A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Having more professional PA's has nothing to do with being more ready. Wilson was drafted as a HS. Duran came out of college.

 

I don't equate college ball with low minor play, but they both were at the same levels at about the same ages.

 

If you start with 2018, Duran's first year in the minors, he has played in 222 games and got 990 PAs. Since 2018, Wilson played in 262 games and got 1084 PAs. That is pretty close to Duran, but then factor in how many games were played in the OF, and Wilson is light years ahead in being "ML Ready" on defense, and it shows.

 

OF Games since 2018:

262 Wilson (257 games in OF before 2018)

163 Duran (25 games in OF while in college)

[moonslav59]

@mlbtraderumors

Red Sox Select Ryan Weber, Designate Brandon Brennan

 

Brandon- we hardly knew you.

[moonslav59]

I was going to make the same point. You’re comparing a college draftee to a high school draftee. It could be that extra time

In the minors without reaching the majors hurt Wilson’s value, but for the next year he might be just as good as Duran or better.

 

From AA up, Wilson has put up slightly more impressive numbers. Also, his defense is clearly much more advanced than Durans.

Yes

 

You have exposed the bias some have towards Duran. His speed is an asset that Wilson cannot match, but to me, Wilson is clearly more ML ready and has done about as well as Duran has on offense over the last 2-4 seasons. The defense is not even close to being debatable.

 

[Hugh2]

You have exposed the bias some have towards Duran. His speed is an asset that Wilson cannot match, but to me, Wilson is clearly more ML ready and has done about as well as Duran has on offense over the last 2-4 seasons. The defense is not even close to being debatable.

 

 

I don’t know the answer to this question but I think if you were to race Duran and Wilson Duran would win but it might be very close. Wilson has plus speed too, and unlike Duran projects to be able to play CF right blow.

[Hugh2]

The soxprospects scouting page is very brief about Wilson’s speed. “Plus speed and range”

[notin]

I’m not contending Wilson has more value than Duran, I just found it interesting.

 

 

 

But to your point, to be fair, Duran has never hit like this before either. Power is completely new to his game, and some of that may just be Worcester.

 

 

It is an excellent point, especially since I have clearly been overlooking Wilson.

 

Interestingly, while Duran’s home/road splits clearly show a Polar Park bias, Wilson’s are about as equal as can be with a .968 home OPS and a .941 road OPS.

 

With Wilson already on the 40 man roster, one might think he should have an advantage in being called up first. Especially since his defense is not as questionable…

[mvp 78]

Really? No.

 

Really? Yes.

 

Marcus bounced around in 2019. He was put in Portland, then sent down in the middle of May because it was terrible. He went back to Salem (he had spent all of the prior year in A+) found success and then was promoted again in July. His second stint was a little better, but was nowhere near the numbers he has now.

[Hugh2]

It is an excellent point, especially since I have clearly been overlooking Wilson.

 

Interestingly, while Duran’s home/road splits clearly show a Polar Park bias, Wilson’s are about as equal as can be with a .968 home OPS and a .941 road OPS.

 

With Wilson already on the 40 man roster, one might think he should have an advantage in being called up first. Especially since his defense is not as questionable…

 

You and me both (in terms of overlooking Wilson). I didn’t start the wheels from spinning until someone else pointed it out to me.

 

Now there may be very good reasons for Duran to be ahead of Wilson in thermos prospect status and potential. But I think the argument is very strong that Wilson (at least for a little while) is the guy we should be talking about coming up to help the team and not Duran.

[mvp 78]

I don't equate college ball with low minor play, but they both were at the same levels at about the same ages.

 

If you start with 2018, Duran's first year in the minors, he has played in 222 games and got 990 PAs. Since 2018, Wilson played in 262 games and got 1084 PAs. That is pretty close to Duran, but then factor in how many games were played in the OF, and Wilson is light years ahead in being "ML Ready" on defense, and it shows.

 

OF Games since 2018:

262 Wilson (257 games in OF before 2018)

163 Duran (25 games in OF while in college)

 

Nobody has stated that Duran is on Wilson's level defensively right now.

[Hugh2]

Really? Yes.

 

Marcus bounced around in 2019. He was put in Portland, then sent down in the middle of May because it was terrible. He went back to Salem (he had spent all of the prior year in A+) found success and then was promoted again in July. His second stint was a little better, but was nowhere near the numbers he has now.

 

You could say the same thing about Duran who has been a very different player up until now. Before this year he had no power, now he does. Worcester is inflating those numbers to some degree, but it’s real.

[mvp 78]

You could say the same thing about Duran who has been a very different player up until now. Before this year he had no power, now he does. Worcester is inflating those numbers to some degree, but it’s real.

 

He changed his swing in 2020. However, my original post was about Wilson being discussed as a DFA candidate in the past. It had nothing to do with Duran.

