A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Larry Cook]

I never actually paid Santana any attention before this season, but I wonder if his issues are caused by:

A.) timing being off

B.) the slowing of his bat speed

 

If the answer is a, maybe we give him more time,

 

If the answer is b, then it is time to send him packing.

[Nick]

I would (1) promote Duran and send Dalbec to AAA. (2) I would give the starting 1b job to Santana. He gets a month (or so) to prove he deserves the job. I would like to see what Santana can do with consistent playing time. If he continues to suck, the Red Sox need to trade for a starting first baseman at the trade deadline.

 

I will pass emphatically on a guy batting .104 with OPS of .460. We're in a pennant race.

[moonslav59]

I will pass emphatically on a guy batting .104 with OPS of .460. We're in a pennant race.

 

I responded to your 2022 post. Not sure if you saw it.

[moonslav59]

AL Records

43-25 TBR

42-25 CWS

41-27 BOS #1 WC

41-27 OAK

38-28 HOU -2.0 from #1 WC

36-28 CLE -1.0 from #2 WC

34-32 NYY -4.0

33-32 TOR -4.5

33-33 LAA -5.0

 

NL

41-25 SFG

40-26 LAD #1 WC

34-25 NYM

38-29 Cubs

38-29 MIL T #2 WC and Central div

38-31 SDP -1.0 from #2 WC

34-31 CIN -3.0

34-33 STL -4.0

32-32 PHI -4.5

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

I know you asked about 2022, but since this thread is about 2021, I started with that area, first. I did not go into the fact that we may be sellers at the deadline and how that might affect the 2022 outlook.

 

I guess we go on the assumption we take the options on Richards, Vaz and Perez, but maybe not Andriese, who would make $3.5M, next year. Assume no on him. . I don't like to go by what we drop in salary, since arb raises can and will be substantial, this winter.

 

Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3.

Renfroe 3 of 4

Plawecki 4 of 4

Brasier 2 of 3

Cordero 2 of 3

and all these players first timers:

Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor, Brennan & Chavis

 

I'll assume JD stays at $22M and does not opt out.

 

Here are my numbers, including the 3 options taken (in Lux $):

 

25 Sale

22 JD (no opt out or renegotiation)

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

10 Richards (option)

7.0 Kike

7.0 Vaz (option)

6.0 Perez (option)

 

That's a base of $114M

 

I'm no expert on arbs, but let's assume:

$7M from $4.58M) Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3.

$5M (from $3.1M) Renfroe 3 of 4

$2M (from $1.6M) Plawecki 4 of 4

$1.5M (from $1.25M) Brasier 2 of 3

$1.0M (from $800K)Cordero 2 of 3

$4.0M Verdugo, 1 of 3

$3.5M Pivetta, 1 of 3

$2.0M Arroyo, 1 of 3

$1.5M Taylor, 1of 4,

$800K Brennan, 1of 3

$800K Chavis, 1 of 4

 

The arbs add about $29.5M plus $2.5M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $16M for player benefits and the total before replacing or adding anyone is:

 

$162M

 

If we can spend up to the first tax line (assuming it's the same $210M) we will have $48M to spend. If we can spend up to the second line, it's $68M.

 

I'm not going to name any names except I think maybe we try to bring Barnes back.

 

The big need areas, to me, are (with projected cost via free agency):

 

#1-2 SP ($15-30M/yr) Losinng ERod this winter and are adding Sale in 2021. (Could add Houck/Whitlock)

Closer ($10-18M) Losing Barnes (No closer in the system unless Ort turns a miracle)

Set-Up ($5-10M) Losing Ottavino (no clear #2 RP'er in the system)

1B, 2B, OF ($5-20M) Losing Marwin (Duran, Casas, Downs?)

RP'er ($3-7M) Losing Andriese (Bazardo/Seabold/ converted SP'er assuming all SP'er healthy)

 

That's $38M minimum and maybe $78M maximim. I doubt we spen more than $68M, so we can't get the best at every position of need. More likely, we will plan on in system options to cover 1B, 2B and or CF and go cheap there. We might sign just 2 RP'er not 3. We may sign a #3 SP'er not a #1-2 type, which may depend on how Sale looks, this year.

 

We have a great chance to improve upon this current roster.

Barnes will be tough to extend, re-sign or replace.

Ottavino is pitching to his contract value, so that should be about push.

ERod looked very hard to replace before seeing him in 2021, so far. We still need to fill his slot, but right now, he's pitching like a 4 or 5 (maybe even a 6), but to improve, we need to replace him with a 1 or 2, IMO. That should be our top priority, and if we only have $48M to spend, we might spend $30M on an ace and $18M on a closer and count on our system to fill out the depth issues.

