A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Great lists, thanks. I would take A, but would defy the digits by flipping a few guys (mainly from my own personal preferences). For example, I'd take Maddux over Johnson, solely because I hate walks so much; I know RJ settled down after leading the league three straight years, but Greg had the best BB per 9 for 9 seasons. And just for big games that I had a rooting interest -- for or against -- I'd take Pedro over Rog, Schilling over Mussina, and Pettite over Brown.

 

If you are counting longevity, your list seems better, but if you go by who was best during their best 4-5 years, Pedro would be high on my list.

[Nick]

I agree.

 

I almost took the Rocket off my list, but he was really great, as a pitcher.

 

As person, he's a real dick, and not just with the cheating and lying in baseball.

 

(He lives in my hometown: Sugar Land)

 

BTW, I'm not a fan of FIP, but it does give some valuable information. It's just not the whole story- as no stat is.

 

To me, there are a lot of really good pitchers who pitch to contact and don't get a lot of K's, but the ball that are hit are not hit hard and mostly go for outs. They don't look good with FIP.

 

Moon, no one responded to the article on Matt Barnes. It had some interesting 'suggestions'.

 

Basically if you are a hitter and you take the first ball strike, you're dead in water. On the other hand, if you swing at 90% of first pitch strike, hitters definitely have the advantage. Apparently mlb hitters are swinging at first pitch strike more than ever (thinking 48%), but that's not enough to swing the advantage to the hitters.

 

Knowing that a pitcher is a first strike thrower, would you tell the team at go ahead and swing at the first pitch?

[illinoisredsox]

Moon, no one responded to the article on Matt Barnes. It had some interesting 'suggestions'.

 

Basically if you are a hitter and you take the first ball strike, you're dead in water. On the other hand, if you swing at 90% of first pitch strike, hitters definitely have the advantage. Apparently mlb hitters are swinging at first pitch strike more than ever (thinking 48%), but that's not enough to swing the advantage to the hitters.

 

Knowing that a pitcher is a first strike thrower, would you tell the team at go ahead and swing at the first pitch?

 

That depends on what type of first strike thrower said pitcher is.

 

If he tends to throw the same pitch in the same spot most of the time, sure, have at it.

 

If he throws a lot of first strikes but the location and type of pitch vary, then you have to be disciplined enough to look for a particular pitch in a particular spot. If it's not there, let it go.

[Bellhorn04]

Great lists, thanks. I would take A, but would defy the digits by flipping a few guys (mainly from my own personal preferences). For example, I'd take Maddux over Johnson, solely because I hate walks so much; I know RJ settled down after leading the league three straight years, but Greg had the best BB per 9 for 9 seasons. And just for big games that I had a rooting interest -- for or against -- I'd take Pedro over Rog, Schilling over Mussina, and Pettite over Brown.

 

Loathsome though he may be, Schilling is the best postseason pitcher in history.

[Maxbialystock]

That’s fair. Great pitchers definitely have greater value for us fans watching.

[moonslav59]

Moon, no one responded to the article on Matt Barnes. It had some interesting 'suggestions'.

 

Basically if you are a hitter and you take the first ball strike, you're dead in water. On the other hand, if you swing at 90% of first pitch strike, hitters definitely have the advantage. Apparently mlb hitters are swinging at first pitch strike more than ever (thinking 48%), but that's not enough to swing the advantage to the hitters.

 

Knowing that a pitcher is a first strike thrower, would you tell the team at go ahead and swing at the first pitch?

 

There used to be a time where driving up the pitch count on starters was a benefit- not so much anymore.

 

I'm not sure how easy it is to tell, let alone get your hitters to radically change their approach. So many really want to just see the first pitch, the pitchers motions, or whatever. I'm not sure I'd mess with any hitter that has a good thing going,

 

In general, your point makes sense. I'm just not sure how practical putting it in action can be.

