A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

I would love the game to relax their worry about sticky stuff, get rid of the shift and go back to a real baseball

[Hugh2]

Wilson is a prospect to fill out a roster, platoon a little, and sit on the bench a lot. When Duran gets called up, it won't be as a pinch runner. A future full-time star, according to both the manager and chief baseball officer, Duran needs to keep playing every day -- getting his four ABs and shagging fly balls in game situations... until he's ready to do both in primetime.

 

Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.

[Bellhorn04]

I would love the game to relax their worry about sticky stuff, get rid of the shift and go back to a real baseball

 

Yes, it's kind of ironic that MLB is suddenly freaking out about pitchers doctoring the baseballs, when they've been doing it themselves. Did they stop to think that maybe it's the change in the 2021 baseballs that is causing the issue, rather than pitchers making a sudden change?

[notin]

Wilson is a prospect to fill out a roster, platoon a little, and sit on the bench a lot. When Duran gets called up, it won't be as a pinch runner. A future full-time star, according to both the manager and chief baseball officer, Duran needs to keep playing every day -- getting his four ABs and shagging fly balls in game situations... until he's ready to do both in primetime.

 

Maybe Wilson is a bit underappreciated (guilty of it myself) and Duran is a little overhyped. Sometimes these early evaluations are a bit off.

 

At one point, the Angels thought more of Randal Grichuk than they did of Mike Trout…

[notin]

Yes, it's kind of ironic that MLB is suddenly freaking out about pitchers doctoring the baseballs, when they've been doing it themselves. Did they stop to think that maybe it's the change in the 2021 baseballs that is causing the issue, rather than pitchers making a sudden change?

 

EXCUSE ME, SIR! But are you possibly suggesting that Manfred might be a bit of a baboon-brained buffoon? If so, good day to you!

 

Also, yeah he is…

[notin]

Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.

 

One reason is Wilson is already on the 40 man roster.

 

Duran went to college while Wilson signed out of high school, but taking this a bit further,

 

At age 22 in 2019, both players were in AA. Duran posted a .634 OPS. Wilson had a .749.

 

After that season, both players were on Peoria in the AFL. Duran posted a .737 OPS. Wilson posted an .878.

 

This season, Duran has a .972 OPS. Wilson has a .956.

 

Wilson is about 3 weeks older. But for some reason, the feeling is Duran is some future All Star with nothing to prove in AAA, while Wilson is a future 4th outfielder whose primary purpose will be shagging flies during practice.

 

I'm also struggling to buy into Duran. In all levels of A Ball, he never posted a BABIP under .400. Wilson was never that high in A ball.

 

This year, in AAA, Duran's BABIP is actually very low and Wilson's is .400. Duran's home road splits are atrocious. Wilson's are actually remarkably equal.

 

Duran strikes out less but also walks a lot less. Wilson plays better defense, but has the advantage of always being an outfielder while Duran only moved a couple seasons ago.

 

There are a few pros and cons that make me think these players are closer to equal than we get when going by amount of press coverage each gets.

 

I'm hesitant to call either of the ma future All Star right now But then I almost never label a minor leaguer that way...

Edited June 15, 2021 by notin

[mvp 78]

Jennings did say "The spin rate data supports the assertion", but the assertion he was referring to was one by Martin Perez that it's not the sticky stuff.

 

The data presented by Jennings shows that there hasn't been any clear correlation with drops in spin rates.

 

^^^

 

Reading is fundamental!

[mvp 78]

Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.

 

With Duran, it would be more prudent to make sure he's more refined when he gets up here. There's more leeway with Wilson to just throw him up here and see if he sticks. His glove is pretty good.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Wilson is a bit underappreciated (guilty of it myself) and Duran is a little overhyped. Sometimes these early evaluations are a bit off.

 

At one point, the Angels thought more of Randal Grichuk than they did of Mike Trout…

 

It couldn't have been that long since Trout debuted at 19 and Grichuk didn't even get to AA until two years later.

 

Again, Grichuk taken at pick 24, Trout right after at 25.

 

Grichuk spent all of 2009 in R, Trout was promoted to A during 2009. It took them less than 40 professional games to determine Trout was better.

[notin]

It couldn't have been that long since Trout debuted at 19 and Grichuk didn't even get to AA until two years later.