 

It should be an interesting winter.

 

 

 

Good Analysis.

 

I don't think you have the $15-$16M for David Price.

 

I have sign and trade for both Richards and Perez. That will offset David Price money.

 

I'm also going over the tax line significantly for 2022 for adding the second 'ace' type.

 

We've always agreed that in order to strengthen starting rotation is to get #1 type and slot everyone else one spot below.

 

I'm assuming Sale is coming back to his old self.

 

I'm assuming CF, 1B and 2B will be filled internally.

 

I'm clearing out everyone so we can have 2 #1 types.

 

We clear out some of the money issue for 2023 when Price money goes away, Eovaldi's $17M is gone and replaced internally and JD's $22M is gone and replaced internally. Some of that money can be used to extend Devers, Xander and pay for further arbitration increases.

 

I'm counting on Bloom to acquire and develop talent for internal replacements. That's what he does well.

 

We'll always be competitive with healthy Sale, Verlander and Syndergaard. That's a group I'd go to war with.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

It’s a question a lot of people have been asking for a while including myself.

 

I've been thinking about this.

 

I believe that Cora strongly wants our 4 studs hitting in a row. But he doesn't like the idea of them hitting 1-4, because that makes the lineup even more top-heavy than it is now.

 

The problem is that we don't have a suitable leadoff hitter. Verdugo could be one, sure, but Cora may be right that's he an even better #2 hitter.

[moonslav59]

Good Analysis.

 

I don't think you have the $15-$16M for David Price.

I knew I was forgetting something big.

 

I have sign and trade for both Richards and Perez. That will offset David Price money.

They are team options, not really "signings," but we can't lose ERod, Richards and Perez all at once. I know you feel we can improve on all 3, but Richards & Perez both have reasonable option year costs, and we need to keep good contracts, so we can afford to spend where needed. Plus, I don't see how we can afford to sign 1-3 pitchers, hope Sale/Whitlock/Houck fill the other slot(s) and also add 2-3 solid pen arms on the budget we have. It's not impossible, but we'd have to be right on nearly every signing.

 

I'm also going over the tax line significantly for 2022 for adding the second 'ace' type.

I think we go $10-19.9M over the first tax line.

 

We've always agreed that in order to strengthen starting rotation is to get #1 type and slot everyone else one spot below.

We can't afford to do that every year, but this winter seems like perfect timing, except for the fact that there is no clear cut solid ace at a reasonable age. Still, we should do it.

 

I'm assuming Sale is coming back to his old self.

Or, 90%.

 

I'm assuming CF, 1B and 2B will be filled internally.

Then we should leave a few million for an in-season addition, since it is likely all three will be a plus all year.

 

I'm clearing out everyone so we can have 2 #1 types.

This is probably the best plan. Even Barnes has priced himself out of a return.

 

We clear out some of the money issue for 2023 when Price money goes away, Eovaldi's $17M is gone and replaced internally and JD's $22M is gone and replaced internally. One of those can be used to extend Devers.

I'm sure we can replace Eovaldi, but replacing JD's bat with who? Casas? That's a huge what if?

 

We'll always be competitive with healthy Sale, Verlander and Syndergaard. That's a group that can win a playoff series.

All three are big ifs. In system answers are too.

I like our system, but we have to plan on some of tehse guys not working out.

The good part is, we have multiple options at every position, although the OF options look thin.

 

1B: Dalbec/Chavis, Casas

2B: Arroyo/Kike, Downs

OF: (Verdugo & Renfroe) Kike/Cordero, Duran

Farther down the road: Potts/Jordan, Yorke/Lugo, Jimenez/Rosario, F Valdez

 

Pitching, as always, is a bit sketchier:

Whilock & Houck and then what?

Seabold & a bunch of TJ surgery hopefuls (Mata, Ward & Groome), a Song and a prayer (Bello?)

Farther down the road: Aldo Ramirez

 

Then, there is the catching position, a slot with very few obvious plus players out there- let alone available:

Ronaldo Hernandez, Wong, Herrmann, Kole Cottam?

 

We still have some high need areas, and some we don't even know about yet.

This was supposed to be the year we got some answers by being able to determine, once-and-for-all, if guys like Chavis, Dalbec, Cordero, Arroyo and others could cut it or not.

Winning so much has actually hurt our ability to throw players out there to see who can stick.

[Nick]

I've been thinking about this.

 

I believe that Cora strongly wants our 4 studs hitting in a row. But he doesn't like the idea of them hitting 1-4, because that makes the lineup even more top-heavy than it is now.

