A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

It would be over 1.000 if not for pitcher batting lead off.

 

Our highest OPS is .932, so that's a little doubtful.

[dgalehouse]

Okay , here we go. We now have what is known as a " croo-shull " series. Sweep the Yanks again ?

[mvp 78]

No question. But Kimmi was talking about the opposing pitcher getting a boost from an easy first out.

 

Maybe the pitcher is letting their guard down after such an easy out instead?

 

6D Chess by Cora.

[Nick]

Our highest OPS is .932, so that's a little doubtful.

 

Alright you win.....I made intelligent assumptions and came up with this

 

.217 (AVG) .261 (OBP) .301 (SLG) .563 (OPS)-Lead off batter in 1st inning

 

.317 (AVG) .371 (OBP) .534 (SLG) .905 (OPS)-Non lead off batter in 1st inning

 

You are correct....but the disparity is alarming.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay , here we go. We now have what is known as a " croo-shull " series. Sweep the Yanks again ?

 

Not feeling as confident myself. But I never feel very confident, just because it's baseball.

[Bellhorn04]

Alright you win.....I made intelligent assumptions and came up with this

 

.217 (AVG) .261 (OBP) .301 (SLG) .563 (OPS)-Lead off batter in 1st inning

 

.317 (AVG) .371 (OBP) .534 (SLG) .905 (OPS)-Non lead off batter in 1st inning

 

You are correct....but the disparity is alarming.

 

Not much consolation, but all of a sudden Verdugo's OPS is only 110 points higher than Kike's (.796 to .686).

[mvp 78]

Not much consolation, but all of a sudden Verdugo's OPS is only 110 points higher than Kike's (.796 to .686).

 

Verdugo is a mild disappointment this year. I was hoping for him to take a step forward, but that hasn't happened. 845 OPS vs 796 OPS isn't the end of the world, but I was hoping for him to improve.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Ryan Brasier is back in Boston with the Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Ryan Brasier is back in Boston with the Red Sox.

 

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox injury updates:

* Sale on track for 20-pitch live BP tomorrow... will be another live BP next week.

* Brasier in town for a checkup.

[Nick]

Pedey averaged 62 games per year during his team friendly contract. We paid him $13.75M per year. $221,774 per game played. 2002 at bats, almost $55K per bat.

 

He won gold glove in 2014. All of his major awards came before he signed his big contract.

Edited June 26, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

6 games back at the end of August (not July) when the team was ravaged by injuries. Like I say, there was some grumbling, but I don't think it was a huge deal.

 

No, it wasn't a big deal, but just the thought of it was too much for some.

[moonslav59]

Moving from CF to LF is not a huge deal, the Sox have made moves like this before. It’s not uncommon to develop a player at a premium position and move him off when needed.

 

I’d be willing to bet Duran plays LF not CF, let’s call it a gentleman’s bet.

 

I don’t envision Dalbec as a platoon, I think you have to give him at bats to help him progress. It’s the same thing with Duran, you’re not bringing him up mid season to get half reps, he’s going to play LF full time.

 

However, if Dalbec continues his struggles and the Sox decide they need to make moves to compete I think you may be right on Kike, and he’s going to have to make his at bats up somewhere with Duran out in left.

 

Yes, players move from CF to LF all the time, but Duran is just learning the OF, and if he is to be called up very soon, they'd be playing him where they expect him to play already.

 

Why LF? He'll be replacing Kike not Verdugo.

 

If we dump Santana to call him up, Kike would play 1B orplatoon with Dalbec there and Marwin at 2B, until Arroyo returns.

 

Of, we just platoon Marwin with Dalbec and play Kike at 2B. (I don't see Marwin as a better hitter than Dalbec, even vs RHPs.)

 

[moonslav59]

You are speaking nonsense, Moon.

 

Did you see the "if" in front of the sentence?

 

It's not nonsense to think we could be 6-8 GB by the end of July.

 

I seriously doubt it happens, but not nonsensical.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo is a mild disappointment this year. I was hoping for him to take a step forward, but that hasn't happened. 845 OPS vs 796 OPS isn't the end of the world, but I was hoping for him to improve.

 

He's had way more than his fair share of huge hits, so I'm giving him a pass.

[oldtimer]

Yes, players move from CF to LF all the time, but Duran is just learning the OF, and if he is to be called up very soon, they'd be playing him where they expect him to play already.

 

Why LF? He'll be replacing Kike not Verdugo.

 

If we dump Santana to call him up, Kike would play 1B orplatoon with Dalbec there and Marwin at 2B, until Arroyo returns.

