A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Fan_since_Boggs]

There is this belief that Houck has two pitches, a fastball and slider. But I don't know, he throws a 4-seamer, a 2-seamer (a sinker) and a slider. Accordingly, doesn't that equal three pitches or does that equal two pitches because of two fastball variations (4-seamer and 2-seamer) to go along with the slider? He throws a splitter too, but not very often, like 5% of the time.

[moonslav59]

There is this belief that Houck has two pitches, a fastball and slider. But I don't know, he throws a 4-seamer, a 2-seamer (a sinker) and a slider. Accordingly, doesn't that equal three pitches or does that equal two pitches because of two fastball variations (4-seamer and 2-seamer) to go along with the slider? He throws a splitter too, but not very often, like 5% of the time.

 

What puzzles me about Houck, and I'm not saying I'm not high on him, is how he never really impressed through the minors, and his ML sample size is rather small.

[moonslav59]

People make things too complicated. Watch Houck pitch. You will see that he has excellent stuff and should be in the rotation.

 

I'm super psyched he's back with the big club, but you know, Pivetta has "excellent stuff," too.

 

I'm not saying that to comp him to Pivetta but to just throw some caution to the discussion.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What puzzles me about Houck, and I'm not saying I'm not high on him, is how he never really impressed through the minors, and his ML sample size is rather small.

 

He was never great in the minors but (1) he never had an opportunity to excel in AAA in 2020. (2) He always averaged a K per inning throughout his minor league career and thus demonstrated the ability to miss bats and thus did profile as a guy with a high ceiling. (3) During one of his minor league seasons, he was instructed to use the 4-seamer almost exclusively and that was (and continues to be) his weakest pitch. The Red Sox wanted him to improve the effectiveness of that pitch so that it would complement his already impressive 2-seamer and slider. (4) To some extent, the Red Sox may have forced Houck to work on and develop his changeup, a pitch that never really worked out for him and I believe he has now abandoned it.

[moonslav59]

He was never great in the minors but (1) he never had an opportunity to excel in AAA in 2020. (2) He always averaged a K per inning throughout his minor league career and thus demonstrated the ability to miss bats and thus did profile as a guy with a high ceiling. (3) During one of his minor league seasons, he was instructed to use the 4-seamer almost exclusively and that was (and continues to be) his weakest pitch. The Red Sox wanted him to improve the effectiveness of that pitch so that it would complement his already impressive 2-seamer and slider. (4) To some extent, the Red Sox may have forced Houck to work on and develop his changeup, a pitch that never really worked out for him and I believe he has now abandoned it.

 

Great points.

 

He still needs a larger sample size to lock up a rotation slot for 2022.

 

(Note: I am confident he will.)

[Larry Cook]

Great points.

 

He still needs a larger sample size to lock up a rotation slot for 2022.

 

(Note: I am confident he will.)

 

At what point do the training wheels come off houck?

[Noles_1335]

So those complaining about Tanner only having 2 pitches… correct me if I’m wrong… how many pitches did two of the best closers to ever toe the rubber only have one pitch they perfected… Hoffman and his change-up and Mariano with the cutter… only takes one great pitch my friends… let the kid eat!!!

[oldtimer]

What a difference Kike makes in the lineup. Might have won the first game had he been available.

[iortiz]

Finally!

[moonslav59]

At what point do the training wheels come off houck?

 

April 2022 or the WS, this October.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If E-Rod could get on a roll, the Red Sox could have a really good postseason rotation.

 

E-Rod (pitches games 1 and 5)

Eovaldi (pitches games 2 and 6)

Sale (pitches games 3 and 7)

Houck (pitches game 4, available from the bullpen in game 7)

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS Leaders

- only 1 over .900

- Kike firmly ranked #4

 

.927 Devers

.910 Schwarber (with WSH- .828 career)

.898 Bogey

.889 JD

 

.806 Kike

.792 Arroyo

.778 Renfroe

.750 Verdugo

 

.721 Plawecki

.650 Dalbec

.650 Vazquez

 

.573 Marwin

.568 Duran

.554 Santana

.527 Cordero

[moonslav59]

Here is an interesting look at weak hitting in 2021:

 

Out of 429 batters with 80+ PAs, this year...

