A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We don't need 5 second basemen.

 

Arroyo and Kike can play SS, too.

 

Marwin is not all that great on defense, but he has looked good, this year on D.

 

There's no way Marwin gets cut this year. Not only is one of Cora's guys, but he's actually been as good with the glove as everybody else was supposed to be. Marwin has made better plays than starters at short, second and first.

 

We love Cora, and of course he knows way more about baseball than fans do... but when he said Kike was the best second baseman in the league, most of us knew that statement was made, in part, as a confidence-booster to the player. Marwin's just better, and will be the defensive replacement in late/close games down the stretch.

[Kimmi]

Meaning, you would put him at leadoff anyway, correct?

 

If Verdugo is really against batting leadoff, I would not put him in that spot. He did really well in the leadoff spot last year, so I'm wondering if it's something he's adamantly opposed to, or if it's just a preference. Verdugo seems like the type of player that would be willing to bat wherever he thinks he could help the team the most.

 

Even if not Verdugo, there are other options for leadoff that are better than Kike or Santana.

[moonslav59]

There's no way Marwin gets cut this year. Not only is one of Cora's guys, but he's actually been as good with the glove as everybody else was supposed to be. Marwin has made better plays than starters at short, second and first.

 

We love Cora, and of course he knows way more about baseball than fans do... but when he said Kike was the best second baseman in the league, most of us knew that statement was made, in part, as a confidence-booster to the player. Marwin's just better, and will be the defensive replacement in late/close games down the stretch.

 

I have never said Marwin will or even should be DFA'd.

 

One point was, he never gets the grief others hitting 150-200 points higher are getting.

 

Another point was about the fact that he should not be 3 PAs away from 8th on the team. He should be more of a late inning defensive replacement who starts when a player needs a break or there is nobody better.

 

Look, I was fine continuing to play JBJ when he was having long stretches of .500 hitting, or worse, but Marwin is no JBJ on defense.Yes, he has player very good D, this year, but he is not known as a great defender, and not enough to warrant getting 450-500 PAs, like he's on pace getting.

 

He's better than Santana, who should be DFA'd any day now and probably Chavis, who might be on his last chance with the Sox.

 

The Arroyo & Kike injuries forced him to play more than maybe he would have, but 450-500 PAs?

 

Sorry. I don't like that.

[notin]

I like the idea of Verdugo leading off, despite his recent slump…

[Kimmi]

Possibly Arroyo will bat in that spot when he returns.

 

Arroyo is a better fit for that spot than Kike or Santana are.

[mvp 78]

Marwin has been so bad the past two years that I think he's playing himself out of the league.

[Kimmi]

there are pundits that still think we won't be in a pennant race...

 

The Sox have the 2nd best record in the AL behind only the Astros (who are crazy good right now), and they are on pace to win 97 or 98 games. If I'm being honest, they have been a tad bit on the fortunate side of this crazy thing called randomness. Even with that being the case, the team is really good. They have avoided long losing streaks and have been pretty darn fun to watch this season.

 

The Sox have some weaknesses, but so do all the other teams in the AL. There is no reason not to expect the Sox to remain in the pennant race for the remainder of the season. Especially if Eovaldi and ERod continue to get the results they deserve, and we get a healthy Sale back.

[Kimmi]

If we are so fortunate as to make the playoffs, I would want Dalbec on the team. When he's hot he can do some damage.

 

Ditto. I love having his power at the bottom of the lineup. As Nick said, he is tolerable (more than tolerable) as a #9 hitter.

[Kimmi]

I like the idea of Verdugo leading off, despite his recent slump…

 

Confirmation bias on my part, but look at what the Sox did in the first inning last night when Kike hit the first pitch for a HR. We'll never have a way of knowing, but that might have been a totally different inning and a totally different game if Cole easily retired the 1st batter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have never said Marwin will or even should be DFA'd.

 

One point was, he never gets the grief others hitting 150-200 points higher are getting.

