A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

Theo, Ben and DD might have had no Sox rings with the budgets theRays had, so I’m not sure it really matters much.

 

Bloom knows talent and developing prospects. I’m hopeful that when he spends big he spends it well- little experience and all

 

Look at what Friedman has done with the Dodgers. My hope is that Bloom will follow in those footsteps.

[moonslav59]

Will this be the 26 man roster by the end of August?

 

SP- Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Richards

RP- Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Taylor, DHern, Perez, Sawamura, Brasier

C- Vaz, Plawecki

1B- Dalbec-Arroyo

2B- Kike-Arroyo

3B- Devers

SS- Bogey

LF- Verdugo

CF- Duran

RF- Renfroe

DH JD

Utility- Marwin, Cordero or Santana

[moonslav59]

Look at what Friedman has done with the Dodgers. My hope is that Bloom will follow in those footsteps.

 

I thought you disliked big spending. They are $52M over the tax line.

 

They do lose a lot of payroll over the next two winters, so let's see if they keep spending large or cut back some.

 

After 2021

Kershaw

Pujols

Jansen

Seager

Taylor

Tsutsugo

Knebel

Nelso

 

After 2022

Price

Pollock option

Turner option

Muncy option

A Barnes

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Winning is still the bottom line. Bloom still has to win one. Same with the much heralded Billy Beane.

 

While winning the WS is the bottom line, what happens in the playoffs is largely a crapshoot. We often judge a GM by how many rings he has won, but I don't that's necessarily the fairest way to rate a GM.

[moonslav59]

While winning the WS is the bottom line, what happens in the playoffs is largely a crapshoot. We often judge a GM by how many rings he has won, but I don't that's necessarily the fairest way to rate a GM.

 

Agreed, but it is one major factor.

[Kimmi]

Well, guess what? You got your wish and this lineup was/is a complete bust--against Taillon and his 4.60 ERA.

 

It is so frustrating when this team doesn't hit and score runs, especially against a so-so pitcher. Beginning with the Oakland series, through the Yankees series, the team has slashed .215/.295/.359/.653, scoring 3.75 runs/game. The team probably needed some kind of spark or shake up. I was completely okay with the Sox not calling Duran up, but I am equally okay with them calling him up. Similarly, I'm not fully on board with Cora's line up decisions, but I'm also okay with his decision to shake things up.

 

One game or series doesn't tell us anything, but it was nice to see our offense come back with a vengeance last night. Despite our recent struggles, the Sox will be fine.

[Kimmi]

I still think we are better than the Rays and A's.

 

It's hard to tell with the White Sox.

 

The Astros look better on paper than any AL team, but their pen is a mess.

 

If we finish behind the Yanks and/or Jays, then we were never as good as we became convinced we were, and nothing short of a couple major deals could change that.

 

Is that something this team should really do?

 

Is this the time to pull out the stops and mortgage some of our future?

 

The way some "fans" are talking, and I use the term loosely, we'll need some major trades to turn around this season.

 

 

Fans and media tend to overreact with every ebb and flow of the season. IMO, the Sox will be fine with a few minor tweaks, with the knowledge that Sale should be returning soon.

 

As far as whether we are better than other teams, I like to look at run differential and Pythagorean W-L as a gauge. In that regard, the Sox have been a bit on the fortunate side while the Jays have been unfortunate. I think it's going to be a very tight race going down the stretch.

[Kimmi]

Bloom has repeatedly said that he won't go for a rental. He would look for someone that can help the ball club not only for 2021 but beyond. And he won't mortgage the future of this ball club.

 

He envisions having a team that can be in the thick of playoff chase every year. That's the goal.

 

Bloom sounds like a very smart man.

[Kimmi]

No rentals at all? Not even like the ones we got in 2018? He said that?

 

I think he's talking about blockbuster type rentals. He won't trade any top prospects or go over the luxury tax for a rental.

[moonslav59]

I think he's talking about blockbuster type rentals. He won't trade any top prospects or go over the luxury tax for a rental.

 

Agreed.

 

The time to do either of those is just not July 2021.

[Kimmi]

Of course, losing 3 series in a row sucks, but we all should have known the path to winning a playoff slot was probably going to involve a rough patch or two.

 

We need to remember that other teams have had or are going through rough patches recently, too. All AL teams have serious weaknesses. Some may make major moves at the deadline, while we may be relying only on rolling the dice with Sale. I'm sure we will hear much frustration from some posters, here, as the win now mentality takes hold.

 

I'm glad Bloom is at the helm. I plan on being a live for a few more years and like the longer term priorities very much.

