A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No way they bring Casa up. He has a month in AA after skipping high A. If he went to college he’d be in this years draft.

 

Casas is leaping across levels in single bounds... (often, they're extra bases). I can easily see the Sox bringing him up in September for taste of an MLB stretch run. He could be the starting first baseman in '22.

[Nick]

Throw enough teenagers at the wall and hope one of them sticks. If not, the time horizon is so long that no one will remember.

 

Wischowski is 22, not a teenager.

 

Gambrell is 23, not a teenager.

 

De La Rosa is 19, a teenager.

 

Valedz is 19, a teenager.

 

You and I agree on many things, especially when it comes to DD's contribution. I don't want to pick a fight with you.

 

Just a FYI.

[moonslav59]

If I had to guess, Duran comes up sometime between the end of the Olympic games and September.

 

Casas between June 2022 and September 2022.

 

Downs & Bello September 2022.

 

Jimenez, Yorke & Aldo Ramirez maybe 2023.

 

Seabold maybe as soon as he's he's healthy.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Coming off his sub-.500 OPS season, it’s not like he was “sell high” material...

 

The only way to sell high on Beni would have been to keep and hope for a big rebound. A risky strategy in itself.

[moonslav59]

Wischowski is 22, not a teenager.

 

Gambrell is 23, not a teenager.

 

De La Rosa is 19, a teenager.

 

Valedz is 19, a teenager.

 

You and I agree on many things, especially when it comes to DD's contribution. I don't want to pick a fight with you.

 

Just a FYI.

 

Winckowski was even invited to spring training (and did well).

 

He will likely be in AAA by the end of the season.

 

The others are more "long shots," but they have the tools and are more promising than many other low level players.

 

The money saved allowed us to sign Renfroe.

 

I would not trade Renfroe for Beni, right now- straight up.

 

Our farm was weak and thin.

 

You can't fix it with magic.

[Hugh2]

Casas is leaping across levels in single bounds... (often, they're extra bases). I can easily see the Sox bringing him up in September for taste of an MLB stretch run. He could be the starting first baseman in '22.

 

There’s already a roster crunch coming on the 40 man. They’re not adding Casas if they don’t have too. I think they will go out and get a stop gap 1b for 2022 with the hopes that Casas might push his way up and take the job mid 2022.

 

He’s young, think of it this way. Mookie Betts, who is the epitome of someone rushing through the minors had over 1300 plate appearances before he was promoted, Casas has 584 right now. Betts had 679 PA’s above low A when he was called up Casas is at 79.

 

Casas is not an option just because the box score looks good. They’re still developing him. And while he appears to be on the fast track, 2021 is just way to soon. They’re not going to waste a year of control and have to boot someone off the 40 man for him.....YET.

[Hugh2]

Another example is Bogaerts, who had over 1600 plate appearances in the minors.

[moonslav59]

There’s already a roster crunch coming on the 40 man. They’re not adding Casas if they don’t have too. I think they will go out and get a stop gap 1b for 2022 with the hopes that Casas might push his way up and take the job mid 2022.

 

He’s young, think of it this way. Mookie Betts, who is the epitome of someone rushing through the minors had over 1300 plate appearances before he was promoted, Casas has 584 right now. Betts had 679 PA’s above low A when he was called up Casas is at 79.

 

Casas is not an option just because the box score looks good. They’re still developing him. And while he appears to be on the fast track, 2021 is just way to soon. They’re not going to waste a year of control and have to boot someone off the 40 man for him.....YET.

 

We might not have a real 40man roster crunch, this winter, but I agree on Casas.

 

People see some studs jumping to the bigs and think anyone and everyone can.

 

Sure, some GMs might wait too long, and the super 2 rule keeps some deserving prospects down, but there is nothing about Casas that screams he is ML ready now or will be in just a couple hundred more PAs.

 

BTW, he is rule 5 in winter 2022, so he likely will be given a shot at some point in 2022, assuming he is deserving of one by then.

 

Speaking of this winter's 40 man roster issues, we do have a few rule 5 players we will or may want to protect.

