A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Also, since Gonsalves has gone with an opener, he's thrown 10 Innings with 0 ER. That doesn't scream out as "been shelled, recently."

 

Gossett was lit up last time out and has not followed an opener yet.

 

I wasn't thinking of using either as an "opener" or a pitcher going after an "opener," but you are right about Gonsalves not being shelled recently.

[moonslav59]

With 2 days off in the next 5 days, our starters can get some extra rest, or we can skip a start by someone and or allow Eovaldi to jump someone else's start.

 

I'm not sure how much longer we can stick with some of these guys.

 

At least we still get 4 or more IP for all but Perez's starts ...

 

In reverse order:

 

IP Runs (not ER) Pitcher

4.0 -6 Richards

4.0 -4 ERod

6.2 -0 Eovaldi

1.1 -5 Perez

5.0 -6 Pivetta

5.1 -4 Richards

4.2 -6 ERod

5.2 -5 Eovaldi

2.0 -6 Perez

 

[Nick]

With 2 days off in the next 5 days, our starters can get some extra rest, or we can skip a start by someone and or allow Eovaldi to jump someone else's start.

 

I'm not sure how much longer we can stick with some of these guys.

 

At least we still get 4 or more IP for all but Perez's starts ...

 

In reverse order:

 

IP Runs (not ER) Pitcher

4.0 -6 Richards

4.0 -4 ERod

6.2 -0 Eovaldi

1.1 -5 Perez

5.0 -6 Pivetta

5.1 -4 Richards

4.2 -6 ERod

5.2 -5 Eovaldi

2.0 -6 Perez

 

 

It's hard to believe hardly anyone COMPLETES seven innings.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to believe hardly anyone COMPLETES seven innings.

 

They hardly ever even get into or finish 6, anymore.

 

That being said, our starters rank 8th in IP, this year with 360.1 in 69 games.

 

That's about 5 and a third per start, so I guess we've gone into the 6th quite often- just not lately.

Edited June 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

...

[Kimmi]

I 100% believe in the psychological factor. However, I think Verdugo was fine at leadoff last year. I think it's weird he's not there this year.

 

I am 100% on board with Verdugo leading off. I have been against Kike batting leadoff since Cora first mentioned it in spring training. That said, I trust Cora, and because the team is winning and our offense is pretty good, I have given Cora the benefit of the doubt.

 

If it were up to me, my top 5 would be Verdugo, Bogaerts, Beni (whoops), JD, Devers. I would be okay with switching Verdugo, Bogaerts, JD, and Devers around in any of those 4 spots. I know that Cora likes having the 2-5 guys the way he has them, but I really think having a higher OBP guy leading off would do the team more good than harm, even it it 'weakens' the other line up spots.

[Kimmi]

Had we signed Betts to 10 YR $400M deal, we would not be having this discussion about the leadoff hitter.

 

Verdugo @ $650K is much, much greater than Mookie @ $30M.

 

We should not even be having discussions about Mookie any more.

 

We have Mookie's offense covered by Verdugo and his defense covered by Renfroe.

[Kimmi]

Another tidbit on leadoff hitters.

 

The pesky Rays have climbed to 7th in runs scored in MLB.

 

Their manager Cash is probably one of the stat-nerdiest of all managers.

 

In recent games his leadoff hitter has been Margot, who has an OBP of .283.

 

The fact of the matter is, a manager could pull his line up out of a hat every game and barely miss a beat.

 

That's how little difference batting orders make.

 

All of the hand wringing over lineups, myself included, is pretty much for naught.

[moonslav59]

The fact of the matter is, a manager could pull his line up out of a hat every game and barely miss a beat.

 

That's how little difference batting orders make.

 

All of the hand wringing over lineups, myself included, is pretty much for naught.

 

Sometimes it's also about which 9 to play.

[Kimmi]

This team really needs a day off.

 

Well deserved day off, for sure.

 

The Sox came through that tough stretch of 17 games pretty well.

 

Some of the wins weren't very pretty, but they were wins nonetheless.

[Kimmi]

The problem is that everyone inside the game knew that pitchers were using sticky stuff for a long time. What happened is that the sticky stuff science got a little too good. That's when Manfred decided something had to be done.

 

Also worth noting that they changed the baseballs again this year, which seems to have also increased the spin rates. Attaboy, Rob!

 

I wouldn't be surprised if what we end up with is some sort of pre-approved lower-tech sticky stuff. In the meantime, it's a fustercluck.

 

100%.

[Kimmi]

The Jays looked scary when they shelled us in Games 2 and 3 of the last series. Since then they've lost 3 in a row and are back to .500.

 

This is one crazy freaking game.

 

The Jays have really disappointed me in this Yankees series.

[Kimmi]

We have to get to work on the pre-approved sticky stuff. Will it be doled out to pitchers in little tins before they enter the game?

 

It seems to me that sunscreen plus rosin might be a decent solution?

[Kimmi]

The Jays have really disappointed me in this Yankees series.

 

OMG Jays, what are you doing?

[Kimmi]

As I said when he was in WOO, Workman is a reclamation project. Try to hide him, but I don't think an extended look will fix anything for him.

