A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right now, Chavis' hustle needs to be in the lineup. He has been a spark since his call-up, and is just flying around the bases. He also had a clutch oppo hit in the 9th last night; maybe he's adjusting (or just swinging late?).

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

With Santana's arrival tonight and Arroyo coming off the IL soon, it's going to be interesting how they set up the roster and bench.

 

Marwin has been a bit unlucky (.277 wOBA, .324 xwOBA), but he should probably start hitting.

 

186/318/271, 589 OPS April

226/262/323, 584 OPS May

[mvp 78]

Right now, Chavis' hustle needs to be in the lineup. He has been a spark since his call-up, and is just flying around the bases. He also had a clutch oppo hit in the 9th last night; maybe he's adjusting (or just swinging late?).

 

That 290 OBP needs to be better though.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Marwin Gonzalez is at +4 DRS playing multiple positions. Christian Vazquez is +3 and Rafael Devers is now +1.

 

His footwork and his throwing has improved a lot in the last 3-4 weeks.

 

Devers was minus-4 last year in the short season, so +1 is big for him.

[moonslav59]

My assumption is that Santana has lots of versatility, but a very limited ceiling. I think I would give a shot to Chavis instead. I bet we see Santana scuffle.

 

Santana has already shown a very high ceiling- higher than anyone can expect from Chavis, Kike, Arroyo, Marwin (without trash cans), Cordero and maybe even others.

 

He has a history: 2 very good seasons.

Edited May 21, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

@byJulianMack

Christian Arroyo will officially begin a rehab assignent tonight, per WoooSox.

[mvp 78]

Santana has already shown a very high ceiling- higher than anyone can expect from Chavis, Kike, Arroyo, Marwin (without trash cans), Cordero and maybe even others.

 

He has a history: 2 very good seasons.

 

Not sure he'll be able to replicate his rookie year where he had a 405 BABIP.

 

His ISO in 2019 of 251 was 100 points higher than any other season. This was notably the juiced ball season too. Think he can do that with the new ball?

 

He was lucky enough to have lightning strike twice. It ain't happening again.

[moonslav59]

Not sure he'll be able to replicate his rookie year where he had a 405 BABIP.

 

His ISO in 2019 of 251 was 100 points higher than any other season. This was notably the juiced ball season too. Think he can do that with the new ball?

 

He was lucky enough to have lightning strike twice. It ain't happening again.

 

Even if you account for the "juiced ball," he's had two very good years that some players can only dream of having.

 

He had an OPS+ of 112 in 2018, which adjusts for everyone's better offense. His 130 OPS+ his rookie year might be unstainable, but 400+ PAs is a much bigger sample size than Chavis of Dlabec had with their nice stretches.

 

I'm not saying I like him better than everyone I listed, but his ceiling has to be, at least a 112 OPS+.

[notin]

Even if you account for the "juiced ball," he's had two very good years that some players can only dream of having.

 

He had an OPS+ of 112 in 2018, which adjusts for everyone's better offense. His 130 OPS+ his rookie year might be unstainable, but 400+ PAs is a much bigger sample size than Chavis of Dlabec had with their nice stretches.

 

I'm not saying I like him better than everyone I listed, but his ceiling has to be, at least a 112 OPS+.

 

 

And his much more likely floor is the 55 OPS+ he had for the four seasons between his two good years...

[moonslav59]

And his much more likely floor is the 55 OPS+ he had for the four seasons between his two good years...

 

Oh, I'm perfectly fine with anyone who says he might do that poorly, too, but we're talking about improving on Cordero's 29 OPS+.

[notin]

Oh, I'm perfectly fine with anyone who says he might do that poorly, too, but we're talking about improving on Cordero's 29 OPS+.

 

I think if you let both play the season out, Cordero would outhit Santana...

[moonslav59]

I think if you let both play the season out, Cordero would outhit Santana...

 

I wouldn't bet against that, but I think Cordero needs to be demoted with the idea he might be back, once he works things out.

 

Santana is hot and just about ready. Let's see what he can do, while letting Cordero work on some kinks.

[moonslav59]

So we finally DFA'd Brice.

 

Santana's addition now gives us 13 every day and 13 pitchers. Is this the first time we only had 13 pitchers, this season?

 

Who goes down when Arroyo comes to town?

 

Chavis, Cordero or ____?

 

[Bellhorn04]

So we finally DFA'd Brice.

 

Santana's addition now gives us 13 every day and 13 pitchers. Is this the first time we only had 13 pitchers, this season?

 

Who goes down when Arroyo comes to town?

 

Chavis, Cordero or ____?