 

Another point was about the fact that he should not be 3 PAs away from 8th on the team. He should be more of a late inning defensive replacement who starts when a player needs a break or there is nobody better.

 

Look, I was fine continuing to play JBJ when he was having long stretches of .500 hitting, or worse, but Marwin is no JBJ on defense.Yes, he has player very good D, this year, but he is not known as a great defender, and not enough to warrant getting 450-500 PAs, like he's on pace getting.

 

He's better than Santana, who should be DFA'd any day now and probably Chavis, who might be on his last chance with the Sox.

 

The Arroyo & Kike injuries forced him to play more than maybe he would have, but 450-500 PAs?

 

Sorry. I don't like that.

 

I'm not disagreeing with how bad Marwin's bat has been. But his value with the glove may even surpass JBJ's in his prime, because Jackie played on good defensive teams.

 

These 2021 first-place Red Sox have the worst defense in the big leagues. Boston leads the MLB in errors and defensive efficiency, and is a -25 in Total Zone Fielding Runs "Above" Average... only the Phils and O's are worse, at -27 and -29, disrespectfully.

 

Chaim may need help from Theo to swing some moves to shore up the D before the deadline... or this club isn't getting very far in October, if it even gets there.

[Nick]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

 

Not to kick a guy when he's down......from first couple of pages of Moon's thread

[mvp 78]

Not to kick a guy when he's down......from first couple of pages of Moon's thread

 

He deserves it only because he was saying "I've called everything that was happening for the past 5 years with the Sox and I know what will happen in 2021 because of my track record."

[notin]

He deserves it only because he was saying "I've called everything that was happening for the past 5 years with the Sox and I know what will happen in 2021 because of my track record."

 

Was his track record even that good? I seem to recall his thinking the 2018 Sox were not postseason material…

[Kimmi]

I'm not disagreeing with how bad Marwin's bat has been. But his value with the glove may even surpass JBJ's in his prime, because Jackie played on good defensive teams.

 

These 2021 first-place Red Sox have the worst defense in the big leagues. Boston leads the MLB in errors and defensive efficiency, and is a -25 in Total Zone Fielding Runs "Above" Average... only the Phils and O's are worse, at -27 and -29, disrespectfully.

 

Chaim may need help from Theo to swing some moves to shore up the D before the deadline... or this club isn't getting very far in October, if it even gets there.

 

I like having Marwin's defense and versatility on the team.

 

As far as the team defense goes, I don't think it's quite as bad the 'errors' make it look. They look pretty bad according to one metric, +/- runs at -13. However, they are ranked 14th overall in defense according to Fangraphs.

 

Furthermore, they have a DRS of +11 and a UZR/150 of 6.1, good enough for 17th and 4th overall, respectively. The team excels in saving runs with their arms (2nd), they excel in saving runs with double plays (2nd), and are above average in saving runs with their range (9th). They fall short on error runs (23rd).

[mvp 78]

Was his track record even that good? I seem to recall his thinking the 2018 Sox were not postseason material…

 

No, he wasn't as accurate as he suggested.

[Elktonnick]

I think one conclusion that we should derive from the first half of this season is that the manager in baseball is far more important to a team's success than many have wished to admit in previous seasons. Does anyone believe that Ron Roenicke could have had this team produce these results? I don't. And I have been critical of Cora in years past.

[moonslav59]

I'm not disagreeing with how bad Marwin's bat has been. But his value with the glove may even surpass JBJ's in his prime, because Jackie played on good defensive teams.

 

These 2021 first-place Red Sox have the worst defense in the big leagues. Boston leads the MLB in errors and defensive efficiency, and is a -25 in Total Zone Fielding Runs "Above" Average... only the Phils and O's are worse, at -27 and -29, disrespectfully.

 

Chaim may need help from Theo to swing some moves to shore up the D before the deadline... or this club isn't getting very far in October, if it even gets there.

 

We may end up losing the season on defender, but Marwin ain’t winning it for us.

