A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

He does hit the ball hard though. His Exit Velo is pretty good. All he is right now is EV and sprint speed.

 

Cordero's K rate has actually dropped a lot.

 

It's 20% in May (8 in 40 PAs).

 

It was 47% in April (26/55).

[notin]

Not a savior, but a jump from .450 to .700 or .750 is as good as a jump from .750 to 1.000.

 

We have other areas that can be improved upon, too, but Cordero looks like the easiest one to fix, in system.

 

It's no sure bet Santana does better, and we'll never know if Cordero was about to get red hot, but demoting him, but at this point, it's worth a shot.

 

 

Expecting a .750 OPS from Santana might be a tad optimistic, since he has only topped that number twice in his career - once in his rookie season in 2014 and again in the Juiced Ball 2019 season....

Edited May 20, 2021 by notin

[mvp 78]

Cordero's K rate has actually dropped a lot.

 

It's 20% in May (8 in 40 PAs).

 

It was 47% in April (26/55).

 

Whiff % and K % aren't the same thing.

[moonslav59]

Expecting a .750 OPS from Santana might be a tad optimistic, since he has only topped that number twice in his career - once in his rookie season in 2014 and again in the Juiced Ball 2019 season....

 

I did mention .700 or .750, but even .600 is a big gain over .450.

[moonslav59]

Whiff % and K % aren't the same thing.

 

He's improved vastly on both.

[oldtimer]

Cordero's K rate has actually dropped a lot.

 

It's 20% in May (8 in 40 PAs).

 

It was 47% in April (26/55).

 

So who will Santana displace? Will it be Cordero, Chavis or other?

[moonslav59]

So who will Santana displace? Will it be Cordero, Chavis or other?

 

If it was up to me:

 

1) Brice (DFA)

2) Cordero

3) Chavis

 

Bloom/Cora's likely choice (close call):

1) Cordero

2) Chavis

[Nick]

Pitcher A:

2.08 (.604 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher B

2.89 (.505 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

Pitcher C

2.27 (.717 OPS against) Last 5 starts

 

 

Pretty amazing having 3 SP'ers doing this well, right?

 

A: Perez

B: Pivetta

C: Richards

 

Makes you think what the top line offer will be for E Rod. I prefer big money for an ace type and then go find other Pivetta's. I think we have one in Whitlock when he's stretched out at some point. Tanner Houck too.

Edited May 21, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Does anyone think Santana is better version of Marwin? If versatility is key to being on Sox bench, at least train Chavis in LF at some point. I always think he's getting the shaft from Cora. I don't know what he's done to piss off Cora. He's hitting something like .275 and I'm sure his ops is higher than Marwin's.....

[moonslav59]

Since Renfroe should only play vs LHPs, we have Kike, Marwin, Chavis and Santana (assuming he replaced Cordero) to play 2B, CF and LF 2/3 of the time[/b.

 

4 players for 2.7 positions plus when players rest at 1B, 3B, SS and RF. That's about 3 full positions and enough AB for everyone, especially if they sit Dalbec against some RHPs, as he is struggling mightily vs righties.

[oldtimer]

Since Renfroe should only play vs LHPs, we have Kike, Marwin, Chavis and Santana (assuming he replaced Cordero) to play 2B, CF and LF 2/3 of the time[/b.

 

4 players for 2.7 positions plus when players rest at 1B, 3B, SS and RF. That's about 3 full positions and enough AB for everyone, especially if they sit Dalbec against some RHPs, as he is struggling mightily vs righties.

 

Chavis didn't help himself with the careless error tonight.

[Key2Delock]

Nope.

 

We won't fall that easily.

 

Stranger things have happened. If (1) the Red Sox don’t rally to win tonight and (though this seems unlikely) they get swept by the Phillies, (2) the Yankees win 2 of 3 against the White Sox, and (3) Toronto takes 2 of 3 from Tampa, next Monday morning, the Yankees will be 27-20, Toronto will be 26-19, Tampa will be 27-21 and the Red Sox will be 26-22 in fourth place in the AL East.

 

EDIT: It's always good to work the "reverse jinx" and see that 9th-inning rally and a comeback win!

Edited May 21, 2021 by Key2Delock

[moonslav59]

Chavis didn't help himself with the careless error tonight.

 

He did with his line drive hit in the 9th.

[moonslav59]

Chavis should stay.

[Nick]

Great Win...

 

I love Sox going into national team parks.

 

In essence we're replacing a fielder (Cordero) with JD. Our pitchers hit almost as well as Cordero.

[Nick]

He's not going to get better seeing minor league pitchers, no way.

[moonslav59]

He's not going to get better seeing minor league pitchers, no way.

 

It happens enough times to make it worth a shot.

 

Build confidence.

 

Work out the kinks.

