A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

Will the Sox pick up Richard's $10M club option for 2022? Or will they use the same strategy as they did with Perez and attempt to re-sign for less money?

 

What is his market value? Can he get a multiple year contract?

 

I suppose what he does for remainder of season will tell.

[mvp 78]

Will the Sox pick up Richard's $10M club option for 2022? Or will they use the same strategy as they did with Perez and attempt to re-sign for less money?

 

What is his market value? Can he get a multiple year contract?

 

I suppose what he does for remainder of season will tell.

 

I'm not sure he's worth 10M.

[moonslav59]

Updated AL Standings

 

58-37 CWS

58-38 HOU

57-38 BOS (1.0 from best AL record/+1.0 ALE)

56-39 TBR (-1.0 ALE/+5 last WC slot)

55-42 OAK (+3.0 last WC)

51-44 SEA -3.0 WC

48-43 TOR -4.0

49-44 NYY -4.0

47-45 CLE -5.5

[moonslav59]

Will the Sox pick up Richard's $10M club option for 2022? Or will they use the same strategy as they did with Perez and attempt to re-sign for less money?

 

What is his market value? Can he get a multiple year contract?

 

I suppose what he does for remainder of season will tell.

 

If he stays healthy, we might be surprised at what he gets, assuming he does okay the rest of the way (a big assumption).

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure he's worth 10M.

 

As of now, I'd say no, but yes to Perez.

 

That all could change.

[mvp 78]

As of now, I'd say no, but yes to Perez.

 

That all could change.

 

Next year, you could have Seabold/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta all trying to be squeezed into the rotation. If ERod doesn't re-sign, that would leave 4 guys scrambling for 2 spots.

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Free Agent

Whitlock

Houck

[mvp 78]

I think you could find a better bargain elsewhere than Perez at 6M. Perez is fine, but I think they need higher upside guys if they are ready to compete going forward.

[moonslav59]

Next year, you could have Seabold/Whitlock/Houck/Pivetta all trying to be squeezed into the rotation. If ERod doesn't re-sign, that would leave 4 guys scrambling for 2 spots.

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Free Agent

Whitlock

Houck

 

You can never have too much SP'ing.

 

This year is a fluke, concerning no SP'er IL's, except Sale & Seabold.

 

If we end up with too many, teams will be beating down to door to trade for one.

 

Perez seems great as a 2-3 inning guy. Use him in long relief.

 

2022

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. FA

4. Pivetta

5. Whitlock

6. Houck

 

1. Barnes

2. FA

3. (Houck)/Taylor

4. DHern

5. Sawamura

6. Perez

7. Brasier/Valdez/Bazardo/Seabold/Winckowski

[mvp 78]

You can never have too much SP'ing.

 

This year is a fluke, concerning no SP'er IL's, except Sale & Seabold.

 

If we end up with too many, teams will be beating down to door to trade for one.

 

Perez seems great as a 2-3 inning guy. Use him in long relief.

 

2022

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. FA

4. Pivetta

5. Whitlock

6. Houck

 

1. Barnes

2. FA

3. (Houck)/Taylor

4. DHern

5. Sawamura

6. Perez

7. Brasier/Valdez/Bazardo/Seabold/Winckowski

 

Barnes got 8M? Why give Perez 6?

[moonslav59]

I think you could find a better bargain elsewhere than Perez at 6M. Perez is fine, but I think they need higher upside guys if they are ready to compete going forward.

 

Not many $6M pitchers have given what Perez has given.

 

Now, if he keeps pitching like his last 8 starts (6.23 ERA), then of course, we say no.

 

I'm not all that big on recency as the only or major factor, but how many SP'ers in MLB, today have had 19 starts with these amount of decent to good one?

 

IP ER

7.2 0 (@ HOU)

6.0 0 (v LAA)

5.1 1

5.1 1

5.0 1

5.0 1

3.2 0

5.2 2

5.1 2

5.0 2

5.0 2

6.0 3

5.0 3

3.2 2

 

He's really only had 5 bad starts out of 19, but 4 have been in the last 8 starts.

 

Note: Within the last 8 games, he had a 3 game stretch with a 1.88 ERA but an .853 OPS Against.

 

Here's the things that catch my eye.

 

1. Perez imploded after they let him go 7.2 IP at Houston. I think he should be a 2-3 inning guy.

 

2. In those 5 bad starts, here were his first 2-3 inning numbers:

 

4/18 3.2 IP 4 ER, but...

3 IP 1 ER (on 2 ground ball singles and 2 line drive singles)

 

6/8 2 IP 6 ER (no buts)

 

6/13 1.1 IP 5 ER (no buts)

 

7/10 3.2 IP 3 ER, but 2 HRs did him in.

