A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

I'm not taking it personally.

 

This team is doing great but couple of spots can get better.

 

As an example, as good as bullpen has been, it can be extended with addition of Houck. I don't think the management is ready to give up a spot in starting rotation except to returning Sale. Houck would be temporary solution unless Richards or some other starter falls off the cliff.

 

My only point about Duran is I think he can help, not as every day player necessarily. He's carrying a hot bat albeit its in AAA. He doesn't have to play CF you know. He can always play left field. He gives us another left handed bat not named Marwin and Santana.

 

He costs us NOTHING. Sox retain 6 more years of team control on Duran.

 

Not personal....what's the trigger point? Wait another 60 days so he can start to fail in AAA and say I told you so he's not ready?

I see eye to eye this. Well said Nick.

 

Maybe Nick and I are so greedy for wanting this team to be even greater offensively lol

[notin]

No one is disputing that either, nothin.

 

We all are just giving our opinions. That's all.

 

Said that, sure, of course Bloom has a reason and a plan, but considering that our leadoff issue has been a legit problem all season long and Santana/Gonzalez/Kike haven't performed well offensively, some of us have wondered why Bloom do not call Duran and at least try to solve these issues. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Duran will likely make this team even better offensively regardless his roll. That's the whole point Nick and I are making. No big deal I guess.

 

The leadoff problem is on Cora. Why he keeps insisting on sub-.300 OBP hitters in the role is beyond me. As he already has better options (starting with Verdugo) I’m not sure he sees Duran as the solution. He might, but it wouldn’t surprise if it also changed nothing atop the lineup.

 

I see two possibilities about why Duran is still in Worcester. 1) Someone is not happy with his defense, and 2) there’s no real path to playing time if everyone is healthy. I don’t think they want him in a part time role, even as a strong side of a platoon.

 

In fact, it’s possible the guy keeping him down is the resurgent Renfroe. We all assumed Renfroe was acquired to be a weak side platoon with Benintendi, and then to be a weak side platoon with Cordero. But he’s established himself as a full time starter. If everyone is healthy, this fills the OF (with Verdugo and Kike) and leaves no real path to playing time for Duran…

[mvp 78]

If he splashes he will play everyday.

 

Will the Red Sox be playing in Worcester?

[Bellhorn04]

In fact, it’s possible the guy keeping him down is the resurgent Renfroe. We all assumed Renfroe was acquired to be a weak side platoon with Benintendi, and then to be a weak side platoon with Cordero. But he’s established himself as a full time starter. If everyone is healthy, this fills the OF (with Verdugo and Kike) and leaves no real path to playing time for Duran…

 

Exactly.

[iortiz]

Right. It's just not the time.

 

If they call up Duran right now and he gets off to a rough start, it would not be good for the team or for him. In no time you'd have the stories "Did the Red Sox make a big mistake...?"

IMO there's never a good time. He can splash or become a bust.

 

If he splashes, this team will get better, if he doesn't, don't big deal, they could send him down again, he can work harder, adjust and come back eventually at some point in the future. I do not see a big deal.

 

OTOH If he is that fragile mentally, then he is not a mlb caliber player. He will have up/downs, just like everybody else. Also, he is no that young. Time is ticking.

Edited June 30, 2021 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Will the Red Sox be playing in Worcester?

 

Not sure why this question.

 

The correct question should be will he perform better than Santana/Marwin/Kike and even Arroyo?

 

You have literally nothing to lose if you call him up.

Edited June 30, 2021 by iortiz

[notin]

IMO there's never a good time. He can splash or become a bust.

 

If he splashes, this team will get better, if he doesn't, don't big deal, they could send him down again, he can work harder, adjust and come back eventually at some point in the future. I do not see a big deal.

 

OTOH If he is that fragile mentally, then he is not a mlb caliber player. He will have up/downs, just like everybody else. Also, he is no that young. Time is ticking.

 

I do agree with that point and think it often gets overlooked.

 

I don’t think this is a case of the Sox rushing the 24yo Duran. But I do suspect either his defense or the lack of a clear role are bigger factors. Especially once Arroyo returns…

[notin]

He has been nothing but a utility player who has played a lot in LA because they had tons of injuries & up/downs, and he was the primary piece to address those issues since he can play several positions.

 

He started 104 games in 2018 and 100 games in 2019. I can see an argument or him being a starter regardless of his usage.

