

73-62 SEA -4.0 WC2

71-62 TOR -5.0 WC2

 

(Remember, CLE still has a winning record at 67-65. -8.5 WC2.)

 

Our major issue involves the BP. We are relying on Whitlock, Ottavino and Richards. They can only do so much. Getting D-Hern back would help and Brasier is back but kind of an unknown as far as form goes. Taylor, Swamamura and Barnes may be out for another week.

[Hugh2]

Richards to me is just screaming, I could prolong my career and reinvent myself as a reliever. It’s only a 13.1 IP sample size this year but he’s been great I’m shorter stints.

[notin]

Richards to me is just screaming, I could prolong my career and reinvent myself as a reliever. It’s only a 13.1 IP sample size this year but he’s been great I’m shorter stints.

 

Agree 100%.

 

Of course, he’d have to be offered a closing role to make it worth his while, but I’m ok with that…

[moonslav59]

Since there is some question on what a proper route to the ball is, I wouldn't place much stock in a scout's unsupported claim that his are 'bad'.

 

It's not "unsupported." They now have advanced systems that track the angle and flight time of fly balls and the distance an OF'er has to go in a certain amount of time needed to get there. They compare the numbers between other OF'ers on similar plays.

 

With Duran's plus speed, one can easily conclude he's getting late breaks or taking wrong routes, if he is not getting to balls that most OF'er are getting to.

 

They probably also can track the routes OF'ers take.

 

How quickly an OF'er gets started is probably a much harder thing to measure.

[moonslav59]

Agree 100%.

 

Of course, he’d have to be offered a closing role to make it worth his while, but I’m ok with that…

 

Is he going to get a hefty SP'er offer from anyone, this winter?

 

The way even set-up men are getting paid, these days, that might be the best offer he gets, and will have to settle on whatever that is, and it will end up having to be "worth his while."

 

He may take a one year deal to try and prove he can do it as a closer, assuming he works his way up to that with some team needing a closer for 2022.

 

That begs the question: who is the 2022 closer for the Sox?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Is there? I would think in most cases that's a simple matter of physics.

 

I'm guessing that taking better routes to the ball is more coachable than getting a good jump on the ball.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Is he going to get a hefty SP'er offer from anyone, this winter?

 

The way even set-up men are getting paid, these days, that might be the best offer he gets, and will have to settle on whatever that is, and it will end up having to be "worth his while."

 

He may take a one year deal to try and prove he can do it as a closer, assuming he works his way up to that with some team needing a closer for 2022.

 

That begs the question: who is the 2022 closer for the Sox?

 

Houck or Barnes?

[Bellhorn04]

That begs the question: who is the 2022 closer for the Sox?

 

Could be a committee.

[Hugh2]

Is he going to get a hefty SP'er offer from anyone, this winter?

 

The way even set-up men are getting paid, these days, that might be the best offer he gets, and will have to settle on whatever that is, and it will end up having to be "worth his while."

 

He may take a one year deal to try and prove he can do it as a closer, assuming he works his way up to that with some team needing a closer for 2022.

 

That begs the question: who is the 2022 closer for the Sox?

 

Why not offer him a QO then? Thats a gross overpay but next year might be the year to do it. the Sox are probably planning on going over the cap next year and you don’t blow it up long term with one year. He can fit that role Whitlock provided this year when the other Garrett moves to the rotation. If or when Barnes/Ottavino struggle or get injured he might end up SAVING a season for us as an elite late reliever.

 

And this may be one of my dumbest posts yet. In my attempt to justify the gross overpay for one year deal I completely forgot Richards contract grants the Sox a club option for $10 million next year. This is why you get under the cap and reset, you can spend big next year and having shorter deals only makes it easier.

[moonslav59]

Houck or Barnes?

 

I'd really like to see Houck get a chance, and it's too bad we can't afford to try him there, now.

 

As of now, I see our open slots for 2022 like this:

 

#1 or solid #2 SP'er

 

#3/4 SP'er (to replace ​or re-sign ERod)

 

Closer or solid set-up man

 

I think we end up getting 2 of these 3 needs and use Whitlock and/or Houck to fill the other- most likely the closer and/or 3 slot SP'er roles.

 

If they fill 2 of the roles, we'd need depth signings, which I hate, as compared to improving from the top.

 

Sale

_____

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Barnes

_____

_____

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Valdez/Rios/Brasier/Davis/Bazardo

 

I like this better:

 

Sale

______ (Solid #2)

______ (Solid #3)

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

 

______ (Closer like R Iglesias)

Houck

Barnes

Taylor

DHern

Seabold

Sawamura

Valdez/Rios/Brasier/Davis/Bazardo

[oldtimer]

It's not "unsupported." They now have advanced systems that track the angle and flight time of fly balls and the distance an OF'er has to go in a certain amount of time needed to get there. They compare the numbers between other OF'ers on similar plays.

