A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt, I wouldn't want to go over by $53M, nor would I have ever signed Mookie to that deal.

 

I'm talking about their general philosophy. They have sustainability, financial flexibility, and a strong farm. Yes, that's the model that I hope Bloom emulates.

 

I'm not sure how the Dodgers still have "financial flexibility" when they're so far over the tax threshold.

 

They have a ton of money, that's for sure.

[Nick]

MASH Update

 

 

Aaron Judge was one of a handful of players placed on the COVID list last weekend, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to come back for this series.

 

Luke Voit is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee that put him on the IL when the COVID issues were arising as well. Voit’s timeline to return is not clear.

 

Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery around the same time as Chris Sale, but he had a setback in his rehab so his timeline could be pushed back a bit more.

 

Corey Kluber went down with a significant shoulder injury in May, and while originally he was expected to be out until September, and August return could now be in the cards.

 

Gio Urshela was another one of the players to hit the COVID IL.

 

Clint Frazier left a game with dizziness back at the end of June, and while he’s doing some workout stuff again it’s still not entirely clear what the problem is.

 

Aaron Hicks underwent surgery on his wrist that will likely keep him out all season.

 

Jonathan Loaisiga was another player put on the COVID list, with his absence starting at the end of the first half.

 

Darren O’Day never really got to get going this season and underwent season-ending surgery on his hamstring.

 

Kyle Higashioka was yet another player affected by the COVID outbreak.

 

Miguel Andújar went down with a wrist injury earlier this month, and while he’s still not back there was optimism that it wasn’t anything too serious.

 

Trey Amburgey came up after the COVID outbreak, but quickly tweaked a hamstring that landed him on the injured list.

 

Tim Locastro was recently acquired in a trade, but then tore his ACL last weekend against the Red Sox and will miss the rest of the season.

 

Clarke Schmidt has been out all season dealing with arm issues, but he’s working his way back soon and could be a swingman option for the Yankees down the stretch.

 

Nestor Cortes was also part of the COVID outbreak, though it seems like he could potentially be back sooner than the others.

 

Michael King hurt his finger lifting weights, and it’s not clear when he’ll get back on the mound.

 

Wandy Peralta was the final member of the COVID outbreak

 

How do we lose to these guys except maybe on Friday when Cole starts?

[moonslav59]

MASH Update

 

 

Aaron Judge was one of a handful of players placed on the COVID list last weekend, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to come back for this series.

 

Luke Voit is dealing with a bone bruise on his knee that put him on the IL when the COVID issues were arising as well. Voit’s timeline to return is not clear.

 

Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery around the same time as Chris Sale, but he had a setback in his rehab so his timeline could be pushed back a bit more.

 

Corey Kluber went down with a significant shoulder injury in May, and while originally he was expected to be out until September, and August return could now be in the cards.

 

Gio Urshela was another one of the players to hit the COVID IL.

 

Clint Frazier left a game with dizziness back at the end of June, and while he’s doing some workout stuff again it’s still not entirely clear what the problem is.

 

Aaron Hicks underwent surgery on his wrist that will likely keep him out all season.

 

Jonathan Loaisiga was another player put on the COVID list, with his absence starting at the end of the first half.

 

Darren O’Day never really got to get going this season and underwent season-ending surgery on his hamstring.

 

Kyle Higashioka was yet another player affected by the COVID outbreak.

 

Miguel Andújar went down with a wrist injury earlier this month, and while he’s still not back there was optimism that it wasn’t anything too serious.

 

Trey Amburgey came up after the COVID outbreak, but quickly tweaked a hamstring that landed him on the injured list.

 

Tim Locastro was recently acquired in a trade, but then tore his ACL last weekend against the Red Sox and will miss the rest of the season.

 

Clarke Schmidt has been out all season dealing with arm issues, but he’s working his way back soon and could be a swingman option for the Yankees down the stretch.

 

Nestor Cortes was also part of the COVID outbreak, though it seems like he could potentially be back sooner than the others.

 

Michael King hurt his finger lifting weights, and it’s not clear when he’ll get back on the mound.

 

Wandy Peralta was the final member of the COVID outbreak

 

How do we lose to these guys except maybe on Friday when Cole starts?

 

Easy: addition by subtraction.

 

The Yankees suck!

 

The Railriders are pretty good!

[Nick]

MLB War Leaders

 

21. 3.3 Rafael Devers

22. 3.1 Xander Bogaerts

23. 3.0 Jose Ramirez

24. 3.0 Kiké Hernandez

25. 3.0 JD Martinez

 

So I was the idiot that said we overpaid for Kike......sure glad we have him for another year. See how easy it is to admit defeat and jump on the bandwagon?

 

Santana still sucks!

[moonslav59]

MLB War Leaders

 

21. 3.3 Rafael Devers

22. 3.1 Xander Bogaerts

23. 3.0 Jose Ramirez

24. 3.0 Kiké Hernandez

25. 3.0 JD Martinez

 

So I was the idiot that said we overpaid for Kike......sure glad we have him for another year. See how easy it is to admit defeat and jump on the bandwagon?

 

Admitting mistakes actually shows courage and integrity.

 

I never understood why so many feel like doing so shows weakness.

[moonslav59]

bWAR Team Leaders

 

3.5 Devers (now a plus on dWAR)

3.1 JD

3.0 Bogey

3.0 Kike

2.7 Eovaldi

1.8 Whitlock

1.6 Barnes

1.5 Arroyo

1.5 Pivetta

1.3 Renfroe

1.3 Vazquez

1.3 Ottavino

1.2 Verdugo

0.9 Perez

0.6 Sawamura

0.5 Taylor

0.5 Workman

0.4 DHern

0.4 ERod

0.3 Houck

0.2 Richards

0.1 Marwin

[mvp 78]

I agree, but he's also cooled off a bit lately.

