A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

We do also have the option of 60 day IL'ing Potts, but here's my current DFA-trade list:

 

1. Santana

2. Workman

3. Wilson

4. Brennan

 

The following could probably be traded not DFA'd

5. Chavis

6. Arauz

7. Andriese

 

Certainly traded not DFA'd:

8. Potts

9. Wong

10. Cordero/Groome

 

Let's assume the top 6 on this list are replaced by this winter's Rule 5 protectees:

 

Jarren Duran

Jeter Downs

Gilberto Jimenez

Josh Winckowski

Brayan Bello

Thaddeus Ward

(Maybe Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed and or Frank German)

 

Then, we re-sign or replace the free agents-to-be:

 

SP ERod

RP Barnes

RP Ottavino

UT Marwin

 

Maybe JD Martinez (opt out?)

 

For argument's sake, let's say JD & Barnes stay and we fill the other two slots with two big signings- something like two from...

 

SP Syndergaard, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, L Lynn, Gausman, ERod

RP Kenley Jansen, T Rosenthal

1B Anthony Rizzo or Freddie Freeman

OF Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Ottavino

 

I doubt we sign one of the big SSs (Baez, Correa, Seager, Story, ASimmons)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Best Records in MLB

 

41-24 TBR

40-24 CWS

40-24 SFG

38-25 LAD

39-26 BOS

39-27 OAK

37-27 Cubs

37-27 MIL

32-24 NYM

36-28 HOU

37-29 SDP

34-27 CLE

 

[moonslav59]

Best Records in MLB

 

41-24 TBR

40-24 CWS

40-24 SFG

38-25 LAD

39-26 BOS

39-27 OAK

37-27 Cubs

37-27 MIL

32-24 NYM

36-28 HOU

37-29 SDP

34-27 CLE

 

Best Records 2020 + 2021

81-42 LAD

81-44 TBR

75-49 CWS

75-51 OAK

74-56 SDP

71-53 Cubs

69-52 CLE

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Some interesting arguments here regarding whether or not it is time to promote Duran:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/6/11/22529544/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-jarren-duran-call-up-when

[notin]

Some interesting arguments here regarding whether or not it is time to promote Duran:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/6/11/22529544/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-jarren-duran-call-up-when

 

I'm slowly migrating to the camp that says maybe they should deal Duran while his stock is high. Most of his numbers look too artificial to me right now.

 

In A ball he hit well, but he was carried by BABIP's over .400 (including a ridiculously unsustainable .480 in A+).

 

In AA, he did not do well in 350 PA's.

 

In AAA, his numbers look good, but are bolstered by ridiculous home/road splits (1.110 OPS at home/.740 on the road). His BABIP is actually probably very low, but he also looks an awful lot like a Polar Park Product.

 

Couple his indeterminable offensive stats with his defensive track record - moved from the infield to the outfield - was it because he was not a good infielder? His current OF defense by all accounts is nothing to get excited over.

 

Now the BA scouts do like him a lot, which is a good thing. But so far, this guy to me looks like he could be the next Corey Patterson. If he could be moved for a young arm (I can let Bloom decide who), it might be the time to do it...

[notin]

 

We do also have the option of 60 day IL'ing Potts, but here's my current DFA-trade list:

 

1. Santana

2. Workman

3. Wilson

4. Brennan

 

The following could probably be traded not DFA'd

5. Chavis

6. Arauz

7. Andriese

 

Certainly traded not DFA'd:

8. Potts

9. Wong

10. Cordero/Groome

 

 

 

I doubt the Sox put Potts on the 60 day IL and start his MLB service time.

 

More likely they DFA/trade/release Marcus Wilson...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm slowly migrating to the camp that says maybe they should deal Duran while his stock is high. Most of his numbers look too artificial to me right now.

 

Now that's going to the other extreme LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Sure feels like the wheels are coming off our starting rotation.

[Hugh2]

I doubt the Sox put Potts on the 60 day IL and start his MLB service time.

 

More likely they DFA/trade/release Marcus Wilson...

 

Here’s an interesting fact. Wilson is just one month older than Duran and playing at the same level.

 

Wilson is sporting a .956 OPS vs Durans .929

 

 

And yet Duran finds himself in the conversation of being rushed to the majors before he may be ready, and Wilson finds himself in the conversation for being DFAd.

