A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

I think one conclusion that we should derive from the first half of this season is that the manager in baseball is far more important to a team's success than many have wished to admit in previous seasons. Does anyone believe that Ron Roenicke could have had this team produce these results? I don't. And I have been critical of Cora in years past.

 

I 100% agree with this in terms of the off field aspects of the game. The intangibles, if you will. In terms of in game decisions, it is my opinion that managers don't make that much of a difference.

 

I strongly feel that the biggest difference maker between last year and this year is Cora.

[Kimmi]

This is a great read. Awhile back, Whitlock and the staff were talking about him working on his slider. I was little upset at the time because he was not being used very much.

 

I'd say he took advantage of some 'time off' working on his craft.

 

He's beginning to see some action in high leverage situations.

 

How can you not like this guy? He cost us almost nothing!!!!!!

 

And for someone so young, he does not seem to get rattled.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec's OPS by month:

 

April .619

May .672

June .759

 

WRC+ by month:

 

April 68

May 77

June 98

 

K% by month:

 

April 32.9

May 39.2

June 40.5

 

BB% by month

 

April 6.6

May 5.4

June 3.8

 

He's getting better, but that's not saying a whole heck of a lot.

[Kimmi]

Dalbec's OPS by month:

 

April .619

May .672

June .759

 

He's another one that, IMO, we just leave alone and let him do his thing. He's fine hitting in the #9 hole.

[mvp 78]

He's another one that, IMO, we just leave alone and let him do his thing. He's fine hitting in the #9 hole.

 

Having your 1b hit in the 9th hole isn't ideal. 1b is the second highest OPS on average behind DH. It's basically the Sox punting a strong offensive position.

[moonslav59]

WRC+ by month:

 

April 68

May 77

June 98

 

K% by month:

 

April 32.9

May 39.2

June 40.5

 

BB% by month

 

April 6.6

May 5.4

June 3.8

 

He's getting better, but that's not saying a whole heck of a lot.

 

This also shows how K rates do not always influence production.

[mvp 78]

This also shows how K rates do not always influence production.

 

It shows a concern for his OBP though. His slugging is heavily impacted by his HR/FB ratio. Maybe that can continue during the summer months, but it's not a good outlook for Sept/Oct.

[notin]

Having your 1b hit in the 9th hole isn't ideal. 1b is the second highest OPS on average behind DH. It's basically the Sox punting a strong offensive position.

 

So… Moreland? Are you on board yet?

[mvp 78]

So… Moreland? Are you on board yet?

 

I was on board with Moreland last offseason. He's at the very least better than Santana.

[Bellhorn04]

Having your 1b hit in the 9th hole isn't ideal. 1b is the second highest OPS on average behind DH. It's basically the Sox punting a strong offensive position.

 

But again, he's making minimum wage, so he sure helps on the budget.

 

Some of those first basemen hitting better than him are also making serious coin.

[Bellhorn04]

So… Moreland? Are you on board yet?

 

Moreland isn't hitting any better than Dalbec.

 

The two of them would make a nice platton, perhaps, but I'm not sure the A's are in sell mode, either...

[mvp 78]

Moreland isn't hitting any better than Dalbec.

 

The two of them would make a nice platton, perhaps, but I'm not sure the A's are in sell mode, either...

 

He's only played 6 games at 1b for them this year. I bet you could get him if you offered an offset at DH.

[Bellhorn04]

He's only played 6 games at 1b for them this year. I bet you could get him if you offered an offset at DH.

 

Moreland OPS by month:

 

April .752

May .635

June .525

 

Can't get enthused.

[Maxbialystock]

I 100% agree with this in terms of the off field aspects of the game. The intangibles, if you will. In terms of in game decisions, it is my opinion that managers don't make that much of a difference.

 

I strongly feel that the biggest difference maker between last year and this year is Cora.

 

Agree on Cora--of course. Everyone agrees he is a difference maker.

 

But I think you give him too little credit on his decision-making, both during games and in terms of who plays on which days. Last night he stayed with Richards, who delivered 4.1 innings of shut out ball after giving up that final dinger by the Royals to give them the 5-0 lead with 1 out in the 2d inning.

 

But Friday against the Yankees he pulled Perez after 3.2 innings when he had only given up 3 runs. In that game he decided he was going all in for the win.

 

Last night, down 5-0, he stuck with Richards both to save his bullpen (worked hard recently) and to give Garrett an opportunity to show he can still pitch.

 

He got two wins because both times he used his bullpen just the right amount.

 

Oh, and he pulled Pivetta when he had a no-hitter going, another good decision that secured a win in a game in which Pivetta was very unlikely to be able to go 9. In fact, Pivetta, was smiling when he came off the mound.

 

You have cited experts who say that run differential is a vital stat in determining the overall talent/worth of a team, which means the Houston Astros are absolute world-beaters, talent-wise, because theirs is an amazing +140. Next best are the Dodgers at +104.