 

 

Cordero I would think.

[moonslav59]

Cordero I would think.

 

It makes sense to give Chavis a long look and Cordero time to work on the holes in his swing.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn't bet against that, but I think Cordero needs to be demoted with the idea he might be back, once he works things out.

 

Santana is hot and just about ready. Let's see what he can do, while letting Cordero work on some kinks.

 

I'm with you on that. It's in Cordero's interest and the Sox interest to let him work out his problems, if he can, at the AAA level. The Brice demotion made the best sense for the time being.

[Larry Cook]

Is Cordero past his expiration date?

[moonslav59]

Is Cordero past his expiration date?

 

The milk has soured.

[moonslav59]

8 AL Teams within 3.5 Games

--- BOS

.5 CWS

1.0 HOU

1.0 TBR

1.5 NYY

1.5 OAK

1.5 TBR

3.0 CLE

3.5 TOR

 

(SEA & KC are within 5 games of the WC slot.)

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

 

1.015 JD

1.000 Santana

.992 Bogey

.945 Devers

.823 Verdugo

.806 Chavis

 

.775 Arauz

.776 Plawecki

.757 Hernandez

.710 Arroyo

 

.696 Vaz

.631 Renfroe

 

.572 Gonzalez

 

.462 Cordero

 

Some small sample sizes, here, but it's nice seeing some names close to our top 4 hitters and others moving up from the 400's, 500's and 600's to 600's and 700's.

 

Here were the numbers on April 30:

 

1.175 JD

.958 Devers

.915 Bogey

.863 Verdugo

 

.763 Arroyo

 

.671 Kike

.638 Vaz

.619 Dalbec

 

.589 Marwin

 

.485 Renfroe

.471 Plawecki

.452 Cordero

[moonslav59]

Season Sox OPS Against (May OPS Against)

 

SP

.634 Pivetta (.662)

.647 Eovaldi (.647)

.674 Perez (.595)

.748 Richards (.722)

.802 ERod (.951)

 

RP

.371 Barnes (.410)

.400 Valdez (.451)

.603 Ottavino (.600)

.654 Whitlock (1.063)

.689 DHern (.541)

.789 Taylor (.259)

.806 Houck (n/a)

.839 Sawamura (.913)

.867 Brice (.984)

.917 Andriese (1.268)

 

[moonslav59]

April>May Player

1.175>.818 JD

.958>.926 Devers

.915>1.092 Bogey

.863>.777 Verdugo

.763>.432 Arroyo

.671>1.045 Kike

.638>.775 Vaz

.619>.782 Dalbec

.589>.549 Marwin

.485>.753 Renfroe

.471>1.233 Plawecki

.452>.475 Cordero

 

This shows why using what you did recently to project what is to come is not a good idea. Only 3 players stayed within 95 points of their April OPS. Only 4 within 137 and 5 within 163.

-357 JD

-96 Verdugo

-40 Marwin

-32 Devers

+23 Cordero

+137 Vaz

+163 Dalbec

+177 Bogey

+268 Renfroe

+374 Kike

+762 Plawecki

[Nick]

Renfroe is growing on me. I thought he's just a placeholder for someone else. I think he's 29, he's earning $3.1M this year with two more years of team control. It fits with Bloom's approach.

 

I can see him part of core group going forward. LF Verdugo (25) CF Duran (24) RF Renfroe (29) is how I see it. I also don't see Kike being 2B of future, I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see if Arroyo (26) can hold that spot. I see Kike playing full time being inserted at multiple positions. I'd love to see Chavis next year given the opportunity to expand his playing time by working him in LF.

 

We'll need to pay whatever it takes to keep Devers. He's just fun to watch. If you give me choice, I'd take Devers over Betts, his youth and power trumps Betts.

Edited May 22, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

It's odd to think right now, our problem starters are Eovaldi and E Rod. I'm going to say it and keep in mind I was all for Sox extending Eovaldi. I've never seen a pitcher that throws so hard that can't miss the bats as little as Eovaldi. For our pitching gurus, what's up with that?

[moonslav59]

Renfroe is growing on me. I thought he's just a placeholder for someone else. I think he's 29, he's earning $3.1M this year with two more years of team control. It fits with Bloom's approach.

 

I can see him part of core group going forward. LF Verdugo (25) CF Duran (24) RF Renfroe (29) is how I see it. I also don't see Kike being 2B of future, I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see if Arroyo (26) can hold that spot. I see Kike playing full time being inserted at multiple positions. I'd love to see Chavis next year opportunity to expand his playing time to include LF.

