A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Throwing at the strike zone doesn’t necessarily mean you have a good command.

 

Rick Porcello pitched a lot of meatballs because he didn’t have command of his sinker. Those meatballs cost him a lot of HRs, reflected in his career 12% HR/FB which is pretty awful.

 

A 12% HR/FB does not mean you don't have good command, either.

 

He also had a career 47.2% GB rate. That's pretty nice. You probably have to have nice command to get players to hit GBs so often.

Edited July 24, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I’m loving what I have seen in Duran. He seems he belongs here. He could easily be a 5 tool player. His athleticism is really impressive.

 

Also, I think he has been doing oks at defense. He has read the ball pretty well.

 

What's not to like/love?

 

This kid has all the skills to be something very special.

 

Changing positions and hitting approaches slowed his arrival time a bit, but he's here, now, and I'm certain he's here to stay.

 

What a big boost he can be to a team walking a budget line and looking to get even better over the next few years.

[iortiz]

A 12% HR/FB does not mean you don't have good command, either.

 

Allowing such awful rate of HRs through 11 years, speak volumes of your command of your main pitch type which in Porcello was the sinker.

[Bellhorn04]

Allowing such awful rate of HRs through 11 years, speak volumes of your command of your main pitch type which in Porcello was the sinker.

 

1.1 HR per 9 is "awful"? We're sure about this?

[iortiz]

What's not to like/love?

 

This kid has all the skills to be something very special.

 

Changing positions and hitting approaches slowed his arrival time a bit, but he's here, now, and I'm certain he's here to stay.

 

What a big boost he can be to a team walking a budget line and looking to get even better over the next few years.

 

It’s way early but IMO he has Betts’ potential but with higher pop.

[iortiz]

1.1 HR per 9 is "awful"? We're sure about this?

 

A 12% HR/FB is pretty awful, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

A 12% HR/FB is pretty awful, yes.

 

That's minutiae. I'm asking about the HR per 9 innings stat, which is kind of the bottom line number.

[iortiz]

That's minutiae. I'm asking about the HR per 9 innings stat, which is kind of the bottom line number.

 

HR/FB is a better peripheral stat to look at when you are evaluating HRs allowed because it can tell you about the luck of a pitcher allowing bombs.

 

In Porcello’s case, allowing HRs wasn’t a luck thing. The sample is large. He was/is a prone HR pitcher due his command of his sinker. It didn’t sink very often hence that awful HR/FB rate.

[iortiz]

That's minutiae. I'm asking about the HR per 9 innings stat, which is kind of the bottom line number.

 

… but yeah, that rate is awful as well specially for contact pitchers like Porcello. Contact pitchers often have runners on base but DPs are their allies, but when those bombs come with runners on bases, it turns catastrophic while taxing your ERA like in Porcello’s.

 

To put it in context, a great contact pitcher like Orel Hershiser has a career 0.68 HR/9. There’s no a surprise Orel’s career ERA is way better than Porcello’s, and a great part of that successful career is because his HR/9 rate was way lower —because the command of his sinker was way better.

Edited July 24, 2021 by iortiz

[Maxbialystock]

Porcello didn't have command? How absurd. He pitched 2,096 major league innings and averaged 2.1 walks per 9 innings. He was a strike thrower all the way.

 

I think maybe Max, you don't appreciate how hard major league baseball is.

 

Based on what I said, it's a fair criticism that I don't appreciate how hard MLB pitching is. But in fact I do and have expatiated on the topic in the past. A MLB starter has to have the accuracy of a professional knife thrower--but at four times the distance--and the strength to throw it really hard, the skill to throw different kinds of breaking balls, and the endurance to do it 80-120 times per start.

 

And you're right: Porcello did all those things. But in my view he never had even one good pitch that was really hard to hit, so he had to rely on mixing his pitches, which kind of worked, but he lacked the kind of command that got guys out. Thus his career OPS Against was .750, and in his five years (2015-2019) with the Sox his OPS's against were .787, .635 (his Cy Young year), .826, .698, and .809.

[notin]

HR/FB is a better peripheral stat to look at when you are evaluating HRs allowed because it can tell you about the luck of a pitcher allowing bombs.