 

Meanwhile, the Sox are at a meager +43. Yet they are just 1/2 game behind the Astros. The experts say that just shows the Sox are lucky, but I'm thinking just maybe Cora knows what he is doing. Or he is what Napoleon used to say he preferred--a lucky general rather than a smart one.

 

I can say all this now because of course the proof of the pudding is the postseason. As you have said, the big run differential teams tend to do better then.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree on Cora--of course. Everyone agrees he is a difference maker.

 

But I think you give him too little credit on his decision-making, both during games and in terms of who plays on which days. Last night he stayed with Richards, who delivered 4.1 innings of shut out ball after giving up that final dinger by the Royals to give them the 5-0 lead with 1 out in the 2d inning.

 

But Friday against the Yankees he pulled Perez after 3.2 innings when he had only given up 3 runs. In that game he decided he was going all in for the win.

 

Last night, down 5-0, he stuck with Richards both to save his bullpen (worked hard recently) and to give Garrett an opportunity to show he can still pitch.

 

He got two wins because both times he used his bullpen just the right amount.

 

Oh, and he pulled Pivetta when he had a no-hitter going, another good decision that secured a win in a game in which Pivetta was very unlikely to be able to go 9. In fact, Pivetta, was smiling when he came off the mound.

 

I agree. The in-game pitching changes are pretty important for various reasons.

 

Cora has excellent judgment and feel for the game and his players.

[notin]

Moreland OPS by month:

 

April .752

May .635

June .525

 

Can't get enthused.

 

 

It’s Mitchie Two-Bags!!

[notin]

He's only played 6 games at 1b for them this year. I bet you could get him if you offered an offset at DH.

 

Chavis it is!!

[Bellhorn04]

It’s Mitchie Two-Bags!!

 

I'm afraid he might be Mitchie Too-Old at this stage.

[Bellhorn04]

I was a little surprised we didn't sign Moreland again. But Bloom decided to go with Dalbec, and Bloom is The Man.

[iortiz]

My reality check an suggestions...

 

Offense.

 

Our 2-7 (Verdugo-Martinez-Xander-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez) can hit, and actually pretty well, very often and with pop most of them.

 

What would I do to improve it even more? Let Arroyo leadoff and call up Duran ASASP. That would give you Arroyo-Verdugo-Martinez-XAnder-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-8-Duran.

 

Who would I put in the 8th slot? Bobby Dalbec in a regular basis. Yes, Dalbec. Let him play while he keeps learning and growing.

 

1. Arroyo

2. Verdugo

3. Martinez

4. Xander

5. Devers

6. Renfroe

7. Vazquez

8. Dalbec

9. Duran

 

That would be a nastier lineup than already is.

 

Keep Marwin and Santana if you want and/or call up Cordero as well but only for Defense-PR-PH-and situational occasions.

 

Rotation.

 

We have a bunch of No. 4-5 SPs who have performed most of the times like 1-3. Don't forget that. Arguably Eduardo is the only solid No.3 pedigree pitcher given his track record but other than him, everyone else as I said are at best No 4-5 who have performed over their speciations starting the season.

 

They won't pitch like 1-3 all the times (they actually have most of times) but they will keep us in games hoping the offense give us a win like last night.

 

They all have concerns starting with Richards, but let's not forget that a month ago or so he was actually performing like a solid No 1-2. Maybe as several have suggested he was cheating with the sticky stuff thing. Who knows, give him time. I'm confident he will settle down again and will be a solid No. 3-4 in the rotation. Last 3 innings in yesterday's game after allowing 5 runs were very encouraging. Calm down a bit people.

 

Also, Sale while is still a long shot, I do not discard him at all. All reports; from media, Cora and Sale himself have said over and over again he is in the right direction and very close join the team. Have to be seen though.

 

 

BP.

 

This is arguably our major strength when you look at the Barnes-Ottavino-Taylor-Whitlock-Sawamura combo. Also you have Rios who quietly has performed well. In the wings you have Bazardo, Houk and Valdez as well. Hernandez is wild but can be useful. Andriese has to go. The later has nothing left in that tank and to be honest we do not need him anymore considering the staff.

 

...and not the least, we have a couple of intangibles who are not reflected in stats: Cora and Bloom. IMHO without them this team wouldn't have been in this position at this point of the year.

 

We also have to see whether Bloom trade for a SP, BP arm and/or a bat. Knowing him I will not be surprised, if he is already working on that and exploring all kind of possibilities.

 

As I said in April, this team will be a very nice surprise. This year is also the beginning and the base to create the core we will use in order to build our team around moving forward.

 

Geez I'm very excited about our team moving forward, aren't you all?

Edited June 29, 2021 by iortiz

[notin]

I'm afraid he might be Mitchie Too-Old at this stage.

 

He’s 35 and only signed for 3 more months…

[Bellhorn04]

He’s 35 and only signed for 3 more months…

 

His numbers are what look old. He's been useless for 2 months.

[notin]

His numbers are what look old. He's been useless for 2 months.

 

Maybe he’s pining for Fenway?

[Bellhorn04]

My reality check an suggestions...

 

Offense.