[oldtimer]

You have exposed the bias some have towards Duran. His speed is an asset that Wilson cannot match, but to me, Wilson is clearly more ML ready and has done about as well as Duran has on offense over the last 2-4 seasons. The defense is not even close to being debatable.

 

 

May of the baseball writer advocate for Duran coming up now while you have seemed reluctant to give this kid a try at 24 years old. Duran has speed but he also has a much needed left handed bat while Wilson is another righty. The writers don't seem as worried about defense as you do. We have Santana and Hernandez in the outfield. Neither is doing all that well. Santana in particular hasn't caught on. How long do we give him?

[moonslav59]

It is an excellent point, especially since I have clearly been overlooking Wilson.

 

Interestingly, while Duran’s home/road splits clearly show a Polar Park bias, Wilson’s are about as equal as can be with a .968 home OPS and a .941 road OPS.

 

With Wilson already on the 40 man roster, one might think he should have an advantage in being called up first. Especially since his defense is not as questionable…

 

I, too have spoken of DFA'ing Wilson, while also suggesting we call him up. I have felt like Duran is the better prospects, because I believed the rankings and hype.

 

He may very well be better and have a higher ceiling, but it seems like Wilson is more "ML ready" as of right now, and the numbers do not indicate Duran is the better choice, right now.

 

I've also advocated cutting Santana loose, but that goes against my give players a long enough sample size before making any definitive judgments or decisions.

 

It's hard to watch player struggle and struggle, and it's natural to think maybe someone on the farm can come up and solve the problem overnight.

 

It's also hard to know how the player you demote or DFA would have done had they not been moved. Would Cordero have done something close to what he did in AAA after being demoted had he stayed in the bigs?

 

Where would we be now, if we had benched or demoted Renfroe after his very slow start?

.485 in his first 68 PAs (Santana's sample size is 49 PAs, right now.)

.610 after his first 148 PAs (Dalbec was at .650 after 149 PAs, and people were screaming for his demotion- or worse.)

 

Arroyo was at .672 as late as May 29th (83 PAs). We might have 2-3 more losses had we benched or demoted him. He's hit .974 in his last 9 games (10 rbi) and now is sitting at .765. That's the 5th best OPS on the team!

 

We are all a bit guilty of letting frustration influence our opinions. I'm glad our GM and manager aren't so affected.

 

This isn't saying we should ignore long slumps, but it's hard to know when enough is enough. For example, Marwin is 8th on the team in PAs at 197. Is that a large enough sample size for a career .720 hitter who had his numbers greatly improved by that trash can year? He has a .693 OPS in his last 1411 PAs, .586 his last 396 PAs and .566, this year in 197 PAs.

 

His defense and ability to play several positions makes him worthy enough not to be demoted, but his PAs don't seem to be limited much at all.

 

We hear "Demote Dalbec!" and "Cut Santana," but we hardly hear a peep about Marwin (.566) or even Vaz (.660).

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Let's assume the top 6 on this list are replaced by this winter's Rule 5 protectees:

 

Jarren Duran

Jeter Downs

Gilberto Jimenez

Josh Winckowski

Brayan Bello

Thaddeus Ward

(Maybe Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed and or Frank German)

 

Then, we re-sign or replace the free agents-to-be:

 

SP ERod

RP Barnes

RP Ottavino

UT Marwin

 

Maybe JD Martinez (opt out?)

 

For argument's sake, let's say JD & Barnes stay and we fill the other two slots with two big signings- something like two from...

 

SP Syndergaard, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, L Lynn, Gausman, ERod

RP Kenley Jansen, T Rosenthal

1B Anthony Rizzo or Freddie Freeman

OF Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Ottavino

 

I doubt we sign one of the big SSs (Baez, Correa, Seager, Story, ASimmons)

 

 

 

 

I believe both Duran and Casas will be on the 2022 team. Casas to platoon with Dalbec if Dalbec's trajectory is satisfactory for 2021. Dalbec can also sub for Devers at 3rd to rest him or to allow him to DH part time. The DH is by no means settled for 2022 with JDM in a position to opt out.

[Nick]

I was going to make the same point. You’re comparing a college draftee to a high school draftee. It could be that extra time

In the minors without reaching the majors hurt Wilson’s value, but for the next year he might be just as good as Duran or better.

 

From AA up, Wilson has put up slightly more impressive numbers. Also, his defense is clearly much more advanced than Durans.

Yes

 

But when your top baseball guy says Duran has chance to be "great", Bloom's words, not mine, you take notice.

[Nick]

I believe both Duran and Casas will be on the 2022 team. Casas to platoon with Dalbec if Dalbec's trajectory is satisfactory for 2021. Dalbec can also sub for Devers at 3rd to rest him or to allow him to DH part time. The DH is by no means settled for 2022 with JDM in a position to opt out.

