A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Tedballgame]

Everyone has biases, but I have not formed a negative opinion about your character based on your posts that would make me reflexively treat you with disdain, as you treat me. I know nothing about your life other than your views about baseball. The worst I can say about you is that your content is as boring and pointless as it is voluminous. Other than that, I have no reason to think you are not a good person.

 

Yep

[FredLynn]

Not just Whitlock, but the rest of the relief crew is coming along (unexpectedly) well. Lets hope they can keep it up:

 

Josh Taylor’s last 15 G:

11.0 IP, 0.00 ERA

 

Adam Ottavino’s last 12 G:

11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA

 

Hirokazu Sawamura’s last 9 G:

9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA

 

Darwinzon Hernandez’s last 8 G:

7.0 IP, 1 H, 0.00 ERA

 

Garrett Whitlock’s last 5 G:

7.1 IP, 0.00 ERA

[mvp 78]

Not just Whitlock, but the rest of the relief crew is coming along (unexpectedly) well. Lets hope they can keep it up:

 

Josh Taylor’s last 15 G:

11.0 IP, 0.00 ERA

 

Adam Ottavino’s last 12 G:

11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA

 

Hirokazu Sawamura’s last 9 G:

9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA

 

Darwinzon Hernandez’s last 8 G:

7.0 IP, 1 H, 0.00 ERA

 

Garrett Whitlock’s last 5 G:

7.1 IP, 0.00 ERA

 

Taylor was just really awful for his first few appearances from what I remember. Ottavino is a little more white knuckle than I'd like for my 8th inning guy. Sawamura has been fine. DHern still walks way too many guys to ever be a high leverage reliever.

[Maxbialystock]

Everyone has biases, but I have not formed a negative opinion about your character based on your posts that would make me reflexively treat you with disdain, as you treat me. I know nothing about your life other than your views about baseball. The worst I can say about you is that your content is as boring and pointless as it is voluminous. Other than that, I have no reason to think you are not a good person.

 

"boring and pointless" ????!!!! quantity has a quality of its own, and moonslav provides us with a cornucopia of stats that I consider to be helpful and insightful.

[FredLynn]

Taylor was just really awful for his first few appearances from what I remember. Ottavino is a little more white knuckle than I'd like for my 8th inning guy. Sawamura has been fine. DHern still walks way too many guys to ever be a high leverage reliever.

 

And yet the numbers are what they are. IMO they have, at least recently, performed far above expectation-as have many of the SPs. Its a pleasant surprise. I had visions of this year being an unwatchable year. So far that has not happened. They are making it interesting.

[a700hitter]

"boring and pointless" ????!!!! quantity has a quality of its own, and moonslav provides us with a cornucopia of stats that I consider to be helpful and insightful.

By all means, enjoy his content. It was merely my opinion.

[moonslav59]

You didn't pick "winning," teams but rather WS-winning teams, which leaves out a whole bunch. Plus right now the talksox consensus seems to be these Sox are not WS-bound.

 

However, your stats do show that Cora has basically been able to stick with 5 starters, which is pretty amazing by itself, given the Sox are about 3 weeks from reaching the 81 game (1/2 season) mark.

 

At the same time, the average Sox starter goes just a tad over 5 innings, which leaves on average 3+ innings for the bullpen to cover. So leaving Whitlock there just might make sense for now.

 

Also interesting are the top six WAR's for the Sox pitching staff: Perez 1.4; Eovaldi 1.3; Pivetta 1.3; Whitlock 1.1; Barnes 1.0; and Richards .9.

 

The six next best are all bullpen: Ottavino .4; Hernandez .3; Sawamura .2; Taylor .2; Valdez .2.

 

Starter ERod is still at -.1.

 

I would argue that those 12 pitchers--5 starters and 7 relievers--are essentially the Sox pitching staff so far, or at least the somewhat reliable pitching staff (which is way better than I expected).

 

I picked only WS winning teams, because I think having a healthy solid 5 starters from wire to wire is a significant factor in going far in the playoffs.

 

Other Sox "winning teams" did not have this trend, fo the most part. Trust me. I looked.

[mvp 78]

And yet the numbers are what they are. IMO they have, at least recently, performed far above expectation-as have many of the SPs. Its a pleasant surprise. I had visions of this year being an unwatchable year. So far that has not happened. They are making it interesting.

 

I think it's been a mild improvement on what I expected. The big surprise to me isn't the pen, but how the starting rotation has been. I anticipated an injury for Eovaldi, ineffectiveness for Pivetta, an ok season for ERod, mediocrity from Perez and no idea what to think about Richards. The only let down has been ERod.

[Bellhorn04]

Ottavino is a little more white knuckle than I'd like for my 8th inning guy.

 

Just don't watch.

[mvp 78]

Not to be too political but...

 

I think all the content on here could be a little better. There's days I just phone it in too (very rarely though).

[mvp 78]

Just don't watch.

 

Ok?