 

183 have a .700 or lower OPS (43%)

120 have a .650 or lower OPS (28%)

65 have a .600 or lower OPS (15%)

31 are below .550 (7%)

 

Here are the numbers for 2019:

436 batters with 120+ PAs

 

132 below .700 (30%)

73 below .650 (17%)

30 below .600 (7%)

17 below .550 (4%)

[Hugh2]

So those complaining about Tanner only having 2 pitches… correct me if I’m wrong… how many pitches did two of the best closers to ever toe the rubber only have one pitch they perfected… Hoffman and his change-up and Mariano with the cutter… only takes one great pitch my friends… let the kid eat!!!

 

With me it's not complaining, it's stating a fact. Houck is a two-pitch pitcher and looks destined for the bullpen.

 

To be clear, I think he could be REALLY GOOD there, as in, one of the best closers in baseball.

 

 

Is it possible he adds back in another pitch and changes his trajectory? of course it's, but it's unlikely.

[Hugh2]

There is this belief that Houck has two pitches, a fastball and slider. But I don't know, he throws a 4-seamer, a 2-seamer (a sinker) and a slider. Accordingly, doesn't that equal three pitches or does that equal two pitches because of two fastball variations (4-seamer and 2-seamer) to go along with the slider? He throws a splitter too, but not very often, like 5% of the time.

 

The 4 seamer is flat and not a good pitch. Unlike the two seamer.

 

If you look at what happens the first time Houk goes through an order vs. the second time his ERA drops from .87 to 4.05 and his batting average against goes from .143-.333

 

This is a small sample size from 2021 at the MLB level, but this matches up EXACTLY with what scouts have been saying about him all year and what had been happening to him down in the minors. He looks great for 3-4 innings and then things fall apart when hitters get a second look at him.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I have never turned my opinion of a player as quickly as I have with Kike Hernandez. I remember facing him in the World Series and I had zero concern, he never seemed to hurt us. I didn't understand the signing and surely didn't understand Cora's insistence on hitting him leadoff in the first third of the season.

 

But watching him play all year you really can appreciate what he does. Far better CF than I expected, the best the position has been played since JBJ, and he can play other spots. Leading off the game with a home run is a huge psychological boost and he's done it a number of times. Don't mean to overstate it but that HR last night may have jump started the season again.

[mvp 78]

The 4 seamer is flat and not a good pitch. Unlike the two seamer.

 

If you look at what happens the first time Houk goes through an order vs. the second time his ERA drops from .87 to 4.05 and his batting average against goes from .143-.333

 

This is a small sample size from 2021 at the MLB level, but this matches up EXACTLY with what scouts have been saying about him all year and what had been happening to him down in the minors. He looks great for 3-4 innings and then things fall apart when hitters get a second look at him.

 

Right now, he's not a starter. Maybe he can develop into one?

[Hugh2]

Right now, he's not a starter. Maybe he can develop into one?

 

It's perfectly plausible that he adds a pitch and his trajectory changes as a MLB starter. Right now, I wouldn't project him as a starter.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora says Ryan Brasier threw a live batting practice session with Worcester, and pitching coach Paul Abbott was pleased that there was ‘no hesitation’ or flinching in reaction to swings. Cora thinks Brasier will throw one more live BP and then a rehab assignment might be possible

[moonslav59]

The 4 seamer is flat and not a good pitch. Unlike the two seamer.

 

If you look at what happens the first time Houk goes through an order vs. the second time his ERA drops from .87 to 4.05 and his batting average against goes from .143-.333

 

This is a small sample size from 2021 at the MLB level, but this matches up EXACTLY with what scouts have been saying about him all year and what had been happening to him down in the minors. He looks great for 3-4 innings and then things fall apart when hitters get a second look at him.

