A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

His numbers away from Coors aren't much better (sometimes worse like this year) than at home.

 

FIP and xFIP are both half a run lower on the road for his career.

[mvp 78]

FIP and xFIP are both half a run lower on the road for his career.

 

Check that again.

 

Home: 3.58 xFIP

 

Away: 4.04 xFIP

 

That's what my computer is showing me though.

[notin]

Check that again.

 

Home: 3.58 xFIP

 

Away: 4.04 xFIP

 

That's what my computer is showing me though.

 

Oops. Would it be believable to say I was doing a head stand in my yoga class when I checked that?

[mvp 78]

Oops. Would it be believable to say I was doing a head stand in my yoga class when I checked that?

 

I'll allow it.

[mvp 78]

Losing Glasnow could really hurt the Rays.

 

@TBTimes_Rays

#Rays Glasnow update:

Glasnow underwent a MRI this morning in Chicago, which revealed a partial UCL tear as well as flexor strain. A timeline for his return will be determined after further medical evaluation.

 

Hell yeah, brother.

[moonslav59]

I'll address 2022 in my next post.

 

My post was about 2022. Instead of going from 0 baseline, I like to start with current year numbers and then add and subtract. This way I don't miss much.

 

In addition to Price ($16M) and Eovaldi ($17M), JD ($22M) and possibly Xander ($20M) will come off the books at the end of 2022. That's $72M total.

 

I know you asked about 2022, but since this thread is about 2021, I started with that area, first. I did not go into the fact that we may be sellers at the deadline and how that might affect the 2022 outlook.

 

I guess we go on the assumption we take the options on Richards, Vaz and Perez, but maybe not Andriese, who would make $3.5M, next year. Assume no on him. . I don't like to go by what we drop in salary, since arb raises can and will be substantial, this winter.

 

Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3.

Renfroe 3 of 4

Plawecki 4 of 4

Brasier 2 of 3

Cordero 2 of 3

and all these players first timers:

Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor, Brennan & Chavis

 

I'll assume JD stays at $22M and does not opt out.

 

Here are my numbers, including the 3 options taken (in Lux $):

 

25 Sale

22 JD (no opt out or renegotiation)

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

15 Price (edit)

10 Richards (option)

7.0 Kike

7.0 Vaz (option)

6.0 Perez (option)

 

That's a base of $129M

 

I'm no expert on arbs, but let's assume:

$7M from $4.58M) Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3.

$5M (from $3.1M) Renfroe 3 of 4

$2M (from $1.6M) Plawecki 4 of 4

$1.5M (from $1.25M) Brasier 2 of 3

$1.0M (from $800K)Cordero 2 of 3

$4.0M Verdugo, 1 of 3

$3.5M Pivetta, 1 of 3

$2.0M Arroyo, 1 of 3

$1.5M Taylor, 1of 4,

$800K Brennan, 1of 3

$800K Chavis, 1 of 4

 

The arbs add about $29.5M plus $2.5M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $16M for player benefits and the total before replacing or adding anyone is:

 

$177M

 

If we can spend up to the first tax line (assuming it's the same $210M) we will have $33M to spend. If we can spend up to the second line, it's $53M.

 

I'm not going to name any names except I think maybe we try to bring Barnes back.

 

The big need areas, to me, are (with projected cost via free agency):

 

#1-2 SP ($15-30M/yr) Losinng ERod this winter and are adding Sale in 2021. (Could add Houck/Whitlock)

Closer ($10-18M) Losing Barnes (No closer in the system unless Ort turns a miracle)

Set-Up ($5-10M) Losing Ottavino (no clear #2 RP'er in the system)

1B, 2B, OF ($5-20M) Losing Marwin (Duran, Casas, Downs?)

RP'er ($3-7M) Losing Andriese (Bazardo/Seabold/ converted SP'er assuming all SP'er healthy)

 

That's $38M minimum and maybe $78M maximim. I doubt we spend more than $53M, so we can't get the best at every position of need. More likely, we will plan on in system options to cover 1B, 2B and or CF and go cheap there. We might sign just 2 RP'er not 3. We may sign a #3 SP'er not a #1-2 type, which may depend on how Sale looks, this year.

 

We have a great chance to improve upon this current roster.

Barnes will be tough to extend, re-sign or replace.

Ottavino is pitching to his contract value, so that should be about push.

ERod looked very hard to replace before seeing him in 2021, so far. We still need to fill his slot, but right now, he's pitching like a 4 or 5 (maybe even a 6), but to improve, we need to replace him with a 1 or 2, IMO. That should be our top priority, and if we only have $33M to spend, we might spend $20M on a solid #2 or very old ace and $13M on a good but not great closer and count on our system to fill out the depth issues.