 

Who else makes sense?

 

Cooled off considerably.

[mvp 78]

MLB War Leaders

 

21. 3.3 Rafael Devers

22. 3.1 Xander Bogaerts

23. 3.0 Jose Ramirez

24. 3.0 Kiké Hernandez

25. 3.0 JD Martinez

 

So I was the idiot that said we overpaid for Kike......sure glad we have him for another year. See how easy it is to admit defeat and jump on the bandwagon?

 

Santana still sucks!

 

If Kiké is moved to 2b, he's going to take a hit on that WAR calculation.

[Bellhorn04]

Cherry picking for Kike:

 

Last 19 games

292/420/708 - 1129 OPS

 

With a 241 BAbip!

[mvp 78]

Cherry picking for Kike:

 

Last 19 games

292/420/708 - 1129 OPS

 

With a 241 BAbip!

 

A hot streak will take that to 2000 OPS easy. He's been unlucky!

[Maxbialystock]

Perez has had 4 bad starts out of 19.

 

I count 7 bad starts, all games when he pitched 4 of fewer innings, which put too much of a burden on the bullpen and also allows Perez to avoid facing any hitters more than twice. To me those games are nonstarters.

[Maxbialystock]

If Kiké is moved to 2b, he's going to take a hit on that WAR calculation.

 

True. He has the highest DWAR, +1.3, on the team, mostly because of CF play.

[Maxbialystock]

We will have to wait to see how he performs the remainder of the season. He seems to be reinventing himself to some degree of success so far. He pitched well through 5 innings last night, against a very tough line up. The 3rd time through the order is a very real thing for starter.

 

3d time thru last night murdered Richards. And that's why I don't understand the argument that Perez is pretty good when he too often (7 times so far this year) only pitches 2, 3, or 4 innings.

[mvp 78]

True. He has the highest DWAR, +1.3, on the team, mostly because of CF play.

 

Yes. I was told that he'd be a downgrade in CF (not by moon), but he's been pretty good.

[Bellhorn04]

3d time thru last night murdered Richards. And that's why I don't understand the argument that Perez is pretty good when he too often (7 times so far this year) only pitches 2, 3, or 4 innings.

 

Perez is an adequate #5 starter.

[Nick]

Can I assume Whitlock has higher WAR than Barnes because he hasn't had as many 'bad' games as Barnes?

[mvp 78]

Can I assume Whitlock has higher WAR than Barnes because he hasn't had as many 'bad' games as Barnes?

 

Barnes 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 0.9 fWAR

 

bWAR is fake.

[Nick]

Barnes 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 0.9 fWAR

 

bWAR is fake.

 

Thanks...just seemed odd..

[mvp 78]

Thanks...just seemed odd..

 

I think it's because Whitlock has more innings. I'm not sure the other reasons bWAR calculated it out that way. Barnes has better xFIP, k/bb, k%.

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 0.9 fWAR

 

bWAR is fake.

 

fWAR for pitchers is also questionable IMHO. Rick Porcello being a prime example with a career fWAR that is 50% better than his bWAR. And a 1.7 fWAR in 2020.

 

Worthy of a study of some sort.

[moonslav59]

I count 7 bad starts, all games when he pitched 4 of fewer innings, which put too much of a burden on the bullpen and also allows Perez to avoid facing any hitters more than twice. To me those games are nonstarters.

 

3.2 IP with 0 ERs might not be good, but to me, it's not "bad."

[moonslav59]

Yes. I was told that he'd be a downgrade in CF (not by moon), but he's been pretty good.

 

I just went by the metrics and the very few games I saw him play- mostly in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Perez is an adequate #5 starter.

 

He's one of the best #5 starters in MLB.

[moonslav59]

fWAR for pitchers is also questionable IMHO. Rick Porcello being a prime example with a career fWAR that is 50% better than his bWAR. And a 1.7 fWAR in 2020.

 

Worthy of a study of some sort.

 

I think fWAR values IP way more than bWAR, even if those IP'd are not all that good.

[Bellhorn04]

I think fWAR values IP way more than bWAR, even if those IP'd are not all that good.

 

Not sure that's what's going on. In 2020 Porcello had a 1.7 fWAR in only 59 innings. What jumps out is the huge difference between his ERA and his FIP. As we've discussed before, if fWAR was so meaningful, you'd think Porcello would have been signed this year.

[mvp 78]

fWAR for pitchers is also questionable IMHO. Rick Porcello being a prime example with a career fWAR that is 50% better than his bWAR. And a 1.7 fWAR in 2020.

 

Worthy of a study of some sort.

 

Porcello was great, er former CY Young winner Porcello.

[mvp 78]

Not sure that's what's going on. In 2020 Porcello had a 1.7 fWAR in only 59 innings. What jumps out is the huge difference between his ERA and his FIP. As we've discussed before, if fWAR was so meaningful, you'd think Porcello would have been signed this year.

 

GM's are idiots. We've always known this.

[Bellhorn04]

GM's are idiots. We've always known this.

 

Yeah, but what does that make us?

[Maxbialystock]

He's one of the best #5 starters in MLB.

 

At least that good—despite my earlier comment. Overall, the 5 starters have been a plus despite so-so starts.

[iortiz]

I think fWAR values IP way more than bWAR, even if those IP'd are not all that good.

 

I like fWAR over bWAR since the main source of fWAR for pitchers is FIP — things that a pitcher can control.