 

Then what explains the wildly low ERA the third time through?

 

Add the second and third together and it’s not all that bad.

 

Also, look at IR allowed to score and OPS against numbers.

[moonslav59]

I have never turned my opinion of a player as quickly as I have with Kike Hernandez. I remember facing him in the World Series and I had zero concern, he never seemed to hurt us. I didn't understand the signing and surely didn't understand Cora's insistence on hitting him leadoff in the first third of the season.

 

But watching him play all year you really can appreciate what he does. Far better CF than I expected, the best the position has been played since JBJ, and he can play other spots. Leading off the game with a home run is a huge psychological boost and he's done it a number of times. Don't mean to overstate it but that HR last night may have jump started the season again.

 

I think some looked at only his OBP and overlooked his power and defense.

[notin]

The 4 seamer is flat and not a good pitch. Unlike the two seamer.

 

 

Four seamers are just about velocity. A two seamer is almost always thrown in the right range of 91-94 mph. I think - and I could easily be wrong - that if it gets thrown too much harder, the ball isn’t left with enough time for sufficient break, making it easier to hit…

[mvp 78]

Four seamers are just about velocity. A two seamer is almost always thrown in the right range of 91-94 mph. I think - and I could easily be wrong - that if it gets thrown too much harder, the ball isn’t left with enough time for sufficient break, making it easier to hit…

 

Unless the pitcher would be able to throw an insane amount of rpm's.

[notin]

Unless the pitcher would be able to throw an insane amount of rpm's.

 

Cue the new theme song

 

“Spider Tack. Spider Tack. Gives the ball the spin rate you lack”

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Eddie is on pace for 3.4 WAR, career best K%, career best BB%, 3.61 xERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, career best SwStr%, great zone contact. Teams are going to look at his ERA, BABIP, and LOB% and say yeah we don't care about that, I think, and he's going to get paid like a great year.

[mvp 78]

Cue the new theme song

 

“Spider Tack. Spider Tack. Gives the ball the spin rate you lack”

 

I long for the halcyon days of Bullfrog.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have never turned my opinion of a player as quickly as I have with Kike Hernandez. I remember facing him in the World Series and I had zero concern, he never seemed to hurt us. I didn't understand the signing and surely didn't understand Cora's insistence on hitting him leadoff in the first third of the season.

 

But watching him play all year you really can appreciate what he does. Far better CF than I expected, the best the position has been played since JBJ, and he can play other spots. Leading off the game with a home run is a huge psychological boost and he's done it a number of times. Don't mean to overstate it but that HR last night may have jump started the season again.

 

I was slightly shocked in the 2018 World Series when Hernandez hit a 2-run bomb in the 9th off Kimbrel. I remember thinking a guy named KeyKay just came off the bench and took our closer deep... of course, it was Game Four in LA, the last inning Kimbrel ever pitched for the Red Sox.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Interesting idea:

I’m at the point where I’m content sending Dalbec down, calling up wong to be the backup catcher and letting Plawecki platoon at 1B.

 

Two sensible moves: (1) release loser Gonzalez and promote Munoz. (2) Demote Dalbec and promote Wong. Plawecki is Cordero's platoon partner until Schwarber is ready.

[oldtimer]

Interesting idea:

 

 

Two sensible moves: (1) release loser Gonzalez and promote Munoz. (2) Demote Dalbec and promote Wong. Plawecki is Cordero's platoon partner until Schwarber is ready.

 

Send Perez down and promote Seabold. Send Richard down or our and bring up Sale. Bring back Houck.

[notin]

Send Perez down and promote Seabold. Send Richard down or our and bring up Sale. Bring back Houck.

 

Neither a Perez nor Richard can be demoted. All the Sox can do is DFA them and expose them to waivers…