 

It should be an interesting winter.

 

(edited numbers and comments to reflect Price's $15M I forgot to include.)

 

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Replace Barnes with Houck.

 

I have questions about Houck as a starter, but I have faith he could be a lights out reliever…

[Hugh2]

Replace Barnes with Houck.

 

I have questions about Houck as a starter, but I have faith he could be a lights out reliever…

 

I always thought Houck was Barnes 2.0. A guy who might start if he can add a pitch to his arsenal and harness his command. Barnes failed as a starter, I’m very happy he’s owning the closer role.

 

I’m not saying the Sox should give up on Tanner just yet as a starter. But he has the stuff to be a late inning reliever too.

[moonslav59]

Replace Barnes with Houck.

 

I have questions about Houck as a starter, but I have faith he could be a lights out reliever…

 

I'm not for spending $18M+ on a top closer.

 

Even Kimbrel's contract bugged me due to the haul we had to give up to take that on.

 

We will need to sign at least 2-3 decent RP'ers, if we lose Barnes & Ottavino.

 

We don't have to go large and long, however.

[moonslav59]

I always thought Houck was Barnes 2.0. A guy who might start if he can add a pitch to his arsenal and harness his command. Barnes failed as a starter, I’m very happy he’s owning the closer role.

 

I’m not saying the Sox should give up on Tanner just yet as a starter. But he has the stuff to be a late inning reliever too.

 

When and if he comes back, this year, we can give that a try.

[notin]

I know Houck and Whitlock are both being groomed to start, but they could also be an extremely effective duo of game-shortening relievers…

[moonslav59]

I know Houck and Whitlock are both being groomed to start, but they could also be an extremely effective duo of game-shortening relievers…

 

 

The pen may be the most likely landing spot for both, especially Houck, but unless we replace or re-sign ERod, we'll need one of these guys to start- two if someone gets hurt: Whitlock, Houck or Seabold.

[jacksonianmarch]

Be careful trying to turn successful pen arms into starters. Whitlock was a good starter in the minors, but you’re talking about a lockdown swing guy who might be best served as a Swiss army knife

[Bellhorn04]

Be careful trying to turn successful pen arms into starters. Whitlock was a good starter in the minors, but you’re talking about a lockdown swing guy who might be best served as a Swiss army knife

 

Is there really any such thing as a premier "Swiss army knife" pitcher, other than over a short period of time? Whitlock's usage in that capacity this year has been dictated by other factors.

[Hugh2]

Be careful trying to turn successful pen arms into starters. Whitlock was a good starter in the minors, but you’re talking about a lockdown swing guy who might be best served as a Swiss army knife

 

This isn’t like the time when they tried converting Bard into a starter, he had subpar control and no third pitch and it ruined him.

 

Whitlock has always been a starter and is only being used in this role because the Sox have to. They will begin to stretch him out next spring. His stuff is legit, and he’s 1000x more valuable as a starter.

 

His stuff has taken a noticeable tick up post surgery. The fastball is better, and his change up improved a whole grade. He now has 3 plus pitches, and has started to improve his slider as well.

 

I can’t wait to see him throw 7 shut out inning vs the Yankees in 2022. 😜

[moonslav59]

Is there really any such thing as a premier "Swiss army knife" pitcher, other than over a short period of time? Whitlock's usage in that capacity this year has been dictated by other factors.

 

It's not like he's been an established RP'er with a long record of success as one.

 

It will be interesting to see if he ever does get "stretched out" like they said he was going to be or gets a spot start here or there.

[Hugh2]

To reiterate my point with less words, Whitlock is not really a pen arm and never has been. They’re nursing him at the MLB level so they can keep him.

[moonslav59]

This isn’t like the time when they tried converting Bard into a starter, he had subpar control and no third pitch and it ruined him.

 

Whitlock has always been a starter and is only being used in this role because the Sox have to. They will begin to stretch him out next spring. His stuff is legit, and he’s 1000x more valuable as a starter.

 

His stuff has taken a noticeable tick up post surgery. The fastball is better, and his change up improved a whole grade. He now has 3 plus pitches, and has started to improve his slider as well.

 

I can’t wait to see him throw 7 shut out inning vs the Yankees in 2022. 😜

 

I think he scares jacko more as a starter.

[Bellhorn04]

To reiterate my point with less words, Whitlock is not really a pen arm and never has been. They’re nursing him at the MLB level so they can keep him.

 

^^^

[Hugh2]

It's not like he's been an established RP'er with a long record of success as one.

