A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

All stats are hindsight. LOL! Otherwise, they would be projections.

 

Before the year started, a better comp would be Renfroe or Marwin as the money was similar to what we saved on Beni.

 

You chose someone getting paid twice what the Beni deal saved us, because Kike has under produced, and it makes Bloom look worse.

 

Call it whatever you want, but if Kike was hitting well, you would have brought him up as a comp.

 

Period.

[a700hitter]

Before the year started, a better comp would be Renfroe or Marwin as the money was similar to what we saved on Beni.

 

You chose someone getting paid twice what the Beni deal saved us, because Kike has under produced, and it makes Bloom look worse.

 

Call it whatever you want, but if Kike was hitting well, you would have brought him up as a comp.

 

Period.

How could I? That would be idiotic if he was hitting well.

[moonslav59]

I expect Downs to be an everyday player, I hope he reaches his ceiling and is an all star talent.

 

I expect the Sox to replace him if he can’t reach that potential.

 

Easier said than done, but always easier when you have system depth.

 

I think Downs is hard to project. All prospects are speculation to varying degrees, but for some reason I have no clue on Downs.

 

I don't feel super high on him, but maybe it's because he hasn't started out too well.

 

soxprospects have him ranked 2nd. That's higher than Duran and Jimenez.

 

For what it's worth, BTV ranks our prospects as such:

 

24.7 Downs

24.2 Casas

19.5 Duran

13.8 R Hernandez

10.8 Jimenez

[moonslav59]

How could I? That would be idiotic if he was hitting well.

 

That's the hindsight aspect of your choice of comps.

 

And, it's only idiotic if you're trying to make bloom look good- something you clearly will never do.

[Nick]

“Big, physical kid,” Bloom said about Gambrell. “Power arsenal. He’s got two different fastballs, a breaking ball and a changeup. And this is a guy who because of the strength that he has, has the chance to be a workhorse in some capacity. Still obviously a long way to go for him.”

 

Gambrell is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. He is 2-1 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .190 batting average against, 18 strikeouts and seven walks in five starts (22 ⅔ innings) in High A this season.

 

It’s likely the Red Sox will send him to High-A Greenville.

 

“I would anticipate him being at the same level with us as we get to know him,” Bloom said. “But he’s been a starting pitcher and has a chance to continue in that role all the way up to the big leagues. We’ll obviously see how it goes.

 

 

“I think what happens when you get these types of players is there’s a lot of different paths they can take,” Bloom added. “And it’s great to add the talent to the organization. In those two guys (De La Rosa and Gambrell), we feel we got two guys who have a chance to be starting pitchers in the big leagues. And you’ve got to fill up your system with starting pitching prospects to have the pipeline that we want to have in terms of that constant flow of pitching from our system.”

 

I trust Bloom. You don't think he's excited about the return we received for Beni? Think again.

[Hugh2]

From the report: average speed, average arm, minimal projection remaining in his frame, lack a standout carrying tool, but will show average to better in all 5 tools. Speed is his weakest tool.

 

When I saw him in Fort Myers in 2020, he struck me as very average in all aspects. Duran on the other hand has noticeably plus power and speed. I have been wrong before, but I am not going to invest in his rookie card.

 

5, above average tools across the board is a first division starter. He’s a consensus top 100 guy all around baseball.

 

Why would at least not hope he’s going to take over 2nd? Who’s blocking

[Hugh2]

Downs is also two years younger at the same level:

[Hugh2]

I think Downs is hard to project. All prospects are speculation to varying degrees, but for some reason I have no clue on Downs.

 

I don't feel super high on him, but maybe it's because he hasn't started out too well.

 

soxprospects have him ranked 2nd. That's higher than Duran and Jimenez.

 

For what it's worth, BTV ranks our prospects as such:

 

24.7 Downs

24.2 Casas

19.5 Duran

13.8 R Hernandez

10.8 Jimenez

 

Absolutely, but when you have a top prospect who can play a position that’s not locked down at the big league level you are going to plan on them taking it over.

[moonslav59]

5, above average tools across the board is a first division starter. He’s a consensus top 100 guy all around baseball.

 

Why would at least not hope he’s going to take over 2nd? Who’s blocking

 

Because it would mean he was wrong about Bloom.

 

He'd rather the Sox suck and gloat than have to admit he was wrong on Bloom.

[Nick]

Sox saved $3.8M by trading away Beni. Beni is in A3 contract year in 2022 then becomes a free agent.

 

Sox used $3.1M of the money to sign Renfroe. Renfroe is in A3 and A4 for 2022 and 2023, then becomes a free agent.

 

Even without the PTBNL guys, I think we came out ahead.

[Hugh2]

Downs is in the same boat as Duran. Duran doesn’t really have anyone blocking him as Boston does not have 3 MLB starting caliber outfielders. So we all agree Duran is taking an outfield spot when he’s ready, why would we not give a prospect, at the same level, in the same position the same expectation.

 

Do we love Kike that much?

