A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I would not extend Eovaldi. I might even trade him at the deadline.

 

ERod is the tough call. The guy has been a winner, but the long term effects of COVID are unknown.

 

We need an ace, next year. We may have to try and get by with replacing ERod & Eovaldi with a FA & Sale with hopes that Seabold, Houck and maybe someone else stepping into the 5-6 starter slot.

 

Eovaldi is under contract through 2022.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is under contract through 2022.

 

Yes, he is. I was talking about trading him, this summer, and I guess I was assuming he was gone. I made it sound like he was a FA, too.

[iortiz]

Eovaldi ain’t go anywhere. His run prevention metrics are great and he looks 100% healthy. You won’t find an arm available with his pedigree in the market/trade (on the cheap) at his cost.

[Nick]

Yes, he is. I was talking about trading him, this summer, and I guess I was assuming he was gone. I made it sound like he was a FA, too.

 

My hope is Houck comes back 100% and is ready to take a rotation spot next year. Whitlock, Seabold and others can become depth pieces.

 

Assuming we can sign an ace type this winter, say at $30M and is a proven winner, still possessing good stuff, we can get that money via E Rod$8.3M, Pedey, $13.75M and Beni $2.8M. Throw in $5M that we're under the cap, that's total of $29M. Say we do nothing else, our rotation could be deep in 2022. Remember, with pitchers, you never know.

 

1 Ace

2 Sale

3 Eovaldi (last year)

4 Richards (last year)

5 Pivetta

6 Perez, (club option)

7 Houck

8 Whitlock

9 Seabold

 

With Eovaldi, Richards and Perez, it'll buy us another year to develop our younger pitching depth. One or two can be traded in July 2022.

 

Ottavino's luxury tax payroll is $7.2M this year. That money can help Sox retain Barnes who is currently making $4.5M. I think Barnes wants to stay. Just my gut feeling.

 

With position players, I think we're pretty well set. Devers will get a hefty raise from current $4.575M. Marwin is on a one year deal at $3M (?). I don't think he'll be back.

 

Sooooo just know that I can very much be a fair weather fan. I thought Barnes was a big wuss, could not count on to close. How things change. It's good to be a fan. I can make mistakes all day long........

Edited May 22, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

This is last year of E Rod's team control with the Sox. This concludes the evaluation period for the deal Sox made with the Orioles. I'd say Sox made out like a bank robber. Talk about great value. He has started 130 games, has 56-33 record with 4.07 ERA. All that for approximately $15M.

 

In 2015, I only watched games when he started. He went 10-6 after being traded to the Sox. We sucked that year. (I may have my years confused)

 

I'd say shove that up your a** Buck Showalter. I just hated that guy. All he wanted to do was to beat the Sox. He didn't care about anything else.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Nick

[oldtimer]

My hope is Houck comes back 100% and is ready to take a rotation spot next year. Whitlock, Seabold and others can become depth pieces.

 

Assuming we can sign an ace type this winter, say at $30M and is a proven winner, still possessing good stuff, we can get that money via E Rod$8.3M, Pedey, $13.75M and Beni $2.8M. Throw in $5M that we're under the cap, that's total of $29M. Say we do nothing else, our rotation could be deep in 2022. Remember, with pitchers, you never know.

 

1 Ace

2 Sale

3 Eovaldi (last year)

4 Richards (last year)

5 Pivetta

6 Perez, (club option)

7 Houck

8 Whitlock

9 Seabold

 

With Eovaldi, Richards and Perez, it'll buy us another year to develop our pitching depth. One or two can be traded in July 2022.

 

Ottavino's luxury tax payroll is $7.2M this year. That money can help Sox retain Barnes who is currently making $4.5M. I think Barnes wants to stay. Just my gut feeling.

 

With position players, I think we're pretty well set. Devers will get a hefty raise from current $4.575M. Marwin is on a one year deal at $3M (?). I don't think he'll be back.

 

Sooooo just know that I can very much be a fair weather fan. I thought Barnes was a big wuss, could not count on to close. How things change. It's good to be a fan. I can make mistakes all day long........

 

I think we will see the Sox starting rotation in 2022 to include:

 

1. Pivetta'

2. Richards (resign)

3. Sale

4. Perez (option exercized)

5. Ace level acquisition

6. Houck (Whitlock, Seabold both possibles)

 

Relief Pitching:

1. Keep Barnes (if possible financially)

2. Valdez

3. dHern

4. Sawamura

5. Taylor

6. Bazardo

7. Whitlock

8. Seabold

 

I see Ottavino, Basier both leaving

 

In the outfield I expect Verdugo, Duran and Renfroe with Hernandez as a solid utility backup

 

In the infield I see Devers, Bogaerts, Arroyo (his job to lose) with competition between Dalbec and Casas at 1st.

 

Will JDM stay another year as DH? His performance this year may generate multi -year offers that the Sox would be reluctant to match.

[Nick]

I'm not opposed to re-signing E Rod but in this case we're not upgrading the staff. We're bringing back the SAME pitcher we paid $8.3M for say $20M. What do we gain?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not opposed to re-signing E Rod but in this case we're not upgrading the staff. We're bringing back the SAME pitcher we paid $8.3M for say $20M. What do we gain?

 

That's free agency.

 

Can you spend the $20M better is the question.

[Nick]

That's free agency.

 

Can you spend the $20M better is the question.

 

If you're going to spend $12M more to get the same pitcher, wouldn't you consider spending $10M more for a top line, win two games in a playoff series type ace?

 

We may have chance to win the World Series in 2022 with Sale back healthy and addition of an ace and signing Barnes as the closer using Ottavino money.

 

Ace, Sale, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetti, Perez, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold (?).......whoever doesn't start goes to the pen.

