A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

fWAR for pitchers is also questionable IMHO. Rick Porcello being a prime example with a career fWAR that is 50% better than his bWAR. And a 1.7 fWAR in 2020.

 

Worthy of a study of some sort.

Even at fWAR, Rick Porcello is not good. He has been something around 2.0 fWAR through his career. 2.0 fWAR pitchers are role players. Role players in my book are not good.

[Bellhorn04]

Even at fWAR, Rick Porcello is not good. He has been something around 2.0 fWAR through his career. 2.0 fWAR pitchers are role players. Role players in my book are not good.

 

29.6 fWAR in 11.4 seasons (2020 = .4 seasons)

 

Average per season 2.6

 

FanGraphs calls that a 'solid starter', which is one notch below good player on their scale.

 

A lot of his value was as an innings chomper.

[moonslav59]

At least that good—despite my earlier comment. Overall, the 5 starters have been a plus despite so-so starts.

 

He's better than many teams' 2 or 3 starters and most teams' #4.

 

IMO, he's a bargain at $6M/1.

 

Still more of the season to go, and if he keep pitching like his last 8 starts, maybe my mind will change.

[moonslav59]

I like fWAR over bWAR since the main source of fWAR for pitchers is FIP — things that a pitcher can control.

 

FIP really penalizes pitch to contact pitchers with low K rates.

 

I like fWAR more than bWAR, but they both have flaws.

 

Probably an average of the two is closer to reality.

[moonslav59]

29.6 fWAR in 11.4 seasons (2020 = .4 seasons)

 

Average per season 2.6

 

FanGraphs calls that a 'solid starter', which is one notch below good player on their scale.

 

A lot of his value was as an innings chomper.

 

He started in the bigs at a very young age and went straight to 200 IP/yr and never stopped.

[iortiz]

29.6 fWAR in 11.4 seasons (2020 = .4 seasons)

 

Average per season 2.6

 

FanGraphs calls that a 'solid starter', which is one notch below good player on their scale.

 

A lot of his value was as an innings chomper.

Well he has 8/11 seasons posting fWARs around 2 i.e most of them (the median) —kind of my point.

 

If you take away his best and worst year he is something around 2.

 

Thing is his 5+ fWAR year which was fluke IMO elevates way up his numbers.

[iortiz]

FIP really penalizes pitch to contact pitchers with low K rates.

 

I like fWAR more than bWAR, but they both have flaws.

 

Probably an average of the two is closer to reality.

 

Yeah, FIP is not fair with contact pitchers.

[iortiz]

He started in the bigs at a very young age and went straight to 200 IP/yr and never stopped.

 

Most of his career has been mediocre.

[a700hitter]

Most of his career has been mediocre.

He ate innings. That was his biggest plus. He gave up a ton of HRs. When he could limit the HRS to 1 or 2 solo jobs, he was very effective. He was never more than a #3. Most years he was a #4.

[iortiz]

He ate innings. That was his biggest plus. He gave up a ton of HRs. When he could limit the HRS to 1 or 2 solo jobs, he was very effective. He was never more than a #3. Most years he was a #4.

 

Yup. That’s how I called him when he arrived to Boston, a number 4.

[moonslav59]

Well he has 8/11 seasons posting fWARs around 2 i.e most of them (the median) —kind of my point.

 

If you take away his best and worst year he is something around 2.

 

Thing is his 5+ fWAR year which was fluke IMO elevates way up his numbers.

 

Many of the average to better players have one great year. If you take theirs away, too, now a 2.0 is good, not ok.

[moonslav59]

Most of his career has been mediocre.

 

So, is mediocre middle 20%?

 

Out of 150 SP'ers, 5 per team x 30 teams, he'd be #60-90 in most major categories?

[iortiz]

Many of the average to better players have one great year. If you take theirs away, too, now a 2.0 is good, not ok.

 

2 is mediocre and very close to bad. Porcello in his career drove in that highway most of the times.