 

It will be interesting to see if he ever does get "stretched out" like they said he was going to be or gets a spot start here or there.

 

I really have no clue what I’m talking about here and this is 100% conjecture but I’m starting to wonder if he’s pitched SOOO well that they’ve delayed stretching him out so they don’t have to shut him down down the stretch.

[moonslav59]

I really have no clue what I’m talking about here and this is 100% conjecture but I’m starting to wonder if he’s pitched SOOO well that they’ve delayed stretching him out so they don’t have to shut him down down the stretch.

 

That and all our starters were doing very well, and our pen needed a set-up guy, badly.

 

He's certainly on an innings or workload limit, this year, so yes, having him not be all used up by September and October might be a worthwhile choice made.

[Bellhorn04]

I really have no clue what I’m talking about here and this is 100% conjecture but I’m starting to wonder if he’s pitched SOOO well that they’ve delayed stretching him out so they don’t have to shut him down down the stretch.

 

Maybe we should revisit the original statement by Cora, too, to see what he said about time frame, if anything.

[Hugh2]

That and all our starters were doing very well, and our pen needed a set-up guy, badly.

 

He's certainly on an innings or workload limit, this year, so yes, having him not be all used up by September and October might be a worthwhile choice made.

 

Maybe him and Sale can piggyback. Combined they can be a shutdown ace going deeper than they otherwise could alone. Half joking.

[moonslav59]

Maybe him and Sale can piggyback. Combined they can be a shutdown ace going deeper than they otherwise could alone. Half joking.

 

If we go back to 14 pitchers, something like that may work out, and another idea might be to increase his pitches per game but not pitch him as often. He could end up going 2-4 innings every 4-5 days and give all our starters a bit of a rest every few starts by yanking them early on a schedule.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of old starters possibly available this winter, here's a partial list..

42

Rich Hill

40

Wainwright

39

Verlander

JA Happ

38

Morton

Greinke

Lester

37

Scherzer

36

Kluber

Cueto ($22M option)

Arrieta

35

L Lynn

T Roark

T Milone

I Nova

34

Kershaw

Richards ($10M option)

B Anderson

C Anderson

A Cobb

33

Duffy

Archer

Paxton

Pineda

Harvey

Smyly

Quintana

Cahill

 

The best of the younger ones...

29

Syndergaard

ERod

D Bundy

C Rodon

Aaron Sanchez

30

Stroman

R Ray

V Velasquez

Jon Gray

Carlos Martinez

J Urena

M Wacha

31

Bauer (opt out of $62M/2 remaining)

K Gausman

S Matz

J Teheran

M Perez (team option)

Kikuchi (team and player options)

A Heaney

J Lyles

A Wood

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would (1) promote Duran and send Dalbec to AAA. (2) I would give the starting 1b job to Santana. He gets a month (or so) to prove he deserves the job. I would like to see what Santana can do with consistent playing time. If he continues to suck, the Red Sox need to trade for a starting first baseman at the trade deadline.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm hoping the Red Sox bring back E-Rod, the free agent options aren't overly exciting.

 

I wish the Red Sox signed Taijuan Walker in the offseason. It looks like the Mets found a bargain--he signed for three years at an awesome price.

 

Syndegaard and Stroman are interesting options, but these aren't the old Mets. If the Mets want to bring both of them back, they have the richest owner in baseball and he will spend the money.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[kenmeister]

Hey all sorry I have been away.

 

I just want to ask ... why is E. Hernandez hitting first? .280 on-base percentage in the lead-off spot? I can't figure it out. Verdugo seems the ideal lead-off hitter, then Bogaerts in the 2 spot, JD in the 3 spot, Devers in the 4 spot, Renfroe in the 5 spot, Vazquez 6th, etc.

[iortiz]

Hey all sorry I have been away.

 

I just want to ask ... why is E. Hernandez hitting first? .280 on-base percentage in the lead-off spot? I can't figure it out. Verdugo seems the ideal lead-off hitter, then Bogaerts in the 2 spot, JD in the 3 spot, Devers in the 4 spot, Renfroe in the 5 spot, Vazquez 6th, etc.

It’s a question a lot of people have been asking for a while including myself.

[moonslav59]

I would (1) promote Duran and send Dalbec to AAA. (2) I would give the starting 1b job to Santana. He gets a month (or so) to prove he deserves the job. I would like to see what Santana can do with consistent playing time. If he continues to suck, the Red Sox need to trade for a starting first baseman at the trade deadline.

 

Dalbec has started to show signs of life-- 3 Hrs, a 2B & 3B in his last 9 games.

 

Santana is the one that should go, if anyone.