 

In Porcello’s case, allowing HRs wasn’t a luck thing. The sample is large. He was/is a prone HR pitcher due his command of his sinker. It didn’t sink very often hence that awful HR/FB rate.

 

 

HR/FB does rely on FB%. If a pitcher simply isn’t giving up fly balls, the percentage that go yard takes on less meaning. Also, ballpark is a factor…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s way early but IMO he has Betts’ potential but with higher pop.

 

Easy there... Mookie already has the most three-home run games in big league history -- 6 career games with 3 HRs -- a record he tied at age 28...

[iortiz]

HR/FB does rely on FB%. If a pitcher simply isn’t giving up fly balls, the percentage that go yard takes on less meaning. Also, ballpark is a factor…

 

HR% most of the times are fluke outcomes, but HR/FB tries to predict —as BABIP and LOB do— whether it was a fluke or not.

 

As I said, in Porcello’s case, when you watch his FB/HR rate through 11 years, you can assume with 100%% certainty, that he’s been a prone HR pitcher due his poor command of his sinker.

[iortiz]

Easy there... Mookie already has the most three-home run games in big league history -- 6 career games with 3 HRs -- a record he tied at age 28...

 

Yeah it was a bold prediction but still I see more power in Duran’s bat.

[Bellhorn04]

HR% most of the times are fluke outcomes, but HR/FB tries to predict —as BABIP and LOB do— whether it was a fluke or not.

 

As I said, in Porcello’s case, when you watch his FB/HR rate through 11 years, you can assume with 100%% certainty, that he’s been a prone HR pitcher due his poor command of his sinker.

 

And yet his FIP, his 3 true outcome ERA, is better than his ERA, and his fWAR is much better than his bWAR.

 

I think Porcello was a guy who gave up a lot of contact and a lot of singles and doubles, and that was his biggest 'problem'.

[iortiz]

And yet his FIP, his 3 true outcome ERA, is better than his ERA, and his fWAR is much better than his bWAR.

 

I think Porcello was a guy who gave up a lot of contact and a lot of singles and doubles, and that was his biggest 'problem'.

Yeah but they are still above 4 which it is a figure for No. 4s pitchers in my book.

 

The reason his run prevention metrics are bit lower, is due the fact he threw a lot of innings which is his best value.

 

People often demonize ERA, but ERA in large samples is a pretty good metric and tells you very accurate what kind of pitcher are you.

 

OTOH Run Prevention Estimators in large samples sometimes don’t tell you the true and are unfair specially in contact pitchers since most of them love Ks.

[moonslav59]

HR% most of the times are fluke outcomes...

 

Please explain.

 

If HR% is mostly a fluke, then how is HR/FB not mostly a fluke?

[moonslav59]

Could we see the Sox trade someone like Potts, Rosario and Bazardo for a better RP'er, then turn around and trade Richards and cash for a prospect?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Morning everyone. Not sure if I am remembered, I was a regular in 2018 but life got in the way. Forgot my password and for some reason could not get approved when I tried to register with another name. But this old man finally figured it out.

 

Anyway I don't pretend to be as knowledgeable as you folks, I do not understand all the advanced stats posted here but I have enjoyed reading the threads and thought I'd finally participate. A few observations:

 

I woke up still pissed as that loss last night. The Yankees were done but a bloop double by Stanton changed the game.

 

Even before last night I was going to post my concerns with Ottavino. He has really good numbers and will be counted on in pressure situations in the post season but he never seems to have a clean inning. There is always traffic that he usually wriggles out of. That's not a good recipe for playoff success.

 

If I never see Marwin Gonzales take another at bat in a Red Sox uniform I'd be fine with that. He got way too many at bats this season, obviously due to injuries, and it was painful to witness.

 

Can you imagine this lineup if Verdugo and Dalbec had played close to expectations? I'm still fine with Bobby in the lineup, it's too soon to judge, but man.....

 

The pen has been really good and a big reason for the turnaround. However I'm not sold on Barnes. I read someone say a top closer is not necessary but I can't remember too many World Series teams that didn't have one. I'm fascinated to see what Cora does with Whitlock, what a weapon he has at his disposal. With Tanner and Sale perhaps the rotation will be good enough in October but I have my doubts.

