2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

I think the Pirates have several pitchers equal to or better than Nick Margevicius, and probably don't care much for comparisons to Martin Perez as selling points. Margevicius' numbers this year were very similar to those of Pirate RHP JT Brubaker, for example. And the sources BTV uses for their future projections also apparently do not look too favorably on Margevicius, given he has 4 years of control left and still only a surplus value of 3.8 million, or slightly more than Red Sox INF Christian Arroyo.

 

The Mariners, like most teams, are probably better positioned to outbid the Red Sox if/when Joe Musgrove becomes available, but I would be very shocked if that lackluster Moore/Margevicius package was the best offer they received...

 

Now if the Mariners were willing to pony up Logan Gilbert or Justus Sheffield, they could probably establish themselves as frontrunners for Musgrove...

[notin]

My whole problem is that the projection seems to be based on a nice stretch of 38 games. His larger sample 2019 season was at replacement level value.

 

And that 38 game sample was skewed by a 12 game hot start. In his last 26 games he OPS'd .748.

 

Fool's gold if ever I've seen it.

 

Yes, he is looking like a "sell high" candidate like I said. His value will be adjusted accordingly in the future. The thing is, at his current "sell high" value, there are not likely to be many buyers.

 

Chavis had a surplus value of $18.7 million on that same website not too long ago, but it has since beeen adjusted downward to $7.5 million, which definitely looks more appropriate...

[harmony]

Now if the Mariners were willing to pony up Logan Gilbert or Justus Sheffield, they could probably establish themselves as frontrunners for Musgrove...

That's funny.

 

Nearly 28-year-old Joe Musgrove, who posted an ERA of 3.86 in eight starts this year, would be a likely downgrade from 24-year-old Justus Sheffield, who posted a ERA of 3.58 in 10 starts.

 

And 23-year-old Logan Gilbert has a higher ceiling than Sheffield.

[mvp 78]

Bloom on WEEI:

 

@redsoxstats

“It’s not news we definitely need to add pitching. Starters, relievers, swingmen, we need to go out and get pitching. Good free agents, trades, we are excited with Houck, Pivetta, Sale, but we don’t want to be overly reliant on them.”

[notin]

That's funny.

 

Nearly 28-year-old Joe Musgrove, who posted an ERA of 3.86 in eight starts this year, would be a likely downgrade from 24-year-old Justus Sheffield, who posted a ERA of 3.58 in 10 starts.

 

And 23-year-old Logan Gilbert has a higher ceiling than Sheffield.

 

Will we only be looking at ERA and only 2020? Both Musgrove and Sheffield had similar ERA+ numbers this eyar (116 and 118). but Sheffield has basically 2020 and nothign else on his resume. He has 94 career IP. Musgrove at least has shown he can pitch a full season in MLB.

 

Sheffield is the prospect with the higher ceiling, but as of now Musgrove has the higher floor.

 

And if the Mariners want Musgrove - and maybe they don't - they won't be getting him for a package of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius. They might have to give up something good...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I threw one out there about Blake Snell and Kevin Kiermaier for Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Forgetting about the divisional rivalry thing for a moment, if Tampa were to move Snell while dumping Kiermaier, they probably would like a package of prospects of equal value. But that doesn't mean they want Jeter Downs...

 

Rob Bradford likes your idea of the Rays packaging Snell with Kiermaier to the Sox, but doesn't guess who/what it'd take the other way. Knowing the Rays, it would probably be more like Downs, Wong and Darwinzon Hernandez (fits the profile of another big, fast, cheap arm)... at least.

 

But Boston would have a new ace and Bloom would have an ace up his sleeve; if Cora ever refused to yank Snell from a five-inning shutout, the insubordination may be grounds for a Venable or Fuld replacement skipper.

[jad]

I hear Robinson Cano might be available.

[notin]

I hear Robinson Cano might be available.

 

Not until 2022...

[moonslav59]

Not until 2022...

 

I think he meant in trade.

[notin]

I think he meant in trade.

 

I’m pretty sure he’s been available in a trade every day since Day 2 in Seattle...

[harmony]

Will we only be looking at ERA and only 2020? Both Musgrove and Sheffield had similar ERA+ numbers this eyar (116 and 118). but Sheffield has basically 2020 and nothign else on his resume. He has 94 career IP. Musgrove at least has shown he can pitch a full season in MLB.

