A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Hugh2]

Maybe they lost some faith in Benintendi? He’d been a below average since 2018, and while still young, really just had the one good season.

 

But hindsight moves like that where multiple transactions need to get rearranged make for weak arguments...

 

I think they totally lost faith in Benintendi. Not sure how they felt about him long term too, as undersized players often do not age well.

 

I think some are underestimating the return Bloom got for him, not sure what these people expected. Bloom has a pretty darn good track record over making moves like this.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see us try Arroyo at lead off. I know he's not a great leadoff-type hitter, but he's been getting on base more than anyone else not named Verdugo, Bogey, JD or Devers.

 

I know, I know, you ask "but what about his .283 OBP career before this year?"

 

I have no answer for that, and I'm usually the one saying don't make big decisions based on 90to 100 PAs or even 200-350, but when you look at all the other options, it's slim pickings.

 

This team used to highly value OBP. I think that's one reason Dalbec was given a long look at 1B, this year. He had a very nice OBP in the minors, but so far, it has not transferred.

 

Santana has very good speed, but it's not worth much on home run trots or with a .220 OBP, like he has in this tiny sample size of a season for him. His career mark is .298, so I think it's fair to say, he's far from being an ideal lead-off hitter.

 

Kike was given a chance and maybe can win it back, but his .283 OBP, this year was not cutting it. While his .310 career mark is better than Santana's and others, it was .296 from 2019-2020- which is worse than Santana's last 2 years.

 

Renfroe's power is needed in the 6 slot, and his .306 OBP, this season is not all that great either.

 

Other players' career OBP and 2021's:

.333 Arauz (in AAA and only 90 PA sample size) .400, this year in 10 PAs

.315 Marwin (in a horrific slump, all year) .291, this year

.312 Plawecki (doesn't play everyday) .310, this year

.307 Vaz (.293, this year)

.293 Arroyo (.326, this year)

.289 Dalbec (.248 this year)

.285 Franchy (AAA)

 

Going just by the OBP numbers and weighting 2021 numbers equally with career numbers, it looks like we have 2 choices:

 

A. Arroyo

 

B. Vaz/Plawecki

 

I vote A.

.302 Chavis

 

[moonslav59]

I think they totally lost faith in Benintendi. Not sure how they felt about him long term too, as undersized players often do not age well.

 

I think some are underestimating the return Bloom got for him, not sure what these people expected. Bloom has a pretty darn good track record over making moves like this.

 

I think his going against the team's recommended workout regime was the final straw.

 

I think his defense was not what they expected.

 

He made his share of base-running blunder but was not really a bad runner.

 

His offense was sporadic and streaky.

 

He looks like he'd be better than Cordero, but if we kept him, we might not have signed Renfroe and even if we did, he'd be taking away Kike or Arroyo's PAs. Let's stop pretending that would be a huge difference maker. Yes, Beni>>>Cordero. No, Beni >>> Kike/Arroyo. Beni >Kike/Arroyo offensive, yes, but not >>>.

 

He's only been marginally better, this year and had just one more arb year left.

 

.782 Beni (.788 career)

.731 Arroyo (.664 career, but .723 after his rookie 2017 season)

.669 Kike (.732 career)

[Bellhorn04]

I think they totally lost faith in Benintendi. Not sure how they felt about him long term too, as undersized players often do not age well.

 

I think some are underestimating the return Bloom got for him, not sure what these people expected. Bloom has a pretty darn good track record over making moves like this.

 

Agreed. I think the cost and control factors were big too. Beni is cheap this year, but if he has a good season, he'll likely get a healthy raise in his final arb year, and then he's a free agent.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. I think the cost and control factors were big too. Beni is cheap this year, but if he has a good season, he'll likely get a healthy raise in his final arb year, and then he's a free agent.

 

I don't think Sox management felt like 2021 was going to be a competitive season, so in a sense, they were just trading 1 year of Beni- a year he might be making $8-10M.

 

Yes, cost and control years were both big factors, in my opinion, too.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Sox management felt like 2021 was going to be a competitive season, so in a sense, they were just trading 1 year of Beni- a year he might be making $8-10M.

 

Or, they didn't think losing Beni was going to be a big factor in whether we were competitive or not.

 

Having seen Bloom in action now, I think he figured there was a good chance we WOULD BE competitive.

[moonslav59]

Or, they didn't think losing Beni was going to be a big factor in whether we were competitive or not.

 

Having seen Bloom in action now, I think he figured there was a good chance we WOULD BE competitive.

 

Maybe competitive for a WC slot.

 

Does anyone think having Beni and no Sawamura or Renfroe would have us in first place, right now?

 

Sure, we can hindsight it all and say keep Beni and sign Holt not Kike, like 700 suggested, and have Beni, Sawamura & Renfroe, but even that would not have made a big difference.

 

You are right.

 

[notin]

Maybe competitive for a WC slot.

 

Does anyone think having Beni and no Sawamura or Renfroe would have us in first place, right now?

