A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

This is a crazy discussion for Moon.

 

We're at $205,466.167 luxury tax payroll wise, about $4.5M below the threashhold.

 

Here's a scenario.

 

Beni ($2.8M), Pedey ($13.75M), Ottavino ($7.15M), Richards ($10M), E Rod (8.3M), Perez ($5M), Barnes ($4.5M), Renfroe ($3.1M), Andriese ($1.85M) and Kike ($3M, Sox eat $4M).

 

That totals $60.6M coming off the books.

 

Richards and Perez are sign and trade candidates.

 

With $4.5 under cap, our payroll can be $149.4M for 2022, starting point.

 

Sign both Verlander and Syndergaard, for whatever money, work a deal to bring their luxury tax payroll to $25M each. Sign both Barnes and Ottavino, $15M and $8M. Arbitration raises of another $15M.

 

That brings the total starting point at $237.4M. Price and Eovaldi money comes off at end of 2022. saving of another $33M.

 

Starting Rotation Sale, Verlander, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold

Bullpen Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, couple of more young guns

Position Players 1-Duran CF 2-Verdugo RF 3 JD DH 4 Xander SS 5 Devers 3B 6 Arroyo 2B 7 Chavis LF 7 8 Dalbec 1B 9 Vaz C

 

I'd go with that lineup for the playoff chase....

[notin]

Pham can't be a good comp because he's only not the runner Duran is.

 

How about Chris Taylor?

 

Former infielder. Since 2019 has similar K/BB, top ten in BSR, good ISO (.201). Peaked at 4.8 fWAR, but has had issues with PT in a stacked Dodger lineup…

[Bellhorn04]

How about Chris Taylor?

 

Former infielder. Since 2019 has similar K/BB, top ten in BSR, good ISO (.201). Peaked at 4.8 fWAR, but has had issues with PT in a stacked Dodger lineup…

 

Taylor is T3 in PA on the 2021 Dodgers.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd go with that lineup for the playoff chase....

 

In that scenario, you're living and dying with Verlander and Syndergaard. If they rebound bigly, great. If not, you're in deep doo-doo.

[Nick]

In that scenario, you're living and dying with Verlander and Syndergaard. If they rebound bigly, great. If not, you're in deep doo-doo.

 

Yep, for sure.

 

But we've not given up any young players in the process. Our farm is intact and we should get something in return for couple of the players.

 

I'm good with 'buying' players. It's just money.

[notin]

Yep, for sure.

 

But we've not given up any young players in the process. Our farm is intact and we should get something in return for couple of the players.

 

I'm good with 'buying' players. It's just money.

 

… until spending too much prevents you from extending Devers or Verdugo or…

[Bellhorn04]

Yep, for sure.

 

But we've not given up any young players in the process. Our farm is intact and we should get something in return for couple of the players.

 

I'm good with 'buying' players. It's just money.

 

Unfortunately (perhaps) team ownership doesn't feel the same way, as we know from a certain future Hall of Famer being traded.

[notin]

Taylor is T3 in PA on the 2021 Dodgers.

 

… and has already accrued 2.1 fWAR!!

 

Third highest total on the team, just ahead of some guy named Mookie!

[Bellhorn04]

… and has already accrued 2.1 fWAR!!

 

Third highest total on the team, just ahead of some guy named Mookie!

 

He's a really good player.

[dgalehouse]

Also, they never checked the manager/valet.

 

And sometimes, the sexy valet would use her charms to distract the gullible ref. Thereby allowing her man to get away with his dirty deeds.

[mvp 78]

He’s also a better defender. But he is, when healthy, a 4-6 fWAR player…

 

Sure. I could see Duran being a 4 fWAR guy. Not sure he gets to 6, but you never know.

 

I don't think he's an upper echelon guy like Bogey, Devers and Betts were when brought up. Seems that he'd be behind those guys.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d hitch my wagon to Verlander all day long. Outside of TJS, the guy is just built differently. He’s our modern day Nolan Ryan

[mvp 78]

How about Chris Taylor?

 

Former infielder. Since 2019 has similar K/BB, top ten in BSR, good ISO (.201). Peaked at 4.8 fWAR, but has had issues with PT in a stacked Dodger lineup…

 

Decent comp.

[mvp 78]

And sometimes, the sexy valet would use her charms to distract the gullible ref. Thereby allowing her man to get away with his dirty deeds.

 

Jesse Ventura should have kept his eyes in the ring, not on Miss Elizabeth!

[iortiz]

I’d hitch my wagon to Verlander all day long. Outside of TJS, the guy is just built differently. He’s our modern day Nolan Ryan

I'd stay away off names like Verlander, Scherzer, Kluber, etc.

[notin]

Sure. I could see Duran being a 4 fWAR guy. Not sure he gets to 6, but you never know.

 

I don't think he's an upper echelon guy like Bogey, Devers and Betts were when brought up. Seems that he'd be behind those guys.

 

Another name I toyed with was Dexter Fowler. He did have a lot of mediocre seasons, however…

[jacksonianmarch]

Prior to his UCL tear in 2020, he had 12 of 13 seasons of 200IP or more.

[mvp 78]

I'd stay away off names like Verlander, Scherzer, Kluber, etc.

 

The younger arms could be: Bauer, Stroman, Gausman, but it gets uglier the further you go down.