[Bellhorn04]

Here’s an interesting fact. Wilson is just one month older than Duran and playing at the same level.

 

Wilson is sporting a .956 OPS vs Durans .929

 

 

And yet Duran finds himself in the conversation of being rushed to the majors before he may be ready, and Wilson finds himself in the conversation for being DFAd.

 

Now you've made my head hurt

[mvp 78]

Here’s an interesting fact. Wilson is just one month older than Duran and playing at the same level.

 

Wilson is sporting a .956 OPS vs Durans .929

 

 

And yet Duran finds himself in the conversation of being rushed to the majors before he may be ready, and Wilson finds himself in the conversation for being DFAd.

 

This is only because Wilson has never hit like this before. He was discussed as a DFA candidate prior to this output.

[moonslav59]

I'm slowly migrating to the camp that says maybe they should deal Duran while his stock is high. Most of his numbers look too artificial to me right now.

 

In A ball he hit well, but he was carried by BABIP's over .400 (including a ridiculously unsustainable .480 in A+).

 

In AA, he did not do well in 350 PA's.

 

In AAA, his numbers look good, but are bolstered by ridiculous home/road splits (1.110 OPS at home/.740 on the road). His BABIP is actually probably very low, but he also looks an awful lot like a Polar Park Product.

 

Couple his indeterminable offensive stats with his defensive track record - moved from the infield to the outfield - was it because he was not a good infielder? His current OF defense by all accounts is nothing to get excited over.

 

Now the BA scouts do like him a lot, which is a good thing. But so far, this guy to me looks like he could be the next Corey Patterson. If he could be moved for a young arm (I can let Bloom decide who), it might be the time to do it...

 

If all this is true, then other GMs will not think too highly of Duran, either and not give us much in return.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with your point. I must have traded Duran 30 times on the BTV site, this past winter.

 

The one thing I will add is that no way I trade him for any 2 or 3 month rental- even Scherzer.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox put Potts on the 60 day IL and start his MLB service time.

 

More likely they DFA/trade/release Marcus Wilson...

 

Depends on on how highly they value Potts. Besides, he turns 23 in a few months, and I thought you didn't think getting an extra year at age 29 or 30 was all that valuable.

[moonslav59]

Here’s an interesting fact. Wilson is just one month older than Duran and playing at the same level.

 

Wilson is sporting a .956 OPS vs Durans .929

 

 

And yet Duran finds himself in the conversation of being rushed to the majors before he may be ready, and Wilson finds himself in the conversation for being DFAd.

 

I've always been one to not try and make definitive judgments based on sample sizes as small as even one or two months, but your example shows just how inconsistent some posters are who do use smaller sample sizes to guide their opinions and suggested moves.

[Hugh2]

This is only because Wilson has never hit like this before. He was discussed as a DFA candidate prior to this output.

 

I’m not contending Wilson has more value than Duran, I just found it interesting.

 

But to your point, to be fair, Duran has never hit like this before either. Power is completely new to his game, and some of that may just be Worcester.

[Hugh2]

Wilson’s OPS since entering the Sox system

2019: Salem 1.016

2019: AA .749

2021: WOO. .956

 

Duran minors ops vs Wilson .834 vs .763

 

Wilson has been just as good recently (maybe a tick better) at the hugest level before the majors. Here’s some more food for thought, Durans defense is pretty bad while Wilson is a plus defender.

[Bellhorn04]

Duran homered last night in a road game, so his star may be on the rise again.

[Hugh2]

Duran homered last night in a road game, so his star may be on the rise again.

 

I don’t think his value (stardom) ever went down. It’s probably as high as it’s ever been.

[Hugh2]

So with all that said, why wouldn’t Wilson get the call before Duran?

 

By every account he should.

[Bellhorn04]

So with all that said, why wouldn’t Wilson get the call before Duran?

 

By every account he should.

 

And maybe Cordero is ahead of both of them in management's opinion.

 

It's only a segment of fans who are itching for Duran, because they think he's an instant superstar. Maybe he will be that good, at some point.

[Hugh2]

And maybe Cordero is ahead of both of them in management's opinion.

 

It's only a segment of fans who are itching for Duran, because they think he's an instant superstar. Maybe he will be that good, at some point.

