A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Looking forward to AUG/SEP starts of Webber, Hall and Brewer.

 

Also, a hot streak from Ottavino could entice another team to take him.

 

Absolutely, Ottavino could fetch something.

 

Clean house, baby. Start the real building for 2023.

[moonslav59]

Not that it's relevant, but last night I took a peak at some numbers.

 

As of now, the Sox lead MLB in winning percentage and total wins, also runs scored and team OPS. So, yes, Dalbec, Cordero, and one or two others are a drag on the economy, but the Sox offense can hardly be termed depressed. MLB offense may be depressed, but not the Sox.

 

The Sox team ERA is 15th--vs. not long ago when it was 9th. So that's the issue as Detroit made very apparent. Based on what I've seen in the games and what moonslav59 has reported, the bigger problem appears to be in the bullpen. The rotation probably averages about 5 innings per start, maybe less, but none of them regularly bombs and must be pulled early. So that means the bullpen needs to pitch on average 4 innings per game.

 

The above seems to me to make an ironclad case for the Sox to have at least 14 pitchers on their active roster.

 

Pitchers have been going only 5 innings for years- without the need for 9 pen arms. We also have multiple RP'ers who can go 2 or more innings.

 

We have never come close to overusing any or our RP'ers, and several have barely been used for long stretches.

[Bellhorn04]

Pitchers have been going only 5 innings for years- without the need for 9 pen arms. We also have multiple RP'ers who can go 2 or more innings.

 

We have never come close to overusing any or our RP'ers, and several have barely been used for long stretches.

 

Barnes is on pace for 85 innings. Some might call that overused - abused, even.

[mvp 78]

Barnes is on pace for 85 innings. Some might call that overused - abused, even.

 

Maybe? I think Houck/Brasier/Ottavino can start picking up the slack in the 2nd half. Hell, they just got back last year's closer!

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe? I think Houck/Brasier/Ottavino can start picking up the slack in the 2nd half. Hell, they just got back last year's closer!

 

Let's face it, none of those guys are going to be picking up any slack.

 

Anyway, we'll only have Barnes until July. Cora just has to be careful not to burn him out before we can trade him.

[moonslav59]

Barnes is on pace for 85 innings. Some might call that overused - abused, even.

 

Less than 1 IP per 2 calendar days.

 

16 appearances in 35 days.

 

 

But, yes. he's on pace for over 80 innings. That's considerable more than the 69.2 he got a few years back, but nobody can say we have used him too much due to not having another RP'er available. He's being used, because he's the only guy with a nearly unblemished record, this season.

[moonslav59]

Ottavino is a lot better than many think he is.

 

He has the 6th best K/9 rate in MLB since 2018.

 

Before Barnes became our go to guy, many felt he had the best chance at winning the closer job, or the job would be shared between the two.

 

Ottavino has had some rough outings, but he is fully capable of taking a lot of the slack up.

 

I also think Andriese and Sawamura can regain what they showed earlier in the year.

 

DHern does not seem to be shedding the wildness that has kept him back.

 

Valdez, Brasier and others seem like long shots.

 

Whitlock remains the wild card.

 

Houck is better utilized as starter depth.

[Bellhorn04]

Less than 1 IP per 2 calendar days.

 

16 appearances in 35 days.

 

 

But, yes. he's on pace for over 80 innings. That's considerable more than the 69.2 he got a few years back, but nobody can say we have used him too much due to not having another RP'er available. He's being used, because he's the only guy with a nearly unblemished record, this season.

 

Well, yeah, he's been the only reliable guy in high leverage situations, and Cora has been trying to win games.

 

Whitlock and Andriese have also logged 15.1 innings each, and Ottavino and Sawamura have 13.1 and 13.

 

So 5 guys have been carrying fairly heavy inning loads, especially after the short 2020 season.

[Bellhorn04]

Ottavino is a lot better than many think he is.

 

He has the 6th best K/9 rate in MLB since 2018.

 

Before Barnes became our go to guy, many felt he had the best chance at winning the closer job, or the job would be shared between the two.

 

Ottavino has had some rough outings, but he is fully capable of taking a lot of the slack up.

 

Except he's been walking the ballpark.

[moonslav59]

Well, yeah, he's been the only reliable guy in high leverage situations, and Cora has been trying to win games.

 

Whitlock and Andriese have also logged 15.1 innings each, and Ottavino and Sawamura have 13.1 and 13.

 

So 5 guys have been carrying fairly heavy inning loads, especially after the short 2020 season.