 

Sure, we can hindsight it all and say keep Beni and sign Holt not Kike, like 700 suggested, and have Beni, Sawamura & Renfroe, but even that would not have made a big difference.

 

You are right.

 

 

It’s very possible Bloom knows what he’s doing.

 

After three games, everyone wrote off the season and Bloom. If anyone had said at that point “Don’t sweat it. By early June this team will have the second best record in the AL and be 4.5 games up on the Yankees,” safe bet all reactions to that statement would not have been in agreement with it...

[Nick]

Kike, Santana, Marwin are all just place holders. Maybe they had bigger plans for Kike. Beni would have been in that group.

 

I think we keep JD and Xavier...along with Devers and Verdugo.

 

We need long term solutions at C, 1B (it may still be Dalbec with Casas on deck), 2B (maybe Arroyo but I think we can do better), and two outfield spots, (Duran is on deck and maybe Renfroe takes over RF).

 

This is what's so exciting about this year's team. Competing for a playoff spot and at the same time building a sustainable, competitive playoff team.

 

Historically we've had teams that can score runs. Sox has not been able to develop a successful pitching staff internally.

 

Bloom has that covered.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[a700hitter]

Agreed. I think the cost and control factors were big too. Beni is cheap this year, but if he has a good season, he'll likely get a healthy raise in his final arb year, and then he's a free agent.

And around the time that Beni retires for good maybe the 16 yr old or 17 yr old we got in return will be in the major leagues... or maybe not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think his going against the team's recommended workout regime was the final straw.

 

I think his defense was not what they expected.

 

He made his share of base-running blunder but was not really a bad runner.

 

His offense was sporadic and streaky.

 

He looks like he'd be better than Cordero, but if we kept him, we might not have signed Renfroe and even if we did, he'd be taking away Kike or Arroyo's PAs. Let's stop pretending that would be a huge difference maker. Yes, Beni>>>Cordero. No, Beni >>> Kike/Arroyo. Beni >Kike/Arroyo offensive, yes, but not >>>.

 

He's only been marginally better, this year and had just one more arb year left.

 

.782 Beni (.788 career)

.731 Arroyo (.664 career, but .723 after his rookie 2017 season)

.669 Kike (.732 career)

 

I just think Bloom was rebuilding and jumped on a chance to add five bodies for a guy who hit .100 during a lost season.

 

Beni may have been a disappointment to fans who expected more from a top-ranked MLB prospect, but he was a pretty solid player in his three full seasons in Boston. Here's where he stood among regular AL leftfielders from 2017-19: first in runs scored, double, triples, walks and stolen bases; second in hits, RBIs and OBP... fourth in OPS at .794 (Brantley led with .842).

[Nick]

And around the time that Beni retires for good maybe the 16 yr old or 17 yr old we got in return will be in the major leagues... or maybe not.

 

Do you ever think Sox just did not want him? I don't miss him one bit. Non-athletic, slow footed left fielder with no power. You can say it million ways, Sox didn't want him.

 

And hats off to JBJ's agent for swinging the deal with Milwaukee.

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I just think Bloom was rebuilding and jumped on a chance to add five bodies for a guy who hit .100 during a lost season.

 

Beni may have been a disappointment to fans who expected more from a top-ranked MLB prospect, but he was a pretty solid player in his three full seasons in Boston. Here's where he stood among regular AL leftfielders from 2017-19: first in runs scored, double, triples, walks and stolen bases; second in hits, RBIs and OBP... fourth in OPS at .794 (Brantley led with .842).

 

Baseball is business. It is what have you done for me lately.

 

Tampa due to lack of financial muscle knows when to get rid of a player. Sell high.

 

They would be trading away Devers this winter if they had him. What boatload of good players can we get for him? (not advocating, just asking)

[moonslav59]

Kike, Santana, Marwin are all just place holders. Maybe they had bigger plans for Kike. Beni would have been in that group.

 

I think we keep JD and Xavier...along with Devers and Verdugo.

 

We need long term solutions at C, 1B (it may still be Dalbec with Casas on deck), 2B (maybe Arroyo but I think we can do better), and two outfield spots, (Duran is on deck and maybe Renfroe takes over RF).

 

This is what's so exciting about this year's team. Competing for a playoff spot and at the same time building a sustainable, competitive playoff team.

 

Historically we've had teams that can score runs. Sox has not been able to develop a successful pitching staff internally.

 

Bloom has that covered.

 

Maybe Ronaldo Hernandez or Wong can do well enough to give us a plus at catcher after Vaz's 2022 season ends his control years with the Sox.

 

Our biggest need areas all have a top prospect or recently graduated prospect in the system, already. That was no accident.

 

CF: 3 Duran, 4 Jimenez, 20 Rosario

 

2B: 2 Downs, 21 Arauz, 10 Yorke (Arroyo)

 

1B: Dalbec, 1 Casas

 

C: 13 R Hernandez, 17 Wong

[Nick]

Maybe Ronaldo Hernandez or Wong can do well enough to give us a plus at catcher after Vaz's 2022 season ends his control years with the Sox.