 

Both Cordero and Wilson are on the 40 man while Duran is not.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it's about time to insert that classic line: "Can any of them pitch?"

[moonslav59]

This is only because Wilson has never hit like this before. He was discussed as a DFA candidate prior to this output.

 

Really? No.

 

Wilson's best years on the farm:

 

1.016 A+ 2019 (167 PAs) This was his last season before '21.

.956 AAA 2021 (137 PAs) This year

.878 Fall '19 (34 PAs) That's three sample in a row- all most recently.

.829 A '17 (445 PAs- a significant sample size)

(His combined level 2019 OPS was .850 in 445 PAs, too.)

.763 Career in 2218 PAs on the farm

 

Duran

.998 A+ '19 (226 PAs)

1.140 Fall '20 (30 PAs)

.941 A- '18 (168 PAs)

.929 AAA (110 PAs) in 2021

.872 A (134 PAs) in '18

.834 career in 898 PAs

 

Both are about the same age, started at about the same age and progressed through the minors at about the same pace. Here are their combined season numbers since 2018:

Wilson

.829 in 2017 (A) 445 PAs at age 20

.678 in 2018 (A+) 502 PAs

.850 in 2019 (A+ to AA) 445 PAs

.878 in 2019 (FgW) 34PAs

.956 in 2021 (AAA) 137 PAs

 

Duran

.765 in 2017 (smr) 137 PAs at age 20

.910 in 2018 (A- to A) 302 PAs

.775 in 2019 (A+ to AA) 578 PAs

.808 in 2020 (FgW) 100 PAs

.929 in 2021 (AAA) 110 PAs

 

Sure, Duran looks a little better at a few more levels, but it's not like Wilson's 2021 season look all out of whack.

[moonslav59]

So with all that said, why wouldn’t Wilson get the call before Duran?

 

By every account he should.

 

He also has way more experience on the farm (2200 PAs to 900).

 

If it's about being "ML ready" one might think Wislon is more so- at the plate and in the field.

[moonslav59]

Both Cordero and Wilson are on the 40 man while Duran is not.

 

Duran will be rule 5, this winter, so we will be adding him, at some point, anyway, so I'm not sure if that is a big factor.

 

Who we might DFA to make room might be a factor.

 

We could DFA Santana and watch him repeat that great year he had recently, somewhere else.

 

We could DFA Workman, Andriese or Brennan and shorten our pitching choices.

 

We could DFA Wilson and further shorten our organizational lack of OF depth.

 

I'd say Chavis, Wilson and even Cordero are ahead of Duran on my call-up list, and that's assuming Bloom & Co. deem Duran ML ready.

[Hugh2]

Duran will be rule 5, this winter, so we will be adding him, at some point, anyway, so I'm not sure if that is a big factor.

 

Who we might DFA to make room might be a factor.

 

We could DFA Santana and watch him repeat that great year he had recently, somewhere else.

 

We could DFA Workman, Andriese or Brennan and shorten our pitching choices.

 

We could DFA Wilson and further shorten our organizational lack of OF depth.

 

I'd say Chavis, Wilson and even Cordero are ahead of Duran on my call-up list, and that's assuming Bloom & Co. deem Duran ML ready.

 

Agree, at a later date of course just like you. Maybe Wilson gets DFAd at some point but until then he should be ahead of Duran. If he hits at the MLB level his value shoots up too.

[mvp 78]

Depends on on how highly they value Potts. Besides, he turns 23 in a few months, and I thought you didn't think getting an extra year at age 29 or 30 was all that valuable.

 

Potts was already been activated and has played the past 3 days.

[mvp 78]

He also has way more experience on the farm (2200 PAs to 900).

 

If it's about being "ML ready" one might think Wislon is more so- at the plate and in the field.

 

Having more professional PA's has nothing to do with being more ready. Wilson was drafted as a HS. Duran came out of college.

[Hugh2]

Having more professional PA's has nothing to do with being more ready. Wilson was drafted as a HS. Duran came out of college.

 

I was going to make the same point. You’re comparing a college draftee to a high school draftee. It could be that extra time

In the minors without reaching the majors hurt Wilson’s value, but for the next year he might be just as good as Duran or better.

 

From AA up, Wilson has put up slightly more impressive numbers. Also, his defense is clearly much more advanced than Durans.

Yes

Edited June 13, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[mvp 78]

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