 

The problem is that we don't have a suitable leadoff hitter. Verdugo could be one, sure, but Cora may be right that's he an even better #2 hitter.

 

I don't get where Cora thinks Verdugo would not hit as well leading off. I bet you $100 that he's lead off more than any other #2 hitter in the league due to our #1 1)not getting on base in 1st inning 2)making the third out.

 

He is essentially leading off.

 

How can we be anymore top heavy? If anything % of Verdugo getting up for 5th time will definitely increase. It certainly won't go down.

 

Mathematically what he says is BS.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't get where Cora thinks Verdugo would not hit as well leading off. I bet you $100 that he's lead off more than any other #2 hitter in the league due to our #1 1)not getting on base in 1st inning 2)making the third out.

 

He is essentially leading off.

 

How can we be anymore top heavy? If anything % of Verdugo getting up for 5th time will definitely increase. It certainly won't go down.

 

Mathematically what he says is BS.

 

On pure math, it's been shown that your best hitter should hit second, and you should not have one of your best hitters hitting third.

 

Managers obviously do not buy into the pure math. I can't fully explain the decision-making, but I trust Cora. He is with these guys and talking to them every day.

[moonslav59]

I've been thinking about this.

 

I believe that Cora strongly wants our 4 studs hitting in a row. But he doesn't like the idea of them hitting 1-4, because that makes the lineup even more top-heavy than it is now.

 

The problem is that we don't have a suitable leadoff hitter. Verdugo could be one, sure, but Cora may be right that's he an even better #2 hitter.

 

The #2 slot is supposed to be your best overall hitter, according to modern analytics, so I'm fine with keeping one of our top 4 batting 2nd.

 

The only real choice I see is Arroyo vs Kike at lead off. I don't see a third option, unless and until Duran is called up and proves he can get on base vs ML pitching. Since Kike is probably our second best option, IMO, it's not a horrific choice by Cora to go with the guy with a longer track record in MLB.

 

Arroyo has looked better, this year, but the sample sizes are still too small to use as predictors of what is too come.

 

We talk a lot about the bottom of the order having too many "black holes," and how we can't win without fixing that issue, but look around the whole league: nearly every team, even the best of the best have 2-3 hitters under .700 or even under .650.

 

We also hear about how we can't really hope for anything better from the non top 4 hitters, but I contend that we don't really need greatness- just a return to norm or near norm numbers:

 

Current OPS/ Career OPS (Recent years' OPS)

.648/.695 (.795 2019-2020) Vaz 50-150 points

.650/.729 (.749 2018-2020) Kike 75-100 points

.756/.774 (.776 career before 2021 & .772 '18-'20) Renfroe 25-30 points

.656/.749 (.867 minors) Dalbec maybe 50-100 points

.501/.678 (.737 career before 2021) Franchy 100-200+ points

 

Let's say all these guys, combined, all get halfway back to their norm or recent norm (before 2021), we'd be talking about OPS gains of...

 

 

50 for Vaz

45 for Kike

10 for Renfroe

and maybe 50-75 for Dalbec & Cordero, who both had small sample sizes before 2021.

 

I know the whole league is down, and if all these guys did add to their current OPS, maybe the rest of the league would, too, but there is still hope our bottom 4-5 can improve in a significant way without needing any outlier situation.

 

Note: I did not mention Arroyo, as he is doing better than his career norm.

[Nick]

On pure math, it's been shown that your best hitter should hit second, and you should not have one of your best hitters hitting third.

 

Managers obviously do not buy into the pure math. I can't fully explain the decision-making, but I trust Cora. He is with these guys and talking to them every day.

 

If that's true, then JD who is probably our best hitter would be batting second.

 

I think this is a topic that can never be resolved.

 

Cora is a very good manager and I wouldn't trade him for another.

 

I think I'm more frustrated with his explanation more than anything else. I rather him tell a reporter, I'm the manager and this is my lineup. Furck off.

[moonslav59]

I don't get where Cora thinks Verdugo would not hit as well leading off. I bet you $100 that he's lead off more than any other #2 hitter in the league due to our #1 1)not getting on base in 1st inning 2)making the third out.

 

He is essentially leading off.

 

How can we be anymore top heavy? If anything % of Verdugo getting up for 5th time will definitely increase. It certainly won't go down.

 

Mathematically what he says is BS.

 

I don't think it's about Verdugo not being a good lead-off hitter. I think it's about the 2 slot being more important and "lengthening" the line-up by not putting our top 4 hitters 1-2-3-4.

