Since they lost last night, I need to tell you what I REALLY feel about the 2021 Sox!

[Kimmi]

They're not even a top 10 pen right now. You expect they will get better?

 

Sure they are. Unless you want to go by ERA alone.

 

Advanced metrics puts them #3 or #4.

[moonslav59]

Sure they are. Unless you want to go by ERA alone.

 

Advanced metrics puts them #3 or #4.

 

Our pen has carried us through many a close game.

[mvp 78]

He just needs to be in AAA working out his issues. In the long run, he may end up earning another chance, but as of now, he has no business being on our 26 man roster.

 

If Santana isn't ready, call up Wilson or even Rosario as a defensive replacement- or better yet- both..

 

Scrap the 14th pitcher idea, at least until Kike or Arroyo return.

 

They’d bring up Matheny before Rosario.

[moonslav59]

They’d bring up Matheny before Rosario.

 

Agreed. I just really like Rosario and his defensive outlook.

[Maxbialystock]

They're pretty good actually. This season has been downright enjoyable. So far, they haven't been the .500 team that some of the naysayers were projecting.

 

This remains one of the best posts all season.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. I just really like Rosario and his defensive outlook.

 

Rosario has a higher ceiling so I wouldn't want to rush him.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox go .500 the rest of the way, they'll end up with 84 wins which is about where we thought they'd be.

[notin]

If the Sox go .500 the rest of the way, they'll end up with 84 wins which is about where we thought they'd be.

 

And that was one of the more optimistic projections. I was in the 80-85 range as well...

[moonslav59]

Rosario has a higher ceiling so I wouldn't want to rush him.

 

Agreed, but he might already be our best defensive OF'er close enough to ML readiness.

[mvp 78]

And that was one of the more optimistic projections. I was in the 80-85 range as well...

 

I'm still at 86. If they end up with 88 and miss the WC, it'll be a successful season IMO.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but he might already be our best defensive OF'er close enough to ML readiness.

 

I think he's still about 1.5 - 2 years away though. He's 21 with 6 games above high A.

[moonslav59]

I think he's still about 1.5 - 2 years away though. He's 21 with 6 games above high A.

 

Agreed.

 

Just being the best defender is not reason enough to jump 2 levels to the bigs.

[notin]

I think he's still about 1.5 - 2 years away though. He's 21 with 6 games above high A.

 

Defense plays at any level, but many fans don’t appreciate defense if it is paired with a .170 batting average.

 

And sometimes they are right in it not being worth it...

[mvp 78]

Defense plays at any level, but many fans don’t appreciate defense if it is paired with a .170 batting average.

 

And sometimes they are right in it not being worth it...

 

Right now he's a slap hitter with no power and only "above average" speed. That would definitely not play in MLB.

[notin]

Right now he's a slap hitter with no power and only "above average" speed. That would definitely not play in MLB.

 

True. No one wants Billy Hamilton. So Billy Hamilton, But Slower just doesn’t get ‘em all worked up...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still at 86. If they end up with 88 and miss the WC, it'll be a successful season IMO.

 

Although if we miss by 1 game, that would hurt and would lead to second-guessing about certain moves.

[notin]

Although if we miss by 1 game, that would hurt and would lead to second-guessing about certain moves.

 

85% of which will involve Franchy. Or in some cases, Frenchy...

[mvp 78]

Although if we miss by 1 game, that would hurt and would lead to second-guessing about certain moves.

 

It hurt in 2011 because expectations were high. It would hurt less this year. It's the difference between the Sox losing to the Yanks in 99 and the Sox losing to the Yanks in 03.

[Nick]

I read comment attributed to E Rod how much better he felt pitching last night compared to previous start.

 

The bottom line is he gave up 4 earned runs in six innings, despite nine strike outs and his velocity being up.

 

I'm talking about the future of this ball club.

 

Every half inning we go from offense to defense. On defensive inning, the pitcher controls the game. He knows how much his offense is scoring, he has to match opposition's pitcher. I don't care what E Rod said but he simply failed to keep up with other starting pitcher.

 

Is he our ace? Is he good enough to defeat the Yankees going up against G Cole twice in a five game series?

 

Even with Sale returning somewhat to his former self, long term, we need a better #1.

 

Assignement for Moon who is really good at these things. Select #1 for each team in AL. Where would E Rod rank? How do they fare in close games? Getting 8 run support to me is a meaningless game.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I read comment attributed to E Rod how much better he felt pitching last night compared to previous start.