 

Again, Grichuk taken at pick 24, Trout right after at 25.

 

Grichuk spent all of 2009 in R, Trout was promoted to A during 2009. It took them less than 40 professional games to determine Trout was better.

 

Oh it wasn’t for long. But they drafted Grichuk first. It’s just the most famous of many examples of inferior players being drafted ahead of superior ones…

[mvp 78]

Oh it wasn’t for long. But they drafted Grichuk first. It’s just the most famous of many examples of inferior players being drafted ahead of superior ones…

 

Hard to nitpick over Trout and Grichuk since they were drafted back to back by the same freakin team.

[notin]

Hard to nitpick over Trout and Grichuk since they were drafted back to back by the same freakin team.

 

Just making a point about early evaluations of players.

 

Despite my repeated condemnation of Wilson, I’m starting to wonder if he isn’t at least as good as Duran. He’s been as good or better for a few years now. Both Wilson (BABIP) and Duran (Polar Park) have reasons to question their current seasons. So I’m just wondering why Duran is “the answer” while Wilson is considered a stopgap at best.

 

The one thing in Duran’s corner is the professional evaluators like the folks at Baseball America (who, needless to say, are superior to me at this kind of stuff) clearly love Duran and largely ignore Wilson. But that still makes me wonder why…

[jacksonianmarch]

The sticky stuff may give a higher spin rate, but the biggest thing it provides is better command. For a guy like Perez, command is absolutely key as even with a better spin rate, a fastball off the margins is a bomb. Take it from a guy who had some pine tar under his left long sleeve in college. It definitely helps when you’re sweaty as hell and just trying to keep from hitting a batter.

[mvp 78]

Just making a point about early evaluations of players.

 

Despite my repeated condemnation of Wilson, I’m starting to wonder if he isn’t at least as good as Duran. He’s been as good or better for a few years now. Both Wilson (BABIP) and Duran (Polar Park) have reasons to question their current seasons. So I’m just wondering why Duran is “the answer” while Wilson is considered a stopgap at best.

 

The one thing in Duran’s corner is the professional evaluators like the folks at Baseball America (who, needless to say, are superior to me at this kind of stuff) clearly love Duran and largely ignore Wilson. But that still makes me wonder why…

 

Probably because scouts are telling us that Duran is a top 30 prospect and Wilson is considered a fringe prospect at best. Scouting based solely on MiLB box scores isn't the best way to go about it.

[mvp 78]

Per Fangraphs Jan 2021:

Duran - 7th ranked Sox prospect, 55, 45, 35, 70, 40, 50

 

The Red Sox and Duran added yet another wrinkle to his already surprising pro development track by making a very significant swing alteration that was evident during the club’s alternate site activity. He now starts with a narrower base than before, and his hands are set much lower to start, changes that theoretically create better rotation up through the kinetic chain and natural swing loft, respectively. We won’t know if the changes have a substantive impact on Duran’s power output until sometime in 2021, as his alt site hitting metrics are meaningless because they were generated against the same mediocre pitchers he saw over and over, but visually, it now appears Duran can better lift pitches in the bottom of the zone. He didn’t exactly hit for power in Puerto Rico over the winter, though, and the org thinks it’s because his new swing requires more precise timing, which Duran hasn’t yet found.

 

Still, let’s not forget Duran’s tools (he’s a 70 runner) nor the foundation of statistical performance he has laid dating back to college.

 

Wilson - 42nd ranked prospect, 35, 45, 55, 60, 50, 35 (lower hit tool, more raw power than Duran)

 

Wilson has some carrying tools. He has grown into power, his swing creates natural lift, which enables it to play in games, and he has plus straightline speed. His feel for contact is very limited, so he exists in that Keon Broxton zone, where clear big league tools often get squeezed off rosters by someone with similar skills who hits left-handed, or boasts some other marginal improvement.

[dgalehouse]

They used to have a gimmick in pro wrestling where the referee would pat down and frisk the wrestlers before the match , looking for any hidden " foreign objects " that could be used for cheating. Obviously , he didn't check inside the trunks , where invariably brass knuckles or packets of salt would be hidden by the " cheating " wrestler. They would be brought into play at a critical point in the match. Everyone in the arena knew what was going on except for the hapless ref. With Manfred as commissioner , MLB is reaching that same level of absurdity.