[moonslav59]

I'd stay away off names like Verlander, Scherzer, Kluber, etc.

 

The big plus with signing much older pitchers is the length of the contract risk would be much lower, and that is what usually kills teams signing big-named players.

[mvp 78]

Jesse Ventura should have kept his eyes in the ring, not on Miss Elizabeth!

 

[dgalehouse]

Signing pitchers is always a gamble . Now , Glasnow left his start with elbow issues. Not too many are immune from these sort of things.

[notin]

The big plus with signing much older pitchers is the length of the contract risk would be much lower, and that is what usually kills teams signing big-named players.

 

While good, sometimes you find yourself paying for Justin Verlander but getting Justin Masterson…

[notin]

The younger arms could be: Bauer, Stroman, Gausman, but it gets uglier the further you go down.

 

Jon Gray outside of Coors might be worthwhile…

[notin]

Prior to his UCL tear in 2020, he had 12 of 13 seasons of 200IP or more.

 

Prior to his UCL tear in 2020, he was also 37 years old…

[moonslav59]

This is a crazy discussion for Moon.

 

We're at $205,466.167 luxury tax payroll wise, about $4.5M below the threashhold.

 

Here's a scenario.

 

Beni ($2.8M), Pedey ($13.75M), Ottavino ($7.15M), Richards ($10M), E Rod (8.3M), Perez ($5M), Barnes ($4.5M), Renfroe ($3.1M), Andriese ($1.85M) and Kike ($3M, Sox eat $4M).

 

That totals $60.6M coming off the books.

 

Richards and Perez are sign and trade candidates.

 

With $4.5 under cap, our payroll can be $149.4M for 2022, starting point.

 

Sign both Verlander and Syndergaard, for whatever money, work a deal to bring their luxury tax payroll to $25M each. Sign both Barnes and Ottavino, $15M and $8M. Arbitration raises of another $15M.

 

That brings the total starting point at $237.4M. Price and Eovaldi money comes off at end of 2022. saving of another $33M.

 

Starting Rotation Sale, Verlander, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold

Bullpen Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, couple of more young guns

Position Players 1-Duran CF 2-Verdugo RF 3 JD DH 4 Xander SS 5 Devers 3B 6 Arroyo 2B 7 Chavis LF 7 8 Dalbec 1B 9 Vaz C

 

I'd go with that lineup for the playoff chase....

 

There is a lot to digest, here.

 

First, the $4.5M we are under, this year. If we are still in the race come the middle to end of July, we can try to trade for some sort of salary dump(s) without losing anything too promising. I have mentioned trading Chavis and/or someone like Groome or Ward. Since the incoming player's salary is pre-rated, the cost is roughly 1/3 of their season contract. In Lux tax dollars, that could mean we could trade for someone like:

 

Danny Duffy ($13M/3= $4.3M)

Brad Hand ($10M/3=$3.3M)

Pineda ($10M/3=$3.3M) Currently on IL

Kikuchi ($14M x 2/3= $4.7M for 2021) We'd need to dump $200K somehow.

Will Smith ($13.3M/3- $4.4M for 2021)

Adam Frazier ($4.3M/3= $1.4M) Could be added with someone else

(Gregory Polanco -$11.6M/3= $3.9M) is not someone I want, but if we took him with Frazier, we'd only need Pitt to pay $850K of $5.35M to stay under, and the return would not have to be as much.)

 

Too much would be wanted in return:

Trevor Story ($13.8M/3= $4.6M) Money could work.

Starling Marte ($12.5M/3= $4.2M) Money is perfect, but they'd want top prospects

 

 

To get Scherzer ($26.7M/3= $8.9M), we'd need WSH to pay about half what is owed him. That would mean we'd have to give way more than Chais, Groome & Ward. That's not enough, if we paid the full boat plus more cash.

 

Freddie Freeman ($16.9M/3 = $5.7M) would put us over, too, but not by much.

Charlie Morton ($15M/3= $5M) is very close.

 

Maybe we trade for Adam Frazier ($1.4M)and Brad Hand ($3.3M), and find a way to shed $250K or so. Frazier can play 2B & OF.

 

I'll address 2022 in my next post.

[moonslav59]

While good, sometimes you find yourself paying for Justin Verlander but getting Justin Masterson…

 

Oh, I know the risk of failure is higher, but it's those 7 year deals that kill us (and others).

[mvp 78]

Jon Gray outside of Coors might be worthwhile…

 

His numbers away from Coors aren't much better (sometimes worse like this year) than at home.

[moonslav59]

Signing pitchers is always a gamble . Now , Glasnow left his start with elbow issues. Not too many are immune from these sort of things.

 

Losing Glasnow could really hurt the Rays.

[Nick]

I'll address 2022 in my next post.

 

My post was about 2022. Instead of going from 0 baseline, I like to start with current year numbers and then add and subtract. This way I don't miss much.

 

In addition to Price ($16M) and Eovaldi ($17M), JD ($22M) and possibly Xander ($20M) will come off the books at the end of 2022. That's $72M total.

[Bellhorn04]

Prior to his UCL tear in 2020, he had 12 of 13 seasons of 200IP or more.

 

He's a great one, but age gets everyone.

 

I thought Smoltz was going to do well for us in 2009. Fortunately the gamble didn't cost us much.