A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sox Pitching Ranking

 

4th in fWAR 6.6 (Yanks are first at 7.3)

8th in ERA- 89 (NYY 3rd at 83)

10th in xFIP- 95 (Yanks are 4th at 88)

10th K/9 9.48

10th in K%/BB% 16.1

17th in WHIP 1.28 (NYY 2nd at 1.09)

17th BB/9 3.34

 

Our Opps have the 3rd best BAbip at .308 vs our staff. (.275 v Yanks)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Runs

217 BOS

216 HOU & CWS

208 CIN & LAD

199 COL

22. NYY 164

 

1st in OPS .772 (Yanks are 19th at .701)

3rd in wRC+ 112 (Yanks are 10th at 100)

29th in BB% 7.5% (6th lowest K% at 22.5%

2nd in BAbip .314

 

 

Geez, good thing the Bronx Bombasts have a hot hitter this year in Stanton --- whoops, injured... agaaaain?????

[moonslav59]

Geez, good thing the Bronx Bombasts have a hot hitter this year in Stanton --- whoops, injured... agaaaain?????

 

LOL, 19th in team OPS and they lose their best hitter.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 11-7 against teams over .500.

 

The Yanks are 10-12 (played 4 more gms than BOS v good teams)

TOR 12-9 (3 more)

TBR 14-14 (10 more)

 

[moonslav59]

Run Differential

 

73 CWS

56 HOU

51 LAD

47 SDP

45 BOS

36 SFG & TOR

20 TBR

14 STL

8 NYY

7 CLE

5 MIA

2 Cubs

 

OAK 25-17 (-8)

NYM 19-16 (-8)

MIL 21-20 (-16)

PHI 21-20 (-7)

SEA 21-21 (-19)

 

MIA 18-22 (+5)

[Bellhorn04]

But he wrote most of the CCR songs, and when he became a solo artist, was unsuccessfully sued by his former record label for - get this - sounding too much like John Fogerty. True story...

 

Yep, I knew all that, always been a big fan...

[moonslav59]

Taylor Swift is re-recording her old albums, so she can have the rights to the songs (only the new versions which sound exactly like the old one.)

 

No suit, here.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Kike said "Put me in, coach."

[Nick]

Trout goes to IL, could miss 6-8 weeks. The cost of Trout to the Angels is $35.542M annually through 2030.

 

There is no way I'd go watch the Angels just to watch Trout. Betts made a better decision. At least he went with a team with record of success. What does Trout think of when he wakes up? Well I'll have another $35M this year?

 

Baseball is about watching winning teams. I would no longer watch the Sox if they have ten straight losing seasons. No I'm not going to pick a new team. I would just lose interest in baseball. I'll watch as long as the ownership doing things to make the team better.

 

A pitcher maybe worth $35M if you can get on them early. There aren't very many of them. Even top line pitchers don't win all the pitched games. I saw that G Cole got hammered the other night.

 

I like Bloom's approach right now.

Edited May 19, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Another good outing by Andriese. 2.2 innings, 7 hits, 1BB, 3ER.

 

In his six outings in May, he posts ERA of 12.71.

 

Hitters have batting average of .320 for the year. Let's hope he can pitch like he did in April.

 

Texas Rangers has the worst hitting % given up at .259.

Edited May 19, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Our pen needs help.

[Key2Delock]

Never expected the Sox to ever be in first in the division at any time this season, so this stretch of the season has been interesting, but is there a good chance of their being in 4th place in the AL East after this coming weekend?

[moonslav59]

Never expected the Sox to ever be in first in the division at any time this season, so this stretch of the season has been interesting, but is there a good chance of their being in 4th place in the AL East after this coming weekend?

 

Nope.

 

We won't fall that easily.

[moonslav59]

I'm no longer hearing the clamor on extending ERod.

 

Maybe he is still dealing with lingering COVID affects, but it looks like it was a good idea to wait.

 

ERod (5-3 in his starts)

3.53 (team 4-0) in his first 4 starts.

6.00 (team 1-3) in his last 4 starts.

 

Here's a breakdown of some other starter's numbers:

 

Richards (4-4):

6.48 (1-3) first 4

2.16 (3-1) last 4

 

Eovaldi (5-4)

3.04 (3-1) first 4

5.81 (2-3) last 5

 

Pivetta (7-1)

3.48 (3-1) first 4

2.86 (4-0) last 4

 

Perez (4-4)

5.71 (3-1) first 4

1.61 (1-3) last 4 (freaky team record splits!)

 

The team is 7-1 in Pivetta starts and 18-17 in all other starts.

 

Pivetta has been a Godsend.

Perez has deserved to be one.

 

[notin]

Never expected the Sox to ever be in first in the division at any time this season, so this stretch of the season has been interesting, but is there a good chance of their being in 4th place in the AL East after this coming weekend?

 

Only a 1.5 game difference right now, but even if the Sox have a tough week, Tampa and Toronto play each other this weekend, so one of them will get a loss in each game...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm no longer hearing the clamor on extending ERod.

