A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

This just in from Cherry-Picked Stat Samples R Us

 

In his last 26 games Hunter Renfroe is hitting 333/413/578 for an OPS of 991. (OK, his BAbip is a little high at 382)

 

At the moment, I have more confidence in Renfroe at the plate than I do with most of our other hitters.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem with the Kike contract. I liked the signing at the time and I still like it.

 

Plus, he's not even a quarter through the 2 year contract.

 

He's 10 points below his 2020 OPS.

He's 37 points below his 2019-2020 OPS.

He's 54 points below his last 5 year OPS.

60 points below his career .730 OPS.

 

That's 1-2 big games away from any "norm."

 

[moonslav59]

At the moment, I have more confidence in Renfroe at the plate than I do with most of our other hitters.

 

Not many have suggested we move him into the top 5.

 

1. Verdugo

2. Renfroe

3. JD

4. Bogey

5. Devers

 

I know line-up changes mean little to you, but still...

[Kimmi]

Looks like Bloom did just fine getting Wong in the Mookie trade too.

 

Obviously it's only been one game, but Wong looked very good in his first major league game.

 

I read that after each 1/2 inning that he caught, he went straight to Varitek for feedback. I love that.

[Kimmi]

I like Dalbec, but he's on a bit of a short leash now. They've handled his struggles as best they can. He has to put up better numbers starting pretty soon.

 

I am a Dalbec fan and am one who hopes he does not get sent down this season. IMO, he's fine hitting in the 8 or 9 hole. The biggest problem with our lineup is the black hole that we've had in the leadoff spot. Fix that and Dalbec's struggles don't look as bad.

[Kimmi]

I have not gone to look, but it seems like anytime our 1 slot hitter gets on base with no outs during a game- not just inning one, we score- and usually a crooked number.

 

Without going through all of the box scores, I don't know how to filter 1st inning runs scored when the leadoff hitter reaches base versus when he doesn't. However, in general, the chances of scoring runs and the number of runs scored in an inning are significantly greater when the 1st batter of the inning reaches base. The importance of retiring the 1st batter of the inning, which should be common sense, cannot be overstated.

[Kimmi]

Not many have suggested we move him into the top 5.

 

1. Verdugo

2. Renfroe

3. JD

4. Bogey

5. Devers

 

I know line-up changes mean little to you, but still...

 

My big thing is getting more production out of the lead off spot. In that regard, I think the line up change would be fairly significant. That would entail having Renfroe in the top 5.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Not many have suggested we move him into the top 5.

 

1. Verdugo

2. Renfroe

3. JD

4. Bogey

5. Devers

 

I know line-up changes mean little to you, but still...

 

According to what I heard during last night's game, Dugo has told Cora that he likes batting second(feels comfortable there) and would prefer not batting lead-off.

[moonslav59]

According to what I heard during last night's game, Dugo has told Cora that he likes batting second(feels comfortable there) and would prefer not batting lead-off.

 

That never concerns me.

[Bellhorn04]

That never concerns me.

 

Meaning, you would put him at leadoff anyway, correct?

[moonslav59]

Meaning, you would put him at leadoff anyway, correct?

 

Only if I thought it was best for the team, and I’d sit down and explain that to him first.

 

I’m not sure hitting him first is best, and my biggest wish is for Bogey up second and JD or Renfroe 3rd, so that leaves Devers (best up 4 or 5) and Verdugo or Renfroe up first, since JD first seems real bad to me.

[oldtimer]

Without going through all of the box scores, I don't know how to filter 1st inning runs scored when the leadoff hitter reaches base versus when he doesn't. However, in general, the chances of scoring runs and the number of runs scored in an inning are significantly greater when the 1st batter of the inning reaches base. The importance of retiring the 1st batter of the inning, which should be common sense, cannot be overstated.

 

Possibly Arroyo will bat in that spot when he returns.

[Nick]

Sox are now 16 games over .500 for first time. This was their fourth attempt to get there.

 

Is it possible that G Cole will go through an adjustment period due to rule change? $36M per year gamble by the Yankees?

[moonslav59]

Sox are now 16 games over .500 for first time. This was their fourth attempt to get there.

 

Is it possible that G Cole will go through an adjustment period due to rule change? $36M per year gamble by the Yankees?

 

+16.

 

WOW!

 

What a great season this has been.

[Nick]

+16.

 

WOW!

 

What a great season this has been.

 

there are pundits that still think we won't be in a pennant race...

[moonslav59]

there are pundits that still think we won't be in a pennant race...

 

All it takes is two losses in a row, and half this board goes bananas.

[moonslav59]

Updated OPS

 

The big for may now be the big 3.

.948 Bogey- What a solid bat he has been.

.926 Devers forevers- lock him up, long-term

.902 JD- hoping he can heat it up and stay over .900.

 

On the way up/on the way down.

.777 Verdugo- Lots of clutch hits but sliding downwards (.726 since 4/28)

.774 Renfroe- On the way up- 1.011 since May 26th.

.756 Arroyo- Was on he way up before the injury.

 

In need of improvement

.690 Kike- Not too far from his career and recent "norm."

.684 Vaz- Would be nice to see him get back to near .800.

.668 Plawecki- On the IL

.664 Dalbec- Was over .700, then this...

.661 Chavis- This could be his last look-see,

 

Scary bad

.559 Marwin- 9th on the team in PAs (almost as much as Dalbec).

.501 Cordero- Still on the farm.

.485 Santana- And that's after a 2 for 4 day.

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

Updated OPS

 

The big for may now be the big 3.

.948 Bogey- What a solid bat he has been.

.926 Devers forevers- lock him up, long-term

.902 JD- hoping he can heat it up and stay over .900.