 

But the more important factor is - he’s a starter now, also regardless of his previous usage. Whether or not another team used him in a different capacity isn’t a reason to promote Duran…

[iortiz]

The leadoff problem is on Cora. Why he keeps insisting on sub-.300 OBP hitters in the role is beyond me. As he already has better options (starting with Verdugo) I’m not sure he sees Duran as the solution. He might, but it wouldn’t surprise if it also changed nothing atop the lineup.

 

I see two possibilities about why Duran is still in Worcester. 1) Someone is not happy with his defense, and 2) there’s no real path to playing time if everyone is healthy. I don’t think they want him in a part time role, even as a strong side of a platoon.

 

In fact, it’s possible the guy keeping him down is the resurgent Renfroe. We all assumed Renfroe was acquired to be a weak side platoon with Benintendi, and then to be a weak side platoon with Cordero. But he’s established himself as a full time starter. If everyone is healthy, this fills the OF (with Verdugo and Kike) and leaves no real path to playing time for Duran…

 

The calling Duran thing could definitely improve the team offensively given the underperforming of Santana/Gonzalez at very least, and even if Kike/Dalbec underperform again and/or Arroyo can't stay healthy.

 

Plus if Duran splashes, he actually can take the leadoff job as well and kill two birds with one bullet. As Nick said there's nothing to lose and I agree.

[mvp 78]

Not sure why this question.

 

The correct question should be will he perform better than Santana/Marwin/Kike and even Arroyo?

 

You have literally nothing to lose if you call him up.

 

Duran Home OPS 1.196

Duran Away OPS .775

 

Will he hit better than Arroyo or Kiké? Hard to say. He doesn't replace Marwin or Santana because he's an OF only profile.

 

The better question is would Cordero be a better bet than Duran right now?

[mvp 78]

I do agree with that point and think it often gets overlooked.

 

I don’t think this is a case of the Sox rushing the 24yo Duran. But I do suspect either his defense or the lack of a clear role are bigger factors. Especially once Arroyo returns…

 

Home OPS 1.196

Away OPS .775

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure why this question.

 

The correct question should be will he perform better than Santana/Marwin/Kike and even Arroyo?

 

You have literally nothing to lose if you call him up.

 

I heartily disagree that there's nothing to lose. What if he stinks for 5 games and we lose 3 or 4 of them? And then what do you do with him?

 

The leash would be short. We're in a pennant race and every game matters.

[mvp 78]

I heartily disagree that there's nothing to lose. What if he stinks for 5 games and we lose 3 or 4 of them? And then what do you do with him?

 

The leash would be short. We're in a pennant race and every game matters.

 

If you're calling him up, he's here for good.

[moonslav59]

Exactly!

 

Duran could make this team even better. What's wrong with that?

 

Duran will likely be better than Santana and Marwin. In my book, he will perform better than Kike and probably Arroyo —or at least create more competitiveness.

 

As you said, if he hurts the team he could be sent down again and to keep working. No big deal.

 

Wilson COULD make this team better.

 

Cordero COULD make this team better.

 

Ort and others COULD make this team better.

 

Part of the equation is keeping all your options open. I'm on board with giving up on Santana, but not Marwin.

 

That leaves one slot, and I'm not sure that slot should go to Duran, or if he's even ready for the bigs.

 

It's not just about how well someone's stat line looks. It's about holes in their game, and how much time they need fixing them.

 

Plus, we are not even sure Duran or anyone else we call up will do better.

 

I was sure Santana would do better than Cordero way back. Ooops.

[iortiz]

He started 104 games in 2018 and 100 games in 2019. I can see an argument or him being a starter regardless of his usage.

 

But the more important factor is - he’s a starter now, also regardless of his previous usage. Whether or not another team used him in a different capacity isn’t a reason to promote Duran…

 

Exactly. A

 

If they both play well, both will play, but IMO Duran has way more upside.

 

Kike has had up and downs this season. He is a 238 hitter right now who has improved a lot recently. Hopefully he keeps going like this but being honestly I have no idea what we will get form him moving forward.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. A

 

If they both play well, both will play, but IMO Duran has way more upside.

 

Kike has had up and downs this season. He is a 238 hitter right now who has improved a lot recently. Hopefully he keeps going like this but being honestly I have no idea what we will get form him moving forward.

 

Jarren Duran is a 234 hitter away from Polar Park............

[Maxbialystock]

One more time, the case for bringing up Duran ASAP is weak because--

 

He's an outfielder, and the Sox outfield of Verdugo, Hernandez, and Renfroe is playing well both at bat and in the field.