[Nick]

Downs is in the same boat as Duran. Duran doesn’t really have anyone blocking him as Boston does not have 3 MLB starting caliber outfielders. So we all agree Duran is taking an outfield spot when he’s ready, why would we not give a prospect, at the same level, in the same position the same expectation.

 

Do we love Kike that much?

 

Nope, so far he's shown he is a valuable utility player.

[a700hitter]

That's the hindsight aspect of your choice of comps.

 

And, it's only idiotic if you're trying to make bloom look good- something you clearly will never do.

 

Making GMs look good is not my thing. He has a media and press relations organization to do that.

[a700hitter]

5, above average tools across the board is a first division starter. He’s a consensus top 100 guy all around baseball.

 

Why would at least not hope he’s going to take over 2nd? Who’s blocking

The report doesn’t say that. It says “will show average to better in all 5” tools. What if he is average in all 5 or 4 of the 5? How does that project?

[Hugh2]

The report doesn’t say that. It says “will show average to better in all 5” tools. What if he is average in all 5 or 4 of the 5? How does that project?

 

Then he’s a much better 2nd baseman than Kike Hernandez and for less money.

[Hugh2]

We could do this with Duran too. Same scouts say he’s a potential fringe starting outfielder, with the ceiling of an everyday starter. What if he doesn’t reach his ceiling?

 

He could probably still carve out a job on this roster but I suspect we’d want more from a starter.

[moonslav59]

Making GMs look good is not my thing. He has a media and press relations organization to do that.

 

You sure did your best to make DD look good without it being your "job."

 

You clearly dislike Bloom and do all you can to focus on what he has done wrong.

 

That's "your thing."

[a700hitter]

You sure did your best to make DD look good without it being your "job."

 

You clearly dislike Bloom and do all you can to focus on what he has done wrong.

 

That's "your thing."

3 consecutive Division Titles and a World Championship is hard to criticize.

 

i doled out criticism to Theo and Ben too.

Edited June 7, 2021 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

Then he’s a much better 2nd baseman than Kike Hernandez and for less money.

is his ceiling Kike?

[Hugh2]

Jester Downs is the #2 prospect in the Sox system, his ceiling is much higher than Kike Hernandez.

[Larry Cook]

Jester Downs is the #2 prospect in the Sox system, his ceiling is much higher than Kike Hernandez.

 

What did hang’em Chaim see in Hernandez?

[moonslav59]

Jester Downs is the #2 prospect in the Sox system, his ceiling is much higher than Kike Hernandez.

 

Is Kike's ceiling his two best years?

 

.836 in 2015 (218 PAs)

 

.806 in 2018 (462 PAs)

 

If you add them together, it would look something like this:

 

680 PAs

 

28 HRs

 

.270 BA

.340 OBP

.475 SLG

.815 OPS

 

That would be a nice ceiling to reach. (If that's what we agree Kike's ceiling is.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

What did hang’em Chaim see in Hernandez?

 

It's been 2 months.

[Larry Cook]

It's been 2 months.

 

Fair enough! We can revisit this again next month!

[a700hitter]

Jester Downs is the #2 prospect in the Sox system, his ceiling is much higher than Kike Hernandez.

i hope so, otherwise I hope Bloom flips him in a trade.

[moonslav59]

Fair enough! We can revisit this again next month!

 

So, give final judgment after 25% of his contract length within the context of the whole league hitting much lower than it has since 1968.

 

Makes sense to me.

[Nick]

We're 13 games over .500 for first time. Finished the tough road trip 4-3. The team is hanging in there.

[Nick]

As bad as Dalbec has looked (I'm his fan), his ops of .625 is not far behind Kike's .654. Kike went 0-4 with 3 K's.

 

More concerning is Santana. I'm beginning to think his 2019 season was an aberration. He's BA is .125.

 

Even more concerning will be if Cora bats him first again.

[moonslav59]

As bad as Dalbec has looked (I'm his fan), his ops of .625 is not far behind Kike's .654. Kike went 0-4 with 3 K's.

 

More concerning is Santana. I'm beginning to think his 2019 season was an aberration. He's BA is .125.

 

Even more concerning will be if Cora bats him first again.

 

Nobody jumps out as a clear choice for leadoff without hurting another key batting order slot. I guess Santana's speed and the hope that he's played enough games, this year, that one might expect a groove-finding.

 

Had anyone said the argument for Arroyo as our lead off man been stated back in March, the poster might have been banned or institutionalized.

 

Marwin seems to be heating up, but I'd want a longer sample before giving the slot to him.

 

Vaz/Plawecki might be my second choice behind Christian.

[a700hitter]

As bad as Dalbec has looked (I'm his fan), his ops of .625 is not far behind Kike's .654. Kike went 0-4 with 3 K's.

 

More concerning is Santana. I'm beginning to think his 2019 season was an aberration. He's BA is .125.

 

Even more concerning will be if Cora bats him first again.

We have a very thin OF.