2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

Great, imagine all the openers: instead of just manual openers, we can now afford an electric can opener, and a wall-mounted bottle opener... we can even get a remote that opens the garage door from the street -- without even getting out of the caaaahhh!

 

Well, we have already gotten a bit of a preview. Brad Hand was essentially a non-tender.

 

There may be better options than you think available.

 

What if any of the following get non-tendered: Trevor Williams, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea, Steve Matz, Zach Davies, Vince Velasquez, Archie Bradley, Matt Boyd, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez?

 

During a normal (re:non-pandemic that has ticket sales) season, all of those pitchers are no-brainers to be tendered deals. But then, during a normal season, picking up Brad Hand's $10mill option is also a no-brainer. I bet more than one name from that list becomes available on December 2nd...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, we have already gotten a bit of a preview. Brad Hand was essentially a non-tender.

 

There may be better options than you think available.

 

What if any of the following get non-tendered: Trevor Williams, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea, Steve Matz, Zach Davies, Vince Velasquez, Archie Bradley, Matt Boyd, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez?

 

During a normal (re:non-pandemic that has ticket sales) season, all of those pitchers are no-brainers to be tendered deals. But then, during a normal season, picking up Brad Hand's $10mill option is also a no-brainer. I bet more than one name from that list becomes available on December 2nd...

 

Lots of bounce-back candidates; without looking up stats, a few of them seemed once really good for about a half year.

 

Maybe Bloom stays away from Bauer and Springer and instead swings some blockbusters. Here are two that may make sense for the teams listed: Red Sox trade Bogaerts, Duran, Groome, Braiser and Chatham to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Lucas Sims and Joey Votto (trade sim says 44.60 to 45.00). Why might Cincy do it? To dump Votto's contract, plus they need a good shortstop and a hitter -- their offense is historically bad, no matter how good their rotation. Why might Boston do it? Castillo is really good and under control for four years. An All-Star starter is more important than a good outfield prospect, especially since they have another future centerfielder in Jimenez.

 

Then the Sox would trade Dalbec and Potts to Houston for Correa (trade sim says 23.6 to 22.6). Why would the Astros do it? They are going to lose Correa, and may move Bregman to short -- thus, the new third base alternatives. Why would Boston do it? To replace X, who may opt out anyway, with Correa, who may sign because of Cora. Longterm, the Sox look better with Castillo and Correa than Groome and Bogie...

[moonslav59]

Lots of bounce-back candidates; without looking up stats, a few of them seemed once really good for about a half year.

 

Maybe Bloom stays away from Bauer and Springer and instead swings some blockbusters. Here are two that may make sense for the teams listed: Red Sox trade Bogaerts, Duran, Groome, Braiser and Chatham to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Lucas Sims and Joey Votto (trade sim says 44.60 to 45.00). Why might Cincy do it? To dump Votto's contract, plus they need a good shortstop and a hitter -- their offense is historically bad, no matter how good their rotation. Why might Boston do it? Castillo is really good and under control for four years. An All-Star starter is more important than a good outfield prospect, especially since they have another future centerfielder in Jimenez.

 

Then the Sox would trade Dalbec and Potts to Houston for Correa (trade sim says 23.6 to 22.6). Why would the Astros do it? They are going to lose Correa, and may move Bregman to short -- thus, the new third base alternatives. Why would Boston do it? To replace X, who may opt out anyway, with Correa, who may sign because of Cora. Longterm, the Sox look better with Castillo and Correa than Groome and Bogie...

 

We are not trading prospects for 1 year players.

 

The Astros would not do this deal, either.

 

We may not see any blockbuster trades or signings- just a bunch of midlevel and under-the-radar moves that build our roster depth and set us on the way to competitiveness. We make one splash deal in hopes of luring fans back, but I doubt we'll trade 10 years of 2 young player's control for 1 year control of anyone, let alone a SS, the one position we are set.

[notin]

Lots of bounce-back candidates; without looking up stats, a few of them seemed once really good for about a half year.

 

Maybe Bloom stays away from Bauer and Springer and instead swings some blockbusters. Here are two that may make sense for the teams listed: Red Sox trade Bogaerts, Duran, Groome, Braiser and Chatham to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Lucas Sims and Joey Votto (trade sim says 44.60 to 45.00). Why might Cincy do it? To dump Votto's contract, plus they need a good shortstop and a hitter -- their offense is historically bad, no matter how good their rotation. Why might Boston do it? Castillo is really good and under control for four years. An All-Star starter is more important than a good outfield prospect, especially since they have another future centerfielder in Jimenez.