 

On the way up/on the way down.

.777 Verdugo- Lots of clutch hits but sliding downwards (.726 since 4/28)

.774 Renfroe- On the way up- 1.011 since May 26th.

.756 Arroyo- Was on he way up before the injury.

 

In need of improvement

.690 Kike- Not too far from his career and recent "norm."

.684 Vaz- Would be nice to see him get back to near .800.

.668 Plawecki- On the IL

.664 Dalbec- Was over .700, then this...

.661 Chavis- This could be his last look-see,

 

Scary bad

.559 Marwin- 9th on the team in PAs (almost as much as Dalbec).

.501 Cordero- Still on the farm.

.485 Santana- And that's after a 2 for 4 day.

 

 

 

 

 

Dalbec is very tolerable as a #9 hitter if Kike and Arroyo hold their own at CF and 2B. That leads to pretty solid 1-8. My guess is Sox had in mind Cordero and Kike would do the trick.

 

Two players I was most interested in this year were Dalbec and Whitlock. One has not met my expectation and other has surpassed it. It hurts every time Dalbec takes a strike for strike, and chases balls outside the strike zone for third strike.

 

We now have pretty solid relief group in Barnes, Ottavino, Taylor, Whitlock, Sawamura and Darwinzon. It'd be nice to see Brasier come back and have Ort get a promotion as some point.

 

I have no idea what the team will do with Richards. Looks like he's going to make adjustments on the fly.

 

Marwin it tolerable because of his defense and his ability to play 2B/SS reasonably well.

[moonslav59]

 

Marwin it tolerable because of his defense and his ability to play 2B/SS reasonably well.

 

We don't need 5 second basemen.

 

Arroyo and Kike can play SS, too.

 

Marwin is not all that great on defense, but he has looked good, this year on D.

[Nick]

We don't need 5 second basemen.

 

Arroyo and Kike can play SS, too.

 

Marwin is not all that great on defense, but he has looked good, this year on D.

 

I say Santana goes before Marwin...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

For future consideration. Ohtani will be a FA before the 2024 season. With the money the Angels have already tied up with Trout, will they be able to afford him? Of course, the SOX are going to have to come up with some big bucks to keep Devers. Should be interesting to see who ends up with Ohtani.

[Larry Cook]

We currently have 6 questionable players on the roster:

 

Andriese

Rios

Santana

Marwin

Wong

Chavis

 

 

We have three shaky players:

 

Richards

Dalbec

Hernandez

 

We have some players coming off the dl:

 

Sale

Arroyo

Pawlieki

Brazier

 

Interesting decisions ahead for hang’em Chaim!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, Ohtani has a chance of being the only player ever in an all-star game to pitch and play the outfield.

[moonslav59]

Two players I was most interested in this year were Dalbec and Whitlock. One has not met my expectation and other has surpassed it. It hurts every time Dalbec takes a strike for strike, and chases balls outside the strike zone for third strike.

.

 

I felt like this was going to be a bridge season, where we'd be afforded the opportunity to find out a lot or even enough on several players, so we could decide who stays and who goes and maybe a couple players who still need more deciding on going into next season.

 

Dalbec- the obvious one. We all know 2020's sample size was too small to get all gah-gah over, but enough to think he deserved a very long look-see. The Sox being in the heat of a playoff run have run into a problem giving Dalbec a long enough look to really know, if he's a keeper. He's had a pretty long look, but the leash is short. It's my feeling next year should be even tougher to give him a long look, if he is still struggling. I'd like to know- one way or the other- this year, but I realize we may not be in a position to keep playing him as much as we have been.

 

Chavis- I felt this would surely be the season we HAD TO FIND OUT, if he was a keeper or not. With he and Dalbec being a bit redundant, I certainly felt this year was the year to decide which one goes (or moves to a new position, if they both did well).

 

Arroyo, Arauz, Munoz- We had to find out, if we had an in-system solution to a position we have had trouble filling since Pedey. Arroyo's 2 IL stints have hampered his playing time, but he seems like a keeper. He may not be great enough to block Downs, but I think we can afford to wait it out on Downs without going for a bridge player.

 

Devers- Can he stick at 3B.

 

Cordero- Can he stay healthy? If so, can he bring production to all the promise and 5 toll skill set? He did get a pretty long look, but not really enough to decide anything. Now, the issue is, if we keep playing well, can we afford to give him another long(er) look, this year or next.

 

Renfroe- Question answered.

 

Verdugo- Question answered.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec is very tolerable as a #9 hitter if Kike and Arroyo hold their own at CF and 2B. That leads to pretty solid 1-8. My guess is Sox had in mind Cordero and Kike would do the trick.

 

If we are so fortunate as to make the playoffs, I would want Dalbec on the team. When he's hot he can do some damage.

[notin]

Btw, Ohtani has a chance of being the only player ever in an all-star game to pitch and play the outfield.

 

.. which is made more interesting because he has only played 6 innings in the OF all season...

[Nick]

Yankees desperately need to shake up their roster New York Post Headline.

 

We haven't seen that in Boston papers. Just here....lol...

[moonslav59]

If we are so fortunate as to make the playoffs, I would want Dalbec on the team. When he's hot he can do some damage.

 

There is also a good chance he's made some meaningful adjustments by then and is not viewed as an offensive liability.

[moonslav59]

Yankees desperately need to shake up their roster New York Post Headline.

 

We haven't seen that in Boston papers. Just here....lol...

 

Kike & Chavis for Torres.

[Nick]

The story behind Garrett Whitlock's new weapon

 

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/garrett-whitlocks-new-pitch-that-has-helped-save-the-day

Edited June 28, 2021 by Nick