 

I have zero complaints with how Cora has used Barnes and many other RP'ers. My point was about not needing 9 RP'ers. Overusing 5 of them actually strengthens my position on not needing 1 of the remaining 4.

 

I'd expect the starters to begin going a bit deeper into games, but it seems like most of them fall apart in the 6th inning or when they start facing batters for the 3rd time- whichever comes first. That issue may never right itself.

 

Here are the IP per GS, so far:

5.8 ERod (28/5)

5.6 Eovaldi (39/7)

5.1 Pivetta (30.2/6)

4.8 Richards (28.2/6)

4.8 Perez (28.2/6)

4.6 Houck (9.1/2)

 

Team 5.1 IP (as in 5 and 1/10th not 5 1/3.)

 

The pen: 32 games in 35 days:

 

IP/Games

17.0/16 Barnes

15.1/12 Andriese

15.1/8 Whitlock (being "stretched out")

13.1/12 Sawamura

13.0/15 Ottavino

11.1/13 DHern

11.1/13 Taylor (mostly mop-up)

11.1/9 Valdez

8.0/9 Brice (mostly mop-up)

1.0/1 Bazardo & Houck

 

PAs against in High Leverage situations (with OPS Against):

34 Ottavino .603 (more than any RP'er & .603 is not bad)

32 Andriese .746

27 Barnes .113 (not BA- OPS!!!!!)

27 DHern .633

12 Whitlock 1.000 (Where is the guy who bitched about him not getting more IP in pressure parts of the game?)

7 Houck 1.167

4 Taylor 1.000 (4 PAs too many)

3 Sawamura .000 (Maybe he can pick up some "slack?")

3 Valdez .667

3 Brice 1.333 (3 PAs too many)

 

Late & Close

50 Ottavino .514 (closer numbers)

41 Barnes .248 (Koji numbers)

30 Andriese .516 (surprisingly great)

25 DHern 1.090 (should not be used here for a bit, anyway)

11 Whitlock 1.273 (getting to very small sample sizes, now)

10 Taylor .650 (I must have been napping and missed this)

6 Valdez .000

4 Houck 1.000

3 Richards & ERod both .000

3 Sawamura 1.333

(Thank Cora for never using Brice Late & Close.)

 

In closing, any 2 of these 3 guys could have done what all 3 did combined:

 

11.1 IP (13 games) Taylot

11.1 IP (9 games) Valdez

8.0 IP (9 games) Brice

 

That's under 30 IP in 31 games pitched out of our 32 games.

 

1 IP every other day by each of the 2 chosen ones.

 

 

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

One caveat to the early season success: The schedule so far has been softer than Cottonelle. That will change before long.

[moonslav59]

Except he's been walking the ballpark.

 

Yes.

 

He had a BB/9 of 4.0 before joining the Sox, but a 7.8 H/9 and 0.9 HR/9 is pretty decent.

 

His 6.9 H/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in his previous 7 years was better than decent.

 

His 7.6 BB/9, this year is whacky and unacceptable, but I do think he should be able to get that back down to 4 ish, which isn't great, but can be good enough, if he can also keep his hits (6.2 this year) and HRs (0.0 this year) against down.

[dgalehouse]

Absolutely, Ottavino could fetch something.

 

Clean house, baby. Start the real building for 2023.

 

Trade anybody with any value for young prospects. Then trade those prospects for even younger prospects. Let's shoot for the moon in 2030.

[moonslav59]

One caveat to the early season success: The schedule so far has been softer than Cottonelle. That will change before long.

 

Our June to August 1st schedule is brutal. We don't play a single bad team- not even one game.

 

That leads right up to the trade deadline. The good thing is, we end the season a little on the soft side.

 

Our last 17:

@SEA 3

BAL 3

NYM 2

NYY 3

@BAL 3

@WSH 3

[dgalehouse]

Sox sign Brandon Workman to MiLB deal.

 

It's worth a shot. The Cubs might have been a little hasty in giving up on him.

[Bellhorn04]

I have zero complaints with how Cora has used Barnes and many other RP'ers. My point was about not needing 9 RP'ers. Overusing 5 of them actually strengthens my position on not needing 1 of the remaining 4.

 

Out of the remaining 4, the one with the least innings is Brice at 8.

 

If we didn't have him from Day 1, those innings would likely have gone to DHern, Taylor and Valdez, all at 11.1.

 

Yes, they could have absorbed those innings.

 

But for whatever reason, they wanted to have a look at Brice and the other 3 as well.