 

The bottom line is he gave up 4 earned runs in six innings, despite nine strike outs and his velocity being up.

 

I'm talking about the future of this ball club.

 

Every half inning we go from offense to defense. On defensive inning, the pitcher controls the game. He knows how much his offense is scoring, he has to match opposition's pitcher. I don't care what E Rod said but he simply failed to keep up with other starting pitcher.

 

Is he our ace? Is he good enough to defeat the Yankees going up against G Cole twice in a five game series?

 

Even with Sale returning somewhat to his former self, long term, we need a better #1.

 

Assignment for Moon who is really good at these things. Select #1 for each team in AL. Where would E Rod rank? How do they fare in close games? Getting 8 run support to me is a meaningless game.

 

For one thing, ERod might not actually face Cole in a head-to-head playoff series, but of course, I'd take Cole. It would not be a slam dunk. ERod finds ways to win. Period.

 

As for other team aces, I don't see the purpose of looking at a 6 week sample size to determine who he's better than. Taking a 2020-2021 sample size is rather small, too, and ERod did not pitch in 2020. Going back to 2018 and including all seasons in-between, here's how pitchers are ranked in various categories. Let's say the top 30 are "aces."

 

Without looking, I'd view ERod as one of the game's best #2 starters and likely better than half the team's #1, but here are some numbers.

 

2018-2021 (150 pitchers with 170+ IP- that's 5 per team)

 

Wins (more of a team stat, but still...)

47-14 Cole

38-16 Bieber

38-15 Verlander

38-20 Greinke

37-12 ERod

37-20 Nola

37-27 Gonzalez

36-20 Scherzer

36-15 Kershaw

35-13 Morton

(Some of these guys are now hurt or extremely aged.)

 

ERA-

49 deGrom

57 Ryu

60 Verlander, Cole

65 Clevinger, Soroka, Gallen, Scherzer

68 Sale

69 Kershaw

70 Bauer, Bieber

71 Snell

73 Buehler

74 Kluber, Means. Plesac, Glasnow

75 Nola, Woodruff

32. ERod 83 (slots as a top #2)

 

xFIP-

59 Sale

63 deGrom, Cole

67 Bieber

43. ERod 90 (slots as a mid #2)

 

WHIP

0.85 Verlander

0.92 deGrom

0.93 Cole

0.97 Sale

86. ERod 1.30 (slots as a low #3)

 

WAR:

14. Sale 9.8

43. ERod 6.3 (not bad missing the 2020 season)

 

 

It's one thing to say, I'd rather have this starter than that one, but age, contract status, past history and future outlook.

 

If you go by just past performance and weigh the last 2-3 years more heavily, my guess is ERod can be slotted anywhere from #20 to #40 without much argument from me.

 

Erod is a winner, and while using wins is not something I usually do, since run support, park dimensions, luck and strength of opponents play into wins, ERod is unmatched since 2018.

 

19-4 in 2018 (17 games with 0-4 run support)

26-8 in 2019 (8 games with 0-4 run support)

5-2 in 2021 (2 games with 0-4 run support)

 

50-14 last 4 years (27 games with 0-4 runs support)

 

14 Slam dunk better than ERod:

deGrom

Cole

Scherzer

Bieber

Bauer

Nola

Morton

Sale

Kershaw

Buehler

Snell

Gray

Strasburg

Woodruff

 

I can probably name 14 more that are better. I'd put him around #30-35.

Edited May 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I read comment attributed to E Rod how much better he felt pitching last night compared to previous start.

 

The bottom line is he gave up 4 earned runs in six innings, despite nine strike outs and his velocity being up.

 

I'm talking about the future of this ball club.

 

Every half inning we go from offense to defense. On defensive inning, the pitcher controls the game. He knows how much his offense is scoring, he has to match opposition's pitcher. I don't care what E Rod said but he simply failed to keep up with other starting pitcher.

 

Is he our ace? Is he good enough to defeat the Yankees going up against G Cole twice in a five game series?

 

Even with Sale returning somewhat to his former self, long term, we need a better #1.

 

Assignement for Moon who is really good at these things. Select #1 for each team in AL. Where would E Rod rank? How do they fare in close games? Getting 8 run support to me is a meaningless game.

 

Is ERod really the de facto team ace in the absence of Sale?