 

With Duran's plus speed, one can easily conclude he's getting late breaks or taking wrong routes, if he is not getting to balls that most OF'er are getting to.

 

They probably also can track the routes OF'ers take.

 

How quickly an OF'er gets started is probably a much harder thing to measure.

 

I would think that if the data says he made 46 out of 47 plays, it wouldn't matter if he took the wrong route. He got the catch, which is what counts.

[oldtimer]

I'd really like to see Houck get a chance, and it's too bad we can't afford to try him there, now.

 

As of now, I see our open slots for 2022 like this:

 

#1 or solid #2 SP'er

 

#3/4 SP'er (to replace ​or re-sign ERod)

 

Closer or solid set-up man

 

I think we end up getting 2 of these 3 needs and use Whitlock and/or Houck to fill the other- most likely the closer and/or 3 slot SP'er roles.

 

If they fill 2 of the roles, we'd need depth signings, which I hate, as compared to improving from the top.

 

Sale

_____

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Barnes

_____

_____

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Valdez/Rios/Brasier/Davis/Bazardo

 

I like this better:

 

Sale

______ (Solid #2)

______ (Solid #3)

Eovaldi

Whitlock

Pivetta

 

______ (Closer like R Iglesias)

Houck

Barnes

Taylor

DHern

Seabold

Sawamura

Valdez/Rios/Brasier/Davis/Bazardo

I agree that we need pitching.

 

I see it as

Eovaldi

Sale

____ (Solid Starter)

Pivetta

Whitlock/Houck Whichever works best

 

Closer by committee:

____High leverage reliever

Barnes

Richards

Houck/Whitlock (whoever doesn't start)

Taylor

Swamamura

D-Hern

Seabold/Valdez/Brasier

 

Get rid of Davis and Robles while keeping Bazardo and Rios in reserve.

[notin]

I agree that we need pitching.

 

I see it as

Eovaldi

Sale

____ (Solid Starter)

Pivetta

Whitlock/Houck Whichever works best

 

Closer by committee:

____High leverage reliever

Barnes

Richards

Houck/Whitlock (whoever doesn't start)

Taylor

Swamamura

D-Hern

Seabold/Valdez/Brasier

 

Get rid of Davis and Robles while keeping Bazardo and Rios in reserve.

 

The low budget A’s have three first year arb pitchers in their rotation for this off-season (Manaea, Bassett, Montas) to go along with their position players in Chapman, Olson, Laureano, Murphy and Pinder. I could see them making a few trades to save money.

 

Bring back Montas?

[moonslav59]

I would think that if the data says he made 46 out of 47 plays, it wouldn't matter if he took the wrong route. He got the catch, which is what counts.

 

So, it doesn't matter than another OF'er mad 50 out of zone plays to 12 by Duran?

 

I'm not saying that happened, but these ratings are based on how a guy compares to others on the same type plays.

[moonslav59]

So, the chasers for the WC2 slot have bunched up more closely.

 

OAK is 4 back, SEA 4.5 back and TOR 5 back from the Sox, but the big news is, we are now juts 0.5 behind the Yanks. True, we are down 2 in the loss column, but with so few days left to this long season, the Yanks having to play 3 more games than us may be hurtful.

 

The Yanks play 19 days in a row, then have 2 days off in the last 10 of the season, including one before the series at Boston 9/24 to 9/26. They get a day off after our series then go to TOR for 3 and end with TBR at home for 3.

 

The bad thing about ending with Tampa is that the Rays might be resting everyone good.

 

[moonslav59]

Tomorrow is a big game. It's never easy to sweep, even at home, and CLE has a winning record, still.

 

The next 9 after tomorrow will be very testing:

(Day off)

3 vs TBR

3 @ CWS

3 @ SEA

 

Then, things look a bit better...

(Day off)

3 vs BAL

(Day off)

2 vs NYM

(Day off)

3 vs NYY

(Day off)

 

We finish with...

 

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

Look at the 4 series stretch between @SEA 9/15 and @BAL 9/28, We have a day off between all 4 series!

