A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[oldtimer]

Could it be that maybe we are wrong about thinking smaller sample sizes should be used to make long-lasting choices?

 

It's easy to look back and say, we gave Cordero, Dalbec and Santana (funny how nobody mentions Marwin) too much time.

 

But, what about Renfroe's poor April? Had Bloom & Cora gave up on him, we'd never have known what we missed.

 

Hell, there was a poster talking about sending Devers down in April (not knowing there was no "down" as AAA started in May).

 

 

Nearly half the season has passed. You will still be talking small sample size in August. We are 1/2 game out and have a chance.

[moonslav59]

Nearly half the season has passed. You will still be talking small sample size in August. We are 1/2 game out and have a chance.

 

Santana has not played half the season. His OPS has been below .791 for 15 games.

 

Cordero did not come close to 1/2 year.

 

Dalbec has started 58 games or 36% of 162 games.

 

And some of us were calling for major changes after 2-3 weeks or a month.

[Larry Cook]

Santana has not played half the season. His OPS has been below .791 for 15 games.

 

Cordero did not come close to 1/2 year.

 

Dalbec has started 58 games or 36% of 162 games.

 

And some of us were calling for major changes after 2-3 weeks or a month.

 

After the first 3 games of this season, many were in full melt down mode!

[Nick]

His OPS after 2 games was 1.333.

 

It was still over 1.000 after 6 games and at .791 after 8 games.

 

Near total freefall in his last 15 games.

 

Yes, 15 games to determine all we need to know about him, right?

 

Give me a break Moon, now you're just being sanctimonious.

 

You boohoo 15 games free fall but you counter by emphasizing his 6 game sample of 1.000 OPS and .791 after 8 games?

 

Where is his power? It's hard to display speed if you're not on base. We also have another guy that can play multiple positions.

 

It's one thing if we have no other option but we do.

 

Can you tell me in a pennant chase, how many games no longer constitute a small sample?

 

You seem to have all the answers.

Edited June 27, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It's hard to forget about Richards, but lets forgive a bad start or two...

 

Recent starts by the other 4:

 

IP H ER BB K

 

Eovaldi

7.2 7 1 0 6

Forget 6/20 & 6/9

6.2 3 0 1 4

Previous 3: 16.2 17 3 3 18 (1.62 ERA)

 

Perez

last 2 starts: 8.2 9 1 4 6 (1.04 ERA)

Forget 6/8 & 6/13

previous 11 starts: 58.1 54 20 18 52 (3.09 ERA)

 

Pivetta

6.2 0 0 2 8 last start

Forget 6/12 & 6/18

first 12 starts: 64.1 52 27 31 74 (3.78 ERA)

 

ERod (Maybe we can lump him with Richards.)

2 of his last 4 starts:

6.0 7 3 1 7

5.1 5 3 1 7

 

 

[moonslav59]

Give me a break Moon, now you're just being sanctimonious.

 

You boohoo 15 games free fall but you counter by emphasizing his 6 game sample of 1.000 OPS and .791 after 8 games?

 

Where is his power? It's hard to display speed if you're not on base. We also have another guy that can play multiple positions.

 

It's one thing if we have no other option but we do.

 

Can you tell me in a pennant chase, how many games no longer constitute a small sample?

 

You seem to have all the answers.

 

I'm for cutting Santana, yesterday, but I'm not sugar coating the fact that his sample size is smaller than Renfroe's was before he kicked into gear.

 

I was for demoting Dalbec before he heated up a little.

 

I was for demoting Cordero.

 

I used the word "we" when I bashed ourselves over small sample sizes.

 

How is that sanctimonious?

 

[moonslav59]

After the first 3 games of this season, many were in full melt down mode!

 

Case in point.

 

[moonslav59]

 

Can you tell me in a pennant chase, how many games no longer constitute a small sample?

 

 

Depends on the player's age, career numbers and maybe recent 300-1,300 PAs.

 

I'd normally think 450-650 PAs may not even be enough.

 

I realize being in a pennant chase magnifies the slumps, but it doesn't change how much time a player needs to snap out of a funk.

 

The JBJ example is the extreme, but he got the chance to show sticking with him pays off. How many players never got that chance? Of course, his defense played into that choice, but the slump vs sample size aspect of his career still prove a point.