 

Eovaldi has been the best using FIP. Pivetta leads the rotation in W-L record and ERA. Richards has been the most effective after a slow start.

 

So yes, the “ace” situation in Boston is the worst in the East, with Cole, Means, Glasnow and Ryu all outperforming every Boston starter. But can the other rotations stack up depth-wise? A win in game 4 of a series counts as much as a win in game 1...

[illinoisredsox]

I read comment attributed to E Rod how much better he felt pitching last night compared to previous start.

 

The bottom line is he gave up 4 earned runs in six innings, despite nine strike outs and his velocity being up.

 

I'm talking about the future of this ball club.

 

Every half inning we go from offense to defense. On defensive inning, the pitcher controls the game. He knows how much his offense is scoring, he has to match opposition's pitcher. I don't care what E Rod said but he simply failed to keep up with other starting pitcher.

 

Is he our ace? Is he good enough to defeat the Yankees going up against G Cole twice in a five game series?

 

Even with Sale returning somewhat to his former self, long term, we need a better #1.

 

Assignement for Moon who is really good at these things. Select #1 for each team in AL. Where would E Rod rank? How do they fare in close games? Getting 8 run support to me is a meaningless game.

 

ERod is a number 2 type starter. He’s almost always going to give up 3 runs and give you 6 innings. Most of the time he’s going to keep you in a game and give the team a decent chance at winning, but he’s not the type of guy who can win a game by himself. Over the course of his career, he really hasn’t shown himself to have #1 stuff, either in the way of overpowering pitches (like we think of most aces) or in terms of pinpoint control (ala Greg Maddox). I haven’t seen the bulldog mentality that goes along with a #1 either. He’s a good pitcher (maybe our best one) but he’s not a true #1; he has the role by default.

 

Now coming off of the heart issue last year, I’m willing to cut him some slack this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod is not an ace. That really isnt a slight, it is a fact. He is an injury prone player who's production fits in the good category. He is a low 2 high 3, IMO in today's game. There are no 1's on the sox currently. Maybe Sale gets back to that with his elbow reconstructed. Maybe his shoulder is still a wreck and he doesn't. But the sox have a dire need at the head of the rotation and nobody has grabbed it.

[moonslav59]

ERod is not an ace. That really isnt a slight, it is a fact. He is an injury prone player who's production fits in the good category. He is a low 2 high 3, IMO in today's game. There are no 1's on the sox currently. Maybe Sale gets back to that with his elbow reconstructed. Maybe his shoulder is still a wreck and he doesn't. But the sox have a dire need at the head of the rotation and nobody has grabbed it.

 

You don't need to be an ace to be a stopper, and ERod is a stopper, if there ever was one. We've won 50 of his last 64 starts.

 

He's a solid #2, but would be an "ace" on half the teams due to the fact that some teams have 2-3 "aces" and there are only 30 in the top 30 top pitchers in MLB.

[moonslav59]

ERod is not an ace. That really isnt a slight, it is a fact. He is an injury prone player who's production fits in the good category. He is a low 2 high 3, IMO in today's game. There are no 1's on the sox currently. Maybe Sale gets back to that with his elbow reconstructed. Maybe his shoulder is still a wreck and he doesn't. But the sox have a dire need at the head of the rotation and nobody has grabbed it.

 

Injury prone?

 

1 Knee injury a ways back

 

COVID last year (not an injury)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is ERod really the de facto team ace in the absence of Sale?

 

Eovaldi has been the best using FIP. Pivetta leads the rotation in W-L record and ERA. Richards has been the most effective after a slow start.

 

So yes, the “ace” situation in Boston is the worst in the East, with Cole, Means, Glasnow and Ryu all outperforming every Boston starter. But can the other rotations stack up depth-wise? A win in game 4 of a series counts as much as a win in game 1...

 

And in postseasons where most modern starters are significantly less effective on less-than-normal days rest, having three #2 types can be lethal vs. a club with a #1 and a cast of fill-ins... after allowing its #s 2, 3 and 4 to walk away in the winter. Better hope that ace never loses (like he did once in the '19 World Series decided by one game, or like he did to Boston in the ALCS in '18).

[dgalehouse]

ERod is a good pitcher. He is not a great one. He has been the beneficiary of some really good run support. " Ace " is a subjective term , but ERod would generally be rated a bit below that status.

[jacksonianmarch]

Injury prone?