 

4 Days of in 12 days before the last 6 game road trip.

 

[moonslav59]

Sox WAR Leaders (Before today)

 

fWAR

4.6 Eovaldi

4.5 Bogey

4.4 Devers

3.7 Kike

3.0 ERod

2.4 JD

2.2 Verdugo

1.8 Renfroe

1.7 Pivetta

1.6 Whitlock + 0.1 on offense

1.4 Houck

1.4 Ottavino

1.3 Barnes

1.2 Arroyo

1.0 Richards

0.9 Schwarber

0.8 Taylor

0.7 Vaz

0.5 Perez

0.4 Plawecki

0.3 Dalbec

0.2 Sale

0.1 Wong, Shaw, Davis

 

bWAR

4.4 Kike

4.2 Bogey

4.1 Eovaldi

3.6 Devers

2.9 Whitlock + 0.1 offense

2.5 JD

2.4 Verdugo

1.8 Renfroe

1.5 Ottavino

1.4 ERod

1.4 Arroyo

1.1 Barnes, Houck, Taylor

1.0 Richards +0.1 offense

0.9 Sale & Vaz

0.8 Schwarber, Sawamura, DHern

0.5 Perez, Rios

0.3 Workman

0.2 Wong

0.1 Plawecki, Bazardo, Brennan, Valdez

 

 

[Nick]

“I think a lot of pieces came together today. Slider was pretty good, especially whenever I needed it,” he said. “The splitter was definitely the go-to offspeed pitch today. I’m incredibly excited to have that pitch as effective as it is now. It’s been a long year of learning and developing that pitch and pushing myself to make that as big a weapon as it is now.”

 

Houck sure doesn't sound like he's working towards being a closer. He's close to being a very good starter and that's what we need first. And that's where the money is. Every pitcher wants to be a starter at first.

 

Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck, our young guns.

 

When you throw in Seabold, Bello and Matta into the equation, you have some starters on the horizon.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

“I think a lot of pieces came together today. Slider was pretty good, especially whenever I needed it,” he said. “The splitter was definitely the go-to offspeed pitch today. I’m incredibly excited to have that pitch as effective as it is now. It’s been a long year of learning and developing that pitch and pushing myself to make that as big a weapon as it is now.”

 

Houck sure doesn't sound like he's working towards being a closer. He's close to being a very good starter and that's what we need first. And that's where the money is. Every pitcher wants to be a starter at first.

 

Whitlock, Pivetta and Houck, our young guns.

 

Yes, especially Whitlock and Houck LOL

[Nick]

Beauty of adding Schwarber is he'll hit anywhere in the lineup, he just wants to hit.

 

Once Kike, Xander and Arroyo comes back, our offense will be solid. It's too bad JD hasn't expanded his marketability by working on playing 1B in addition to outfield. He certainly has the length to be a 1B.

[Bellhorn04]

I always liked Schwarber. Now I love him. Nice get, Bloom.

[Nick]

We save $45M off of expiring contracts of Pedey, Beni, E Rod, Richards, Marwin, Ottavino less $5M pay increase for Barnes for a net of $40M.

 

Arbitration increases will come from Devers, Hunter, Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor and Pivetta. Moon probably has an estimated number for the increase.

 

Position players are fixed other than adding Schwarber. I'm not going to worry about JD until he decides to opt out.

 

What's interesting is that JD has to decide before the new CBA come out whether to opt out if I'm not mistaken.

 

Any chance Schwarber would accept the mutual player/club option at $11.5M?

[Bellhorn04]

What's interesting is that JD has to decide before the new CBA come out whether to opt out if I'm not mistaken.

 

Any chance Schwarber would accept the mutual player/club option at $11.5M?

 

Right now it looks very doubtful that JD would want to opt out, especially with the CBA uncertainty.

 

As for Schwarber, the words 'mutual option' make my head hurt. I just hope he's on the 2022 team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is no way JD is opting out, because no one is giving him a raise. If fans cringe when he flails at low and outside breaking stuff off the plate every at bat, every single game, then you know pro scouts and front offices are seeing the same thing. And the Red Sox are going to have to pay market value to keep Schwarber out of pinstripes. It will definitely be worth it, because Schwarber's definitely worth it, but when it comes to Bloom making a Godfather offer, I'll believe it when I see it.

[Nick]

MLB Reportedly Proposes $180MM First Luxury Tax Threshold, $100MM Salary Floor To MLBPA

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/09/mlb-proposal-to-players-association-included-changes-to-service-time-structure.html

 

This is a must read.....talking about 2022 without knowing where the negotiation is headed seems fruitless. Current contract expires on December 1.

 

First question is will there be a 'freeze' in transactions (ie opt outs, free agency, etc) until the new CBA is finalized? Historically, there's not been a freeze (with exception of COVID period when both sides agreed to 'freeze')

 

Ultimate question is will the new season start on time?

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

There is no way JD is opting out, because no one is giving him a raise. If fans cringe when he flails at low and outside breaking stuff off the plate every at bat, every single game, then you know pro scouts and front offices are seeing the same thing. And the Red Sox are going to have to pay market value to keep Schwarber out of pinstripes. It will definitely be worth it, because Schwarber's definitely worth it, but when it comes to Bloom making a Godfather offer, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Given the year Schwarber has had in both Washington and Boston, I'd be very surprised to see him exercise his portion of he mutual option.