 

They knew why they wanted 14 pitchers, and that's all that matters.

[Bellhorn04]

Trade anybody with any value for young prospects. Then trade those prospects for even younger prospects. Let's shoot for the moon in 2030.

 

Now you're talking.

[moonslav59]

Out of the remaining 4, the one with the least innings is Brice at 8.

 

If we didn't have him from Day 1, those innings would likely have gone to DHern, Taylor and Valdez, all at 11.1.

 

Yes, they could have absorbed those innings.

 

But for whatever reason, they wanted to have a look at Brice and the other 3 as well.

 

They knew why they wanted 14 pitchers, and that's all that matters.

 

Of course I know that's all that matters, and we can keep playing Vaz at 2B and pinch-hitting Plawecki from time to time. It's a wonderful world!

[Bellhorn04]

Of course I know that's all that matters, and we can keep playing Vaz at 2B and pinch-hitting Plawecki from time to time. It's a wonderful world!

 

In 2019 it was Restgate. This year it's 14gate.

[mvp 78]

In 2019 it was Restgate. This year it's 14gate.

 

2011: Chicken and Beer Gate

2012: Bobby V Gate

2015: Castillo Gate

2016: Price Gate

2019: Rest Gate

2020: Cliff Gate

2021: 14 Gate

[moonslav59]

In 2019 it was Restgate. This year it's 14gate.

 

LOL.

 

I'm really not trying to make a big deal of this choice.

 

I don't think it makes much of a difference. We got by with a 25 man roster for a long time, and teams often went with 13 pitchers, so going to 14 doesn't really change the fact that 12 everyday players stayed the same.

 

Like I have said several times. I don't think stating an opinion that differs from Cora or Bloom means I think they made a mistake. They had their reasons.

 

There is no way for anyone to prove having Chavis or some defensive player on the bench would have made any difference, or that not having a 14th pitcher would have lost us even one game.

 

There's not much to talk about in between games, so this topic seems as good as any.

[moonslav59]

2011: Chicken and Beer Gate

2012: Bobby V Gate

2015: Castillo Gate

2016: Price Gate

2019: Rest Gate

2020: Cliff Gate

2021: 14 Gate

 

2014: Last to First to Last Gate

2017: Astros Cheated Us of a Ring Gate

[moonslav59]

The Four Horsemen...

 

Last 4 weeks:

1.055 JD

1.040 Bogey

1.004 Devers

.958 Verdugo

 

.783 Arroyo

.781 Kike

 

.681 Plawecki

.652 Renfroe

.631 Marwin

 

.570 Dalbec

 

.496 Vaz

 

.378 Cordero

[moonslav59]

ERA last 4 weeks:

 

2.70 Richards

3.86 Pivetta

3.91 ERod

4.18 Perez

6.08 Eovaldi

 

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders

1.224 Trout

1.180 Buxton

1.127 JD

1.104 Acuna

1.068 Bryant

1.063 Winker

1.057 Vlad

1.043 Harper

1.039 Mercedes

1.008 Castellanos

.995 Bogaerts

 

20. Devers .927

26. Verdugo .886

 

72. Beni .772

77. Betts .767

[moonslav59]

22.4 Buxton

22.1 Renfroe

 

Team:

13.7 MN

9.6 BAL

9.5 CWS

7.6 MIA

7.4 COL

6.7 WSH

5.5 BOS

 

[harmony]

Kike Hernandez placed on the IL:

 

[Maxbialystock]

The went two weeks functionally acting with a 13 man pitching staff because Valdez couldn't get off the bench. The 14th guy is not needed.

 

Interesting. However, I would argue that Valdez on the bench is more valuable to the Sox than Dalbec when he is in the lineup. His WAR is -1.1 and he actually makes the Sox worse when he comes to bat or plays 1B. His lousy hitting makes him a rally-killer, and his lousy defense keeps opposing teams rallies alive.

[oldtimer]

Kike Hernandez placed on the IL:

 

 

Chavis has been brought up and that was a reasonable choice based on his versatility. It does make us a little short in the outfield though.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. However, I would argue that Valdez on the bench is more valuable to the Sox than Dalbec when he is in the lineup. His WAR is -1.1 and he actually makes the Sox worse when he comes to bat or plays 1B. His lousy hitting makes him a rally-killer, and his lousy defense keeps opposing teams rallies alive.

 

No, the idea is having Chavis on the bench to PH for, platoon with or maybe win the 1B job from Dalbec.