[Bellhorn04]

Ok?

 

I think in all my time as a Sox fan, the only late inning reliever who consistently gave no white knuckles for a long period was 2013 Koji.

[a700hitter]

I think in all my time as a Sox fan, the only late inning reliever who consistently gave no white knuckles for a long period was 2013 Koji.

The guy who gave me an education about spin rate as I marveled that big league hitters swung under his 88 mph fastballs.

[notin]

I think in all my time as a Sox fan, the only late inning reliever who consistently gave no white knuckles for a long period was 2013 Koji.

 

Tom Gordon in 1998?

 

I was pretty relaxed with Hideki Okajima in 2007. After that first pitch he threw that year, of course...

[a700hitter]

Tom Gordon in 1998?

 

I was pretty relaxed with Hideki Okajima in 2007. After that first pitch he threw that year, of course...

Koji threw nothing but strikes. An inning where he threw 20 pitches was more rare than his 10 pitch outings.

[moonslav59]

Tom Gordon in 1998?

.

 

That was an amazing season.

 

46 for 46 saves and save opportunities, until the playoffs, of course.

 

79 innings.

 

1.008 WHIP, although Koji's was about half that!

 

Only Barnes has approached what Koji did, and it's only 60 games.

 

[Hugh2]

Rivera may be the gold standard for closers, he may hold the title of greatest closer of all time for a while, but nobody ever had a season like Koji in 2013. He was absolutely dominant, it was absurd how unhittable and consistent he was.

[moonslav59]

Here are some numbers on Sox RP'ers since I started following them in 1972:

 

Best Season By fWAR

3.2 Kimbrel '17

3.1 Papelbon '06

3.1 Koji '13

3.0 Papelbon '11

3.0 Burgmeier '80 (99 IP helped)

2.8 Papelbon '08

2.7 Gordon '98

2.4 Drago '79 & Lowe '00

2.3 Stanley '83 (145 IP)

2.1 Workman '19, Papelbon '07 & Lowe '98

2.0 Stanley '82 (168 IP)

 

WHIP

0.57 Koji '13

0.68 Kimbrel '17

0.77 Papelbon '07

0.78 Papelbon '06

0.79 Jeff Gray '91

0.90 Andrew Miller '14

0.92 Koji '14

0.93 Koji '15 & Papelbon '11

0.94 Keith Foulke '07

 

Other notables:

Tazawa 0.95 in '12, Bard 0.96 in '11 & Okajima 0.97 in '07

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Best WHIP from 1972-2021 (150+ IP) with the Sox:

 

0.81 Koji

0.91 Kimbrel

1.00 Papelbon

1.11 Bard

1.17 Aceves

1.17 Foulke

1.19 Embree

1.21 Tazawa & Lowe

1.22 Workman

1.23 Burgmeier & Jeff Rear-end

1.25 Way back Wasdin, Wake & Okajima

 

The worst?

1.63 Mark Clear

1.57 Rob Murphy

1.53 Steve Crawford

1.52 Diego Segui

1.47 Wes Gardner

1.45 Craig Breslow

[moonslav59]

Best Starter WHIP since 1972 (200+ IP)

 

0.97 Sale

0.98 Pedro

 

1.16 Clemens

1.18 Jenkins

1.19 Tiant

1.20 Saberhagen

1.21 Schilling

1.21 Price

1.22 Beckett

1.24 Darwin

1.25 Eck

1.26 Porcello & Arroyo

1.28 Pattin & Wise

1.29 Lester

1.30 Boyd & Wright

1.31 Eovaldi, Buch, ERod & Boddicker

 

ERA-

53 Pedro

66 Sale

69 Clemens

78 Viola

82 Saberhagen

83 Tiant & Schilling

84 Lester

85 Jenkins & Boddicker

86 Price

88 Moret

89 Lowe

90 Lee & Darwin

91 Steven Wright

 

 

The worst?

1.66 Avery

1.59 Mike Brown

1.58 T Bolton & J Suppan

1.56 J Sellers

1.52 Dick Pole & C Rainey

1.50 Mike Torrez

1.49 A Sele

 

ERA-

129 Suppan

127 Smithson

[Hugh2]

especially the second half. Koji's Whip (without looking it up) was something like .325 in the second half. He walked ONE guy after the all star break, he threw 89 and no one could touch him.

 

I loved the 2013 season.

[mvp 78]

I think in all my time as a Sox fan, the only late inning reliever who consistently gave no white knuckles for a long period was 2013 Koji.

 

I'm just not a big fan of giving a guy with 6.12 bb/9 high leverage innings. The walk rate is bottom 5th % of the league. What I saw last night wasn't pretty. I must apparently miss some of his dominant performances because he always looks a little shaky to me. That's probably in part to him having a really low whiff rate. He does a great job of limiting hard contact. Maybe as I get used to him pitching, I can be more comfortable with how he attacks hitters. It's just a little different.