 

For that last reason I don't expect a big run in October. But this year has been a blast. I live in Maryland so never got all the Sox games, until I subscribed to the MLB Network in 2018, and I did it again. Best money I have spent in a while, really enjoying this year.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[moonslav59]

Morning everyone. Not sure if I am remembered, I was a regular in 2018 but life got in the way. Forgot my password and for some reason could not get approved when I tried to register with another name. But this old man finally figured it out.

 

Anyway I don't pretend to be as knowledgeable as you folks, I do not understand all the advanced stats posted here but I have enjoyed reading the threads and thought I'd finally participate. A few observations:

 

I woke up still pissed as that loss last night. The Yankees were done but a bloop double by Stanton changed the game.

 

Even before last night I was going to post my concerns with Ottavino. He has really good numbers and will be counted on in pressure situations in the post season but he never seems to have a clean inning. There is always traffic that he usually wriggles out of. That's not a good recipe for playoff success.

 

If I never see Marwin Gonzales take another at bat in a Red Sox uniform I'd be fine with that. He got way too many at bats this season, obviously due to injuries, and it was painful to witness.

 

Can you imagine this lineup if Verdugo and Dalbec had played close to expectations? I'm still fine with Bobby in the lineup, it's too soon to judge, but man.....

 

But the pen has been really good and a big reason for the turnaround. However I'm not sold on Barnes. I read someone say a top closer is not necessary but I can't remember too many World Series teams that didn't have one. I'm fascinated to see what Cora does with Whitlock, what a weapon he has at his disposal. With Tanner and Sale perhaps the rotation will be good enough in October but I have my doubts.

 

For that last reason I don't expect a big run in October. But this year has been a blast. I live in Maryland so never got all the Sox games, until I subscribed to the MLB Network in 2018, and I did it again. Best money I have spent in a while, really enjoying this year.

 

Welcome back Yaz. We missed you.

 

You make some good points.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Welcome back Yaz. We missed you.

 

You make some good points.

 

Thanks man, it's such a small (but active) group I thought I may be remembered. Even if you don't it was nice of you to say you do.

 

I'm still a Vaz guy but didn't understand why he didn't get more days off, especially for such a physically demanding position. Obviously they have gottn production from the backup in a limited role.

 

I feel so badly for Chavis. He came back up after losing weight, he wants it so badly, but it's just not working. I saw him mentioned in trades but I question if he has any value. Still undecided if I want a deadline deal, the farm has been in need of a rebuild and I'd hate to stray away from that. Still the chance to win a ring is inviting.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Another thought: Can someone explain to me why a professional hitter can not adjust to the shift? The left side is completely open for many left handers and they refuse to go the other way for an easy base hit. If nothing else it would cause teams to re-evaluate their strategy and possible open up the right side.

[moonslav59]

Thanks man, it's such a small (but active) group I thought I may be remembered. Even if you don't it was nice of you to say you do.

 

I'm still a Vaz guy but didn't understand why he didn't get more days off, especially for such a physically demanding position. Obviously they have gottn production from the backup in a limited role.

 

I feel so badly for Chavis. He came back up after losing weight, he wants it so badly, but it's just not working. I saw him mentioned in trades but I question if he has any value. Still undecided if I want a deadline deal, the farm has been in need of a rebuild and I'd hate to stray away from that. Still the chance to win a ring is inviting.

 

Of course I remember you.

 

Several players have not gotten a longer look due to us winning so much.

 

I think we may see two 2 for 1 deals, soon. One may look like a seller move to make room for Sale and Sawamura.

 

One may be to ease this winters roster decisions and add a 1bman or RPer to the mix.

[moonslav59]

Another thought: Can someone explain to me why a professional hitter can not adjust to the shift? The left side is completely open for many left handers and they refuse to go the other way for an easy base hit. If nothing else it would cause teams to re-evaluate their strategy and possible open up the right side.

 

All they have to is learn to bunt. Their egos are too big for that.

[Bellhorn04]

Another thought: Can someone explain to me why a professional hitter can not adjust to the shift? The left side is completely open for many left handers and they refuse to go the other way for an easy base hit. If nothing else it would cause teams to re-evaluate their strategy and possible open up the right side.