 

Modern theory states your 4 best hitters should hit something like 2, 5, 4, 1 and the 3 slot should be your 5th best hitter.

 

Old school theory has the 3 slot as one of or the most important slot in the line-up.

 

Maybe the modern theory would see this:

 

Verdugo

Bogey

Renfroe

JD

Devers

 

Traditional, this:

Verdugo

Arroyo/Kike (contact hitter)

Bogey

Devers

JD

Renfroe

 

[moonslav59]

If that's true, then JD who is probably our best hitter would be batting second.

 

I think this is a topic that can never be resolved.

 

Cora is a very good manager and I wouldn't trade him for another.

 

I think I'm more frustrated with his explanation more than anything else. I rather him tell a reporter, I'm the manager and this is my lineup. Furck off.

 

I'm not sure JD is our best hitter. That might be a close race between Bogey & Devers.

[Hugh2]

If that's true, then JD who is probably our best hitter will bat second.

 

I think this is a topic that can never be resolved.

 

Cora is a very good manager and I wouldn't trade him for another.

 

I think I'm more frustrated with his explanation more than anything else. I rather him tell a reporter, I'm the manager and this is my lineup. Furck off.

 

There are many who say you should bat your best overall hitter second. I share your opinion, I love Cora but I'm not happy with the leadoff issue. Still wouldn't trade him for another manager but I wish he would try something different there.

 

He doesn't want to hurt production in the middle of the lineup? the #1 hitter is going to see more at-bats than anyone else so why put a guy there who isn't that great? I get that you suffer a little in the middle by moving a guy like Verdugo into the #1 hole, but you gain that back at the top of your lineup.

[mvp 78]

I've been thinking about this.

 

I believe that Cora strongly wants our 4 studs hitting in a row. But he doesn't like the idea of them hitting 1-4, because that makes the lineup even more top-heavy than it is now.

 

The problem is that we don't have a suitable leadoff hitter. Verdugo could be one, sure, but Cora may be right that's he an even better #2 hitter.

 

After the first inning, does it really matter about being top heavy?

[Hugh2]

Problem is if you buy into that and put Bogaerts second who leads off? I'm a firm believer in putting a high OBP guy, but here are our leaders for OBP:

 

Bogaerts

JDM

Verdugo

Devers

 

That's literally 4 guys you don't want leading off because there power plays up better in the 2-5 positions, but look there's no silver bullet for this problem outside of acquiring outside talent. So just for argument's sake, I'll go with this lineup.

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

JDM

Devers

Renfroe

Dalbec

Vasquez

Arroyo

Kike

 

I thought about keeping Dalbec lower, but his OPS is actually higher than Vas, and Kike and he's been hitting very well lately. I like Kike #9 because it gives you someone with a little bit more consistency to hit in front of Verdugo 2nd time through.

[moonslav59]

After the first inning, does it really matter about being top heavy?

 

Just in terms of who gets more PAs.

[moonslav59]

Problem is if you buy into that and put Bogaerts second who leads off? I'm a firm believer in putting a high OBP guy, but here are our leaders for OBP:

 

Bogaerts

JDM

Verdugo

Devers

 

That's literally 4 guys you don't want leading off because there power plays up better in the 2-5 positions, but look there's no silver bullet for this problem outside of acquiring outside talent. So just for argument's sake, I'll go with this lineup.

 

Verdugo

Bogaerts

JDM

Devers

Renfroe

Dalbec

Vasquez

Arroyo

Kike

 

I thought about keeping Dalbec lower, but his OPS is actually higher than Vas, and Kike and he's been hitting very well lately. I like Kike #9 because it gives you someone with a little bit more consistency to hit in front of Verdugo 2nd time through.

 

Having power in the one slot is nice, too, and it worked with Betts.

 

Late in games, with the bottom of the order up, you always have that hope that one for the bottom 3 get on and the lead-off guy can homer to tie it or take the lead.

[notin]

I will pass emphatically on a guy batting .104 with OPS of .460. We're in a pennant race.

 

Internal solutions should happen first, since those can be undone if they don't work. But if the Sox want to upgrade the offense at 1B, I still think revisiting moving Devers there should be an option.

 

This team might have their biggest weakness on defense. Many defensive stats support this, as do the Fielding Independent Pitching stats. I was thinking a defensive CF would make sense, but most metrics do actually have Enrique Hernandez as one of the better defensive CF's in MLB. Just leave him there.

