A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

I don't think questioning why a guy who was 0-25 is starting games is accurately described as 'bitching'! But hey, as long as he gets 3 hits a game, and doesn't misplay balls in the field, I have no complaints.

 

 

Technically he didn’t start...

[mvp 78]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

[kenmeister]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

 

Great. I hope he works his way back to us.

 

Now I'm wondering what Brian Johnson is up to as well

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

 

Can't hurt.

 

So, we got Pivetta, Seabold and Workman for Hembree.

[moonslav59]

One fifth of the season over.

[notin]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

 

They only did it to entice Matt Barnes to sign an extension

[moonslav59]

They only did it to entice Matt Barnes to sign an extension

 

Then, we'll trade him to the Phillies for 2 more young players.

[iortiz]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

 

Excuse my ignorance but how does a MiLB contract work?

[mvp 78]

Excuse my ignorance but how does a MiLB contract work?

 

He can go play for AAA and not be on 40 man. He can work his way back and get promoted again. Depending on his contract, he could get promoted and just be paid minimum.

[iortiz]

He can go play for AAA and not be on 40 man. He can work his way back and get promoted again. Depending on his contract, he could get promoted and just be paid minimum.

 

Oh I see. Thanks MVP.

 

Hopefully Workman somehow bounce back.

[illinoisredsox]

I got the feeling the Tigers knew what was coming. They scored against most of our pitchers

 

That can be interpreted two ways, one of which is possibly a serious accusation, depending on how it’s done. (And given Detroit’s season-long offensive struggles, it probably isn’t being done.)

 

But the other one is on the Sox pitching staff...

 

You make crappy pitches, they will get hit. The Tigers also got several infield and other soft hits in this series. Any player will tell you sometimes those will get you out of a funk and maybe some of those got some Tigers going a little bit. They played aggressively in the base paths.

 

Detroit started the year by going 6-6 against Cleveland, Minnesota and Houston (sweeping the Astros in Texas). That may very well be their limit as far as their good streaks go this season, but they will have a few streaks like it over the course of the season. I hate playing teams that come in a 2-16 slump (or whatever they were) because no team can play that badly forever and they will come out of it at some point.

 

I'm more concerned over the overall sloppiness of the Sox in multiple phases of the game.

[moonslav59]

Ugly wins are way better than ugly losses, but winning like that does not make me feel like we are on a good path or trend.

 

The 9 game winning streak created a feeling that our weaknesses could be easily overcome. They did not disappear. They were always there and will continue to be there, unless some changes are made or some players step up or grow out of their weaknesses.

 

We can't expect a major infusion of talent at the deadline. I seriously doubt we go all out on that front. I even have serious doubts we'd go over the tax line for just some modest additions.

 

Our best hopes are likely already in our system. Sale is the obvious player, but we could see some help coming from players already on the 26 man roster who started slowly (Renfroe, Dalbec, Cordero and others). I'm not all that hopeful on players in the minors, now, making a major impact (Santana, Duran, Arauz, Seabold, Chavis, Downs, Casas and others), but maybe Brasier, Houck and Bazardo can gives us "just enough."

 

Assuming we are in the race by the deadline, we'll likely add a RP'er and a bat, but we won't give up any top prospects to get them. We might get some help from the farm and players returning from injuries, but we'll need to keep all our key players healthy- even those not known for having the best of health.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic. We only have to win 55% of our remaining games to reach 90 wins and 58% to win 95. Right now, we're at .594.

[notin]

Ugly wins are way better than ugly losses, but winning like that does not make me feel like we are on a good path or trend.

 

The 9 game winning streak created a feeling that our weaknesses could be easily overcome. They did not disappear. They were always there and will continue to be there, unless some changes are made or some players step up or grow out of their weaknesses.

 

We can't expect a major infusion of talent at the deadline. I seriously doubt we go all out on that front. I even have serious doubts we'd go over the tax line for just some modest additions.

 

Our best hopes are likely already in our system. Sale is the obvious player, but we could see some help coming from players already on the 26 man roster who started slowly (Renfroe, Dalbec, Cordero and others). I'm not all that hopeful on players in the minors, now, making a major impact (Santana, Duran, Arauz, Seabold, Chavis, Downs, Casas and others), but maybe Brasier, Houck and Bazardo can gives us "just enough."

 

Assuming we are in the race by the deadline, we'll likely add a RP'er and a bat, but we won't give up any top prospects to get them. We might get some help from the farm and players returning from injuries, but we'll need to keep all our key players healthy- even those not known for having the best of health.

 

I'm trying to stay optimistic. We only have to win 55% of our remaining games to reach 90 wins and 58% to win 95. Right now, we're at .594.

 

Any deadline additions will probably be minimal. If the Sox are in a position to be buyers, I still think they will do something like a "buyer and seller" dual role like Billy Beane used to do back in the 90's. Matt Barnes headlines the list of trade candidates, especially if he keeps this up...

[moonslav59]

Any deadline additions will probably be minimal. If the Sox are in a position to be buyers, I still think they will do something like a "buyer and seller" dual role like Billy Beane used to do back in the 90's. Matt Barnes headlines the list of trade candidates, especially if he keeps this up...

 

It will be difficult to keep fan interest, if we are a borderline playoff team at the deadline, and decide to be sellers. In a way, it makes sense to sell off any and every piece not part of the longer term outlook, but that might sour too many fans, and bring about a moderate loss of revenue for a year or two. I'm not even sure if we have the best record in the AL, we'll make major trades or additions.

 

We'll probably play it halfway, and trade a few low-promise prospects for a couple players that may help us get to the playoffs without hurting our future.

 

In some ways, being 15 down at the deadline would make Bloom's choice easier and more fruitful- in terms of the 2022 and beyond plan.