 

1 Knee injury a ways back

 

COVID last year (not an injury)

 

ERod becomes a FA after the year. He has made 25 or more starts exactly once in his career. He is more Eovaldi than iron man.

[Nick]

For one thing, ERod might not actually face Cole in a head-to-head playoff series, but of course, I'd take Cole. It would not be a slam dunk. ERod finds ways to win. Period.

 

As for other team aces, I don't see the purpose of looking at a 6 week sample size to determine who he's better than. Taking a 2020-2021 sample size is rather small, too, and ERod did not pitch in 2020. Going back to 2018 and including all seasons in-between, here's how pitchers are ranked in various categories. Let's say the top 30 are "aces."

 

Without looking, I'd view ERod as one of the game's best #2 starters and likely better than half the team's #1, but here are some numbers.

 

2018-2021 (150 pitchers with 170+ IP- that's 5 per team)

 

Wins (more of a team stat, but still...)

47-14 Cole

38-16 Bieber

38-15 Verlander

38-20 Greinke

37-12 ERod

37-20 Nola

37-27 Gonzalez

36-20 Scherzer

36-15 Kershaw

35-13 Morton

(Some of these guys are now hurt or extremely aged.)

 

ERA-

49 deGrom

57 Ryu

60 Verlander, Cole

65 Clevinger, Soroka, Gallen, Scherzer

68 Sale

69 Kershaw

70 Bauer, Bieber

71 Snell

73 Buehler

74 Kluber, Means. Plesac, Glasnow

75 Nola, Woodruff

32. ERod 83 (slots as a top #2)

 

xFIP-

59 Sale

63 deGrom, Cole

67 Bieber

43. ERod 90 (slots as a mid #2)

 

WHIP

0.85 Verlander

0.92 deGrom

0.93 Cole

0.97 Sale

86. ERod 1.30 (slots as a low #3)

 

WAR:

14. Sale 9.8

43. ERod 6.3 (not bad missing the 2020 season)

 

 

It's one thing to say, I'd rather have this starter than that one, but age, contract status, past history and future outlook.

 

If you go by just past performance and weigh the last 2-3 years more heavily, my guess is ERod can be slotted anywhere from #20 to #40 without much argument from me.

 

Erod is a winner, and while using wins is not something I usually do, since run support, park dimensions, luck and strength of opponents play into wins, ERod is unmatched since 2018.

 

19-4 in 2018 (17 games with 0-4 run support)

26-8 in 2019 (8 games with 0-4 run support)

5-2 in 2021 (2 games with 0-4 run support)

 

50-14 last 4 years (27 games with 0-4 runs support)

 

14 Slam dunk better than ERod:

deGrom

Cole

Scherzer

Bieber

Bauer

Nola

Morton

Sale

Kershaw

Buehler

Snell

Gray

Strasburg

Woodruff

 

I can probably name 14 more that are better. I'd put him around #30-35.

 

Outstanding!!

[Nick]

good summary on Matt Barnes, 2021 version....I posted this on another thread but everyone seems to be here.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-bar...-simple-trick/

 

Quick Discussion on throwing 1st pitch strike and swinging at 1st pitch strike.

 

"When batters connect, they do more damage, as evidenced by the wOBAcon column (league average hovers around .370 in most years). That offsets the whiffs and fouls, such that the overall run value is slightly in the hitter’s favor. In other words, if you throw a pitch in the strike zone and the batter swings, you’re losing out on the deal.

 

That’s only half the equation, though. When batters don’t swing, well, it’s a celebration. The loss in expected production after a first-pitch strike is massive. It works out to roughly four runs per 100 plate appearances, 10 times better for the pitcher than a first pitch swing is bad. Unless batters are swinging over 90% of the time at strikes, the zone is the place to live on first pitches.

 

Unsurprisingly, batters aren’t swinging over 90% of the time. They’re swinging at 0-0 pitches in the zone 44% of the time so far this year, the highest mark since pitch tracking started in 2008. That development is a step in the right direction on the offensive side, because letting a first pitch strike fly by is disastrous, but hitters would need to swing a lot more before flooding the zone stopped making sense."

 

In essence the article is saying that unless hitters swing at almost every first pitch strike, advantage goes to pitcher throwing the first pitch strike. Good read.

 

Any thoughts from posters with pitching knowledge? How far do you go from offensive perspective? Do you chance a pitcher getting through 3 innings on 9 pitches by swinging at every first pitch strike?

Edited May 13, 2021 by Nick