 

Just this year, Renfroe was at .485 at the end of April!

 

Those 19 games are more than Santana's slump. He was still at .604 after 94 PAs... which is way more PAs than Cordero got before we all were begging for his demotion.

 

I can find more examples. Many more.

 

I remember I wanted Santana called up to replace Cordero.

 

YIKES!

 

Santana has sucked while Cordero got hot in AAA. We'll never know, if we gave up too soon on Franchy's first look.

[Bellhorn04]

Santana has sucked while Cordero got hot in AAA. We'll never know, if we gave up too soon on Franchy's first look.

 

Yes, along with the infinity of other hypothetical turn back time things we'll never know.

 

Santana hasn't even played the last 3 games BTW.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks like Bloom did just fine getting Wong in the Mookie trade too.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Bloom did just fine getting Wong in the Mookie trade too.

 

One game, but so far so good

[moonslav59]

Yes, along with the infinity of other hypothetical turn back time things we'll never know.

 

Santana hasn't even played the last 3 games BTW.

 

It's certainly possible that after 19 games of futility, Santana gets DFA'd, picked up by someone else, and then starts hitting like 2018, again.

 

I'd still like to see him DFA'd, when Arroyo returns, if not sooner, so I am not above the fray when it comes to reacting and possibly over-reacting to short or shorter sample size- based decision/opinion making.

[notin]

Looks like Bloom did just fine getting Wong in the Mookie trade too.

 

.667 OPS and a completely unsustainable BABIP of 1.000?

[Bellhorn04]

.667 OPS and a completely unsustainable BABIP of 1.000?

 

He looked good behind the plate though. He looks like a major league catcher.

 

In Bloom I Trust.

[moonslav59]

Should we celebrate Dalbec's K-less night at the plate?

 

It's only happened 6 times since May first.

 

BTW, here is Dalbec's career line doubled to give him 634 PAs:

 

.206 34 98

.287 OBP

.460 SLG

.747 OPS

 

After showing signs of heating up and making an adjustment on holding the bat, Dalbec is now oh for his last 14.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec made some nice plays at first last night, at least.

 

He's still struggling, no question.

[moonslav59]

Should we celebrate Dalbec's K-less night at the plate?

 

It's only happened 6 times since May first.

 

BTW, here is Dalbec's career line doubled to give him 634 PAs:

 

.206 34 98

.287 OBP

.460 SLG

.747 OPS

 

After showing signs of heating up and making an adjustment on holding the bat, Dalbec is now oh for his last 14.

 

If you give him 650 PAs, he's at about 35 HRs and 100 RBI out of the gate.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec made some nice plays at first last night, at least.

 

He's still struggling, no question.

 

His defense has puzzled me more than his extended slump.

[mvp 78]

Should we celebrate Dalbec's K-less night at the plate?

 

It's only happened 6 times since May first.

 

BTW, here is Dalbec's career line doubled to give him 634 PAs:

 

.206 34 98

.287 OBP

.460 SLG

.747 OPS

 

After showing signs of heating up and making an adjustment on holding the bat, Dalbec is now oh for his last 14.

 

His career line is average 1b. His current year is a nightmare. 2020 was forever ago for that guy’s stat line.

[notin]

He looked good behind the plate though. He looks like a major league catcher.

 

In Bloom I Trust.

 

And my criticism of him might have some flaws.

 

Interesting he looked good behind the plate. That was actually the knock against him in the LA system. Although it is quite possible that being in the same organization at the same time as Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz and Diego Cartaya might have impacted their decisions to bounce him around the diamond, meaning either they figured catcher was covered or that he simply did not look as good as any of those others...

[moonslav59]

His career line is average 1b. His current year is a nightmare. 2020 was forever ago for that guy’s stat line.

 

Why do you and others feel so strongly that whatever you have done most recently is what you are doomed to repeat forever, when so much evidence goes against that theory or belief?

 

I’m not trying to bust anybody’s balls, as I do it, too at times,

[moonslav59]

His career line is average 1b. His current year is a nightmare. 2020 was forever ago for that guy’s stat line.

 

One could argue that any player who starts his career looking average over his first 81 games could be a keeper or even end up being great.

