A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I was just thinking how to pay for a $30M pitcher. E Rod and Pedey adds to $22M. More than likely E Rod will cost us at least $15M-$18M so the $30M is covered.

 

How we pay is by going over the tax line, next year.

 

You could also add ERod, Pedey and Ottavino to get ace money.

 

Getting rid of ERod and Richards and replacing the two with one ace still leave a hole that maybe Whitlock/Houck can fill, but then how good do Perez, Pivetta and Eovaldi look, right now?

 

You know me. I'm always for adding an ace, when practical, and this winter seems like times up.

[moonslav59]

It's nearly gone. One more year, next year.

 

Replacing Eovaldi $17M and Price $15M with an ace could be the big difference maker for 2023.

 

I'm hoping was can do something this winter (too).

[Bellhorn04]

How we pay is by going over the tax line, next year.

 

You could also add ERod, Pedey and Ottavino to get ace money.

 

Getting rid of ERod and Richards and replacing the two with one ace still leave a hole that maybe Whitlock/Houck can fill, but then how good do Perez, Pivetta and Eovaldi look, right now?

 

You know me. I'm always for adding an ace, when practical, and this winter seems like times up.

 

I think someone mentioned that the crop of free agent starting pitching this year is not all that attractive.

[Nick]

He's only had 44 AB and probably not fair to judge him, I just feel bad for Santana. He hit .150 in May but he's hitting .083 in June. Not sure what you do with him. Marwin already plays multiple positions so having Santana for his speed makes no sense.

 

Remember, 2021 was year of discovery. Santana was never going to be long term solution. If he's not helping he needs to go.

[Nick]

I think someone mentioned that the crop of free agent starting pitching this year is not all that attractive.

 

Not true, they're old, but they're household names.

[oldtimer]

He's only had 44 AB and probably not fair to judge him, I just feel bad for Santana. He hit .150 in May but he's hitting .083 in June. Not sure what you do with him. Marwin already plays multiple positions so having Santana for his speed makes no sense.

 

Remember, 2021 was year of discovery. Santana was never going to be long term solution. If he's not helping he needs to go.

 

Agreed. He and Weber.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, raise your hand if you still trust Bloom if he drafts a high school shortstop over one of the top two college pitchers next month. Wait, do the Sox still have time to watch them throw without using super glue on the ball?

[moonslav59]

I think someone mentioned that the crop of free agent starting pitching this year is not all that attractive.

 

It's a good one- just most are old or injury prone.

 

I'm thinking an older starter might be good, since they may only be a 2-3 year risk.

[moonslav59]

Ok, raise your hand if you still trust Bloom if he drafts a high school shortstop over one of the top two college pitchers next month. Wait, do the Sox still have time to watch them throw without using super glue on the ball?

 

Whoever Bloom drafts, I'll have confidence he took the right guy, but we all know it's kind of a crap shoot.

 

Every draft has someone taken lower that beats out several higher picks. I'm sure this one will not be different.

 

Let's hope people don't look back and single out our pick as the bad one.

 

If we take a hs SS over Leiter or Davis, and they go on to do much better, I think the criticism will be brutal and maybe not entirely uncalled for.

[Hugh2]

Whoever Bloom drafts, I'll have confidence he took the right guy, but we all know it's kind of a crap shoot.

 

Every draft has someone taken lower that beats out several higher picks. I'm sure this one will not be different.

 

Let's hope people don't look back and single out our pick as the bad one.

 

If we take a hs SS over Leiter or Davis, and they go on to do much better, I think the criticism will be brutal and maybe not entirely uncalled for.

 

Conversely you can say if Leiter can’t stay healthy or Davis strikes out too much people will be up in arms if Mayer and Lawlar pan out.

 

I hate comps, because I think they’re lazy but people are comparing those two to Xander Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks lost 7-0 as German got shelled.

 

Maybe our only joy will be finishing ahead of them.

[moonslav59]

The Yanks have lost...

 

3 straight

7 of 9

11 of 15

13 of 18

 

Yes, 5-13 in their last 18 games (after winning 6 straight).

 

The Sox have lost...

 

2 straight

4 of 6

7 of 13

9 of 18

 

It's not as bad as it seems.

 

We are streaky, so maybe we have a few more win streaks up our sleeves. We've won 9 straight, 5 straight, 4 straight twice and 3 straight three times. We've lost 3 in a row three times.

 

We knew June would be tough. We are 6-6 in June.

 

Edited June 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

The Yanks have lost...

 

3 straight

7 of 9

11 of 15

13 of 18

 

Yes, 5-13 in their last 18 games (after winning 6 straight).

 

The Sox have lost...

 

2 straight

4 of 6

7 of 13

9 of 18

 

It's not as bad as it seems.

 

We are streaky, so maybe we have a few more win streaks up our sleeves. We've won 9 straight, 5 straight, 4 straight twice and 3 straight three times. We've lost 3 in a row three times.