[mvp 78]

Sox Prospects has Duran 3rd with a current 5 grade at 4-6. 5 is average regular (current), 6 is impact every day player (future).

 

Summation: Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder. Nailing down his future projection is tough without a chance to evaluate swing changes made in 2020 without true game action. Speed is not a question, and hit tool should get to above-average if he can refine his approach. If 2020 power development is real, he could become a dynamic offensive player. Has already shown strong ability to make contact and drive the ball into the gaps. With his speed, has the potential to put a lot of pressure on the defense and inflate his average with infield singles and slugging by taking extra bases. Could also steal 30-plus bases if he improves his instincts. Is still continuing to develop in center field, but likely to develop into at least an average defender there and has the raw tools to become an above-average defender. Has one surefire major league impact tool in his speed, so should have a role on a major league roster even in the worst-case scenario, especially if MLB retains the runner-on-second rule in extra innings going forward.

 

They have Wilson at 36 and ungraded.

 

Hit: Wide, balanced stance with a leg lift. Strikes out at high clips, but shows semblance of plate discipline. Hit tool is a major question mark. Will always have swing and miss in his game. Can struggle with advanced off-speed stuff. Solid plate discipline.

 

Power: Swing has some loft, will show above-average raw power. Present in-game power is fringe-average and there are questions about how much his power will play due to his questionable hit tool.

 

Run: Plus speed and range.

 

Field: Above-average defensive center fielder. Should stick in center field, although could move to a corner if he fills out. Solid overall instincts.

 

Summation: Currently profiles as a fringe bench player, possibly a 4th/5th outfielder at the major league level, but could develop into more with continued hit tool development. Will take time to develop into his tools.

 

Basically, there are questions about Wilson's hit tool and that he doesn't have the game impacting speed that Duran has. That's why Duran is ranked higher.

[mvp 78]

They used to have a gimmick in pro wrestling where the referee would pat down and frisk the wrestlers before the match , looking for any hidden " foreign objects " that could be used for cheating. Obviously , he didn't check inside the trunks , where invariably brass knuckles or packets of salt would be hidden by the " cheating " wrestler. They would be brought into play at a critical point in the match. Everyone in the arena knew what was going on except for the hapless ref. With Manfred as commissioner , MLB is reaching that same level of absurdity.

 

Also, they never checked the manager/valet.

[moonslav59]

Duran might be the future outfield over Wilson, but there's plenty of reason to believe that right now...Wilson might be the better option. Maybe not in August, or next spring, but right now he might get the call first.

 

Yes, we are talking about "right now."

 

The main question, first, is how long a look do we give Santana?

 

Dalbec seems to have extended his look to some degree with his whopping .795 OPS over his last 9 games (3 HRs a 2B & a 3B).

 

Since Chavis has already been called up, all signs point to Wilson vs Duran or an extra pitcher, if Santana is cut loose. (Remember, there is no sending Santana down to AAA, unless he goes unclaimed after being DFA'd.)

[notin]

Sox Prospects has Duran 3rd with a current 5 grade at 4-6. 5 is average regular (current), 6 is impact every day player (future).

 

Summation: Potential fringe starting outfielder with two carrying tools. Ceiling of an everyday center fielder. Nailing down his future projection is tough without a chance to evaluate swing changes made in 2020 without true game action. Speed is not a question, and hit tool should get to above-average if he can refine his approach. If 2020 power development is real, he could become a dynamic offensive player. Has already shown strong ability to make contact and drive the ball into the gaps. With his speed, has the potential to put a lot of pressure on the defense and inflate his average with infield singles and slugging by taking extra bases. Could also steal 30-plus bases if he improves his instincts. Is still continuing to develop in center field, but likely to develop into at least an average defender there and has the raw tools to become an above-average defender. Has one surefire major league impact tool in his speed, so should have a role on a major league roster even in the worst-case scenario, especially if MLB retains the runner-on-second rule in extra innings going forward.

 

They have Wilson at 36 and ungraded.

 

Hit: Wide, balanced stance with a leg lift. Strikes out at high clips, but shows semblance of plate discipline. Hit tool is a major question mark. Will always have swing and miss in his game. Can struggle with advanced off-speed stuff. Solid plate discipline.

 

Power: Swing has some loft, will show above-average raw power. Present in-game power is fringe-average and there are questions about how much his power will play due to his questionable hit tool.