 

Now you've done it LOL

 

The consensus seems to be that most hitters do not like messing with their swings. And wasn't it Ted Williams himself who was the first to be shifted on and the first to refuse to change anything?

 

It looks easy from home, but unless you've tried it against major league pitching yourself, you don't really know.

[moonslav59]

Now you've done it LOL

 

The consensus seems to be that most hitters do not like messing with their swings. And wasn't it Ted Williams himself who was the first to be shifted on and the first to refuse to change anything?

 

It looks easy from home, but unless you've tried it against major league pitching yourself, you don't really know.

 

Going the other way should be part of any good hitters approach

[Maxbialystock]

Another thought: Can someone explain to me why a professional hitter can not adjust to the shift? The left side is completely open for many left handers and they refuse to go the other way for an easy base hit. If nothing else it would cause teams to re-evaluate their strategy and possible open up the right side.

 

Welcome back!

 

Verdugo has gone so often to the left that they don't shift much for him. Those who don't go opposite field follow the trail set by the one and only Ted Williams who believed that hard contact--not necessarily for a dinger--was the way to beat the shift. His 39th birthday was August 30, 1957, the season he hit .388, one of the highest averages anyone has had since he hit .406 in 1941. That said, Williams was a dead pull hitter and no doubt believed "don't mess with success."

 

I do disagree with you about Barnes for two reasons. First, I think he is excellent this year and certainly good enough to close in the postseason. Second, you have clearly forgotten 2018 when Kimbrel was a horrible closer (ERA 5.91) in the postseason--but the Sox still took 3 of 4 from the Yankees, 4 of 5 from the Astros, and 4 of 5 from the Dodgers.

 

I do not believe the Sox have ever had a better manager of the bullpen than the guy they have now. Kimbrel was a disaster in the 2018 postseason, but Cora found a way to work with and around him, including sometimes leaving him in while us guys on Talksox were screaming to kill him.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Now you've done it LOL

 

The consensus seems to be that most hitters do not like messing with their swings. And wasn't it Ted Williams himself who was the first to be shifted on and the first to refuse to change anything?

 

It looks easy from home, but unless you've tried it against major league pitching yourself, you don't really know.

 

Nothing about hitting ML pitching looks easy to me from home. I could try 1,000 pitches, starting my swing as the pitcher is winding up, and wouldn't touch a ball. I hear what you are saying, I've heard that too, but they make adjustment all the time. Seems this would be so beneficial.

 

Don't even get me started on bunting. It's been a hot topic for me for a long long time.

[Bellhorn04]

Going the other way should be part of any good hitters approach

 

Williams, arguably the best ever, was a dead pull hitter.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Verdugo has gone so often to the left that they don't shift much for him. Those who don't go opposite field follow the trail set by the one and only Ted Williams who believed that hard contact--not necessarily for a dinger--was the way to beat the shift. His 39th birthday was August 30, 1957, the season he hit .388, one of the highest averages anyone has had since he hit .406 in 1941. That said, Williams was a dead pull hitter and no doubt believe "don't mess with success."

 

I do disagree with you about Barnes for two reasons. First, I think he is excellent this year and certainly good enough to close in the postseason. Second, you have clearly forgotten 2018 when Kimbrel was a horrible closer in the postseason--but the Sox still took 3 of 4 from the Yankees, 4 of 5 from the Astros, and 4 of 5 from the Dodgers.

 

I do not believe the Sox have ever had a better manager of the bullpen than the guy they have now. Kimbrel was a disaster in the 2018 postseason, but Cora found a way to work around him, including sometimes leaving him in while us guys on Talksox were screaming to kill him.

 

 

Oh I remember how the pen went in 2018. We all saw the set up men pitch far better in the post season than what we saw for 5 months. That still amazes me. But that 2018 team was far better than this one, they could overcome a bad post season by Kimbrel. Barns is very good, no doubt, but he's not as dominant as most WS closers from where I sit.

 

As for Verdugo I just backed up last nights game. His 2nd AB (runner on 2nd on his first) they had 3 IF on the right side, the 3rd baseman is about 20 feet from 2nd base. He had 70 feet of open infield on the left side, he hit into the shift to the second baseman in shallow right for a ground out on a very hard hit ball.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Yaz Fan Since '67