 

Jarren Duran (if he's not added before December)

Jeter Downs

Brayan Bello

Gilberto Jimenez

Josh Winchowski

 

Maybe?

Thaddeus Ward

Durbin Feltman

Frank German

Kelb Ort

Tyreque Reed

 

Let's say we protect 6-7 from this list.

 

They fill the 6 free agent slots vacated by Barnes, ERod, Ottavino, Marwin, Santana & Workman, leaving us at 39 or 40.

 

We certainly will be active in the free agent market, perhaps hyper active. We will need at least a closer (re-sign Barnes?), a top set-up man (bring back Ottavino?) and a SP'er (ERod back?).

 

Here are the possible trade and DFA candidates currently on our 40 man roster:

 

Trade someone who will be a FA after 2022? I think not.

JD (has opt out, this winter), Bogey (opt out after 2022), Eovaldi, Kike, Plawecki or the 2021 team option players: Richards, Perez & Andriese (Sawamura-option after '22)

 

More likely, some players from this list:

 

Brandon Brennan

Marcus Wilson

Matt Andriese

Hudson Potts

Franchy Cordero

Connor Wong

Eduard Bazardo

Jay Groome

Jonathan Arauz

 

I see 4 or 5 easy names on this list, which might be how many FAs we sign.

[moonslav59]

I know we are in the midst of a playoff run, and we can't keep throwing a sub .600 bat in the 1B slot in the line-up much longer, but we have to find out about Dalbec and Chavis, this year. I doubt we keep both in 2022, if they continue struggling. This was supposed to be the decision year on some of these borderline players, but we done went ahead and started winning, and messed up all those plans!

[mvp 78]

If I had to guess, Duran comes up sometime between the end of the Olympic games and September.

 

Casas between June 2022 and September 2022.

 

Downs & Bello September 2022.

 

Jimenez, Yorke & Aldo Ramirez maybe 2023.

 

Seabold maybe as soon as he's he's healthy.

 

 

Casas is the opening day 1b next season.

[mvp 78]

There’s already a roster crunch coming on the 40 man. They’re not adding Casas if they don’t have too. I think they will go out and get a stop gap 1b for 2022 with the hopes that Casas might push his way up and take the job mid 2022.

 

He’s young, think of it this way. Mookie Betts, who is the epitome of someone rushing through the minors had over 1300 plate appearances before he was promoted, Casas has 584 right now. Betts had 679 PA’s above low A when he was called up Casas is at 79.

 

Casas is not an option just because the box score looks good. They’re still developing him. And while he appears to be on the fast track, 2021 is just way to soon. They’re not going to waste a year of control and have to boot someone off the 40 man for him.....YET.

 

Casas would have many more AB's if 2020 had an MiLB season. I think they will move him along at a normal pace and pretend he played at A+ last year.

[mvp 78]

Why not try grabbing a guy like Jesus Aguilar? He's on a one year deal for a team that is going nowhere. I don't think he'd cost much prospect capital either.

[notin]

Casas is the opening day 1b next season.

 

Now him I can see waiting until June-ish for Super Two reasons. Or later to delay free agency. With Duran, I can see trying to avoid Super Two status, but there is no reason to push free agency back a full year to gain control of his age 31 season...

[mvp 78]

Trade simulator gives Chavis virtually the same value as Aguilar.

[Hugh2]

Casas would have many more AB's if 2020 had an MiLB season. I think they will move him along at a normal pace and pretend he played at A+ last year.

 

Yes he would, and that’s not his fault, but he still lacks those abs. That’s real game experience vs pitchers. Just because every other minor leaguer didn’t get to play last year doesn’t mean he’s any closer to the majors.

 

He’s close, but I just don’t see this year as realistic.

[Hugh2]

I think we see Casas sometime between June 1st-September 1st of 2022. Very good chance it’s on the early side of that range.

 

And that’s a fast track to the majors.

[a700hitter]

Wischowski is 22, not a teenager.

 

Gambrell is 23, not a teenager.