 

Free Agents after 2021:

Eduardo Rodriquez

Matt Barnes

Adam Ottavino

Marwin Gonzalez

(Pedey's deal is over)

 

Team options after 2021:

Garrett Richards

Christian Vazquez

Martin Perez

Matt Andriese

 

Free Agents after 2022:

JD Martinez

Nathan Eovaldi

Enrique Hernandez

Kevin Plawecki

(Price's contract is gone & Sawamura has a team option after 2022)

Edited May 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Santana played for Greenville last night. 3-4 with a bomb.

[Bellhorn04]

In some ways, being 15 down at the deadline would make Bloom's choice easier and more fruitful- in terms of the 2022 and beyond plan.

 

Yes, of course it would. Sucking and rebuilding is as straightforward a situation as you can ask for.

[mvp 78]

Yes, of course it would. Sucking and rebuilding is as straightforward a situation as you can ask for.

 

If they are near .500, they should just sell off guys like Barnes.

[Bellhorn04]

If they are near .500, they should just sell off guys like Barnes.

 

Hey, don't forget E-Rod. Hope for him to get hot so we can cash him in too.

[mvp 78]

Hey, don't forget E-Rod. Hope for him to get hot so we can cash him in too.

 

I don't know. I probably hold a QO on him and let him go to FA if he doesn't pick it up.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know. I probably hold a QO on him and let him go to FA if he doesn't pick it up.

 

Why not convert him to prospects? Unlikely he would take a QO.

[moonslav59]

If they are near .500, they should just sell off guys like Barnes.

 

Agreed.

 

Look what we got, last year, for lesser players than ERod, Barnes & Ottavino. Maybe even Marwin gets us something promising. (We can even pitch in cash to offset some of what is owed and up the return.)

 

Pivetta & Seabold for Workman & Hembree (+cash)

Potts & Rosario for Moreland

Wallace for Pillar

Z Bryant for Osich

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

Look what we got, last year, for lesser players than ERod, Barnes & Ottavino. Maybe even Marwin gets us something promising. (We can even pitch in cash to offset some of what is owed and up the return.)

 

Pivetta & Seabold for Workman & Hembree (+cash)

Potts & Rosario for Moreland

Wallace for Pillar

Z Bryant for Osich

 

 

The way they're going, we can probably trade JD and Bogey as well.

[mvp 78]

The way they're going, we can probably trade JD and Bogey as well.

 

JD would be fine. A Bogey trade would really hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

JD would be fine. A Bogey trade would really hurt.

 

Wouldn't hurt for long.

[mvp 78]

Wouldn't hurt for long.

 

Maybe not for you and your cold cold heart.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe not for you and your cold cold heart.

 

The other advantage of trading all these guys, of course, is that we can tank like crazy the last two months and score another high draft pick.

[Maxbialystock]

Not that it's relevant, but last night I took a peak at some numbers.

 

As of now, the Sox lead MLB in winning percentage and total wins, also runs scored and team OPS. So, yes, Dalbec, Cordero, and one or two others are a drag on the economy, but the Sox offense can hardly be termed depressed. MLB offense may be depressed, but not the Sox.

 

The Sox team ERA is 15th--vs. not long ago when it was 9th. So that's the issue as Detroit made very apparent. Based on what I've seen in the games and what moonslav59 has reported, the bigger problem appears to be in the bullpen. The rotation probably averages about 5 innings per start, maybe less, but none of them regularly bombs and must be pulled early. So that means the bullpen needs to pitch on average 4 innings per game.

 

The above seems to me to make an ironclad case for the Sox to have at least 14 pitchers on their active roster.

[mvp 78]

The other advantage of trading all these guys, of course, is that we can tank like crazy the last two months and score another high draft pick.

 

Looking forward to AUG/SEP starts of Webber, Hall and Brewer.

 

Also, a hot streak from Ottavino could entice another team to take him.

[Bellhorn04]

Not that it's relevant, but last night I took a peak at some numbers.

 

As of now, the Sox lead MLB in winning percentage and total wins, also runs scored and team OPS. So, yes, Dalbec, Cordero, and one or two others are a drag on the economy, but the Sox offense can hardly be termed depressed. MLB offense may be depressed, but not the Sox.

 

The Sox team ERA is 15th--vs. not long ago when it was 9th. So that's the issue as Detroit made very apparent. Based on what I've seen in the games and what moonslav59 has reported, the bigger problem appears to be in the bullpen. The rotation probably averages about 5 innings per start, maybe less, but none of them regularly bombs and must be pulled early. So that means the bullpen needs to pitch on average 4 innings per game.

 

The above seems to me to make an ironclad case for the Sox to have at least 14 pitchers on their active roster.

 

A slightly weird trend is that the Red Sox pitching is so much better on the road.

 

Road 9-4 44 runs allowed 3.39 per game

Home 10-9 96 runs allowed 5.05 per game

[mvp 78]

Not that it's relevant, but last night I took a peak at some numbers.

 

As of now, the Sox lead MLB in winning percentage and total wins, also runs scored and team OPS. So, yes, Dalbec, Cordero, and one or two others are a drag on the economy, but the Sox offense can hardly be termed depressed. MLB offense may be depressed, but not the Sox.

 

The Sox team ERA is 15th--vs. not long ago when it was 9th. So that's the issue as Detroit made very apparent. Based on what I've seen in the games and what moonslav59 has reported, the bigger problem appears to be in the bullpen. The rotation probably averages about 5 innings per start, maybe less, but none of them regularly bombs and must be pulled early. So that means the bullpen needs to pitch on average 4 innings per game.

 

The above seems to me to make an ironclad case for the Sox to have at least 14 pitchers on their active roster.

 

The went two weeks functionally acting with a 13 man pitching staff because Valdez couldn't get off the bench. The 14th guy is not needed.