 

His Statcast resembles 2020, not 2019. Not good. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-workman-519443?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

People are pulling him and barreling the ball.

 

Workman's 2019 was somewhat fueled by luck. He was bound to regress, though I'm surprised at the degree of his regression.

[Kimmi]

Sometimes it's also about which 9 to play.

 

It's more about which 9 to play than it is about which order to bat them in.

[moonslav59]

It's more about which 9 to play than it is about which order to bat them in.

 

Forget any factors about getting up with men on base or not, the #1 guy getting up to 150 more PAs than the #9 guy has to be significant.

 

If we batted our 4 best hitters 6-9 and our worst 4 hitters 1-2-3-4, we're talking about swinging over 500 PAs from our best (.800-1.000) to our worst (.480-.680).

 

[Nick]

Verdugo @ $650K is much, much greater than Mookie @ $30M.

 

We should not even be having discussions about Mookie any more.

 

We have Mookie's offense covered by Verdugo and his defense covered by Renfroe.

 

That was in jest. Please don't take me seriously. I'm here to entertain myself.

[Larry Cook]

Do we have any interest in trading for the pirates lead off hitter Frazier to put at the top of our lineup and solve the hole at 2nd base?

[moonslav59]

Do we have any interest in trading for the pirates lead off hitter Frazier to put at the top of our lineup and solve the hole at 2nd base?

 

Arroyo is not a hole.

 

We need pitching, pitching, pitching and maybe a 1Bman or OF'er before 2B.

[SoxHop]

I fully expect Barnes to fall off the map with this stoppage of sticky stuff.

 

Anyone have his spin rate comparisons compared to years before.

 

He's a decent reliever and always has been, much better than the grief he has taken.

 

But he never had the bend it and "bounce it on the ground and the batter swings" stuff he has this year.

[notin]

I fully expect Barnes to fall off the map with this stoppage of sticky stuff.

 

Anyone have his spin rate comparisons compared to years before.

 

He's a decent reliever and always has been, much better than the grief he has taken.

 

But he never had the bend it and "bounce it on the ground and the batter swings" stuff he has this year.

 

Well, this guy doesn’t agree with you.

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2021/06/10/red-sox-lets-stop-assuming-every-pitcher-using-sticky-stuff/

[notin]

Arroyo is not a hole.

 

We need pitching, pitching, pitching and maybe a 1Bman or OF'er before 2B.

 

Pitching and defense. Everyone needs pitching. Boston needs people who can field, as well.

 

Dalbec can be demoted or traded. This team has a few people who can handle first.

 

Also, I’m really coming around on Kike as full time CF. I’m fine with Arroyo at 2b. I had some questions about him before the season. He’s done a great job answering them…

[SoxHop]

Well, this guy doesn’t agree with you.

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2021/06/10/red-sox-lets-stop-assuming-every-pitcher-using-sticky-stuff/

 

Nice side step to the question.

 

Have you ever seen Barnes bounce breaking balls for strikes this year?

 

I'm not sure where to find spin rate stats. I'm like Barnes biggest fan cause his one of the RP who everyone likes to s*** on and he's been a super positive for us. But he hasn't and probably isn't no Mariano until this year. Which makes me think.....

[SoxHop]

From the article.

 

Matt Barnes is a two-pitch pitcher – fastball and curve. He has a fastball spin rate in the 61st percentile, similar to where it’s been for most of his career, while his curve is only in the 12th percentile. A sudden increase in spin rate obviously isn’t the reason for the career-year the Red Sox closer is producing.

 

I'm still a sceptic.

[moonslav59]

 

Dalbec can be demoted or traded. This team has a few people who can handle first.

 

 

Who?

 

.576 Marwin?

 

.460 Santana?

 

Call-up.501 Cordero & move .650 Kike to 1B?

 

I guess .758 Chavis is an option, but Dalbec has a better OPS than that over his last 11 games.

 

Ockimey?

 

Casas?

[notin]

From the article.

 

Matt Barnes is a two-pitch pitcher – fastball and curve. He has a fastball spin rate in the 61st percentile, similar to where it’s been for most of his career, while his curve is only in the 12th percentile. A sudden increase in spin rate obviously isn’t the reason for the career-year the Red Sox closer is producing.

 

I'm still a sceptic.

 

Fagnraphs touched on that earlir this year.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-barnes-one-simple-trick/

 

But a lot of fans see a player improve or have a career year, and the assumption is cheating. A lot of times, the difference between a career year and a normal year just isn't as big as many think...

[notin]

Who?

 

.576 Marwin?

 

.460 Santana?

 

Call-up.501 Cordero & move .650 Kike to 1B?

 

I guess .758 Chavis is an option, but Dalbec has a better OPS than that over his last 11 games.

 

Ockimey?

 

Casas?

 

Gonzalez, Chavis, Hernandez, Vazquez, Munoz, and the guy I'd like to see go there - Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec is a project for the 2021 season. I expect he'll see it through unless the bottom really falls out.

[moonslav59]

Fagnraphs touched on that earlir this year.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-barnes-one-simple-trick/

 

But a lot of fans see a player improve or have a career year, and the assumption is cheating. A lot of times, the difference between a career year and a normal year just isn't as big as many think...

 

Very insightful.