 

Our 2-7 (Verdugo-Martinez-Xander-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez) can hit, and actually pretty well, very often and with pop most of them.

 

What would I do to improve it even more? Let Arroyo leadoff and call up Duran ASASP. That would give you Arroyo-Verdugo-Martinez-XAnder-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-8-Duran.

 

Who would I put in the 8th slot? Bobby Dalbec in a regular basis. Yes, Dalbec. Let him play while he keeps learning and growing.

 

1. Arroyo

2. Verdugo

3. Martinez

4. Xander

5. Devers

6. Renfroe

7. Vazquez

8. Dalbec

9. Duran

 

That would be a nastier lineup than already is.

 

What have you done with Kike?

 

Arroyo has been having a lot of trouble staying healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe he’s pining for Fenway?

 

Sure. And maybe he's toast.

[notin]

Sure. And maybe he's toast.

 

Sadly he’s still probably the best of the potentially available rental options. Unless you like CJ Cron and his Coors-inflated numbers this year (.618 road OPS)…

[Maxbialystock]

My reality check an suggestions...

 

Offense.

 

Our 2-7 (Verdugo-Martinez-Xander-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez) can hit, and actually pretty well, very often and with pop most of them.

 

What would I do to improve it even more? Let Arroyo leadoff and call up Duran ASASP. That would give you Arroyo-Verdugo-Martinez-XAnder-Devers-Renfroe-Vazquez-8-Duran.

 

Who would I put in the 8th slot? Bobby Dalbec in a regular basis. Yes, Dalbec. Let him play while he keeps learning and growing.

 

1. Arroyo

2. Verdugo

3. Martinez

4. Xander

5. Devers

6. Renfroe

7. Vazquez

8. Dalbec

9. Duran

 

That would be a nastier lineup than already is.

 

Keep Marwin and Santana if you want and/or call up Cordero as well but only for Defense-PR-PH-and situational occasions.

 

Rotation.

 

We have a bunch of No. 4-5 SPs who have performed most of the times like 1-3. Don't forget that. Arguably Eduardo is the only solid No.3 pedigree pitcher given his track record but other than him, everyone else as I said are at best No 4-5 who have performed over their speciations starting the season.

 

They won't pitch like 1-3 all the times (they actually have most of times) but they will keep us in games hoping the offense give us a win like last night.

 

They all have concerns starting with Richards, but let's not forget that a month ago or so he was actually performing like a solid No 1-2. Maybe as several have suggested he was cheating with the sticky stuff thing. Who knows, give him time. I'm confident he will settle down again and will be a solid No. 3-4 in the rotation. Last 3 innings in yesterday's game after allowing 5 runs were very encouraging. Calm down a bit people.

 

Also, Sale while is still a long shot, I do not discard him at all. All reports; from media, Cora and Sale himself have said over and over again he is in the right direction and very close join the team. Have to be seen though.

 

 

BP.

 

This is arguably our major strength when you look at the Barnes-Ottavino-Taylor-Whitlock-Sawamura combo. Also you have Rios who quietly has performed well. In the wings you have Bazardo, Houk and Valdez as well. Hernandez is wild but can be useful. Andriese has to go. The later has nothing left in that tank and to be honest we do not need him anymore considering the staff.

 

...and not the least, we have a couple of intangibles who are not reflected in stats: Cora and Bloom. IMHO without them this team wouldn't have been in this position at this point of the year.

 

We also have to see whether Bloom trade for a SP, BP arm and/or a bat. Knowing him I will not be surprised, if he is already working on that and exploring all kind of possibilities.

 

As I said in April, this team will be a very nice surprise. This year is also the beginning and the base to create the core we will use in order to build our team around moving forward.

 

Geez I'm very excited about our team moving forward, aren't you all?

 

Meh. I think Bloom and Cora both would counter with, "slow down. This team is a work in progress." Yes, the hitting is good and could be better with Arroyo and Duran, but for now I like Hernandez leading off and playing CF. Plus we don't know Duran at Worcester will hit that well at Boston. These days that gap is larger than ever.

 

Rotation has been way better than expected, but 1-3 it has not been. Team ERA is ranked 15th in MLB, mostly because of the rotation. I given Cora and his pitching coach a ton of credit for how they have managed/coached the pitching staff. However, what should make all of us nervous is the Commish's dictum banning foreign substances on the ball. It clearly has affected Richards, and I think Barnes as well. Probably Perez. Probably not Eovaldi, Pivetta, and ERod who who just maybe weren't "using" much anyway.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

Sadly he’s still probably the best of the potentially available rental options. Unless you like CJ Cron and his Coors-inflated numbers this year (.618 road OPS)…

 

Jesus Aguilar.

[notin]

Jesus Aguilar.

 

 

Not a rental, but certainly an option.

 

BTV gives him roughly the same trade value (4.5) as Groome (4.3). Do you pull that trigger?

[Nick]

You add Duran because you're in the midst of pennant race.

 

Speed, speed, speed, left handed bat......can't do any worse than Santana. He's still locked in for six years beginning 2022.