 

I follow Cot's and JD already had two chances opt out. No mention of third opt out. I would think Boston newspapers would have reported possible opt out if he had one this year. I've e-mailed couple of writers but no response.

[Hugh2]

He changed his swing in 2020. However, my original post was about Wilson being discussed as a DFA candidate in the past. It had nothing to do with Duran.

 

Yes he did make those adjustments, and it’s people buying into that power that heightens his prospect status. But that gets talked about because he’s “a guy” in the system. Highly regarded and talked about. All prospects are working on things in the minors, whether it’s their swing mechanics, defense, a third pitch etc. I don’t see how we can discount what Wilson is doing at the expense of giving Duran a shot.

 

At the very least, you’re not DFAing Wilson for Duran (or anyone), not when you don’t have too at least.

Edited June 13, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Hugh2]

I believe both Duran and Casas will be on the 2022 team. Casas to platoon with Dalbec if Dalbec's trajectory is satisfactory for 2021. Dalbec can also sub for Devers at 3rd to rest him or to allow him to DH part time. The DH is by no means settled for 2022 with JDM in a position to opt out.

 

I’m sorry, but they’re not rushing a young 21 year old to the majors to platoon with someone. Casas playing in Boston at some point in 2022 is a good bet, but he’s on a starters trajectory. He’s one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he has real middle of the order potential. You don’t platoon a guy like that, not until you have to at least.

[Hugh2]

I follow Cot's and JD already had two chances opt out. No mention of third opt out. I would think Boston newspapers would have reported possible opt out if he had one this year. I've e-mailed couple of writers but no response.

 

J.D. has an opt out after this year.

[moonslav59]

But when your top baseball guy says Duran has chance to be "great", Bloom's words, not mine, you take notice.

 

If anyone asked him about Wilson, he might say the exact same thing.

 

What manager says anything bad about prospects that are doing well?

 

[Nick]

If anyone asked him about Wilson, he might say the exact same thing.

 

What manager says anything bad about prospects that are doing well?

 

 

It was Bloom, not Cora.

[moonslav59]

It was Bloom, not Cora.

 

Would a GM be anything different?

[Hugh2]

Yeah it’s not different, these guys know what to say about these kids.

 

The purpose of the farm is to support the big league club. That’s it, nothing else. Now, sometimes that manifests itself through grooming the future position player at said position, positional depth to account for injury, or to trade and make the big league club better. All these kids are hypothetically trading chips. No manager, general manager, President of operations etc etc is ever not going to give the most optimistic assessment when asked about any of these guys. They’re not going to crush a guys value so a journalist can get a hot take.

 

It’s like, the car salesman at the Toyota branch isn’t going to tell you the new corollas are s***.

Edited June 13, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Nick]

Would a GM be anything different?

 

I doubt any manager or GM says every player has chance to be great. We're splitting hair here Moon.

 

Can you quote Bloom saying another minor leaguer with 'Great'? Show me the quote. I can show you his quote about Duran.

[Nick]

Moving on....

 

Recent starting pitching is exactly why you need a shut down ace in your rotation. Maybe that'll be Chris Sale.

 

Richards, $10M, E Rod, $8.3M, Pedey, $13M.....That'll take care of the ace. Move Whitlock/Houck to starting rotation.

 

Then after 2022, Eovaldi's $17M and Price's $16M comes off the books.

[moonslav59]

Moving on....

 

Recent starting pitching is exactly why you need a shut down ace in your rotation. Maybe that'll be Chris Sale.

 

Richards, $10M, E Rod, $8.3M, Pedey, $13M.....That'll take care of the ace. Move Whitlock/Houck to starting rotation.

 

Then after 2022, Eovaldi's $17M and Price's $16M comes off the books.

 

I think we bring Richards back on his option.

[moonslav59]

I doubt any manager or GM says every player has chance to be great. We're splitting hair here Moon.

 

Can you quote Bloom saying another minor leaguer with 'Great'? Show me the quote. I can show you his quote about Duran.

 

Yes, splitting hairs. (I do that too much.)

 

He said "chance to be great" on Duran, so you are probably never- including on Duran.

 

I'd say many GMs feel most of their better performing prospects have "a chance" to be great.

[Nick]

I think we bring Richards back on his option.

 

I was just thinking how to pay for a $30M pitcher. E Rod and Pedey adds to $22M. More than likely E Rod will cost us at least $15M-$18M so the $30M is covered.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Nick

[Larry Cook]

I was just thinking how to pay for a $30M pitcher. E Rod and Pedey adds to $22M. Technically E Rod will cost us at least $15M so the $30M is covered.

 

Price’s contract is the anchor we just can’t ditch.

[Bellhorn04]

Price’s contract is the anchor we just can’t ditch.

 

It's nearly gone. One more year, next year.