 

Then the Sox would trade Dalbec and Potts to Houston for Correa (trade sim says 23.6 to 22.6). Why would the Astros do it? They are going to lose Correa, and may move Bregman to short -- thus, the new third base alternatives. Why would Boston do it? To replace X, who may opt out anyway, with Correa, who may sign because of Cora. Longterm, the Sox look better with Castillo and Correa than Groome and Bogie...

 

No way Cincy makes that trade. Why would Cincy trade 4 years of Castillo to get 2 years of Bogaerts, along with oft-injured Groome and some spare parts? Also, Votto has full no-trade protection as a 10-5 player and has always expressed interest in staying in Cincinnati. (Look for the Reds to sign Semien this off-season to fill their SS gap.)

 

I also think Correa won't sign in Boston "because of Cora" unless the money is the best offer he can get. He did not hire an agent to reunite him with former coaches. Also, Houston does have a 3B prospect named Abraham Toro they seem to be quite high on and is probably slated to push Bregman back to shortstop if/when Correa leaves. And really, if ALCS runner-up Houston going to team all that much down this offseason? (Also, Boston should avoid Correa like he has COVID, which he might for all we know.)

 

If the Sox need to make a blockbuster deal for a starting pitcher - and they probably do - guys more likely to be available are Jon Gray and Jameson Taillon. If they can't get one, they should bolster the bullpen heavily, possibly starting with Brad Hand and the reportedly available Josh Hader...

[harmony]

Good news for teams looking to spend, this winter. Supply & Demand.

Teams such as the Seattle Mariners, who have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of only $81.3 million* for 2021 after an Opening Day payroll of $162 million as recently as 2018.

 

The Red Sox have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of $172.2 millon** in 2021, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

* including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit#gid=1520401900

 

** including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900

[moonslav59]

Teams such as the Seattle Mariners, who have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of only $81.3 million* for 2021 after an Opening Day payroll of $162 million as recently as 2018.

 

The Red Sox have a projected 40-man CBT payroll of $172.2 millon** in 2021, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

* including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P55um0jB8gsz4M2Q7hFeD6aFki7n74DBC1tsWXwoD5U/edit#gid=1520401900

 

** including player benefits: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900

 

It's not so much about the current numbers as the owner's willingness to spend in a period of extreme economic unknowns and instability.

 

I have no clue what Seattle's spending budget might be, this winter, but I'm thinking we may spend between $25-45M (per year rate) by the trade deadline.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen writes "On the Coming Deluge of Non-Tenders":

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-the-coming-deluge-of-non-tenders/

 

Later this week Longenhagen will examine the individual players who are candidates to be non-tendered.

MLB Trade Rumors has released its list of non-tender candidates:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html

 

The list may be conservative ... or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Finally, some soxtalk by talksox -- though it's still the same four or five guys...

 

Ok, ok, even though the numbers line up on the trade simulator, the Sox probably aren't going to make any big trades, especially since Bloom's only real chips are players he may want to rebuild around. But that doesn't mean other teams, especially mid-markets, won't be doing tear-downs of their business plans after doing basically zero business in a Covid summer. The Guardians will trade Lindor, the Cubs will trade Baez, and the Astros will probably trade Correa, because their clubs know those guys are goners. None of them will get a Verdugo, but they'll all get a Graterol or a Downs.

 

I don't want to trade Bogaerts, but I have doubts he'll be part of the next true Red Sox contender because of his opt out and the number of years it may take Bloom's model for building Boston back up. Sox Nation better be content with watching a young team develop in the next three or five years, unless you're one of those holding out hope for a handful of Cherington Lotto tix all hitting at once like in '13.

 

Realistically, the Sox won't make a radical reversal unless there are radical changes. Expecting the addition of a mid-rotation starting pitcher is far from radical... though it may be a better bet than, say, expecting Sale to ever be Sale again.

[notin]

Finally, some soxtalk by talksox -- though it's still the same four or five guys...

 

Ok, ok, even though the numbers line up on the trade simulator, the Sox probably aren't going to make any big trades, especially since Bloom's only real chips are players he may want to rebuild around. But that doesn't mean other teams, especially mid-markets, won't be doing tear-downs of their business plans after doing basically zero business in a Covid summer. The Guardians will trade Lindor, the Cubs will trade Baez, and the Astros will probably trade Correa, because their clubs know those guys are goners. None of them will get a Verdugo, but they'll all get a Graterol or a Downs.

 

I don't want to trade Bogaerts, but I have doubts he'll be part of the next true Red Sox contender because of his opt out and the number of years it may take Bloom's model for building Boston back up. Sox Nation better be content with watching a young team develop in the next three or five years, unless you're one of those holding out hope for a handful of Cherington Lotto tix all hitting at once like in '13.

 

Realistically, the Sox won't make a radical reversal unless there are radical changes. Expecting the addition of a mid-rotation starting pitcher is far from radical... though it may be a better bet than, say, expecting Sale to ever be Sale again.