[moonslav59]

Taking into account the era a pitcher played in, here are the all time MLB leaders in Adjusted ERA+ seasons since 1972:

 

291 Pedro '00

271 Maddux '94

260 Maddux '95

243 Pedro '99

229 Gooden '85

226 Clemens '05

222 Clemens '97

222 Greinke '15

219 Pedro '97

218 deGrom '18

217 Snell '18

215 Arrieta '15 & K Brown '96

211 Clemens '90 & Pedro '03

208 Guidry '78

205 Greinke '09

202 Pedro '02 & Kluber '17

 

Pedro has 5 of the top 18 seasons and Clemens 3.

 

Although one of Pedro's seasons was with Montreal, Sox fans have been gifted the chance to see 7 of the top 18 SP'er seasons in the past 3 decades.

 

 

 

 

:

Edited June 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Taking into account the era a pitcher played in, here are the all time MLB leaders in Adjusted ERA+ seasons since 1972:

 

291 Pedro '00

271 Maddux '94

260 Maddux '95

243 Pedro '99

229 Gooden '85

226 Clemens '05

222 Clemens '97

222 Greinke '15

219 Pedro '97

218 deGrom '18

217 Snell '18

215 Arrieta '15 & K Brown '96

211 Clemens '90 & Pedro '03

208 Guidry '78

205 Greinke '09

202 Pedro '02 & Kluber '17

 

Pedro has 5 of the top 18 seasons and Clemens 3.

 

Although one of Pedro's seasons was with Montreal, Sox fans have been gifted the chance to see 7 of the top 18 SP'er seasons in the past 3 decades.

 

 

 

 

:

 

97 was Clemens' first year with TOR. He was definitely not with BOS in 05 either.

[dgalehouse]

I think in all my time as a Sox fan, the only late inning reliever who consistently gave no white knuckles for a long period was 2013 Koji.

 

Koji had a sensational season in 2013 . As close to perfection as you can get. Somewhat surprisingly, he actually had "only" 21 saves , but seemed to set the tone for the whole magical season. What sometimes is overlooked is that he had a very fine career , albeit much of it somewhat under the radar, in addition to 2013.

[Bellhorn04]

Koji had a sensational season in 2013 . As close to perfection as you can get. Somewhat surprisingly, he actually had "only" 21 saves , but seemed to set the tone for the whole magical season. What sometimes is overlooked is that he had a very fine career , albeit much of it somewhat under the radar, in addition to 2013.

 

He only became the closer in June or July, that's why the save numbers weren't so high.

[dgalehouse]

He only became the closer in June or July, that's why the save numbers weren't so high.

 

That's right. I didn't mean that to diminish his accomplishments in any way. Just that it is probably surprising to a lot of fans.

[moonslav59]

especially the second half. Koji's Whip (without looking it up) was something like .325 in the second half. He walked ONE guy after the all star break, he threw 89 and no one could touch him.

 

I loved the 2013 season.

 

Some think 2013 was some kind of freaky season, and it was startling in some ways, but Koji had several season in a row with some fantastic number with the bell curve peaking in 2012.

 

Yes, the second half of 2013. (The playoffs were awesome, too.)

 

1st half/2nd half

OPS Against: .514/.231

WHIP 0.756/0.313

K/BB ratio: 7.50/41.00

 

1 BB, 0 HR and just 1 ER in the last 32 innings of 2013.

 

He had an 11 IP stretch of no hit ball and finished the regular season with 18.2 IP of 1 hit ball, 0 BB and just 1 ER (0.48 ERA).

 

He had another stretch in June with 8.2 IP, 1 H, 1BB, 0 ER.

 

Back to the career numbers surrounding 2013:

 

WHIP:

0.955 '10

0.723 '11

0.639 '12

0.565 '13 (almost a perfect trend line)

0.917 '14 (a bit of a spike on a bell curve)

0.917 '15

0.957 '16

 

Career Leaders since 1972 (400+ IP)

 

0.83 Koji

0.92 Jansen

0.95 Kimbrel

0.97 Mo

0.99 Doolittle

1.00 Wagner & Eck

1.01 Chapman

1.02 O'Day

1.03 Papelbon

 

14. Foulke at 1.04

19. Miller at 1.08

 

Again, Sox fans have seen some of the best!

[moonslav59]

97 was Clemens' first year with TOR. He was definitely not with BOS in 05 either.

 

Yup, my bad. Forgot to look at his years.

[moonslav59]

That's right. I didn't mean that to diminish his accomplishments in any way. Just that it is probably surprising to a lot of fans.

 

Makes you wonder why a guy with his great seasons before 2013 hadn't become a closer by then.

 

Reminds me of my freshman year at ND, when Joe Montana was the third string QB on opening day. An injury and a poor half by the 1 & 2 thrust Joe into the limelight, and he never looked back.

 

(We beat Earl Campbell's #1 Texas team in the Cotton Bowl, that year '77-'78).