A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Congratulations to Adam Ottavino, who reached 10 years of MLB service time today. In 495 career outings, he has recorded a 3.49 ERA with 10.46 strikeouts per 9.0 innings.

 

Last 27 games: 1.78 ERA, .151 opponent AVG, 1.11 WHIP, 10.66 SO/9.0 IP

[moonslav59]

Chance of him completely losing is just as good.

 

He was struggling with his command prior to the MLB crackdown. I don't know how he will get out of this mess. It was telling that he was most vocal about the enforcement of the rule.

 

He's already "lost it" and certainly may never get it back, but it's not obvious he won't regain and pitch well and earn that 2022 option.

 

As or now, you are right, it looks like a solid no. Perez's option looks a little better - money wise and possibility of taking it wise.

[moonslav59]

Moon would tell you that because we are $5.5M under the cap, we can afford to acquire someone with a tax payroll of $15M on July 31st (pro-rated for 1/3 of the season). Question is how many prospects are we willing to give up and how good are they?

 

I would prefer the team exhaust all in house options before looking elsewhere.

 

Let's hope they don't wait until we're 5 games down to make these moves.

 

I don't think we go big splash or go over the tax line. I could be wrong.

 

The big splash is Sale. The little splashes are a few from: Brasier, Houck, Bazardo, Valdez, Seabold, Duran and Cordero.

 

To me, the trade will be to fill a specific need our system cannot cover and will involve a good but not great player wo is overpaid, so the prospect return will not need to be substantial- hopefully just players, Bloom does not see as being a part of the 40 man roster after rule 5 and FA additions (maybe Chavis?)

 

There is also a chance we slide before the deadline and become sellers. This would actually make Bloom's job easier, but this team seems magical, to me, even after an 8-2 loss to the team chasing us.

[Kimmi]

I played around with the Baseball Musings Lineup Tool earlier today, just for funsies. The tool is not the end all be all by any means, but it does give us some insight into some of the things that we've been talking about with regards to line ups.

 

Here are some typical lineups that Cora uses, and the average # of runs scored per game that each theoretically produces:

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Marwin, Dalbec - 4.885 R/G

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Arroyo, Dalbec - 5.097 R/G (Replacing Marwin with Arroyo)

 

Arroyo, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Kike, Dalbec - 5.130 R/G (Arroyo in the leadoff instead of Kike)

 

*Point #1 - Who is in the line up is more important than who bats where.

 

*Point #2 - Switching the #1 and #8 hitters makes a difference of less than 5 runs a year, or 1/2 a game a year. It's not nothing, but it's also not as significant as most people think.

 

The optimal line up is Verdugo, Bogaerts, Hunter, JD, Devers, Arroyo, Dalbec, Vaz - 5.239 R/G

 

The 'optimal' line up is significantly better, a difference of about 23 runs, than what Cora has been throwing out there in an effort to keep his #2-5 intact.

 

 

Of the top 60 lineups that were produced, about 70% of them had Verdugo leading off. The other 30% had Bogaerts leading off.

 

*Point #3 - OBP is king and extremely critical for the leadoff hitter. Kike, Santana, and even Arroyo have no business leading off.

 

*Point #4 - Do not bat JD in the #3 spot. The #3 spot should probably be the weakest hitter out of the top 5 spots.

[Kimmi]

For Nick, moving the #2-5 up to #1 -4 produces a more effective lineup. One of the top 30 lineups had this scenario, but most lineups don't like JD or Bogaerts hitting 3rd.

 

For Moon, switching JD and Xander in the lineup makes a difference of .005 runs/game or .81 runs over the course of the season. It's not worth it.

[Kimmi]

As of now the SOX are breaking all the established rules for a 1st place team. Weak starting pitching, below average defense, and not winning more at home. So, how are they in 1st place?

1)strong bats from 2-6(I'm now including Renfroe) in the line-up.

2)timely hitting from the weaker bats.

3)a surprisingly good BP that includes a great closer.

4)most importantly a team that never gives up (24 come from behind wins).

 

That being said, I have no answer why the SOX aren't performing better at Fenway. I, also, have no answer why the SOX are playing .667 on the road.

But the SOX are in 1st place so I'm gonna enjoy it as long as it lasts.

 

Also, a better than average record in 1 or 2 run games, which actually is not a good sign for us. We're still a very good team, but we've also benefitted from the randomness gods.

 

That said, the Yankees remain the luckiest team in baseball.