 

In those 3 series losses, 4 of our 6 losses were by 1 or 2 runs. That rain shortened loss to the Yankees is Exhibit A of a game lost due to random factors. They are still losses, but that's a much better sign for the Sox than if we had lost those games by 5 or more runs.

[Kimmi]

Field: Does not move well behind the plate. Framing and receiving need a lot of work. Potential fringe-average glove.

 

This is a definite red flag for me. However, with robot umps apparently coming soon, framing and receiving won't be nearly as big a deal, which is very sad.

[moonslav59]

This is a definite red flag for me. However, with robot umps apparently coming soon, framing and receiving won't be nearly as big a deal, which is very sad.

 

Framing is not a skill many young catchers have.

 

They learn it over many years of development.

[mvp 78]

Framing is only a skill because it's meant to trick umpires into calling every pitch a strike. Receiving is a more appropriate skill as it's simply about handling the pitch coming in.

[Kimmi]

I thought you disliked big spending. They are $52M over the tax line.

 

They do lose a lot of payroll over the next two winters, so let's see if they keep spending large or cut back some.

 

After 2021

Kershaw

Pujols

Jansen

Seager

Taylor

Tsutsugo

Knebel

Nelso

 

After 2022

Price

Pollock option

Turner option

Muncy option

A Barnes

 

 

I do dislike big spending. And they are over this year after being under for several years. Friedman has built that team to the point where they have year after year sustainability, a strong farm, and financial flexibility.

[Bellhorn04]

I think he's talking about blockbuster type rentals. He won't trade any top prospects or go over the luxury tax for a rental.

 

That's why I was asking for some clarification from Nick.

[mvp 78]

I do dislike big spending. And they are over this year after being under for several years. Friedman has built that team to the point where they have year after year sustainability, a strong farm, and financial flexibility.

 

What if it's short term big spending? Something you can get out of in 2-3 years?

[Bellhorn04]

What if it's short term big spending? Something you can get out of in 2-3 years?

 

Then you're talking about Victorino/Napoli type signings, not elite players in prime years.

 

The only guy willing to go against the contractual norm is currently on "administrative leave"...

[mvp 78]

Then you're talking about Victorino/Napoli type signings, not elite players in prime years.

 

The only guy willing to go against the contractual norm is currently on "administrative leave"...

 

Short term guys:

 

Greinke

Verlander

Scherzer

Blackmon

Semien

Jansen

Morton

Duffy

Crawford

Miller

JBJ

Kluber

JD

 

 

Not all elite, not all prime years.

 

The elite/prime year guys would be:

 

Bauer

Arenado

Bryant

Freeman

Story

Correa

Rizzo? (is he even elite anymore)

 

I wouldn't see us signing ANY of those elite guys. I could see us trying to grab to high priced/short term SP's like Scherzer and Duffy if they can't re-sign ERod.

[moonslav59]

I do dislike big spending. And they are over this year after being under for several years. Friedman has built that team to the point where they have year after year sustainability, a strong farm, and financial flexibility.

 

I get that, but almost $53M over is not something to emulate.

 

To be highly competitive, next year, they will likely have to spend large, again.

[Nick]

It was a rare contest under the lights for the FCL Sox, and the on-field events were worthy of the event. Connor Seabold, out since the start of the season with right elbow inflammation, took the mound in a rehab start against fellow rehabbing hurler Chris Archer. Seabold, currently ranked 6th in the system, went 2 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on one hit. Seven of the eight outs he recorded were via strikeout. Seabold also walked three and hit a batter. A trio of relievers followed, with Wilkelman Gonzalez the most impressive. Gonzalez was perfect over five innings, striking out nine batters.

 

Here you go Moon, blurb came on 7/13 so I'm assuming Seabold pitched on 7/12.

[moonslav59]

It was a rare contest under the lights for the FCL Sox, and the on-field events were worthy of the event. Connor Seabold, out since the start of the season with right elbow inflammation, took the mound in a rehab start against fellow rehabbing hurler Chris Archer. Seabold, currently ranked 6th in the system, went 2 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on one hit. Seven of the eight outs he recorded were via strikeout. Seabold also walked three and hit a batter. A trio of relievers followed, with Wilkelman Gonzalez the most impressive. Gonzalez was perfect over five innings, striking out nine batters.

 

Here you go Moon, blurb came on 7/13 so I'm assuming Seabold pitched on 7/12.

 

Good news. I had high hopes when we got him.

[mvp 78]

Good news. I had high hopes when we got him.

 

He pitched this weekend too.