[oldtimer]

The Blue Jays have pitching depth issues and when they put weak pitching against our lineup, good things happen. Lets take the finale.

[moonslav59]

The Blue Jays have pitching depth issues and when they put weak pitching against our lineup, good things happen. Lets take the finale.

 

Lack of pitching should be their downfall.

 

They may pick someone up at the deadline. They seem to be more willing to spend than most teams.

[Maxbialystock]

The Blue Jays have pitching depth issues and when they put weak pitching against our lineup, good things happen. Lets take the finale.

 

Assuming WAR is a useful measurement of pitching prowess, I notice that the Rays top three starters have WAR's of 1.7, 1, and .7. The Sox top three are 1.1, .7, and .6. However, the Sox 4 and 5 starters have WAR's of .6 and .3, and the Jays 4 and 5 are sort of undetermined.

 

Thanks to recent dingers given up, Barnes WAR has dropped to .8 and Whitlock's to .6. Then Valdez at .3, Sawamura at .2, and Ottavino at -.2.

 

The Jays bullpen WAR's are: Chatwood .9; Castro .6; Payamps (a name to conjure with) .5; Bergen .5; Phelps .4.

 

Season to date, Toronto's ERA is 3.82 and the Sox 3.89.

 

Season to date, the Sox run differential is +41 and the Jays is +40. That one run edge is because the Sox have scored 224 runs to the Jays 203.

 

In other words, the Sox have better hitting, the Jays better pitching, and overall these two teams are about even steven. Sox are 1.5 game ahead.

[oldtimer]

Assuming WAR is a useful measurement of pitching prowess, I notice that the Rays top three starters have WAR's of 1.7, 1, and .7. The Sox top three are 1.1, .7, and .6. However, the Sox 4 and 5 starters have WAR's of .6 and .3, and the Jays 4 and 5 are sort of undetermined.

 

Thanks to recent dingers given up, Barnes WAR has dropped to .8 and Whitlock's to .6. Then Valdez at .3, Sawamura at .2, and Ottavino at -.2.

 

The Jays bullpen WAR's are: Chatwood .9; Castro .6; Payamps (a name to conjure with) .5; Bergen .5; Phelps .4.

 

Season to date, Toronto's ERA is 3.82 and the Sox 3.89.

 

Season to date, the Sox run differential is +41 and the Jays is +40. That one run edge is because the Sox have scored 224 runs to the Jays 203.

 

In other words, the Sox have better hitting, the Jays better pitching, and overall these two teams are about even steven. Sox are 1.5 game ahead.

 

Ross Stripling's 2021 WAR is -0.4

[notin]

Assuming WAR is a useful measurement of pitching prowess, I notice that the Rays top three starters have WAR's of 1.7, 1, and .7. The Sox top three are 1.1, .7, and .6. However, the Sox 4 and 5 starters have WAR's of .6 and .3, and the Jays 4 and 5 are sort of undetermined.

 

Thanks to recent dingers given up, Barnes WAR has dropped to .8 and Whitlock's to .6. Then Valdez at .3, Sawamura at .2, and Ottavino at -.2.

 

The Jays bullpen WAR's are: Chatwood .9; Castro .6; Payamps (a name to conjure with) .5; Bergen .5; Phelps .4.

 

Season to date, Toronto's ERA is 3.82 and the Sox 3.89.

 

Season to date, the Sox run differential is +41 and the Jays is +40. That one run edge is because the Sox have scored 224 runs to the Jays 203.

 

In other words, the Sox have better hitting, the Jays better pitching, and overall these two teams are about even steven. Sox are 1.5 game ahead.

 

It might be possible that the Sox pitching is propped up by playing 10 games against the Orioles, which represents nearly one quarter of their schedule.

 

The Jays have not played any team 10 times yet, with their most frequent opponents being the Braves and the Yankees at 6 games each.

 

Those games represent about 1/3 of their schedule to date. The Braves curretnly rank 10th in MLB in runs scored. The Yankees are a disappointing 17th. But both are scoring more frequently than the Orioles (23rd)...