 

The Sox have the 2d best record in MLB, the 2d most runs scored, and the 3d best team OPS. They are flourishing without Duran, who has yet to face MLB pitching. Why mess with success?

[moonslav59]

Exactly. A

 

If they both play well, both will play, but IMO Duran has way more upside.

 

Kike has had up and downs this season. He is a 238 hitter right now who has improved a lot recently. Hopefully he keeps going like this but being honestly I have no idea what we will get form him moving forward.

 

I think we have more of an idea on what Kike will give us than Duran.

 

Sure, almost every top prospect has high ceilings and more promise than the team's current under-performers, but we've seen over and over that knee jerk reactions to struggling players is not always a simple choice of replacing them.

 

We stuck with Renfroe, who did poorly for almost as long as Dalbec, Kike and Cordero.

 

Josh Taylor stunk up the place for quite a long time. I could go on and on with examples from past seasons and from other teams.

 

There are two major factors involved with calling up Duran, IMO:

 

1) Is he ML ready? (He seems to be offensively, but maybe he still needs to work on something. On defense, it looks like he may need more time.)

 

2) Do we have a position open, where he can play nearly every game? (We do not want to call him up to sit on the bench even half the time)

 

Dalbec is back to looking okay, so Kike ain't playing 1B, except for maybe a game here and there.

Kike is one of our hottest hitters and has shown he can hit .730-.780 while playing good D in CF and 2B.

Arroyo was on fire, before the injury, so 2B is not really a FT slot for Kike, either.

 

If we call Duran up, and play him 80-90% in CF, it means Dalbec, Kike or Arroyo sit. I'm not sure now is the time to mess with the chemistry all 3 of these guys have contributed to over the past few weeks.

 

Now is not the time to roll the dice. I won't even get into what might happen to Duran's confidence and development, if he's called up and fails miserably in the hot Boston spotlight during a playoff run.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

One more time, the case for bringing up Duran ASAP is weak because--

 

He's an outfielder, and the Sox outfield of Verdugo, Hernandez, and Renfroe is playing well both at bat and in the field.

 

The Sox have the 2d best record in MLB, the 2d most runs scored, and the 3d best team OPS. They are flourishing without Duran, who has yet to face MLB pitching. Why mess with success?

 

Exactly.

 

I really think they do not think he is ML ready, or they don't want to cut Santana loose, just yet (to create a roster slot).

 

The perfect time to call him up was when Arroyo went on the IL. Move Kike to 2B, and play Duran in CF for 10 days or however long it takes Arroyo to return.

 

The did not. I am confident they have their reasons.

[mvp 78]

One more time, the case for bringing up Duran ASAP is weak because--

 

He's an outfielder, and the Sox outfield of Verdugo, Hernandez, and Renfroe is playing well both at bat and in the field.

 

The Sox have the 2d best record in MLB, the 2d most runs scored, and the 3d best team OPS. They are flourishing without Duran, who has yet to face MLB pitching. Why mess with success?

 

It would move Kiké off CF, his best position. It would move Verdugo to CF, yuck. It would put Duran in LF and his defense is not ready for primetime.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we have more of an idea on what Kike will give us than Duran.

 

Sure, almost every top prospect has high ceilings and more promise than the team's current under-performers, but we've seen over and over that knee jerk reactions to struggling players is not always a simple choice of replacing them.

 

We stuck with Renfroe, who did poorly for almost as long as Dalbec, Kike and Cordero.

 

Josh Taylor stunk up the place for quite a long time. I could go on and on with examples from past seasons and from other teams.

 

There are two major factors involved with calling up Duran, IMO:

 

1) Is he ML ready? (He seems to be offensively, but maybe he still needs to work on something. On defense, it looks like he may need more time.)

 

2) Do we have a position open, where he can play nearly every game? (We do not want to call him up to sit on the bench even half the time)

 

Dalbec is back to looking okay, so Kike ain't playing 1B, except for maybe a game here and there.

Kike is one of our hottest hitters and has shown he can hit .730-.780 while playing good D in CF and 2B.

Arroyo was on fire, before the injury, so 2B is not really a FT slot for Kike, either.

 

If we call Duran up, and play him 80-90% in CF, it means Dalbec, Kike or Arroyo sit. I'm not sure now is the time to mess with the chemistry all 3 of these guys have contributed to over the past few weeks.