 

I think if Bloom makes a big trade, he tries to minimize what he gives up and/or maximize his return by taking back a bad (but potentially useful) contract, much like he tried with Wil Myers last offseason.

 

Some contracts that might make sense for the Sox to take on along with a SP include Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs $25.6 mill), Ender Inciarte (1 yr $9.7 mill), Lorenzo Cain (2 yrs $35 mill) or Rougned Odor (2 yrs $27.6 mill), and I suppose Myers should still be on the list. So see what pitchers Tampa, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Texas and San Diego still have they might be happy moving in order to save a lot of money...

[harmony]

I think if Bloom makes a big trade, he tries to minimize what he gives up and/or maximize his return by taking back a bad (but potentially useful) contract, much like he tried with Wil Myers last offseason.

 

Some contracts that might make sense for the Sox to take on along with a SP include Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs $25.6 mill), Ender Inciarte (1 yr $9.7 mill), Lorenzo Cain (2 yrs $35 mill) or Rougned Odor (2 yrs $27.6 mill), and I suppose Myers should still be on the list. So see what pitchers Tampa, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Texas and San Diego still have they might be happy moving in order to save a lot of money...

Would it be wise for the Red Sox to take on the underwater contract of Pittsburgh outfielder Gregory Polanco to land a starter such as Joe Musgrove or Jameson Taillon?

[notin]

Would it be wise for the Red Sox to take on the underwater contract of Pittsburgh outfielder Gregory Polanco to land a starter such as Joe Musgrove or Jameson Taillon?

 

I would imagine he is another candidate with his 1 year $14.6 mill deal...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would it be wise for the Red Sox to take on the underwater contract of Pittsburgh outfielder Gregory Polanco to land a starter such as Joe Musgrove or Jameson Taillon?

 

You go back, Ben, do it again...

[moonslav59]

Would it be wise for the Red Sox to take on the underwater contract of Pittsburgh outfielder Gregory Polanco to land a starter such as Joe Musgrove or Jameson Taillon?

 

I actually submitted a trade on Trade Values for Polanco, Rodriguez & Musgrove.

 

(I offered up Duran, Chavis and Chatham. I seriously doubt Pitt would say yes, but the site accepted it.)

[harmony]

I actually submitted a trade on Trade Values for Polanco, Rodriguez & Musgrove.

 

(I offered up Duran, Chavis and Chatham. I seriously doubt Pitt would say yes, but the site accepted it.)

The website accepted my Seattle offer of utility player Dylan Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius for Joe Musgrove, Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29719/

 

... as well as my Seattle offer of outfield prospect Taylor Trammell and prospect lefthander Brandon Williamson for the same three Pirates:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29844/

Edited November 18, 2020 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The website accepted my Seattle offer of utility player Dylan Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius for Joe Musgrove, Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29719/

 

... as well as my Seattle offer of outfield prospect Taylor Trammell and prospect lefthander Brandon Williamson for the same three Pirates:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29844/

 

Seems like a hole in their system.

Edited November 18, 2020 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Seems like a whole in their system.

???

[Bellhorn04]

The website accepted my Seattle offer of utility player Dylan Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius for Joe Musgrove, Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29719/

 

... as well as my Seattle offer of outfield prospect Taylor Trammell and prospect lefthander Brandon Williamson for the same three Pirates:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29844/

 

The valuation of Moore seems a bit bullish, doesn't it?

[mvp 78]

The valuation of Moore seems a bit bullish, doesn't it?

 

Mooo...

[notin]

The website accepted my Seattle offer of utility player Dylan Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius for Joe Musgrove, Gregory Polanco and Richard Rodriguez:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29719/

 

... as well as my Seattle offer of outfield prospect Taylor Trammell and prospect lefthander Brandon Williamson for the same three Pirates:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-29844/

 

But why would the Pirates give up a starting pitcher with value in order to acquire a package headlined by a utility infielder? They might have interest in the Trammell package, but Trammell himself is seeing his value plummet the last couple seasons.

 

If Seattle actually offered that package, Pittsburgh would likely see much better offers than one containing a utility infielder and a fringey pitcher, even if they were able to unload the final season of Polanco's deal.

 

The other day I you tried to pick apart a deal where I had proposed a package headlined by Jeter Downs by citing other prospects Tampa had that were also utility infielders. Don't you think it is very easy to do the same to this Seattle deal? It's a safe bet the Pirates have their own equivalents of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius already...

[notin]

The valuation of Moore seems a bit bullish, doesn't it?

 

It's a "sell high" value, as Moore is coming off a decent season. After 2021, his value could easily drop by $15-20 million...

[Bellhorn04]

It's a "sell high" value, as Moore is coming off a decent season. After 2021, his value could easily drop by $15-20 million...