 

Maybe he is still dealing with lingering COVID affects, but it looks like it was a good idea to wait.

 

Who knows? Maybe it would have been the perfect time to extend him. Or maybe that ship has sailed forever.

 

All in Bloom's hands.

[moonslav59]

Who knows? Maybe it would have been the perfect time to extend him. Or maybe that ship has sailed forever.

 

All in Bloom's hands.

 

It's hard to know how much Bloom values ERod.

 

It's hard for anyone to place a value on him. We should know more by season's end.

 

I hope he regains his form and knack for pitching just well enough to get the win for the team.

[mvp 78]

Who knows? Maybe it would have been the perfect time to extend him. Or maybe that ship has sailed forever.

 

All in Bloom's hands.

 

I posted elsewhere that he has dealt with bad luck and bad pitch mix. If he stops throwing his slider anywhere near the zone, he'll be fine.

[Nick]

It's interesting to project out mega players requiring big money on our roster. A team can only so many of these contracts. I think three is the max on any team. I would say $25M or around it is a mega contract. Xander and JD Martinez fall short of that. Chris Sale in the only player for the Sox getting a mega deal.

 

Next up should be Devers. Don't shoot me but I prefer Devers over Betts due to age and power.

 

As good as Verdugo can be, he won't get $25M with the Sox.

 

We need an ace type for 2022. Choose wisely Mr. Bloom come this winter.

[Maxbialystock]

I posted elsewhere that he has dealt with bad luck and bad pitch mix. If he stops throwing his slider anywhere near the zone, he'll be fine.

 

I think his cutter and fastball are also suspect. Most of all, he finally needs to improve his command. Last night his changeup looked pretty good to me, it had some bite at the end. But even that is hittable near the middle of the strike zone.

 

FIP is a stupid stat that ignores the reality that poor pitching includes serving up fat pitches in the middle of the strike zone which get hit hard. FIP only notices when those hard hit pitches become dingers.

[Maxbialystock]

It's interesting to project out mega players requiring big money on our roster. A team can only so many of these contracts. I think three is the max on any team. I would say $25M or around it is a mega contract. Xander and JD Martinez fall short of that. Chris Sale in the only player for the Sox getting a mega deal.

 

Next up should be Devers. Don't shoot me but I prefer Devers over Betts due to age and power.

 

As good as Verdugo can be, he won't get $25M with the Sox.

 

We need an ace type for 2022. Choose wisely Mr. Bloom come this winter.

 

I agree that $25M should be mega, but the rest of the known universe does not. I prefer Bogie, Devers, JDM and maybe even Verdugo to Mookie, but only because of his insane contract. I'm even getting to like Renfroe in RF (despite that awful throw last night). One slot of 9 in the batting order and one position of 9 in the field cannot justify all that money no matter how much espn loves to hype their anointed superstars.

 

Sadly, an "ace type" still tends to be pricey as well as a gamble.

[moonslav59]

I think his cutter and fastball are also suspect. Most of all, he finally needs to improve his command. Last night his changeup looked pretty good to me, it had some bite at the end. But even that is hittable near the middle of the strike zone.

 

FIP is a stupid stat that ignores the reality that poor pitching includes serving up fat pitches in the middle of the strike zone which get hit hard. FIP only notices when those hard hit pitches become dingers.

 

How would you rank the 10 best pitchers since 1991?

 

1000+ IP

 

A

Randy Johnson

Greg Maddux

Roger Clemens

Pedro Martinez

Mike Mussina

Curt Schilling

J Verlander

Kevin Brown

Andy Pettite

C Kershaw

 

B

C Kershaw

J deGrom

Pedro Martrinez

Greg Maddux

Chris Sale

Johan Santana

G Cole

C Kluber

M Scherzer

K Hendricks

 

C

deGrom

Kershaw

Sale

Pedro

Stasburg

Kluber

Cole

Johnson

Scherzer

Maddux

 

I might like A, then C, then B, but B and C are close.

 

A= WAR

B= ERA

C= FIP

 

Here's ERA-

63 Kershaw (may drop as he ages)

65 deGrom (same)

67 Pedro

71 Clemens

72 Sale

72 Johnson

72 Webb

73 J Santana

75 Kluber

 

Looks better than "B", despite Brandon Webb.

 

How about xFIP?

Sale

deGrom

Strasburg

Kershaw

Kluber

Eldred

Schilling

Cole

Johnson

Halladay

 

(No Pedro?)

 

My top 5:

1. Pedro

2. Clemens

3. Maddux

4. Sale

5. deGrom

Edited May 19, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

I'm with you on Bloom and on building winning teams, and I hate those foolish, gigantic contracts.