 

Our biggest need areas all have a top prospect or recently graduated prospect in the system, already. That was no accident.

 

CF: 3 Duran, 4 Jimenez, 20 Rosario

 

2B: 2 Downs, 21 Arauz, 10 Yorke (Arroyo)

 

1B: Dalbec, 1 Casas

 

C: 13 R Hernandez, 17 Wong

 

I pretty much follow your line of thinking....not sure if we'll get what we want in terms of singing an ACE. (I know we both advocate that)

Edited June 6, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Adding an Ace for 2022 season.

 

We let E Rod walk. Frees up $8.3M.

We get relief from Pedy/Beni cash payouts...$15M

 

I'm sure we can find few more millions to make it work. (some of Ottavino $$)

 

Nathan, Perez, Richards and Price money comes off the books, totaling close to $50M after 2022.

 

For 2023, rotation could be Ace, Sale, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock. As someone said, that's lot of hypotheticals Nick......Yep....We can always pick up a Perez type for depth/insurance.

[a700hitter]

Do you ever think Sox just did not want him? I don't miss him one bit. Non-athletic, slow footed left fielder with no power. You can say it million ways, Sox didn't want him.

 

And hats off to JBJ's agent for swinging the deal with Milwaukee.

slow-footed? Non-athletic? I haven’t heard those terms to describe him.

 

Edit: it is not about missing him. It is about whether Bloom got a fair return for him. If the team doesn’t like a guy, they still look to maximize his value.

[dgalehouse]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

[Hugh2]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

 

A bird in hand is worth two in the Bush.

 

One side can evaluate a trade soon, the other side usually has to wait a few years.

 

In blooms case a bird in hand is worth 5 in the bush. At first glance it looks like a good deal and a great infusion of talent into our system, but like you said. Time will tell.

[a700hitter]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

When 16 and 17 yr olds are involved it can take minimum 6 years to make that determination. By that time Beni could be retired and everyone else will have forgotten this deal.

[Bellhorn04]

When 16 and 17 yr olds are involved it can take minimum 6 years to make that determination. By that time Beni could be retired and everyone else will have forgotten this deal.

 

I think they are actually 18 and 19.

[Bellhorn04]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out.

 

Well, it helps when the team is 35-23 this year...

[Nick]

slow-footed? Non-athletic? I haven’t heard those terms to describe him.

 

Edit: it is not about missing him. It is about whether Bloom got a fair return for him. If the team doesn’t like a guy, they still look to maximize his value.

 

I think we need to wait a little bit to analyze the trade. It maybe that these young guys will fail much sooner than later. Lets see what Beni does in 21-22 seasons and compare to what we received. Sometime club gains by subtraction and I think this was the case.

[moonslav59]

I pretty much follow your line of thinking....not sure if we'll get what we want in terms of singing an ACE. (I know we both advocate that)

 

If it were up to me, I'd sign an ace 2 times every 3 years.

[a700hitter]

I think they are actually 18 and 19.

I stand corrected, but the 18 yr old hasn’t played professionally since age 16 and the 19 year old hasn’t played professionally since age 17, so they have almost no professional development. 5 years minimum before we see these guys contributing regularly in the MLB... if ever.

[Nick]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

 

I disagree.

 

Getting Pivetta was good deal.

 

I'm leaning towards signing of Kike for $14M, 2 year deal not so good for Bloom. So far. I'm talking about the money vs production here.

[moonslav59]

slow-footed? Non-athletic? I haven’t heard those terms to describe him.

 

Edit: it is not about missing him. It is about whether Bloom got a fair return for him. If the team doesn’t like a guy, they still look to maximize his value.

 

That would mean they would have had to have foreseen his stock-declining 2020 season ahead of time.

 

Holding onto him for the 2021 season was not likely going to increase his value, as well.

 

I'm not sure getting 5 players and over $3M in budget space can be called a bad deal so early on, but you have already written off all 5 players and cherry-picked, in hindsight, signing Holt and not Kike, but that call is not decided yet, either.

[a700hitter]

Time will tell whether or not it was a good deal. Too soon right now. But there are those who will defend Bloom no matter how it turns out. We seem to be getting to where we root for or against the G.M.s more than we root for the players.

I never root for or against a GM. I criticize all of them without exception. They are on the same “overpaid knucklehead list” as managers.

[a700hitter]

That would mean they would have had to have foreseen his stock-declining 2020 season ahead of time.

 

Holding onto him for the 2021 season was not likely going to increase his value, as well.

 

I'm not sure getting 5 players and over $3M in budget space can be called a bad deal so early on, but you have already written off all 5 players and cherry-picked, in hindsight, signing Holt and not Kike, but that call is not decided yet, either.

”Cherry picked in hindsight”? No, not at all. I haven’t liked the Kike deal from day 1.

[dgalehouse]

No doubt there have been exceptions , but generally players named later don't ever amount to much.