 

A different coach working with him.

 

Playing every day.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec up to .690! (he was at .558 on May 10.)

He's been at 1.279 since getting a couple days off (5/11-5/12)

Kike up to .768.

Vaz to .678.

Chavis .806.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec up to .690! (he was at .558 on May 10.)

He's been at 1.279 since getting a couple days off (5/11-5/12)

 

Looks like Dalbec Fever is back on. And I'll say it again, Cora has done a great job handling his struggles.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Dalbec Fever is back on. And I'll say it again, Cora has done a great job handling his struggles.

 

It's also another example of why you don't give up on someone after 1-2 weeks, let alone 6 weeks!

 

(I don't feel this way towards Cordero.)

[Nick]

It's also another example of why you don't give up on someone after 1-2 weeks, let alone 6 weeks!

 

(I don't feel this way towards Cordero.)

 

Dalbec performed well in 2020 in limited time. He showed his potential. He's homegrown.

 

I'm not as vested in Cordero. Good athlete, has all the physical tools. So did Michael Jordan.

 

With what appeared to be very solid Sox offense, putting Dalbec in 9th spot and just leaving him there seemed no brainer to me. Again, part of it was based on his dingers in 2020.

 

With Cordero in the lineup, it seemed like we were hitting our pitchers.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec performed well in 2020 in limited time. He showed his potential. He's homegrown.

 

I'm not as vested in Cordero. Good athlete, has all the physical tools. So did Michael Jordan.

 

With what appeared to be very solid Sox offense, putting Dalbec in 9th spot and just leaving him there seemed no brainer to me. Again, part of it was based on his dingers in 2020.

 

With Cordero in the lineup, it seemed like we were hitting our pitchers.

 

We've seen Dalbec be streaky and hit bombs. We've only seen Cordero be not very good.

[Nick]

We've seen Dalbec be streaky and hit bombs. We've only seen Cordero be not very good.

 

Exactly!

[moonslav59]

Cordero has looked good while others- not us- have watched. Just in scattered short sample sizes and in the minors.

[Nick]

Can the line up end up something like this with 13 pitchers?

 

1 Kike 2B

2 Verdugo LF

3 JD DH

4 Xander SS

5 Devers 3B

6 Vaz C

7 Renfroe RF

8 Duran CF

9 Dalbec 1B

 

Santana, Arroyo, catcher, Marwin or Chavis, I would pick Chavis for power component, Marwin's versatility is diminished by Santana.

[notin]

Can the line up end up something like this with 13 pitchers?

 

1 Kike 2B

2 Verdugo LF

3 JD DH

4 Xander SS

5 Devers 3B

6 Vaz C

7 Renfroe RF

8 Duran CF

9 Dalbec 1B

 

Santana, Arroyo, catcher, Marwin or Chavis, I would pick Chavis for power component, Marwin's versatility is diminished by Santana.

 

Chavis can be demoted. Marwin cannot and would have to be DFAd.

 

I’ve never been big on Marwin Gonzalez, but Danny Santana is not necessarily an improvement. In fact, history suggests he’s a step backwards...

[mvp 78]

Can the line up end up something like this with 13 pitchers?

 

1 Kike 2B

2 Verdugo LF

3 JD DH

4 Xander SS

5 Devers 3B

6 Vaz C

7 Renfroe RF

8 Duran CF

9 Dalbec 1B

 

Santana, Arroyo, catcher, Marwin or Chavis, I would pick Chavis for power component, Marwin's versatility is diminished by Santana.

 

Swap Duran and Kiké

[mvp 78]

Chavis can be demoted. Marwin cannot and would have to be DFAd.

 

I’ve never been big on Marwin Gonzalez, but Danny Santana is not necessarily an improvement. In fact, history suggests he’s a step backwards...

 

My 13:

Devers

Xander

JD

Vaz

Verdugo

Kiké

Renfroe

Arroyo

Chavis

Duran

Plawecki

Marwin

Dalbec

[moonslav59]

My 13 once Arroyo returns and assuming Duran is still not ML ready:

Devers

Xander

JD

Vaz

Verdugo

Kiké

Renfroe

Arroyo

Chavis

Santana

Plawecki

Marwin

Dalbec

 

When Duran is ready, it's Chavis vs Santana. Marwin ain't going anywhere.

[mvp 78]

My 13 once Arroyo returns and assuming Duran is still not ML ready:

Devers

Xander

JD

Vaz

Verdugo

Kiké

Renfroe

Arroyo

Chavis

Santana

Plawecki

Marwin

Dalbec

 

When Duran is ready, it's Chavis vs Santana. Marwin ain't going anywhere.

 

My assumption is that Santana has lots of versatility, but a very limited ceiling. I think I would give a shot to Chavis instead. I bet we see Santana scuffle.