 

Good to Very Good pitchers, drive in a very different highway. Porcello certainly isn’t in that list.

[iortiz]

So, is mediocre middle 20%?

 

Out of 150 SP'ers, 5 per team x 30 teams, he'd be #60-90 in most major categories?

 

No 1s are excellent to elite

No 2s are very good

No 3s are good

No 4s are mediocre to average

No. 5s are below average to bums

 

In my book Porcello was a number 4th pitcher. Mediocre or average at best.

[moonslav59]

No 1s are excellent to elite

No 2s are very good

No 3s are good

No 4s are medioOn a winning team, yes, cre to average

No. 5s are below average to bums

 

In my book Porcello was a number 4th pitcher. Mediocre or average at best.

 

On a winning team, yes, but mediocre, to me, is a number 3. (BTW, he's 4.4 not 4.6 career- a significant difference)

 

Anyway you look at it, here are some numbers. 151 pitchers had 800+ IP from 2009-2020. Here's where Porcello placed in the categories:

 

You might think 1-30 is a number 1, 31-60 #2, 61-90 #3, 91-120 #4 and 121-150 #5...

 

19. fWAR at 29.6

81. xFIP at 4.04

91. WHIP at 1.32

98. ERA- at 102

 

He looks like a #3 to me-maybe even a #2. You call a #3 "Good." Me, too.

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

On a winning team, yes, but mediocre, to me, is a number 3.

 

Anyway you look at it, here are some numbers. 151 pitchers had 800+ IP from 2009-2020. Here's where Porcello placed in the categories:

 

You might think 1-30 is a number 1, 31-60 #2, 61-90 #3, 91-120 #4 and 121-150 #5...

 

19. fWAR at 29.6

81. xFIP at 4.04

91. WHIP at 1.32

98. ERA- at 102

 

He looks like a #3 to me-maybe even a #2. You call a #3 "Good." Me, too.

 

 

A 4.6 ERA career pítcher is not a number 2, neither a No. 3 nor a good pitcher. Simply no way—even if you try to demerit ERA. It is not a small sample either.

 

He is mediocre; average at very very very best. He is a No. 4. AND if you rush me, a No. 5. It doesn’t matter how you slice it.

[iortiz]

Also it doesn’t matter if you are in a winning team. If you suck you suck. If you are good you are good. It’s that simple. Porcello was mediocre most of the times regardless the team he played for.

[Nick]

In the ninth, Verdugo and Dalbec laced back-to-back singles off Yankees reliever Chad Green before Kevin Plawecki lined out for the second out of the frame. Hernández then drove a 1-0 fastball into the gap to plate Verdugo from second and pinch-runner Jarren Duran all the way from first.

 

You give a kid all the bats he needs in minors. But when the big club is fighting for pennant, you do everything you can to make the big club better. You start internally. Then you look elsewhere for help.

[Kimmi]

Perez has had 4 bad starts out of 19.

 

Perez will typically keep the team in the game. He's had 7 outings in which he lasted 4 innings or less, which obviously is not ideal, but again, he will usually give the team a chance to win. I think he's worth $6M.

[mvp 78]

Perez will typically keep the team in the game. He's had 7 outings in which he lasted 4 innings or less, which obviously is not ideal, but again, he will usually give the team a chance to win. I think he's worth $6M.

 

11 starts with a GSv above 50, 8 below. As a 5th starter, he's fine. I just think I would want a guy with more upside next year.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure how the Dodgers still have "financial flexibility" when they're so far over the tax threshold.

 

They have a ton of money, that's for sure.

 

They may not have as much financial flexibility after this year, but it was that flexibility that allowed them to sign Mookie and Bauer. Not that I am in agreement with either of those moves, but when you have a strong farm and have recently reset the luxury tax penalty, you can go big on free agents from time to time.

 

The Dodgers may have handcuffed themselves for a few years with those big contracts, but from the time Friedman took over the Dodgers until present, he has done an outstanding job, IMO.