 

7/18 4 IP 3 ER, but

2 IP 1 ER, then in 3rd inning, 2 ground ball singles (one cheap) and a ground out for the 2nd run allowed. (4 IP 2 ER) Then, in the 5th: bunt single, infield single and error and sac fly for 3rd run.

 

Perez has pitched very well this year, but recently, no.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Barnes got 8M? Why give Perez 6?

 

See my last post.

 

Plus, Barnes got $8M x 2. Perez is owed $6M x 1 and will pitch twice as many innings as Barnes.

[Nick]

Budget by Nick

 

So Moon and I do our 'budgets' little differently. He always starts with zero. I like to start with current year's tax payroll and then add/subtract to it. Either way gets you to same place.

 

205.466M 2021 Luxury Tax Payroll

add

004.125M Increase in Barnes new contract

substract

010.000M Garrett Richards, $10M club option for 2022

007.150M Ottavino's expiring contract (FA)

008.300M E Rod's expiring contract (FA)

004.517M Vaz expiring contract (club option for 2022)

005.000M Martin Perez (club option for 2022)

003.000M Marwin Gonzalez (FA)

002.100M Matt Andriese (club option for 2022)

001.000M Brandon Workman (FA)

013.750M Dustin Pedroia

002.800M Beni

004.534M Amount under the tax line of $210M

058.026M Amount Available to the $210M tax limit assuming this does not change in new contract.

Assume $ 25M for arbitration raises...(Devers, Renfroe, Plawecki, Braiser, Cordero, Pivetta, Verdugo, Arroyo, Taylor, Chavis, Rios), it maybe little high.

 

We now have $33M to spend

 

We lose following that needs to be replaced

E Rod...SP

Richards....SP ($10M club option)

Martin...SP (6M club option)

Ottavino....RP

Workman..RP

Andriese...RP

Vaz....C ($7M club option)

Gonzalez..Utility

 

Priorities

 

$7M Sox will pick up Vaz's club option (I think we'll pick us his $250K option payoff if we use the club option for 22)

$15M. short term deal for E Rod?

 

Now we'll down to $11M to get to the $210M tax line, assuming no change to the tax limit.

 

SP Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Pivetta, Whitlock

RP Barnes, Sawamura, Houck, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier, RP, RP

 

C Vaz/?????

1B ?????

2B Arroyo/Kike

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Duran/Kike

RF Renfroe

DH JD

Utility ??

Utility ??

 

I'm going with 13+13=26

 

We have $11M to spend....it can come internally I'm counting on Devers to get $10M raise via arbitration so we can use $11M to extend Devers....work his annual value down to $25M.

 

2 relievers

1 1B...Biggest Need in my mind....

1 C

2 utility players

 

This is the budget I'm submitting to Sox brass, if asked, and not going over the 'tax limit'. If replacement all come via internally, then there's chance we can stay below the tax line for another year.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

See my last post.

 

Plus, Barnes got $8M x 2. Perez is owed $6M x 1 and will pitch twice as many innings as Barnes.

 

Do pitchers get paid by the inning now?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Josh Taylor's slider is one of 8 pitches in MLB that has over a 50% swing and miss rate this year, minimum 100 pitches swung at. Other include deGrom's slider and Ohtani's splitter.

 

There are 693 different pitches that have been swung at 100+ times.

 

Should have DFA'd him in April!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nick]

Righty Garrett Richards, who starts Wednesday, has made three starts against the Blue Jays this year.

He has allowed 10 runs, all earned, 22 hits and 12 walks while striking out 10 in 16 ⅔ innings.

 

We better score some runs....early

[Nick]

Not sure when his two year commitment ends..Ranked #5 by FanGraph

 

Song did not pitch in 2020 and instead began his two-year military commitment, which is just as well since there was no minor league season and next year’s might start later than usual. I’ve updated some of the stuff related to his commitment’s timing, but his scouting report is exactly the same: It’s fairly common for a prospect’s trade value to be affected by something circumstantial, but Song’s situation is unique. He was clearly a first round talent ahead of the 2019 draft, but it was unclear where he’d be picked because of his military commitment. At the time, service academy policy stated that Song had to complete two years of Naval service, after the Trump administration repealed an Obama-era rule that allowed athletes to petition for an exemption in order to pursue pro sports or some other activity that might bolster recruitment or the military’s image in general. Then, weeks after Song was drafted, the now-outgoing president reinstated the rule, with the exemption slated to take effect again in 2020. But Song’s application for a retroactive waiver was denied by the Navy. He is eligible to apply for an early release in May.

[Bellhorn04]

Do pitchers get paid by the inning now?

 

On average, starters get paid 2-3 times as much as relievers, so in effect, yes.