 

De La Rosa is 19, a teenager.

 

Valedz is 19, a teenager.

 

You and I agree on many things, especially when it comes to DD's contribution. I don't want to pick a fight with you.

 

Just a FYI.

one of the guys is only 18. And all of these guys have had their development stunted by one year. Development-wise they are all very inexperienced and Bloom says that the 2 teens are several years away.

[notin]

one of the guys is only 18. And all of these guys have had their development stunted by one year. Development-wise they are all very inexperienced and Bloom says that the 2 teens are several years away.

 

The flip side is that it’s possible that both Winckowski and Gambrell debut this season. With Winkowski being far more likely...

[Hugh2]

We might not have a real 40man roster crunch, this winter, but I agree on Casas.

 

People see some studs jumping to the bigs and think anyone and everyone can.

 

Sure, some GMs might wait too long, and the super 2 rule keeps some deserving prospects down, but there is nothing about Casas that screams he is ML ready now or will be in just a couple hundred more PAs.

 

BTW, he is rule 5 in winter 2022, so he likely will be given a shot at some point in 2022, assuming he is deserving of one by then.

 

Speaking of this winter's 40 man roster issues, we do have a few rule 5 players we will or may want to protect.

 

Jarren Duran (if he's not added before December)

Jeter Downs

Brayan Bello

Gilberto Jimenez

Josh Winchowski

 

Maybe?

Thaddeus Ward

Durbin Feltman

Frank German

Kelb Ort

Tyreque Reed

 

Let's say we protect 6-7 from this list.

 

They fill the 6 free agent slots vacated by Barnes, ERod, Ottavino, Marwin, Santana & Workman, leaving us at 39 or 40.

 

We certainly will be active in the free agent market, perhaps hyper active. We will need at least a closer (re-sign Barnes?), a top set-up man (bring back Ottavino?) and a SP'er (ERod back?).

 

Here are the possible trade and DFA candidates currently on our 40 man roster:

 

Trade someone who will be a FA after 2022? I think not.

JD (has opt out, this winter), Bogey (opt out after 2022), Eovaldi, Kike, Plawecki or the 2021 team option players: Richards, Perez & Andriese (Sawamura-option after '22)

 

More likely, some players from this list:

 

Brandon Brennan

Marcus Wilson

Matt Andriese

Hudson Potts

Franchy Cordero

Connor Wong

Eduard Bazardo

Jay Groome

Jonathan Arauz

 

I see 4 or 5 easy names on this list, which might be how many FAs we sign.

 

You’re going to lose guys on that maybe list, I have to look at this more later, I want to look into who has to be added to the 40 man next year. There’s more than what you listed but most of them are inconsequential.

 

There’s not going to be a roster crunch because they’re going to end up trading some of those guys. But until that happens you’re looking at one.

 

I’m sure it will work itself out, but next year will be interesting 2 years out of Covid. Might be more Garret Whitlocks out there.

 

Not sure what we do with Ward now. He’s likely out until late 2022/2023

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Chavis was worse than Dalbec while up - even if line looks ok, chase rate was brutal. He hasn't fixed anything. (he went deep as I typed this of course)

 

Santana is a bench guy at this point. I'm not sure I'm in a rush to just jettison him. He's on shaky ground tho, to be sure.

 

Santana may be the next guy DFA'd. I bet Franchy comes back after the ASB if he continues to hit.

[Nick]

one of the guys is only 18. And all of these guys have had their development stunted by one year. Development-wise they are all very inexperienced and Bloom says that the 2 teens are several years away.

 

Throw in the obligatory Tommy John for pitchers and well you know.....yeah it's a long shot.

[Nick]

For us old timers, are we headed for 1968? You know, one guy hitting over .300 in AL?

[Bellhorn04]

For us old timers, are we headed for 1968? You know, one guy hitting over .300 in AL?

 

Bogaerts .321

JDM .319

 

I would predict at least one of them will be over .300.

 

Maybe the sticky stuff crackdown will lift averages a bit.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Cora downplayed the Chris Sale reliever theory on @OMFonWEEI. “He’s a guy you put out there every five days.”