 

That said, there have definitely been players with immense fan appeal--like the Babe, like the Splendid Splinter, like Sandy Koufax--and a slew of others. Trout has pretty much delivered every year and appears to be a shoo-in for the HOF. But I'm pretty sure he hasn't affected the Angels attendance all that much. In fact, I just checked: attendance was higher in 2009, 2010, and 2011, before his rookie year of 2012. And since then attendance has not returned to pre-2012 levels.

[Nick]

Line up next 1/4 of season

 

C Vaz

1B Platoon Dalbec with lefty

2b Arroyo

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

 

throw in Santana and the line up looks pretty solid. We're removing sub .200 hitter in Cordero and adding a .300 hitter in Dalbec 1/3 of time. Other 2/3 should hit better than Dalbec's current sub .200 performance. Isn't this what analytics are all about?

 

Problem with Chavis must be his defense...I doubt the Sox sees him as a permanent 1B, position he should work on is left field.

 

It's all about fixing the pen right now.

Edited May 19, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm with you on Bloom and on building winning teams, and I hate those foolish, gigantic contracts.

 

That said, there have definitely been players with immense fan appeal--like the Babe, like the Splendid Splinter, like Sandy Koufax--and a slew of others. Trout has pretty much delivered every year and appears to be a shoo-in for the HOF. But I'm pretty sure he hasn't affected the Angels attendance all that much. In fact, I just checked: attendance was higher in 2009, 2010, and 2011, before his rookie year of 2012. And since then attendance has not returned to pre-2012 levels.

 

I would go watch Sale in his best year. Trout plays every day and you're taking a chance he may not even get a hit. I don't think fans go watch just one position player. A starting pitcher? Yes.

[dgalehouse]

To fully evaluate pitchers , we need more alphabet soup stats. Why stop with FIP and WHIP ? How about ZIP , SKIP , FLIP and DIP ?

[Bellhorn04]

To fully evaluate pitchers , we need more alphabet soup stats. Why stop with FIP and WHIP ? How about ZIP , SKIP , FLIP and DIP ?

 

Hey, you left out BABIP.

[Maxbialystock]

How would you rank the 10 best pitchers since 1991?

 

1000+ IP

 

A

Randy Johnson

Greg Maddux

Roger Clemens

Pedro Martinez

Mike Mussina

Curt Schilling

J Verlander

Kevin Brown

Andy Pettite

C Kershaw

 

B

C Kershaw

J deGrom

Pedro Martrinez

Greg Maddux

Chris Sale

Johan Santana

G Cole

C Kluber

M Scherzer

K Hendricks

 

C

deGrom

Kershaw

Sale

Pedro

Stasburg

Kluber

Cole

Johnson

Scherzer

Maddux

 

I might like A, then C, then B, but B and C are close.

 

A= WAR

B= ERA

C= FIP

 

Here's ERA-

63 Kershaw (may drop as he ages)

65 deGrom (same)

67 Pedro

71 Clemens

72 Sale

72 Johnson

72 Webb

73 J Santana

75 Kluber

 

Looks better than "B", despite Brandon Webb.

 

How about xFIP?

Sale

deGrom

Strasburg

Kershaw

Kluber

Eldred

Schilling

Cole

Johnson

Halladay

 

(No Pedro?)

 

My top 5:

1. Pedro

2. Clemens

3. Maddux

4. Sale

5. deGrom

 

You have absolutely no peer in laying down stats that tell great stories. Stunning. Wild applause!

 

Clemens was great, but stepped over the line, which to me is unforgivable.

[moonslav59]

You have absolutely no peer in laying down stats that tell great stories. Stunning. Wild applause!

 

Clemens was great, but stepped over the line, which to me is unforgivable.

 

I agree.

 

I almost took the Rocket off my list, but he was really great, as a pitcher.

 

As person, he's a real dick, and not just with the cheating and lying in baseball.

 

(He lives in my hometown: Sugar Land)

 

BTW, I'm not a fan of FIP, but it does give some valuable information. It's just not the whole story- as no stat is.

 

To me, there are a lot of really good pitchers who pitch to contact and don't get a lot of K's, but the ball that are hit are not hit hard and mostly go for outs. They don't look good with FIP.

Edited May 19, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree.

 

I almost took the Rocket off my list, but he was really great, as a pitcher.

 

As person, he's a real dick, and not just with the cheating and lying in baseball.

 

(He lives in my hometown: Sugar Land)

 

BTW, I'm not a fan of FIP, but it does give some valuable information. It's just not the whole story- as no stat is.

 

To me, there are a lot of really good pitchers who pitch to contact and don't get a lot of K's, but the ball that are hit are not hit hard and mostly go for outs. They don't look good with FIP.

 

Great lists, thanks. I would take A, but would defy the digits by flipping a few guys (mainly from my own personal preferences). For example, I'd take Maddux over Johnson, solely because I hate walks so much; I know RJ settled down after leading the league three straight years, but Greg had the best BB per 9 for 9 seasons. And just for big games that I had a rooting interest -- for or against -- I'd take Pedro over Rog, Schilling over Mussina, and Pettite over Brown.