[Kimmi]

To me , the most obvious, the most glaring difference between this year's team and last year's team is the manager. I think the lion's share of the credit should go to Alex Cora.

 

100%.

[Kimmi]

Chance of him completely losing is just as good.

 

He was struggling with his command prior to the MLB crackdown. I don't know how he will get out of this mess. It was telling that he was most vocal about the enforcement of the rule.

 

He has to change his mindset first. He has seemingly already resigned himself to the fact that he can't pitch without the sticky stuff. He needs to find a way to do it. It's as simple as that.

 

I read that he has options remaining but that he can veto being sent down because of his service time. If he really wants to figure it out, be willing to be sent down for a few starts and work on it.

[Kimmi]

I have a great deal of respect for both Bloom and Cora. I probably don't know or understand the issues faced by them in making moves to improve the team, but it does seem clear that moves should be made and soon. Santana is not getting it done, nor is Andreise. Others are struggling, but not everything can be fixed at once. Is it the CBT getting in the way of making moves or some other issue as yet undefined? I am for making moves to improve the team now.

 

It is sounding more and more like Duran will get the call soon.

 

I am guessing that relief pitching is high on Bloom's radar.

[Kimmi]

I know it's not much consolation, but apparently Cora was hoping to pencil Arroyo into leadoff last night, Arroyo couldn't go.

 

As for Santana, and Cordero, well, yeah, Bloom is the guy who acquired these guys to play for us. The bad with the good.

 

I do get the frustration, I just don't think it's Cora's fault.

 

IMO, Cora is being a little stubborn in wanting to keep the #2-5 guys in the #2-5 spots.

 

There are better options.

[oldtimer]

It is sounding more and more like Duran will get the call soon.

 

I am guessing that relief pitching is high on Bloom's radar.

 

Yesterdays Worcester results:

 

Jarren Duran, CF: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 CS

 

Marcus Wilson, RF: 3-4, 1 BB

 

Franchy Cordero, LF: 1-5, 3 K

We need a left handed bat and Duran is looking good. Wilson is also but a right handed hitter.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, Cora is being a little stubborn in wanting to keep the #2-5 guys in the #2-5 spots.

 

There are better options.

 

What if they all love the spots they're in? I thought player comfort trumped other considerations.

 

I'm confoozed.

[Maxbialystock]

I played around with the Baseball Musings Lineup Tool earlier today, just for funsies. The tool is not the end all be all by any means, but it does give us some insight into some of the things that we've been talking about with regards to line ups.

 

Here are some typical lineups that Cora uses, and the average # of runs scored per game that each theoretically produces:

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Marwin, Dalbec - 4.885 R/G

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Arroyo, Dalbec - 5.097 R/G (Replacing Marwin with Arroyo)

 

Arroyo, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Kike, Dalbec - 5.130 R/G (Arroyo in the leadoff instead of Kike)

 

*Point #1 - Who is in the line up is more important than who bats where.

 

*Point #2 - Switching the #1 and #8 hitters makes a difference of less than 5 runs a year, or 1/2 a game a year. It's not nothing, but it's also not as significant as most people think.

 

The optimal line up is Verdugo, Bogaerts, Hunter, JD, Devers, Arroyo, Dalbec, Vaz - 5.239 R/G

 

The 'optimal' line up is significantly better, a difference of about 23 runs, than what Cora has been throwing out there in an effort to keep his #2-5 intact.

 

 

Of the top 60 lineups that were produced, about 70% of them had Verdugo leading off. The other 30% had Bogaerts leading off.

 

*Point #3 - OBP is king and extremely critical for the leadoff hitter. Kike, Santana, and even Arroyo have no business leading off.

 

*Point #4 - Do not bat JD in the #3 spot. The #3 spot should probably be the weakest hitter out of the top 5 spots.

 

Great stuff, thanks.

 

That said, your points 1 and 2 seem diametrically opposed to points 3 and 4. If who is indeed far more important than where, why worry about the #1 and #3 slots?

 

If, however, OBP is indeed king, then this lineup might make sense: Verdugo, Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Devers, Renfroe, Arroyo, Hernandez, Vazquez, Dalbec. If nothing else, the Sox 6 best hitters (OBP and OPS) get the most at bats.

[Bellhorn04]

Great stuff, thanks.

 

That said, your points 1 and 2 seem diametrically opposed to points 3 and 4. If who is indeed far more important than where, why worry about the #1 and #3 slots?