 

Of, we just platoon Marwin with Dalbec and play Kike at 2B. (I don't see Marwin as a better hitter than Dalbec, even vs RHPs.)

 

 

I have been recommending replacing our weakest field players and pitchers with promising prospects for some time now. Duran for Santana has looked like a no brainer. Dalbec still has potential so I have advocated a left handed hitter to platoon with him although Marwin is not an upgrade. they were saying Dalbec was choking up and that got him out of the slump. I thought instead that he stopped taking pitches down the middle and got more aggressive. Whatever, he is back in a slump. I would move Andriese as soon as Houck or Ort is available. Maybe our promising prospects don't give us a lift but possibly they help us win another game or two a month and that is worth a try.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox have too many hitters in the lineup who are easy outs, don't put together competitive at bats, and this has to change. Dalbec and Chavis are part of the problem; Gonzalez is a problem too, but he is a backup and so is easier to tolerate. In contrast, we have higher expectations for Dalbec and Chavis, hoping they can develop into starting players, but their hit tool is so poor that they will likely never be regular major league starters. Fortunately, the Red Sox can fix such problems easily enough--promoting Duran will help and trading for a starting 1b like C.Santana will be a huge upgrade for the offense.

 

If the Red Sox are playing baseball in October it will be important to purge the roster of marginal hit tools in the starting lineup--and thus Chavis and Dalbec have no future with the Red Sox as starters. I can live with Chavis as a backup, since he can play a few more positions than Dalbec. Dalbec should be part of the C.Santana trade, since the Royals can play him and without needing to win in the short term.

Edited June 26, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Larry Cook]

The Red Sox have too many hitters in the lineup who are easy outs, don't put together competitive at bats, and this has to change. Dalbec and Chavis are part of the problem; Gonzalez is a problem too, but he is a backup and so is easier to tolerate. In contrast, we have higher expectations for Dalbec and Chavis, hoping they can develop into starting players, but their hit tool is so poor that they will likely never be regular major league starters. Fortunately, the Red Sox can fix such problems easily enough--promoting Duran will help and trading for a starting 1b like C.Santana will be a huge upgrade for the offense.

 

If the Red Sox are playing baseball in October it will be important to purge the roster of marginal hit tools in the starting lineup--and thus Chavis and Dalbec have no future with the Red Sox as starters. I can live with Chavis as a backup, since he can play a few more positions than Dalbec. Dalbec should be part of the C.Santana trade, since the Royals can play him and without needing to win in the short term.

 

We are not a good team defensively either.

[illinoisredsox]

The Red Sox have too many hitters in the lineup who are easy outs, don't put together competitive at bats, and this has to change. Dalbec and Chavis are part of the problem; Gonzalez is a problem too, but he is a backup and so is easier to tolerate. In contrast, we have higher expectations for Dalbec and Chavis, hoping they can develop into starting players, but their hit tool is so poor that they will likely never be regular major league starters. Fortunately, the Red Sox can fix such problems easily enough--promoting Duran will help and trading for a starting 1b like C.Santana will be a huge upgrade for the offense.

 

If the Red Sox are playing baseball in October it will be important to purge the roster of marginal hit tools in the starting lineup--and thus Chavis and Dalbec have no future with the Red Sox as starters. I can live with Chavis as a backup, since he can play a few more positions than Dalbec. Dalbec should be part of the C.Santana trade, since the Royals can play him and without needing to win in the short term.

 

Chavis has been in the minors most of the year; what expectations can we/they have for him?

 

Dalbec, in 1/2 a season (81 career games) has the following slash line:

 

.224/.291/.465/.756 with 17 homers

 

Many years ago, a team brought up a kid. He played in 145 games over his first full year (plus a September call up), putting up the following slash line:

 

.197/.324/.357/.683 with 18 homers. He was also no great shakes in the field and struck out a ton (151 times) which was a lot for that era.

 

His second full season, he lead the NL in homers. He retired 18 years later, having slugged 548 home runs; Mike Schmidt was elected to the Hall of Fame 5 years after that, having played his way into conversation as the best 3rd baseman ever.

 

Now Dalbec is not going to be Mike Schmidt, but my point is you never know when the light is going to turn on for some players such that they will have productive careers. 1/2 a year is way too quick for that judgement and none of us are qualified to even attempt to make it. We may like or dislike what we see in certain players, but there's a reason that none of us is working for a Major League Baseball team.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

but there's a reason that none of us is working for a Major League Baseball team.

Because we have better things to do?

 

Many years ago, a team brought up a kid. He played in 145 games over his first full year (plus a September call up), putting up the following slash line: .197/.324/.357/.683 with 18 homers. He was also no great shakes in the field and struck out a ton (151 times) which was a lot for that era.