 

Sheffield is the prospect with the higher ceiling, but as of now Musgrove has the higher floor.

 

And if the Mariners want Musgrove - and maybe they don't - they won't be getting him for a package of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius. They might have to give up something good...

It's two years of nearly 28-year-old Joe Musgrove versus five years of 24-year-old Justus Sheffield.

 

Baseball Trade Values assigns Sheffield a surplus value of only $22.7 million by mistakenly* listing the lefthander with only four years of team control. Sheffield has only one year and 53 days of MLB service.

 

Some Seattle fans would not want to give up Dylan Moore for Joe Musgrove (especially with Gregory Polanco attached):

 

http://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3667&start=190

 

We can agree that Mariners would likely need to give up something more than the equivalent of Jarren Duran, Michael Chavis and C.J. Chatham (the offer that drew me into this conversation).

* Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto speculated that Sheffield, despite leading all AL rookie pitchers in fWAR, failed to be among the 10 players receiving votes for Rookie of the Year because sportswriters forgot the lefthander was a still a rookie after making his MLB debut in 2018.

[harmony]

I’m pretty sure he’s been available in a trade every day since Day 2 in Seattle...

Robinson Cano outperformed his contract in Seattle before the Mariners cashed in in a big way with the December 2018 trade to the Mets.

 

Cano's $240 million contract should end up being for $204 million (assuming no more suspensions). How does this year's suspension impact the $3.75 million the Mariners owe Cano each December 1 through 2022?

[Bellhorn04]

Robinson Cano outperformed his contract in Seattle before the Mariners cashed in in a big way with the December 2018 trade to the Mets.

 

Yes, he's always known how to Enhance his Performance.

[notin]

Rob Bradford likes your idea of the Rays packaging Snell with Kiermaier to the Sox, but doesn't guess who/what it'd take the other way. Knowing the Rays, it would probably be more like Downs, Wong and Darwinzon Hernandez (fits the profile of another big, fast, cheap arm)... at least.

 

But Boston would have a new ace and Bloom would have an ace up his sleeve; if Cora ever refused to yank Snell from a five-inning shutout, the insubordination may be grounds for a Venable or Fuld replacement skipper.

 

Since I proposed that deal on BTV, they have changed Snell’s value.

 

A package of Snell and Kiermaier has a surplus value of $42.7 million.

 

A package of Downs, Wong and Darwinzon Hernandez has a surplus value of $42.2 million.

 

That deal looks a lot more realistic to me...

[harmony]

The offseason plan at Lookout Landing, the Seattle counterpart to Boston's Over the Monster, calls for the trade of Matt Barnes for 27-year-old centerfielder Braden Bishop:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/18/21572811/lookout-landings-2020-mariners-offseason-plan-going-medium-taijuan-archer-kelenic-extension-inciarte

 

A favorite line: "the cash-strapped Sox may not want to pay that for the final year of a closer they don’t trust as much."

 

Bishop has posted a .291/.365/.396/.761 line in five minor league seasons but has struggled in 39 MLB games with a humble .128/.185/.151/.336 line.

 

In March FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen wrote: "Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-seattle-mariners/

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2021 salary of $4.1 million in the final year of team control over Matt Barnes, whom MLBTR also lists as a non-tender candidate.

Edited November 19, 2020 by harmony

[jad]

(I will never try to make a joke again.)

[moonslav59]

Since I proposed that deal on BTV, they have changed Snell’s value.

 

A package of Snell and Kiermaier has a surplus value of $42.7 million.

 

A package of Downs, Wong and Darwinzon Hernandez has a surplus value of $42.2 million.

 

That deal looks a lot more realistic to me...

 

I saw your trade on that site. It does seem more realistic than before they adjusted Snell's value upwards.

[notin]

I saw your trade on that site. It does seem more realistic than before they adjusted Snell's value upwards.

 

So would you trade Downs, Hernandez, and Wong for Snell and Kiermaier?

 

Snell is owed roughly $41 million over the next 3 seasons and Kiermaier is owed nearly $26 million over the next 2. Tampa would probably prefer not to trade Snell within the division, but how many other team will be willing to take on nearly $67 million in guaranteed contracts?

[Bellhorn04]

So would you trade Downs, Hernandez, and Wong for Snell and Kiermaier?

 

I think I would.

[notin]

I think I would.