 

It does seem like contradictory points.

[dgalehouse]

I played around with the Baseball Musings Lineup Tool earlier today, just for funsies. The tool is not the end all be all by any means, but it does give us some insight into some of the things that we've been talking about with regards to line ups.

 

Here are some typical lineups that Cora uses, and the average # of runs scored per game that each theoretically produces:

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Marwin, Dalbec - 4.885 R/G

 

Kike, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Arroyo, Dalbec - 5.097 R/G (Replacing Marwin with Arroyo)

 

Arroyo, Verdugo, JD, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vaz, Kike, Dalbec - 5.130 R/G (Arroyo in the leadoff instead of Kike)

 

*Point #1 - Who is in the line up is more important than who bats where.

 

*Point #2 - Switching the #1 and #8 hitters makes a difference of less than 5 runs a year, or 1/2 a game a year. It's not nothing, but it's also not as significant as most people think.

 

The optimal line up is Verdugo, Bogaerts, Hunter, JD, Devers, Arroyo, Dalbec, Vaz - 5.239 R/G

 

The 'optimal' line up is significantly better, a difference of about 23 runs, than what Cora has been throwing out there in an effort to keep his #2-5 intact.

 

 

Of the top 60 lineups that were produced, about 70% of them had Verdugo leading off. The other 30% had Bogaerts leading off.

 

*Point #3 - OBP is king and extremely critical for the leadoff hitter. Kike, Santana, and even Arroyo have no business leading off.

 

*Point #4 - Do not bat JD in the #3 spot. The #3 spot should probably be the weakest hitter out of the top 5 spots.

 

Baseball Musings Lineup Tool ? Ooofah!! The end is near.

[Hugh2]

I think Duran gets called up around July 2nd. Book it.

[notin]

I think Duran gets called up around July 2nd. Book it.

 

If nothing else, I like the confidence…

[Nick]

Kimmi please e-mail Cora on optimal lineup.

[oldtimer]

I think Duran gets called up around July 2nd. Book it.

 

He is certainly one option for the leadoff spot. From an article today, the Sox leadoff is deplorable

 

The Red Sox actually have been among baseball’s worst teams when it comes to getting production from the No. 1 spot in the batting order.

 

Hits 26th

Batting average 28th

On-base percentage 30th

Slugging percentage 28th

wOBA 30th

OPS+ 30th

 

I doubt that Duran could do worse, but the Sox could still trade to fill the position, but then what would they do with Duran?

[Maxbialystock]

Kimmi please e-mail Cora on optimal lineup.

 

I think all four points are valid even though 1 and 2 are in conflict with 3 and 4.

 

My own ridiculous notion is that this year no Sox player wants to or is able to lead off. They all crave the "protection" of a spot further down in the order when expectations (for 7th, 8th, or 9th hitters) are lower.

 

Kimmi's point, demonstrated statistically, is that who is in the lineup is far more important than where they hit in the batting order.

[Nick]

But she makes the point 2-5 should be batting 1--4. No one can convince me giving Santana first crack to hit for 5th time is ok under any scenario.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Speaking of Santana, he was introduced this morning to the 1st and 3rd base coaches, who had no idea who Santana was.

[Nick]

Maybe he will go on a tear......

[mvp 78]

Maybe he will go on a tear......

 

Of his ACL?

[Maxbialystock]

But she makes the point 2-5 should be batting 1--4. No one can convince me giving Santana first crack to hit for 5th time is ok under any scenario.

 

Agree with you and with Kimmi: Verdugo, Bogey, JDM, Devers, Renfroe, Arroyo, Hernandez, Vazquez, Dalbec should work better than any Sox lineup so far this season.

[Maxbialystock]

Speaking of Santana, he was introduced this morning to the 1st and 3rd base coaches, who had no idea who Santana was.

 

Our winner!!!

[Nick]

Of his ACL?

 

This is awful good!

[notin]

But she makes the point 2-5 should be batting 1--4. No one can convince me giving Santana first crack to hit for 5th time is ok under any scenario.

 

Opposing pitchers disagree with this statement….

[moonslav59]

It is sounding more and more like Duran will get the call soon.

 

I am guessing that relief pitching is high on Bloom's radar.

 

I’ll be so pumped when Duran gets the call. There’s a good chance he makes a nice impact.

 

I agree on RPer is the likely trade goal.

[moonslav59]

I think Duran gets called up around July 2nd. Book it.

 

Or after the Allstate game.