 

Certainly, his career numbers point towards giving a longer look- his 2021 numbers not so much.

[Bellhorn04]

Why do you and others feel so strongly that whatever you have done most recently is what you are doomed to repeat forever, when so much evidence goes against that theory or belief?

 

I’m not trying to bust anybody’s balls, as I do it, too at times,

 

I like Dalbec, but he's on a bit of a short leash now. They've handled his struggles as best they can. He has to put up better numbers starting pretty soon.

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox do have an .818 OPS in the first inning, however.

 

Interestingly, the Sox also lead baseball in runs scored in the 1st inning. I think that's a testament to how good our 2-5 guys are.

 

I still believe that the opposing pitcher has to get a little boost by being able to retire our leadoff guy so easily. Or perhaps a better way of saying that is, imagine the added pressure that we could put on the opposing pitcher if we had a leadoff guy who got on base in front of our 2-5 in the first inning.

[Kimmi]

Not feeling as confident myself. But I never feel very confident, just because it's baseball.

 

I was not feeling as confident going into this series either. I was thinking we would win 1 out of 3. I am very happy that we've already won the series. Of course, a sweep would be even better.

 

I felt very confident going into the series against KC. I was thinking we would sweep them, and at the very least, I was sure we would win that series.

 

That's baseball for you.

[Kimmi]

Not much consolation, but all of a sudden Verdugo's OPS is only 110 points higher than Kike's (.796 to .686).

 

Verdugo has not had a very good month of June.

[moonslav59]

I like Dalbec, but he's on a bit of a short leash now. They've handled his struggles as best they can. He has to put up better numbers starting pretty soon.

 

I'm with you on the "short leash" position. Hell, I wanted him demoted to work on his swing a few weeks ago.

 

Being in a tight playoff race changes the dynamic, but not really the idea that he may need time to get into a groove. (Maybe there is no groove to get into, and Dalbec is no better than Middy was.)

 

Some of us have mentioned a platoon, but since Dalbec is on the short end of the platoon, he really would not get an opportunity to work through his issues by playing nearly everyday. While this might be the best solution to the team's needs (use Marwin, Kike or trade for a Moreland type at 1B), it just prolongs and cloudies the decision on Dalbec's future.

 

Do we really want to start all over with him, next year? Can we afford to watch him struggle for 200+ PAs, next year, too- only to end up realizing he's not a keeper?

 

I'm not advocating tanking the 2021 season just to find out what Dalbec (and others, by the way) can or cannot do at the ML level, and in some ways, winning so much has made that aspect of the season very problematic for Bloom and Cora.

 

In theory, we may call up Duran, soon, and let Kike or Marwin play 1B vs most RHPs. That may ultimately be the best choice, for now.

 

I do NOT see Casas as a 2021 solution. It's either Dalbec-Kike-Marwin or a low key, rental trade for someone like Moreland.

 

Dalbec's poor defense has not helped his case, either.

[moonslav59]

Interestingly, the Sox also lead baseball in runs scored in the 1st inning. I think that's a testament to how good our 2-5 guys are.

 

I still believe that the opposing pitcher has to get a little boost by being able to retire our leadoff guy so easily. Or perhaps a better way of saying that is, imagine the added pressure that we could put on the opposing pitcher if we had a leadoff guy who got on base in front of our 2-5 in the first inning.

 

I have not gone to look, but it seems like anytime our 1 slot hitter gets on base with no outs during a game- not just inning one, we score- and usually a crooked number.

[Kimmi]

If he wasn’t batting 1st, nobody would care.

 

I have no problem with the Kike contract. I liked the signing at the time and I still like it.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo has not had a very good month of June.

 

Nor the team (.718 June OPS)

 

Our pitchers are 2 for 6 with a dbl! (.833 OPS)

 

June OPS

.955 Bogey (3rd in June PAs)

.842 Arroyo (9th due to injury)

.828 Devers (2nd)

.822 Renfroe (4th)

.722 Verdugo (1st)

.703 Dalbec (8th)

.689 JD (5th)

.680 Vaz (7th)

.624 Kike (6th)

.564 Plawecki (12th)

.560 Marwin(10th, at least he's not 6th or 7th, like he was before)

.397 Chavis (13PAs in June)

.295 Santana (11th)