[moonslav59]

You’re going to lose guys on that maybe list, I have to look at this more later, I want to look into who has to be added to the 40 man next year. There’s more than what you listed but most of them are inconsequential.

 

There’s not going to be a roster crunch because they’re going to end up trading some of those guys. But until that happens you’re looking at one.

 

I’m sure it will work itself out, but next year will be interesting 2 years out of Covid. Might be more Garret Whitlocks out there.

 

Not sure what we do with Ward now. He’s likely out until late 2022/2023

 

Here is the full rule 5 list:

 

Jecorrah Arnold

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Jarren Duran

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Robinson Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Michael Osinski

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Beiker Pineda

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Wilker Vargas

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

[Nick]

MLB.com is showing Syracuse vs Worcester in Education Day matinee...first ever.

 

Announcer on Cordero, "he's hitting .405 so that means he gets a hit 40% of the time". Announcer is explaining everything about baseball. Distance between bags, concept of strike zone, on and on so forth, good stuff.

 

Imagine Mr. Rogers speaking.....

 

Duran gets called out on third strike, Marcus Wilson homers, Cordero bunts for a hit away from the shift, Chavis a base hit to left field, OF COURSE CORDERO GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN SECOND AND THIRD AND IS THROWN OUT.

 

"Jeter Downs is 23 years old, I know many of you think that's old, but he's actually young for baseball"....that maybe the best line.....

 

Funny stuff.....

Edited June 9, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

MLB.com is showing Syracuse vs Worcester in Education Day matinee...first ever.

 

Announcer on Cordero, "he's hitting .405 so that means he gets a hit 40% of the time". Announcer is explaining everything about baseball. Distance between bags, concept of strike zone, on and on so forth, good stuff.

 

Imagine Mr. Rogers speaking.....

 

Duran gets called out on third strike, Marcus Wilson homers, Cordero bunts for a hit away from the shift, Chavis a base hit to left field, OF COURSE CORDERO GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN SECOND AND THIRD AND IS THROWN OUT.

 

"Jeter Downs is 23 years old, I know many of you think that's old, but he's actually young for baseball"....that maybe the best line.....

 

Funny stuff.....

 

"Kids, you know how you asked Santa for that one really big present, but you got something that wasn't as great? That's what happened when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is the full rule 5 list:

 

Jecorrah Arnold

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Jarren Duran

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Robinson Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Michael Osinski

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Beiker Pineda

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Wilker Vargas

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

 

If Bloom makes an impact trade, one guy to go off the list will be Downs. He's blocked at his position by the team leader, so unless the Sox are worried about X's opt-out, they are showcasing Downs at Triple A shortstop. Otherwise, if he were really the second baseman of the future -- which could be next season (many experts predicted this summer) -- then why wouldn't he be getting steady reps at second now to help his muscles' memories?

 

If all the Sox need is longterm back-up depth at shortstop they could play Arauz or someone else there every day in Wooster.

[Hugh2]

If Bloom makes an impact trade, one guy to go off the list will be Downs. He's blocked at his position by the team leader, so unless the Sox are worried about X's opt-out, they are showcasing Downs at Triple A shortstop. Otherwise, if he were really the second baseman of the future -- which could be next season (many experts predicted this summer) -- then why wouldn't he be getting steady reps at second now to help his muscles' memories?

 

If all the Sox need is longterm back-up depth at shortstop they could play Arauz or someone else there every day in Wooster.

 

It’s been long thought that Downs moves to 2B. He’s not blocked, if he can hit he will do well. Good defense, runs the bases well too.

 

I can’t fully explain why they wait to move guys, but it’s not abnormal for them to be keeping him at SS. They probably think he can easily make the transition to 2nd easily so why decrease his value?

 

I actually agree he could be traded, but I don’t necessarily think he’s blocked.

[moonslav59]

It’s not like Bogey is a great defensive SS, and he has an opt out after 2022, so keeping Downs at SS makes a lot of sense, for now.