 

As for JD, I think it is a tough call. It all depends if he wants as much money as possible for 2022, in which case he stays, or he wants to try for a longer deal. At his age, every season reduces the changes of a multiyear contract. If he wants to gamble that the NL will adopt the DH, that would make this year his best chance.

 

Of course, if he does opi out, he will receive a QO (assuming they are still a thing) since Boston would be stupid not to offer him one (if he is turning down a $19.4mill season, why not have him turn down another ~$19mill one year offer on his way out the door?), which makes him less attractive to some teams. But then he might get one after 2022 as well, especially if he has a better season.

 

I don't think it's a simple as "will he get a raise on 2022?". Other factors do include the QO, the DH and his age if he wants a multiyear deal. Maybe he does not want to take the money for one season and risk having an off-season at a year older like Yoenis Cespedes or Edwin Encarnacion where no one came calling and he had to retire?

[Nick]

If we can get into the playoffs, this season will have been a successful season.

 

We have learned great deal about our players.

 

Kike was a player that Cora and Bloom envisioned when he was given a two year, $14M deal.

 

Arroyo is one of those grinders that Sox always seems to have in their lineup.

 

Dalbec despite his late push is still unknown commodity BUT it's not time to trade the guy. Not even close.

 

Chavis turned out to be like several players we've had in the past. We all had our fingers crossed but the former first rounder just didn't make the grade. Traded and good riddance.

 

Verdugo may never reach stardom but he's a keeper.

 

Renfroe with his rocket arm and surge in power (I suppose he's always hit hard and long) is ideal right fielder for the Sox.

 

Xander even without the 'star power' plays and produces like one.

 

Some guys are born to hit. Devers is that guy. He more than anyone else on the roster is a keeper. Quote from Rounders. "Pay the Man. He beat me."

 

Schwarber enhances any lineup. Natural born hitter without relying on analytics. See the ball, hit the ball kind of guy.

 

Duran, work in progress. Not time to trade him either.

 

Whitlock has mental makeup along with elite arm to be an ace someday.

 

Houck, listen to what Chris Sale has to say about him. "He has better slider than me". He's one 'splitter' away from being a stud starter.

 

Pivetta, not sure of his ceiling but you can do lot worse as him as our fifth starter. He came cheap, another one of Bloom's nice pickup.

 

Taylor and Darwinzon, probably shouldn't get excited about relievers because they always seem to start all over again each year when it comes to their effectiveness. But good lefties are hard to come by and they are under team control for four more years.

 

Wong, good solid backup catcher for the future.

 

Eovaldi, answered critics about his durability this year. On the cusp of being a solid #2/#3. May warrant extension at some point.

 

E Rod, frustrating as ever. Waiting for him to get to another level. But there's no doubt we have won more times than lose by wide margin when he starts. I'd say we bring him back and focus solely on our bullpen.

 

I hate hearing people say his production went down due to overuse. Well that's most overused excuse for Barnes. What changed?

No longer seems 'team friendly' contract.

 

Meanwhile our farm ranking went up to 9th. We got the best player in the draft according to many experts. We also signed couple of other potential high ceiling guys.

 

Life is good in Boston.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

Is he going to get a hefty SP'er offer from anyone, this winter?

 

The way even set-up men are getting paid, these days, that might be the best offer he gets, and will have to settle on whatever that is, and it will end up having to be "worth his while."

 

He may take a one year deal to try and prove he can do it as a closer, assuming he works his way up to that with some team needing a closer for 2022.

 

That begs the question: who is the 2022 closer for the Sox?

 

Closer, shmoser. I'd pay Richards $8.5M to continue what he is doing now, long relief.

 

As I keep reminding everyone (and getting ignored), the early relievers can ruin or help win a game as much as the closer. And Richards right now is freaking invaluable if he can keep coming in about every 3d day and going 2-3 innings.

 

Valdez should have pitched 3 last night.

[Maxbialystock]

Closer, shmoser. I'd pay Richards $8.5M to continue what he is doing now, long relief.

 

As I keep reminding everyone (and getting ignored), the early relievers can ruin or help win a game as much as the closer. And Richards right now is freaking invaluable if he can keep coming in about every 3d day and going 2-3 innings.

 

Valdez should have pitched 3 last night.

 

To me the perfect pitching staff would be 5 starters, 3 long relievers like Whitlock, Richards, and Valdez, and 4 good short relievers, and 1 garbage man.

[Hugh2]

Closer, shmoser. I'd pay Richards $8.5M to continue what he is doing now, long relief.

 

As I keep reminding everyone (and getting ignored), the early relievers can ruin or help win a game as much as the closer. And Richards right now is freaking invaluable if he can keep coming in about every 3d day and going 2-3 innings.

 

Valdez should have pitched 3 last night.

 

The Sox hold a $10 million dollar option on Richards. I think they exercise it, and like you said keep him in this role which I think replaces Whitlock if they still plan on moving him to the rotation.