[moonslav59]

I like having Marwin's defense and versatility on the team.

 

As far as the team defense goes, I don't think it's quite as bad the 'errors' make it look. They look pretty bad according to one metric, +/- runs at -13. However, they are ranked 14th overall in defense according to Fangraphs.

 

Furthermore, they have a DRS of +11 and a UZR/150 of 6.1, good enough for 17th and 4th overall, respectively. The team excels in saving runs with their arms (2nd), they excel in saving runs with double plays (2nd), and are above average in saving runs with their range (9th). They fall short on error runs (23rd).

 

I like Marwin on the team, too- as a defensive replacement and spot starter, just not 450-500 PAs, please.

[Nick]

The story behind Garrett Whitlock's new weapon

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/garrett-whitlocks-new-pitch-that-has-helped-save-the-day

 

 

This is a great read. Awhile back, Whitlock and the staff were talking about him working on his slider. I was little upset at the time because he was not being used very much.

 

I'd say he took advantage of some 'time off' working on his craft.

 

He's beginning to see some action in high leverage situations.

 

How can you not like this guy? He cost us almost nothing!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

This is a great read. Awhile back, Whitlock and the staff were talking about him working on his slider. I was little upset at the time because he was not being used very much.

 

I'd say he took advantage of some 'time off' working on his craft.

 

He's beginning to see some action in high leverage situations.

 

How can you not like this guy? He cost us almost nothing!!!!!!

 

He really is the gem of the season.

[Nick]

Now +17 games above .500. Yankees lose tonight.

 

Losing after leading 5-1 should deflate the Royals. Need to go at least 3-1. We got Richards' start out of the way.

 

Get to +18 and playing out the schedule at .500 will get us to 90 wins. Feels like we're getting better.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Upcoming games:

 

KCR Pivetta

KCR Perez

KCR Eovaldi (day game)

@Oak ERod

@Oak Richards

@Oak Pivetta

@LAA Perez

@LAA Eovaldi

@LAA ERod

Off

PHI

PHI

PHI

 

All Star Break (3 days off)

15 vs NYY& TOR before trade deadline

[oldtimer]

Now +17 games above .500. Yankees lose tonight.

 

Losing after leading 5-1 should deflate the Royals. Need to go at least 3-1. We got Richards' start out of the way.

 

Get to +18 and playing out the schedule at .500 will get us to 90 wins. Feels like we're getting better.

 

Playing in the American League East makes it difficult to rack up a lot of wins, but it also makes it difficult for teams behind us to gain ground. It should be interesting.

[moonslav59]

Playing in the American League East makes it difficult to rack up a lot of wins, but it also makes it difficult for teams behind us to gain ground. It should be interesting.

 

Very true.

 

I just hope we can continue beating up on the ALE like we have been doing...

 

6-0 NYY

4-2 TBR

6-4 BAL

5-4 TOR

 

10-2 vs NYY & TBR is fantastic!

 

21-10 vs AL East overall

 

[Bellhorn04]

I think one conclusion that we should derive from the first half of this season is that the manager in baseball is far more important to a team's success than many have wished to admit in previous seasons. Does anyone believe that Ron Roenicke could have had this team produce these results? I don't. And I have been critical of Cora in years past.

 

Absolutely. Picture us swapping managers with the Yankees. Scary thought, isn't it?

[Elktonnick]

Absolutely. Picture us swapping managers with the Yankees. Scary thought, isn't it?

Or even worse, General managers! Who in their right mind would construct a team to play in Yankee Stadium without a left handed power hitter?

[oldtimer]

Or even worse, General managers! Who in their right mind would construct a team to play in Yankee Stadium without a left handed power hitter?

 

these guys show no emotion. More like a bunch of funeral directors.

[Bellhorn04]

these guys show no emotion. More like a bunch of funeral directors.

 

And that's indicative of bad management.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec's OPS by month:

 

April .619

May .672

June .759

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's OPS by month:

 

April .619

May .672

June .759

 

Steady growth