[notin]

Most of his career has been mediocre.

 

Not counting 2020, he has 3 seasons below 2.0 fWAR out of 11 seasons, and in one of those seasons he was 2 years removed from high school.

 

He’s had a good career. Just because he isn’t Chris Sale or Justin Verlander doesn’t change that…

[notin]

In the ninth, Verdugo and Dalbec laced back-to-back singles off Yankees reliever Chad Green before Kevin Plawecki lined out for the second out of the frame. Hernández then drove a 1-0 fastball into the gap to plate Verdugo from second and pinch-runner Jarren Duran all the way from first.

 

You give a kid all the bats he needs in minors. But when the big club is fighting for pennant, you do everything you can to make the big club better. You start internally. Then you look elsewhere for help.

 

But the Sox could go get some Terrance Gore type for pinch running and not stifle Duran with intermittent playing time…

[mvp 78]

Porcello was a very good starting pitcher. JD Drew was a very good RFer.

 

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

[notin]

11 starts with a GSv above 50, 8 below. As a 5th starter, he's fine. I just think I would want a guy with more upside next year.

 

Agreed.

 

Perez isn’t a long term solution (and his contracts indicate no one thinks he is). But if he’s your weak link in the rotation, things are not as bad as some might fear.

 

Depth over quality is a bigger factor for this team, even with Sale coming back at some point…

[notin]

Porcello was a very good starting pitcher. JD Drew was a very good RFer.

 

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

 

As a defensive RF, JD did some stuff that amazed me. Like how he never broke stride when cleanly fielding ground balls in the outfield. Veteran starting outfielder routinely work on fielding the ball while running and timing everything so the proper foot is forward when they pick up the grounder. JD just did it…

[Kimmi]

3d time thru last night murdered Richards. And that's why I don't understand the argument that Perez is pretty good when he too often (7 times so far this year) only pitches 2, 3, or 4 innings.

 

Max, I don't disagree that Perez' failure to reach 5 innings in many games is an issue. His average Game Score is 48 (50 being considered an average outing.) For the back end of the rotation, that's not bad.

 

I'm not saying he's been great. Just saying that I would be okay if the Sox picked up his option for next year.

[moonslav59]

A 4.6 ERA career pítcher is not a number 2, neither a No. 3 nor a good pitcher. Simply no way—even if you try to demerit ERA. It is not a small sample either.

 

He is mediocre; average at very very very best. He is a No. 4. AND if you rush me, a No. 5. It doesn’t matter how you slice it.

 

His ERA- and WHIP make him a solid #4 (almost a 3).

 

His xFIP makes him a #2.

 

His durability and IP upped his fWAR to make him a solid #1.

 

All together, he is certainly a #3 or maybe a low #2.

 

I'm not downplaying ERA. If I did, he'd be a solid #2.

 

I'm looking at other pitchers in his era. I only counted pitchers with 800+ IP. My guess is many who did not reach that threshold were much worse than Rick, ut some would be better.

 

Compared to other starters of his time, he was a clear #3. On a good playoff team, you'd like to see him be your #4, ut that doesn't make him one overall.

[moonslav59]

Perez will typically keep the team in the game. He's had 7 outings in which he lasted 4 innings or less, which obviously is not ideal, but again, he will usually give the team a chance to win. I think he's worth $6M.

 

Only 4 of those 7 low-inning starts were bad.

 

He was yanked one time after 3.2 innings with no earned runs allowed. Sure, it would have been nice for him to go 5, but 3.2 and 0 ER is not "bad."

 

Any starter who can have just 4 bad starts out of 19 is worth way more than $6M.

 

The problem is, his last 8 starts. If he continues at that pace, he's not worth $6M.

 

Let's see what he does over the next 10 weeks.

[Kimmi]

Porcello was a very good starting pitcher. JD Drew was a very good RFer.

 

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

 

You're welcome.

 

I very much enjoyed your TedTalk.