[mvp 78]

Not sure when his two year commitment ends..Ranked #5 by FanGraph

 

Song did not pitch in 2020 and instead began his two-year military commitment, which is just as well since there was no minor league season and next year’s might start later than usual. I’ve updated some of the stuff related to his commitment’s timing, but his scouting report is exactly the same: It’s fairly common for a prospect’s trade value to be affected by something circumstantial, but Song’s situation is unique. He was clearly a first round talent ahead of the 2019 draft, but it was unclear where he’d be picked because of his military commitment. At the time, service academy policy stated that Song had to complete two years of Naval service, after the Trump administration repealed an Obama-era rule that allowed athletes to petition for an exemption in order to pursue pro sports or some other activity that might bolster recruitment or the military’s image in general. Then, weeks after Song was drafted, the now-outgoing president reinstated the rule, with the exemption slated to take effect again in 2020. But Song’s application for a retroactive waiver was denied by the Navy. He is eligible to apply for an early release in May.

 

It's a big mystery when/if he'll pop back up. That's the only reason he fell so far in the draft in the first place. May was not a reasonable estimation since he's in flight school and a lot of $$$ has been spent on him. Maybe by next spring at some point?

[mvp 78]

On average, starters get paid 2-3 times as much as relievers, so in effect, yes.

 

Ok, but does it work that way for relievers vs relievers?

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not sure he's worth 10M.

 

My info says the Sox are paying Garrett Richards $8.5M. That is a bargain only with respect to what they are paying David Price, $18M--because he is pitching for someone else.

[Bellhorn04]

Ok, but does it work that way for relievers vs relievers?

 

No. If moon is thinking of re-signing Perez as a long reliever, that's a whole other deal.

[Bellhorn04]

My info says the Sox are paying Garrett Richards $8.5M. That is a bargain only with respect to what they are paying David Price, $18M--because he is pitching for someone else.

 

I think there's a $1.5 million buyout they have to pay Richards if they don't pick up his option, so he's guaranteed $10 million.

[Nick]

I think there's a $1.5 million buyout they have to pay Richards if they don't pick up his option, so he's guaranteed $10 million.

 

You are correct. For purpose of luxury tax calculation, $1.5M is initially added to 2021 tax payroll because presumption is not picking up the club option.

 

Once the Sox pick up the club option, our luxury tax cost for Richards drops to $8.5M for 2021. Luxury tax is paid on tax payroll as of 12/31/21. Club options has to be exercized pretty early, definitely before 12/31/21.

[Nick]

How much talent would we need to give up for Max Scherzer?

 

Not endorsing the trade. Just curious.

[Bellhorn04]

How much talent would we need to give up for Max Scherzer?

 

Not endorsing the trade. Just curious.

 

It's not often a pitcher as good as Scherzer gets traded at the deadline, so it's not easy to find a comp.

[notin]

@redsoxstats

Josh Taylor's slider is one of 8 pitches in MLB that has over a 50% swing and miss rate this year, minimum 100 pitches swung at. Other include deGrom's slider and Ohtani's splitter.

 

There are 693 different pitches that have been swung at 100+ times.

 

Should have DFA'd him in April!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I only called for his demotion, not DFA.

 

But if he didn’t have options, then, yes I would have called for his DFA in April…

[notin]

It's not often a pitcher as good as Scherzer gets traded at the deadline, so it's not easy to find a comp.

 

Greinke?

 

Verlander?

[Bellhorn04]

Greinke?

 

Verlander?

 

What I should have said was pitchers this good with only 2 months left on their contract, which is a very different situation.

[moonslav59]

What I should have said was pitchers this good with only 2 months left on their contract, which is a very different situation.

 

Yes, when Verlander was traded to the Astros at the waiver deadline in 2017, he still had 2 full years fter 2017 and an option for 2020.

 

Greinke was traded in July 2019 and had 2 more years of team control left.

 

So, who is the best rated rental pitcher traded in the last few years?

[harmony]

Yes, when Verlander was traded to the Astros at the waiver deadline in 2017, he still had 2 full years fter 2017 and an option for 2020.

 

Greinke was traded in July 2019 and had 2 more years of team control left.

 

So, who is the best rated rental pitcher traded in the last few years?

Andrew Cashner in 2019!

July 13: Red Sox acquire RHP Andrew Cashner from Orioles for OF Elio Prado and SS Noelberth Romero

 

The Red Sox lacked a clear fifth starter once Nathan Eovaldi went on the injured list in mid-April, and Cashner can help solidify that spot. The 32-year-old, who is in line to become a free agent after the season, pitched to a 3.83 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 17 starts with Baltimore.

Every deal made during 2019 Trade Deadline season

WWW.MLB.COM

---

July 31: Astros acquire RHP Zack Greinke and cash from Diamondbacks for 1B/OF Seth Beer, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, and INF/OF Josh Rojas The Astros pulled off a stunning blockbuster at the Trade Deadline buzzer, scoring D-backs ace Zack Greinke for a package of four prospects in Beer