[mvp 78]

Time to bring Santana up. He's 9 for 20 at AAA. He looks to be ready. He's played all over the diamond.

[notin]

Time to bring Santana up. He's 9 for 20 at AAA. He looks to be ready. He's played all over the diamond.

 

I would imagine that happens soon.

 

It seems odd for a 1st place team to be counting on Danny Santana to be a savior...

[Bellhorn04]

I would imagine that happens soon.

 

It seems odd for a 1st place team to be counting on Danny Santana to be a savior...

 

Not a savior, just an uptick.

[mvp 78]

Not a savior, just an uptick.

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

I would imagine that happens soon.

 

It seems odd for a 1st place team to be counting on Danny Santana to be a savior...

 

Every team should try to improve themselves. When you have underperforming players, find someone who can replace them. It's not like Cordero is some sort of clubhouse glue guy.

 

The "it's a first place team" argument is nonsense. They are a first place team in spite of some of their players.

[Maxbialystock]

Santana has had 2 recent medical issues: foot infection this spring; and "ulnar collateral ligament repair and augmentation procedure" last September. That latter procedure is related to tommy john surgery.

 

He's 30 and has played 7 seasons of MLB, but only one of them good: 2019, when he played 130 games for Texas with 28 dingers, an OBP of .324, and an OPS of .857. He has neither pitched nor caught a game, but has played every other position.

 

So it sounds as though Chaim Bloom might have found someone who is now both healthy and showing signs of his 2019 capability.

 

On the other hand, the Sox have a very solid lineup already. Bobby Dalbec has looked better recently, and I read on last night's game thread that Franchy Cordero is "hitting the ball hard." Yes, Santana is a switch-hitter, but so is Marwin Gonzalez, who is also pretty versatile. Plus none of those three guys have foot or elbow issues.

 

[mvp 78]

Santana has had 2 recent medical issues: foot infection this spring; and "ulnar collateral ligament repair and augmentation procedure" last September. That latter procedure is related to tommy john surgery.

 

He's 30 and has played 7 seasons of MLB, but only one of them good: 2019, when he played 130 games for Texas with 28 dingers, an OBP of .324, and an OPS of .857. He has neither pitched nor caught a game, but has played every other position.

 

So it sounds as though Chaim Bloom might have found someone who is now both healthy and showing signs of his 2019 capability.

 

On the other hand, the Sox have a very solid lineup already. Bobby Dalbec has looked better recently, and I read on last night's game thread that Franchy Cordero is "hitting the ball hard." Yes, Santana is a switch-hitter, but so is Marwin Gonzalez, who is also pretty versatile. Plus none of those three guys have foot or elbow issues.

 

 

Cordero is hitting the ball hard, but his whiff rate is still really horrible.

[mvp 78]

38% whiff on FB. 35% whiff on offspeed. 51% whiff on breaking balls.

 

It doesn't matter how hard you hit it if you have that kind of hole in your swing.

[mvp 78]

Since some have suggested: "why don't they just put Mata on the 60 day IL?"

 

@redsoxpayroll

Also interesting to note here is that to put any minor league 40-man guy on the 60-day IL means:

 

-Starting/continuing their service time clocks as it's MLB time

-Paying them as big Leaguers

[moonslav59]

Assuming WAR is a useful measurement of pitching prowess, I notice that the Rays top three starters have WAR's of 1.7, 1, and .7. The Sox top three are 1.1, .7, and .6. However, the Sox 4 and 5 starters have WAR's of .6 and .3, and the Jays 4 and 5 are sort of undetermined.

 

Thanks to recent dingers given up, Barnes WAR has dropped to .8 and Whitlock's to .6. Then Valdez at .3, Sawamura at .2, and Ottavino at -.2.

 

The Jays bullpen WAR's are: Chatwood .9; Castro .6; Payamps (a name to conjure with) .5; Bergen .5; Phelps .4.