 

Now is not the time to roll the dice. I won't even get into what might happen to Duran's confidence and development, if he's called up and fails miserably in the hot Boston spotlight during a playoff run.

 

 

Perfect post.

[notin]

Exactly.

 

I really think they do not think he is ML ready, or they don't want to cut Santana loose, just yet (to create a roster slot).

 

The perfect time to call him up was when Arroyo went on the IL. Move Kike to 2B, and play Duran in CF for 10 days or however long it takes Arroyo to return.

 

The did not. I am confident they have their reasons.

 

Didn’t want to DFA anyone just yet?”

[notin]

I think we have more of an idea on what Kike will give us than Duran.

 

Sure, almost every top prospect has high ceilings and more promise than the team's current under-performers, but we've seen over and over that knee jerk reactions to struggling players is not always a simple choice of replacing them.

 

We stuck with Renfroe, who did poorly for almost as long as Dalbec, Kike and Cordero.

 

Josh Taylor stunk up the place for quite a long time. I could go on and on with examples from past seasons and from other teams.

 

There are two major factors involved with calling up Duran, IMO:

 

1) Is he ML ready? (He seems to be offensively, but maybe he still needs to work on something. On defense, it looks like he may need more time.)

 

2) Do we have a position open, where he can play nearly every game? (We do not want to call him up to sit on the bench even half the time)

 

Dalbec is back to looking okay, so Kike ain't playing 1B, except for maybe a game here and there.

Kike is one of our hottest hitters and has shown he can hit .730-.780 while playing good D in CF and 2B.

Arroyo was on fire, before the injury, so 2B is not really a FT slot for Kike, either.

 

If we call Duran up, and play him 80-90% in CF, it means Dalbec, Kike or Arroyo sit. I'm not sure now is the time to mess with the chemistry all 3 of these guys have contributed to over the past few weeks.

 

Now is not the time to roll the dice. I won't even get into what might happen to Duran's confidence and development, if he's called up and fails miserably in the hot Boston spotlight during a playoff run.

 

 

 

 

 

Wander Franco has a higher ceiling than Willy Adames had. But which of those two is crushing right now and which one is struggling?

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Boston’s 9 active relievers have a combined 2.91 ERA for the Red Sox this season. Eight of them have an ERA of 3.04 or lower:

 

Whitlock – 1.42

Workman – 2.00

Sawamura – 2.56

Barnes – 2.65

Rios – 2.70

Ottavino – 2.73

Hernandez – 2.84

Taylor – 3.04

 

@BillKoch25

Periodic reminder the Yankees are paying Adam Ottavino $850K to pitch for the #RedSox this season.

[moonslav59]

Didn’t want to DFA anyone just yet?”

 

If Santana has not been DFA'd by now, there must be a reason.

 

His numbers look awful, but maybe they still see the hope most of us have given up on, or maybe they just don't see Duran as being ready or Wilson as being a sure step up.

 

I know, I know, anyone can be a "step up" from what Santana has given us so far, but what a player has done in his last 4-6 weeks is not a good indicator of what is to come.

 

That being said, I'd have no issues DFA'ing Santana. I'm just not sold on Duran being the clear pick to replace im.

[moonslav59]

Wander Franco has a higher ceiling than Willy Adames had. But which of those two is crushing right now and which one is struggling?

 

Is this a trick question?

 

I'd guess, neither one.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Cordero is getting in some work at first base:

https://nesn.com/2021/06/red-sox-testing-out-franchy-cordero-at-first-base-in-worcester/

 

This makes sense. Cordero doesn't have a clear opening in the OF now or in the future with Duran, Verdugo, and Renfroe looking like keepers. First base has been an area of weakness for the Red Sox this year, and it is not clear that Dalbec will hit enough to be a full-time player.

[Nick]

Giving Franchy Cordero time at first base makes all the sense in the world

 

 

I sure hope we don't ruin the team chemistry if this works out....because you know Cora, he doesn't want to move his players around...

Edited June 30, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

Is this a trick question?

 

I'd guess, neither one.

 

Not impressed with Adames’ .858 OPS since the trade?

 

Franco had a great debut, but only has. .322 OPS since. In that same timeframe, Adames has a 1.200 OPS…

[moonslav59]

Not impressed with Adames’ .858 OPS since the trade?

 

Franco had a great debut, but only has. .322 OPS since. In that same timeframe, Adames has a 1.200 OPS…

 

I wasn't aware Adames was doing so well.

 

Good example of how these types of moves often do not work out well.