 

SS is another issue, but the Sox cannot afford to move Bogaerts, as he apparently has been reluctant to move to 3B, which is a problem. So assuming that still stands (he doesn't return my texts), then moving Devers to 1B and getting a solid defensive 3B might make sense as a deadline acquisition. I'll highlight Kyle Seager as one potential target. as he does fare well on most defensive metrics, and certainly does better than Devers, who does not.. BTV gives Seager a trade value of 0, so if the Sox take his salary (pro-rated $18.5mill this year, $15-20mill team option for 2022), he should be easily available for just about anyone in the Sox minor league system. In this scenario, Devers is fine with changing positions. We've all had this discussion with him.

 

And obviously, pitching....

[Bellhorn04]

After the first inning, does it really matter about being top heavy?

 

Well, the sequence of the order never changes, obviously. But statistically speaking, I can't answer it.

 

I know that Kimmi has read all the research on lineups, and the big takeaway is that aside from having your best hitters in the top part of the lineup, the most important thing is having guys in the spots they're comfortable in. Psychological stuff, I guess.

 

I remember one year when Ellsbury was struggling, Tito tried Pedroia and Drew at leadoff. They both stunk and both said they hated it. It was a little weird, but that's the way it was.

[mvp 78]

Just in terms of who gets more PAs.

 

And wouldn't you want Devers at 5 to have more AB's than Kiké at 1?

[mvp 78]

Well, the sequence of the order never changes, obviously. But statistically speaking, I can't answer it.

 

I know that Kimmi has read all the research on lineups, and the big takeaway is that aside from having your best hitters in the top part of the lineup, the most important thing is having guys in the spots they're comfortable in. Psychological stuff, I guess.

 

I remember one year when Ellsbury was struggling, Tito tried Pedroia and Drew at leadoff. They both stunk and both said they hated it. It was a little weird, but that's the way it was.

 

I 100% believe in the psychological factor. However, I think Verdugo was fine at leadoff last year. I think it's weird he's not there this year.

[Bellhorn04]

And wouldn't you want Devers at 5 to have more AB's than Kiké at 1?

 

Because you also want Devers coming up with more guys on base, et cetera.

[mvp 78]

Because you also want Devers coming up with more guys on base, et cetera.

 

Kiké is good at getting on base now?

 

My switch isn't moving Devers to 1, but just sliding everyone up one spot.

[notin]

Well, the sequence of the order never changes, obviously. But statistically speaking, I can't answer it.

 

I know that Kimmi has read all the research on lineups, and the big takeaway is that aside from having your best hitters in the top part of the lineup, the most important thing is having guys in the spots they're comfortable in. Psychological stuff, I guess.

 

I remember one year when Ellsbury was struggling, Tito tried Pedroia and Drew at leadoff. They both stunk and both said they hated it. It was a little weird, but that's the way it was.

 

That's the thing about leading off. I think a hitter has to actually want that role.

 

Even my daughter has told me she hates leading off, because she would rather be in the on deck circle to see what the opposing pitching is actually throwing during games. I have to imagine MLB hitters - far more attentive to detail than an 8th grader - also like to have a chance to watch the opposing pitcher against an actual hitter to get timing down, see what the pitches are, etc...

[moonslav59]

And wouldn't you want Devers at 5 to have more AB's than Kiké at 1?

 

I think the 5 slot is perfect for Devers. My second choice for him would be 4th or 2nd.

 

I'd be fine with...

 

Verdugo

Bogey

Renfroe

JD

Devers

 

or

 

Verdugo

Bogey

Devers

JD

Renfroe

 

but the 5 slot is very important, and that's a big drop off (Devers to Renfroe).

[iortiz]

As I said in the last game thread this Cora's kike-whim nonsense at leadoff has to stop. Put Arroyo there for once and for all.

 

Also Kike shouldn't play everyday. He is not an everyday player. He has never been.

Edited June 16, 2021 by iortiz

[iortiz]

I think the 5 slot is perfect for Devers. My second choice for him would be 4th or 2nd.

 

I'd be fine with...

 

Verdugo

Bogey

Renfroe

JD

Devers

 

or

 

Verdugo

Bogey

Devers

JD

Renfroe

 

but the 5 slot is very important, and that's a big drop off (Devers to Renfroe).

 

I like Renfroe but he is not a 3rd bat. Not yet. He is a 5-6 bat in my book. The second lineup is the best way to go IMO.

[moonslav59]

I like Renfroe but he is not a 3rd bat. Not yet. He is a 5-6 bat in my book. The second lineup is the best way to go IMO.

 

I’m more old school when it comes to line-ups and was very surprised to find out the 3rd slot was the 5th most important line up slot.

[Nick]

Had we signed Betts to 10 YR $400M deal, we would not be having this discussion about the leadoff hitter.