 

We knew June would be tough. We are 6-6 in June.

 

 

We're probably incapable of containing Houston and Toronto offense in Fenway. We're playing much better on the road. Only entertainment today aside from two homers, was to watch Marwin throw his moonball at 49 MPH and his two seamer at 89 MPH.

[Nick]

Give kudos to Weber. He took one for the team. I don't know he'll ever recover from today's outing. He was going to throw 100 pitches today, no matter how many homers he gave up.

[moonslav59]

Conversely you can say if Leiter can’t stay healthy or Davis strikes out too much people will be up in arms if Mayer and Lawlar pan out.

 

I hate comps, because I think they’re lazy but people are comparing those two to Xander Bogaerts.

 

As much as all the "expert sites" can't agree on what order the top 4-6 picks will be, I think it will be understandable if Bloom takes any of the consensus top 4 or 5, and if he flops, it will be hard for anyone to say he really blew the pick. If he takes someone not named Leiter, Davis, Lawlar, Mayer or Rocker, maybe.

 

BTW, MLB has this as their latest mock draft:

 

1. Mayer

2. Leiter

3. Jobe

4. Davis

5. Frelick

6. Rocker

7. Lawlar

 

Now, they have 2 of the 5 I listed going 6 and 7.

 

Jeesh!

[Hugh2]

As much as all the "expert sites" can't agree on what order the top 4-6 picks will be, I think it will be understandable if Bloom takes any of the consensus top 4 or 5, and if he flops, it will be hard for anyone to say he really blew the pick. If he takes someone not named Leiter, Davis, Lawlar, Mayer or Rocker, maybe.

 

BTW, MLB has this as their latest mock draft:

 

1. Mayer

2. Leiter

3. Jobe

4. Davis

5. Frelick

6. Rocker

7. Lawlar

 

Now, they have 2 of the 5 I listed going 6 and 7.

 

Jeesh!

 

Admittedly this is conjecture but I’m not buying guys like Frelick moving up and Lawlar falling past 5. There seems to be a lot of assumptions about “deals” being cut but I’m not sure we see so much of that this year.

 

There’s supposedly a big drop off in talent after the top tier of 5-6 guys. But overall this is a very deep draft. Think of all of those college seniors who didn’t get drafted as juniors. The senior signs will be better than any year and they have little to no leverage. Not sure how much these teams want to throw around high school talent as the class is still suffering from COVID, many of the national circuits either didn’t start back up or stared later. The scouting is still behind on those guys.

[Nick]

As much as all the "expert sites" can't agree on what order the top 4-6 picks will be, I think it will be understandable if Bloom takes any of the consensus top 4 or 5, and if he flops, it will be hard for anyone to say he really blew the pick. If he takes someone not named Leiter, Davis, Lawlar, Mayer or Rocker, maybe.

 

BTW, MLB has this as their latest mock draft:

 

1. Mayer

2. Leiter

3. Jobe

4. Davis

5. Frelick

6. Rocker

7. Lawlar

 

Now, they have 2 of the 5 I listed going 6 and 7.

 

Jeesh!

 

Bloom has good idea his 1-4 choices.

 

Lets look at it on the bright side. Earlier, they were going to combine records for two years and determine the draft order. That made absolutely no sense because teams were 'rewarded' already for their 2019 record.

[moonslav59]

Admittedly this is conjecture but I’m not buying guys like Frelick moving up and Lawlar falling past 5. There seems to be a lot of assumptions about “deals” being cut but I’m not sure we see so much of that this year.

 

There’s supposedly a big drop off in talent after the top tier of 5-6 guys. But overall this is a very deep draft. Think of all of those college seniors who didn’t get drafted as juniors. The senior signs will be better than any year and they have little to no leverage. Not sure how much these teams want to throw around high school talent as the class is still suffering from COVID, many of the national circuits either didn’t start back up or stared later. The scouting is still behind on those guys.

 

I agree on Frelick, but Jobe might be a legitimate top 4 or 5 pick. 3 seems too high, though, but what do I know?

[moonslav59]

Bloom has good idea his 1-4 choices.

 

Lets look at it on the bright side. Earlier, they were going to combine records for two years and determine the draft order. That made absolutely no sense because teams were 'rewarded' already for their 2019 record.

 

I'm sure Bloom has his top 4 in order. I doubt it changes between now and the draft, unless there is a major injury.

[Nick]

Looking at Mets roster...

 

I didn't realize how bad Francisco Lindor is playing, BA .220, OPS .667. He's only paid $22M this year. 10 Year, $341M deal starts in 2022. Ugh.

 

Also why is Cano not playing and forfeiting is 2021 salary?