 

We'd still be near the luxury tax limit. All the position players return other than Marwin. I think he's the only one on a one year deal.

 

Most important thing is that we haven't traded away any young talent and the farm system continues to improve.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

These prospects could be future closers per MLB

 

Red Sox: Jacob Wallace, RHP (No. 28)

One of the top relief prospects in the 2019 Draft, Wallace went to the Rockies in the third round after setting a Connecticut record with 16 saves and joined the Red Sox last September as the player to be named in the Kevin Pillar trade. He has a pair of plus pitches in a 93-97 mph four-seam fastball with late tail and a sweeping 82-85 mph slider with depth

 

Bloom is doing well with these Players To Be Named transactions.

[Bellhorn04]

These prospects could be future closers per MLB

 

Red Sox: Jacob Wallace, RHP (No. 28)

One of the top relief prospects in the 2019 Draft, Wallace went to the Rockies in the third round after setting a Connecticut record with 16 saves and joined the Red Sox last September as the player to be named in the Kevin Pillar trade. He has a pair of plus pitches in a 93-97 mph four-seam fastball with late tail and a sweeping 82-85 mph slider with depth

 

Bloom is doing well with these Players To Be Named transactions.

 

Bloom is living up to his Rays pedigree as a finder of pitching.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi ain’t go anywhere. His run prevention metrics are great and he looks 100% healthy. You won’t find an arm available with his pedigree in the market/trade (on the cheap) at his cost.

 

He's been more bust than contributor.

 

Just because he's been healthy for 9 starts means very little going forward.

 

Other pitchers have gotten less than $17M x 4 and done better.

[moonslav59]

We have a $10M option on Richards for next year.

 

I don't think we plan to stay under the tax line, next season, especially if we stay under, this year.

 

The second tax line may be the limit, so maybe we have $19M to spend beyond the tax line.

 

That's enough for several major additions.

[Nick]

Dear God, I can't watch Cordero swing and miss much longer.......I want to bang my head on my coffee table....

[Larry Cook]

Dear God, I can't watch Cordero swing and miss much longer.......I want to bang my head on my coffee table....

 

Amen brother! Could not agree more.

 

I hope the analytics guys know more than we do on this guy.

[moonslav59]

I thought Santana would replace Franchy, but I guess it will have to be Arroyo.

[Larry Cook]

I thought Santana would replace Franchy, but I guess it will have to be Arroyo.

 

Arroyo started his rehab. Decision time is coming soon,

[oldtimer]

Excellent win for the Sox last night had this old man up til the end. Our pitching was g with the exception of Valdez, who can and did have severe command issues. Our offense was limited by having to sit Verdugo, playing without a DH, starting a backup catcher, the light hitting Cordero and Dalbec who is looking lost at the plate. Despite that we did just enough to pull it out while the Phillies threw all the pitching they could at us.

[oldtimer]

Jarred Duran yesterday

 

 

 

Jarred Duran, RF: 5-5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI

 

Bring him up soon.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi ain’t go anywhere. His run prevention metrics are great and he looks 100% healthy. You won’t find an arm available with his pedigree in the market/trade (on the cheap) at his cost.

 

I'm with you. Eovaldi fanboy here.

[notin]

I thought Santana would replace Franchy, but I guess it will have to be Arroyo.

 

It will be Cordero when the opposing team starts a southpaw...

[Bellhorn04]

He's been more bust than contributor.

 

Just because he's been healthy for 9 starts means very little going forward.

 

Other pitchers have gotten less than $17M x 4 and done better.

 

Other pitchers have gotten more and done worse, too, of course, so that statement doesn't mean a whole lot.

 

FanGraphs says he has earned $19 million on this deal so far. His AAV to date is about $29 million ($17 + $7 + $5).

 

So he's in the mild bust zone with 1.7 years left to go.

[moonslav59]

It will be Cordero when the opposing team starts a southpaw...

 

...until Arroyo returns.

 

Both Santana and Arroyo hit righties better than Cordero.

 

We could, however, see Santana at 1B vs some tough righties, as Dalbec has been really bad on that split.

[Nick]

We have two off days coming up and this is the line up? If I'm the starting pitcher, I'm thinking WTF.

[Nick]

Jarred Duran yesterday

 

 

 

Jarred Duran, RF: 5-5, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI

 

Bring him up soon.

 

Yep.......I think we've passed the date for full year major league credit......like the article said, no way he's doesn't belong. Who would you rather watch? Heck, I'm more excited about him than Dalbec.

[dgalehouse]

Duran's pending arrival is probably the most anticipated since Mookie.

[oldtimer]

We have two off days coming up and this is the line up? If I'm the starting pitcher, I'm thinking WTF.

 

It looks like a giveaway. But why?

[oldtimer]

Yep.......I think we've passed the date for full year major league credit......like the article said, no way he's doesn't belong. Who would you rather watch? Heck, I'm more excited about him than Dalbec.

Speaking of Duran's HR's yesterday:

 

The 24-year-old left-handed hitter went 5-for-5 with two home runs Saturday to help lead the WooSox over Buffalo, 7-4. His home runs traveled 480 feet and 475 feet.

 

That is a show of power.

[moonslav59]

Guys, get used to it: it's

 

Jarren

 

Duran

 

not Jarred.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran's pending arrival is probably the most anticipated since Mookie.

 

Way more... there wasn't any legendary power/speed hype when Betts was on the verge of being called up. Mookie hit 5 homers in 45 games in Triple A before his call-up. Duran has 7 in 17 games. Betts was more a contact guy who could fly: 61 BB vs. 50 Ks, with 33 SBs his last minor league season. Duran's '21 so far: 10 BBs vs. 20 Ks, 4 steals, 2 CS.