This is why I think the Red Sox could include Dalbec in a trade for C.Santana: someone will believe they can fix him or that he will come around with more experience. Stranger things have happened; Dalbec doesn't have zero trade value. Some GM will dream on his power potential.

 

The Red Sox have a good team this year, they could win the AL East, they could make some noise in the playoffs, they could even win a championship. As such, the Red Sox need to address weaknesses and try to fix them rather than ignore weaknesses with the hope that the hitter might turn into a quality player one or two years from now. Many years ago the Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez to increase their chances of winning a championship. It worked. Similarly, I don't believe Dalbec is the kind of player you hold on to when you have an opportunity to upgrade and increase your chances of winning this year.

Edited June 26, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Illinois is dead on accurate.

[oldtimer]

We are not a good team defensively either.

 

The Sox are playing sloppy baseball with defense, base running and some poor pitching. The Yankees suffer from some of the same maladies. The Rays play a cleaner brand of ball and have used that to good effect. We can do something about our weak hitters but the defensive lapses, baserunning errors and poor pitching will be more difficult to fix. Cora expects more so maybe he can have an impact on those areas.

[Bellhorn04]

Pedey averaged 62 games per year during his team friendly contract. We paid him $13.75M per year. $221,774 per game played. 2002 at bats, almost $55K per bat.

 

He won gold glove in 2014. All of his major awards came before he signed his big contract.

 

Career-ending injuries are a bitch.

[Bellhorn04]

Did you see the "if" in front of the sentence?

 

It's not nonsense to think we could be 6-8 GB by the end of July.

 

I seriously doubt it happens, but not nonsensical.

 

When you talked about trading Barnes even if we're in the hunt, now that was bordering on nonsensical.

[Nick]

Grading Boston Red Sox’s winter additions: the good (Garrett Whitlock, Hunter Renfroe), the bad (Kiké Hernández) and the ugly (Danny Santana) | Chris Cotillo (MLB Notebook)

 

Finally.....imagine the Rays paying 2 year $14M for former bench player. Not a very good FA signing. If he is what he is then we had no business signing him for $14M. This was Cora signing.

[Bellhorn04]

Grading Boston Red Sox’s winter additions: the good (Garrett Whitlock, Hunter Renfroe), the bad (Kiké Hernández) and the ugly (Danny Santana) | Chris Cotillo (MLB Notebook)

 

Finally.....imagine the Rays paying 2 year $14M for former bench player. Not a very good FA signing. If he is what he is then we had no business signing him for $14M. This was Cora signing.

 

Somehow I doubt that Chaim Bloom went to Alex Cora asking him who to sign.

 

Kike was virtually full time for the Dodgers his last 3 seasons with them. Let's not distort the truth for the sake of making a point.

[Nick]

Somehow I doubt that Chaim Bloom went to Alex Cora asking him who to sign.

 

Kike was virtually full time for the Dodgers his last 3 seasons with them. Let's not distort the truth for the sake of making a point.

 

I didn't realize the guy played that much. #6, #6 amd #8 in total at bats for Dodgers during 2018-2020.

 

My point still stands, $14M was an overpay based on what I see. Arroyo and Marwin are better defensive second baseman.

 

I rather watch Duran struggle than watching Kike play CF.

 

Maybe he's going through the adjustment to AL pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't realize the guy played that much. #6, #6 amd #8 in total at bats for Dodgers during 2018-2020.

 

My point still stands, $14M was an overpay based on what I see. Arroyo and Marwin are better defensive second baseman.

 

I rather watch Duran struggle than watching Kike play CF.

 

Maybe he's going through the adjustment to AL pitchers.

 

It was a mild overpay at most.

 

Kike has averaged about 2.5 bWAR per 150 games over his career. He's at 0.9 bWAR right now this year.

 

People are really starting to expect a lot for 7 mill a year, I guess...

[mvp 78]

It was a mild overpay at most.

 

Kike has averaged about 2.5 bWAR per 150 games over his career. He's at 0.9 bWAR right now this year.

 

People are really starting to expect a lot for 7 mill a year, I guess...

 

If he wasn’t batting 1st, nobody would care.

[Bellhorn04]

If he wasn’t batting 1st, nobody would care.

 

Except he's not batting 1st any more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It was a mild overpay at most.

 

Kike has averaged about 2.5 bWAR per 150 games over his career. He's at 0.9 bWAR right now this year.

 

People are really starting to expect a lot for 7 mill a year, I guess...

 

Maybe for some fans, it's not as much the actual number Kike signed for, but that of all Bloom's recruits, Kike got paid the most...(for two years)