 

There was a whole lot going on here in this blowout victory for FCL, but we have to start on the mound with Seabold. The prospect was making his second rehab appearance on the complex, and after showing strong stuff but some rust with his command the first time out, it doesn’t appear that was much of an issue this time around. He allowed just a single and a double, and he should be able to move up the ladder for his next start, even if he’s not ready to get all the way back up to Worcester. As for Encarnacion, he’s just coninuing a great start to his year. He’s now down to a 0.69 ERA over 14 innings, striking out 14 and walking only one.

[moonslav59]

If we can keep Arroyo healthy, and Duran does well, we may not need any help on offense.

 

Arroyo has a .792 OPS. Whatever Duran ends up having, the two of these guys should do better than this:

 

PA Player OPS

246 Marwin .583

109 Santana .575

102 Cordero .501

64 Chavis .530

 

That's over 500 PAs of some very bad offense.

 

 

Where might we see a shift in the IP distribution, going forward?

 

IP Pitcher ERA

108 Eovaldi3.57 (same)

103 Pivetta 4.37 (same)

95 ERod 5.19 (maybe more)

92 Richards 4.91 (less)

89 Perez 4.16 (maybe less)

 

46 Whitlock 1.38 (same- on innings limit?)

38 Barnes 2.61 (same)

38 Ottavino 2.61 (same)

38 Sawamura 2.87 (same)

37 Andriese 6.03 (way less)

31 D Hern 3.77 (same)

31 Taylor 3.77 (same)

 

23 Valdez 4.24 (less)

15 Workman 3.00 (less, I hope)

14 Brice 6.59 (way less)

13 Houck 3.38 (way more)

12 Rios 4.63 (less)

 

15 combined: Weber, Brennan, Bazardo, Brewer, Marwin & Arroyo

 

0 Sale (way more)

0 Brasier (more)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If we can keep Arroyo healthy, and Duran does well, we may not need any help on offense.

 

Arroyo has a .792 OPS. Whatever Duran ends up having, the two of these guys should do better than this:

 

PA Player OPS

246 Marwin .583

109 Santana .575

102 Cordero .501

64 Chavis .530

 

That's over 500 PAs of some very bad offense.

 

 

Where might we see a shift in the IP distribution, going forward?

 

IP Pitcher ERA

108 Eovaldi3.57 (same)

103 Pivetta 4.37 (same)

95 ERod 5.19 (maybe more)

92 Richards 4.91 (less)

89 Perez 4.16 (maybe less)

 

46 Whitlock 1.38 (same- on innings limit?)

38 Barnes 2.61 (same)

38 Ottavino 2.61 (same)

38 Sawamura 2.87 (same)

37 Andriese 6.03 (way less)

31 D Hern 3.77 (same)

31 Taylor 3.77 (same)

 

23 Valdez 4.24 (less)

15 Workman 3.00 (less, I hope)

14 Brice 6.59 (way less)

13 Houck 3.38 (way more)

12 Rios 4.63 (less)

 

15 combined: Weber, Brennan, Bazardo, Brewer, Marwin & Arroyo

 

0 Sale (way more)

0 Brasier (more)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rios and Workman should be gone. Andriese should still have a spot since he can throw a lot of innings and save the pen. I'd have him as the 13th pitcher on the squad until the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Rios and Workman should be gone. Andriese should still have a spot since he can throw a lot of innings and save the pen. I'd have him as the 13th pitcher on the squad until the playoffs.

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. ERod

4. Pivetta

5. Richards

6. Perez

 

7. Barnes

8. Ottavino

9. Whitlock

10. Taylor

11. Houck

12. D Hern

13. Sawamura

 

 

14. Brasier or Andriese/Rios/Workman/Bazardo/Valdez/Seabold

[mvp 78]

@RedSox

Most XBH in the AL, 2018-2021:

 

1. J.D. Martinez – 223

2. Xander Bogaerts – 219

3. Rafael Devers – 213

[mvp 78]

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. ERod

4. Pivetta

5. Richards

6. Perez

 

7. Barnes

8. Ottavino

9. Whitlock

10. Taylor

11. Houck

12. D Hern

13. Sawamura

 

 

14. Brasier or Andriese/Rios/Workman/Bazardo/Valdez/Seabold

 

Waive Garrett Richards.

[moonslav59]

Waive Garrett Richards.

 

This is the "realistic" thread.

 

Richards may be a good RP'er.

 

Andriese is not.

[Nick]

This is the "realistic" thread.

 

Richards may be a good RP'er.

 

Andriese is not.

 

Barnes, Ottavino, Sawamura, Whitlock, Taylor, Darwinzon, Houck, Richards/Perez in the pen.

 

Sale, E Rod, Eovaldi, Pivetta should be a decent starting four for the playoffs. Unless Houck jumps in front of Pivetta.