[moonslav59]

2021 Numbers- highest paid players

1.090 Trout $37.1 M (146 PAs)

2.31 Cole $36M

.857 Arenado $35M

2.21 Scherzer $34.5M

.731 Machado $34M

On IL Verlander $33M

3.86 Price $32M (21 IP)

2.64 Bauer $31.3M

3.39 Kershaw $31M

.708 Pujols $30M (was DFA'd)

.582 Miggy $30M

3.68 Greinke $29.9M

.838 Altuve $29M

.844Stanton $29M (DH)

0.56 deGrom $28.1M (10 GS)

.687 Rendon $28.1M

.873 Harper $27.5M

.720 Goldschmidt $25.3M

.764 (139 PAs)Votto $25M

...

 

.656 Lindor

[Hugh2]

Pretty soon we will see the first 40 million dollar player.

 

 

 

Yeah, Bogaerts is getting paid.

[Hugh2]

It’s crazy, I remember when 20 million was a big deal. I remember when people lost their s*** and started JD Drew hating cults over 14 million.

[Larry Cook]

I think Hang’em Chaim proved via the handling of betts, that he is not going to be that guy who over pays.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I also agree that Jobe is a better prospect than Rocker and I would take Jobe over Rocker. Rocker looks like a solid middle of the rotation starter, and probably doesn't have much room to grow at this point. In contrast, Jobe can be more than that, he can be an ace, he has a higher ceiling than Rocker. As such, I would take Jobe over Rocker, knowing that I can always find a middle of the rotation starter in free agency.

 

Still, while I would take Jobe over Rocker and will be disappointed if the Red Sox take Rocker at 4, I will admit that Jobe is a riskier pick than Rocker. Rocker has a lower ceiling but a higher floor.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Looking at Mets roster...

 

I didn't realize how bad Francisco Lindor is playing, BA .220, OPS .667. He's only paid $22M this year. 10 Year, $341M deal starts in 2022. Ugh.

 

Also why is Cano not playing and forfeiting is 2021 salary?

 

I've been watching the Mets lately; Lindor is showing some signs of life at the plate. He is starting to look like his old self. His BA is now above .200 and will probably keep going up at this point. He plays a slick SS too.

 

As far as Cano goes, he had another positive PED test, his second one. If he has one more, he will be banned permanently. I suspect the Mets will release Cano in the offseason. The owner has money, and Cano was a mistake of the prior regime, the imbecile Brady Van Wagon or whatever his name was.

 

They won't admit it, but the Mets were pretty happy when Cano tested positive again--they were able to save approx. 20 million with his suspension.

 

Then again, maybe the Mets keep Cano around, hoping he fails another test? I don't know. Cano is such a loser--the Mets are better off cutting ties with him in the offseason, eating the money, and moving on. This is an organization that is pretty desperate to win another championship--they haven't won since 1986 and that is now a long time ago.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

I just can't get excited about a high school player. No offense but this board thinks 24 year olds are too inexperienced.

 

How did Ball and Groome work out, so far?

[moonslav59]

I also agree that Jobe is a better prospect than Rocker and I would take Jobe over Rocker. Rocker looks like a solid middle of the rotation starter, and probably doesn't have much room to grow at this point. In contrast, Jobe can be more than that, he can be an ace, he has a higher ceiling than Rocker. As such, I would take Jobe over Rocker, knowing that I can always find a middle of the rotation starter in free agency.

 

Still, while I would take Jobe over Rocker and will be disappointed if the Red Sox take Rocker at 4, I will admit that Jobe is a riskier pick than Rocker. Rocker has a lower ceiling but a higher floor.

 

Rocker was a consensus 1 or 2 pick, not long ago.

 

I guess he saw a dip in his velo, but reports are out that it has returned to the norm.

 

Have other shown they are better, or has something happened to make him not look so good, anymore?

[Hugh2]

Rocker was a consensus 1 or 2 pick, not long ago.

 

I guess he saw a dip in his velo, but reports are out that it has returned to the norm.

 

Have other shown they are better, or has something happened to make him not look so good, anymore?

 

His command has come and gone a bit too, never seems to happen in big games where he shows up. It seems that he’s fallen for some inconsistencies that’s a little unfair because Leiter has shown those too.

 

When on Rocker has been the most dominant pitcher in college. I wouldn’t call him a low ceiling high floor guy. His ceiling is as high as Leiters.

[moonslav59]

I just can't get excited about a high school player. No offense but this board thinks 24 year olds are too inexperienced.

 

How did Ball and Groome work out, so far?

 

I feel the same, but examples can be found, even within the Sox history that show non college picks can be winners or are currently somewhat promising:

 

202: Lester -Bellarmine Prep

2007: Anthony Rizzo- Stoneman Douglass

2008: Christian Vazquez- PR Baseball Academy

2011: Mookie Betts- Overton HS TN

2012: Ty Buttrey- Providence HS NC

2014: Michael Kopech- Mt Pleasant HS TX

2018: Triston Casas- American Hertiage FL

2019: Matthew Lugo- Beltran Academy PR

2020: Nick Yorke- Archbishop Mitty CA, Blaze Jordan DeSoto MS