 

Run: Plus speed and range.

 

Field: Above-average defensive center fielder. Should stick in center field, although could move to a corner if he fills out. Solid overall instincts.

 

Summation: Currently profiles as a fringe bench player, possibly a 4th/5th outfielder at the major league level, but could develop into more with continued hit tool development. Will take time to develop into his tools.

 

Basically, there are questions about Wilson's hit tool and that he doesn't have the game impacting speed that Duran has. That's why Duran is ranked higher.

 

I don’t get to see the tools, only the results. But I probably wouldn’t know what to look for anyway.

 

I get that Duran puts the bat on the ball better, but we’ve also seen lots of players with “game impacting speed” who really had very little impact, with Billy Hamilton at or near the top of the list.

 

So to put it into terms I can relate to, who would be a good MLB comp for Duran? With Wilson, Brian Goodwin seems to leap to mind. At least to me. Any thoughts?

[mvp 78]

I don’t get to see the tools, only the results. But I probably wouldn’t know what to look for anyway.

 

I get that Duran puts the bat on the ball better, but we’ve also seen lots of players with “game impacting speed” who really had very little impact, with Billy Hamilton at or near the top of the list.

 

So to put it into terms I can relate to, who would be a good MLB comp for Duran? With Wilson, Brian Goodwin seems to leap to mind. At least to me. Any thoughts?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/billy-hamilton/10199/stats?position=OF

 

Hamilton's BSR disagrees with you.

 

Young Grady Sizemore as a comp?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

The Red Sox would make their lives so much easier if they walked a little more.

7.6% 25th April

6.7% 30th May

7.0% 25th June

 

JDM is slumping bad in June and has only taken 1 walk which is not like him.

 

Devers

First 132 PA: 15 BB (.371 OBP)

Last 133 PA: 2 BB (.308 OBP)

[Nick]

Sox are doing well. Rays are just unbelievable at the moment. It's hard for me to think they will keep up their recent pace.

 

That said....

 

"We lead the league in runs scored average, don't worry about it"

"Our top group will continue with their OPS"

 

Most people knew it wouldn't last. We're good hitting team but there are better hitting teams. We can't expect four players to carry us the entire year. What's amazing is we've been able to win some close games where we've really not hit well.

 

We will go on the road where we've done pretty well. We don't dominate at home for sure.

 

We're still not out of winning the division. Overall, the team has played well.

[notin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/billy-hamilton/10199/stats?position=OF

 

Hamilton's BSR disagrees with you.

 

Young Grady Sizemore as a comp?

 

Hamilton has been worth 10.8 fWAR in 8 seasons. Sure his BSR was good when he actually got on base.

 

Grady Sizemore, especially early Grady, feels a bit lofty of a goal to me. Think Duran can post 6 to 7 fWAR annually? I was thinking more like maybe a Tommy Pham, but without the stab wound…

[mvp 78]

Hamilton has been worth 10.8 fWAR in 8 seasons. Sure his BSR was good when he actually got on base.

 

Grady Sizemore, especially early Grady, feels a bit lofty of a goal to me. Think Duran can post 6 to 7 fWAR annually? I was thinking more like maybe a Tommy Pham, but without the stab wound…

 

I only gave the comp that his winter PR coach made.

[notin]

So for me I’m thinking Marcus Wilson as a young Brian Goodwin with Duran as a young Tommy Pham. Pham has certainly had the better career and is the better player, but Goodwin has spent his career largely as an underappreciated and unheralded player whose always done his job pretty well.

 

Good or bad comps?

[notin]

I only gave the comp that his winter PR coach made.

 

 

Fair enough. Great if true…

[mvp 78]

So for me I’m thinking Marcus Wilson as a young Brian Goodwin with Duran as a young Tommy Pham. Pham has certainly had the better career and is the better player, but Goodwin has spent his career largely as an underappreciated and unheralded player whose always done his job pretty well.

 

Good or bad comps?

 

Pham can't be a good comp because he's only not the runner Duran is.

[mvp 78]

Fair enough. Great if true…

 

Yeah, he probably doesn't get there.

[notin]

Pham can't be a good comp because he's only not the runner Duran is.

 

He’s also a better defender. But he is, when healthy, a 4-6 fWAR player…