 

Season to date, Toronto's ERA is 3.82 and the Sox 3.89.

 

Season to date, the Sox run differential is +41 and the Jays is +40. That one run edge is because the Sox have scored 224 runs to the Jays 203.

 

In other words, the Sox have better hitting, the Jays better pitching, and overall these two teams are about even steven. Sox are 1.5 game ahead.

 

I like WAR a lot, but I don't think it does justice to RP'ers.

 

I prefer OPS Against. I used to like WHIP, but it counts a HR the same as a bloop single.

[moonslav59]

It might be possible that the Sox pitching is propped up by playing 10 games against the Orioles, which represents nearly one quarter of their schedule.

 

The Jays have not played any team 10 times yet, with their most frequent opponents being the Braves and the Yankees at 6 games each.

 

Those games represent about 1/3 of their schedule to date. The Braves curretnly rank 10th in MLB in runs scored. The Yankees are a disappointing 17th. But both are scoring more frequently than the Orioles (23rd)...

 

Our pitching splits indicate we've done pretty well over the last 28 days, which excludes 6 games vs the O's in early April.

 

Also, Richards, Pivetta and Perez have been awesome in their last 5 starts.

[moonslav59]

I would imagine that happens soon.

 

It seems odd for a 1st place team to be counting on Danny Santana to be a savior...

 

Not a savior, but a jump from .450 to .700 or .750 is as good as a jump from .750 to 1.000.

 

We have other areas that can be improved upon, too, but Cordero looks like the easiest one to fix, in system.

 

It's no sure bet Santana does better, and we'll never know if Cordero was about to get red hot, but demoting him, but at this point, it's worth a shot.

[moonslav59]

Since some have suggested: "why don't they just put Mata on the 60 day IL?"

 

@redsoxpayroll

Also interesting to note here is that to put any minor league 40-man guy on the 60-day IL means:

 

-Starting/continuing their service time clocks as it's MLB time

-Paying them as big Leaguers

 

I never knew this.

 

I don't see out 40 man roster as being squeezed, despite 10 guys not being available for ML use, right now.

 

I would not start the clock on Mata.

[moonslav59]

Pitcher A:

2.08 (.604 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher B

2.89 (.505 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher C

2.27 (.717 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

 

Pretty amazing having 3 SP'ers doing this well, right?

 

A: Perez

B: Pivetta

C: Richards

[Maxbialystock]

Cordero is hitting the ball hard, but his whiff rate is still really horrible.

 

"hitting the ball hard" was meant facetiously--at least, by me

[Maxbialystock]

Pitcher A:

2.08 (.604 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher B

2.89 (.505 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher C

2.27 (.717 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

 

Pretty amazing having 3 SP'ers doing this well, right?

 

A: Perez

B: Pivetta

C: Richards

 

You have said you prefer OPS against over ERA. If so, you must think that Richards' ERA of 2.27 is partly luck because his OPS against is .717.

[moonslav59]

You have said you prefer OPS against over ERA. If so, you must think that Richards' ERA of 2.27 is partly luck because his OPS against is .717.

 

I do, but he's a professional- like ERod. He bears down, when needed and does what it takes to get a win.

 

It's interesting that Richards' ERA went way down by taking away his start 6 games ago and adding last night's game, but his OPS against went up from .704 to .717.

 

BTW, I do like OPS against as much as any stat for SP'ers. ERA- or ERA+ is close, but no stat tells the whole story. WAR tries its best and comes closest.

[mvp 78]

I never knew this.

 

I don't see out 40 man roster as being squeezed, despite 10 guys not being available for ML use, right now.

 

I would not start the clock on Mata.

 

I didn't know that rule either. It's why I posted it.

[mvp 78]

"hitting the ball hard" was meant facetiously--at least, by me

 

He does hit the ball hard though. His Exit Velo is pretty good. All he is right now is EV and sprint speed.