 

This is a make or break season for Chavis, IMO, at least with the Sox. (I still think we'll trade him at the deadline.) He'll either win an important role, this year or be gone. With 5-6 Rule 5 players to be added, this winter, he has to prove he's a better hope.

 

Renfroe still sucks against RHPs, and that is the larger split, so I'm not sure he can ever be viewed at our FT RF'er. If Duran proves he can be a plus, it would take a lot of pressure off our OF situation and needs going forward, but that is no given. Maybe Kike keeps playing the OF vs RHPs.

 

v RHP

LF: Kike

CF: Duran

RF: Verdugo

 

v LHP

LF: Verdugo

CF: Duran

RF: Renfroe

(Kike at 2B?)

 

We only have Kike for 1 more year after this and Arroyo for 3 more. Maybe Downs works his way into the scene, but 2B seems less of a worry, now, than it did last winter.

 

Here's a look at team control by position:

 

C: 1 yr (option) Vaz, 1 yr Plawecki (Ro Hernandez, Wong, Herrmann)

1B: 4 yrs Dalbec, 4 yrs Chavis (Casas)

2B: 3 yrs Arroyo [1-Kike] (Downs, Yorke)

3B: 2 yrs Devers-extension? (Potts, Bonaci)

SS: 1(opt out) or 4 Bogey, 4 yrs Arauz (Lugo)

LF: 3 yrs Verdugo, 3 yrs Cordero

CF: 1 yr Kike, 4+ yrs Duran (Jimenez, Rosario)

RF: 2 yrs Renfroe (Decker)

DH:

UT: 0 yr Marwin

[moonslav59]

It's odd to think right now, our problem starters are Eovaldi and E Rod. I'm going to say it and keep in mind I was all for Sox extending Eovaldi. I've never seen a pitcher that throws so hard that can't miss the bats as little as Eovaldi. For our pitching gurus, what's up with that?

 

I would not extend Eovaldi. I might even trade him at the deadline.

 

ERod is the tough call. The guy has been a winner, but the long term effects of COVID are unknown.

 

We need an ace, next year. We may have to try and get by with replacing ERod & Eovaldi with a FA & Sale with hopes that Seabold, Houck and maybe someone else stepping into the 5-6 starter slot.

 

A lot will depend on how players like Dalbec, Duran, Casas and to some extent Downs and Arroyo do, this year. If we don't have to spend big at 1B, OF and 1B next winter, we can sign 2 starters, a closer (extend Barnes?) and another solid set-up man.

[iortiz]

A shower of reality based on facts.

 

(5/21/21)

 

The Red Sox…

 

* have the AL’s best record (28-18)

 

* are a season-high 10 games over .500

 

* a three-game winning streak

 

* have been in 1st place for 42 consecutive days

 

* have the MLB’s best road record (15-6)

 

* have had their starting pitchers go 5.0+ innings in 14 straight games

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's odd to think right now, our problem starters are Eovaldi and E Rod. I'm going to say it and keep in mind I was all for Sox extending Eovaldi. I've never seen a pitcher that throws so hard that can't miss the bats as little as Eovaldi. For our pitching gurus, what's up with that?

 

Totally agree on Eovaldi. When he was the best pitcher in the 2018 postseason, announcers raved about his new, unhittable cutter at 93 mph. When he used it to strike out Bregman (who had posted videos of Houston lighting him up when Eovaldi was with Tampa), cameras showed Price mouth, "Post that."

[moonslav59]

Starting Pitchers Going into the 5th or Through the 5th and longer:

 

Eovaldi 9 out of 9 GS & 8 out of 9 with 5.0 IP or more

ERod 8 of 8 & 8/8

Richards 8 of 9 & 8/9

Pivetta 8 of 9 & 8/9

Perez 7 of 9 & 7/9

Houck 2 of 2 & 1/2

 

Total:

 

In 43 of 46 games, our starters went into the 5th inning. In the 3 they did not, they went 3.2 in all of them. (Maybe no team has seen its starters go 3.2 innings or more in every start.)

 

In 40 of 46 games, our starters went at least 5 full innings.

[Bellhorn04]

It's odd to think right now, our problem starters are Eovaldi and E Rod. I'm going to say it and keep in mind I was all for Sox extending Eovaldi. I've never seen a pitcher that throws so hard that can't miss the bats as little as Eovaldi. For our pitching gurus, what's up with that?

 

All the advanced stats say Eovaldi is pitching considerably better than his ERA.

 

As moon posted elsewhere, he has given up an OPS of .647.

 

He hasn't given up a single long ball.

 

We'll see if his luck turns around.