 

I'd do it. It makes the Betts trade look even better.

 

So then the question becomes - would Tampa do it? Their willingness is more important than mine...

[notin]

Robinson Cano outperformed his contract in Seattle before the Mariners cashed in in a big way with the December 2018 trade to the Mets.

 

Cano's $240 million contract should end up being for $204 million (assuming no more suspensions). How does this year's suspension impact the $3.75 million the Mariners owe Cano each December 1 through 2022?

 

So... they traded him at the first opportunity? Wasn't that exactly my point?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So would you trade Downs, Hernandez, and Wong for Snell and Kiermaier?

 

 

In a heartbeat. Snell at the top of the rotation -- in his prime -- instantly brings credibility back to the idea of contending again.

[notin]

The offseason plan at Lookout Landing, the Seattle counterpart to Boston's Over the Monster, calls for the trade of Matt Barnes for 27-year-old centerfielder Braden Bishop:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/18/21572811/lookout-landings-2020-mariners-offseason-plan-going-medium-taijuan-archer-kelenic-extension-inciarte

 

A favorite line: "the cash-strapped Sox may not want to pay that for the final year of a closer they don’t trust as much."

 

Bishop has posted a .291/.365/.396/.761 line in five minor league seasons but has struggled in 39 MLB games with a humble .128/.185/.151/.336 line.

 

In March FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen wrote: "Bishop remains strangely snakebitten by injury, the latest and most bizarre of which was a 2019 lacerated spleen. He’s still a glove-first, bench outfield prospect."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-seattle-mariners/

 

MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2021 salary of $4.1 million in the final year of team control over Matt Barnes, whom MLBTR also lists as a non-tender candidate.

 

The Sox might trade Barnes, but no one in Red Sox Nation considers him a closer.

 

His salary will certainly limit his appeal for one season, but they can probably still do better than a 27yo AAAA one-dimensional outfielder. I expect them to get an MLB player less control or a lower level prospect they think can blossom.

 

It's also possible Barnes gets dealt for another non-tender candidate who better fits the Sox needs, like Johan Camargo or Jose Urena....

[moonslav59]

So would you trade Downs, Hernandez, and Wong for Snell and Kiermaier?

 

Snell is owed roughly $41 million over the next 3 seasons and Kiermaier is owed nearly $26 million over the next 2. Tampa would probably prefer not to trade Snell within the division, but how many other team will be willing to take on nearly $67 million in guaranteed contracts?

 

YES, in a heartbeat. I clicked "like" on your trade.

[harmony]

The Sox might trade Barnes, but no one in Red Sox Nation considers him a closer.

 

His salary will certainly limit his appeal for one season, but they can probably still do better than a 27yo AAAA one-dimensional outfielder. I expect them to get an MLB player less control or a lower level prospect they think can blossom.

 

It's also possible Barnes gets dealt for another non-tender candidate who better fits the Sox needs, like Johan Camargo or Jose Urena....

MLB.com and Roster Resource list Matt Barnes as the Red Sox closer:

 

Depth Chart | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Matt Barnes and his projected $4.1 million salary is not worth Braden Bishop or any other minimal asset. There is a reason Barnes is a non-tender candidate. Barnes at $2 million might be a different story.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox might trade Barnes, but no one in Red Sox Nation considers him a closer.

 

His salary will certainly limit his appeal for one season, but they can probably still do better than a 27yo AAAA one-dimensional outfielder. I expect them to get an MLB player less control or a lower level prospect they think can blossom.

 

It's also possible Barnes gets dealt for another non-tender candidate who better fits the Sox needs, like Johan Camargo or Jose Urena....

Barnes finished last season as the closer. As of right now , you would have to consider him to be the closer. Obviously, that could change.

[mvp 78]

MLB.com and Roster Resource list Matt Barnes as the Red Sox closer:

 

Depth Chart | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Matt Barnes and his projected $4.1 million salary is not worth Braden Bishop or any other minimal asset. There is a reason Barnes is a non-tender candidate. Barnes at $2 million might be a different story.

 

(x) Doubt

[harmony]

(x) Doubt

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html

 

As we know, not all candidates prevail.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html

 

As we know, not all candidates prevail.

 

Brasier shouldn't be on that list either.

[moonslav59]

Brasier shouldn't be on that list either.

 

Agreed- not at his cost.