 

Does that make the valuation method being used a little questionable?

[notin]

Does that make the valuation method being used a little questionable?

 

I don't think so. Do you think trade values need to be static?

 

I believe what they do is use projected WAR in dollar values and then subtract guaranteed/projected salary. Well, projected WAR values can change fromyear to eyar and even day to day. But so can anyone's perception of a player.

 

The biggest issue with their method is it cannot account for whether or not Team A wants those specific players from Team A. I threw one out there about Blake Snell and Kevin Kiermaier for Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Forgetting about the divisional rivalry thing for a moment, if Tampa were to move Snell while dumping Kiermaier, they probably would like a package of prospects of equal value. But that doesn't mean they want Jeter Downs...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB.com predicts the Sox sign Kolten Wong for second, Blake Treinen for closer and James Paxton, as a one-year starting pitcher. The first two address holes, but another unreliable, injury-prone pitcher doesn't approach solving the biggest problem... nor would three Paxtons, to me.

 

They also have Bauer going to the Yanks, Springer and Realmuto to the Mets, and JBJ to the Jays.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think so. Do you think trade values need to be static?

 

I believe what they do is use projected WAR in dollar values and then subtract guaranteed/projected salary. Well, projected WAR values can change fromyear to eyar and even day to day. But so can anyone's perception of a player.

 

I don't get how Moore can have such a high projected WAR based on one good little chunk of games.

[harmony]

The valuation of Moore seems a bit bullish, doesn't it?

Agreed that the Seattle Mariners might be selling high on Dylan Moore, who this year posted 1.7 bWAR in only 38 games. As points of reference Alex Verdugo and Jackie Bradley Jr. led the 2020 Red Sox by posting 1.9 bWAR in 53 games and 1.8 bWAR in 55 games, respectively.

 

Baseball Trade Values gives four years of Verdugo a surplus value of $57.8 million and four years of Moore a surplus value of $21.2 million.

 

Perhaps those are bullish valuations ... or not.

 

The utility tag of Moore should not reduce his value. Moore could replace Gregory Polanco in the outfield (where Moore made 24 appearances this year) or could go to second base if Adam Frazier becomes too expensive for the Pirates in this final two years of team control.

 

The Seattle offer of Moore and lefthander Nick Margevicius was posted in response to the offer of Jarren Duran, Michael Chavis and C.J. Chatham for the same three Pirates. Five years of Margevicius is no great prize but this year the southpaw posted as many quality starts as Martin Perez (and was one shy of Nathan Eovaldi's total).

Edited November 18, 2020 by harmony

[notin]

I don't get how Moore can have such a high projected WAR based on one good little chunk of games.

 

Well you have to balance that with his projected salary, which might not be all that high.

 

Dylan Moore has 4 seasons of control left. Even if his projections come out to only 4 fWAR in that timeframe, that gives him a value of $32 million (using 2020 valuations). And if his expected salary over those 4 years is only a total of $10-12 million, that would give him a surplus value of $20-22 million.

 

I don't think those numbers are actually all that unreasonable. Especially since players who play multiple positions tend to get their defensive contributions for fWAR to be a little inflated. (I think the logic is the value in their versatility.) The only realy question is - will he stay on the field long enough in the next four seasons to accrue 4 fWAR. But then if he does not, his salary probably also isn't as high...

[Bellhorn04]

Well you have to balance that with his projected salary, which might not be all that high.

 

Dylan Moore has 4 seasons of control left. Even if his projections come out to only 4 fWAR in that timeframe, that gives him a value of $32 million (using 2020 valuations). And if his expected salary over those 4 years is only a total of $10-12 million, that would give him a surplus value of $20-22 million.

 

I don't think those numbers are actually all that unreasonable. Especially since players who play multiple positions tend to get their defensive contributions for fWAR to be a little inflated. (I think the logic is the value in their versatility.) The only realy question is - will he stay on the field long enough in the next four seasons to accrue 4 fWAR. But then if he does not, his salary probably also isn't as high...

 

My whole problem is that the projection seems to be based on a nice stretch of 38 games. His larger sample 2019 season was at replacement level value.

 

And that 38 game sample was skewed by a 12 game hot start. In his last 26 games he OPS'd .748.

 

Fool's gold if ever I've seen it.

Edited November 18, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[harmony]

But why would the Pirates give up a starting pitcher with value in order to acquire a package headlined by a utility infielder? They might have interest in the Trammell package, but Trammell himself is seeing his value plummet the last couple seasons.

 

If Seattle actually offered that package, Pittsburgh would likely see much better offers than one containing a utility infielder and a fringey pitcher, even if they were able to unload the final season of Polanco's deal.

 

The other day I you tried to pick apart a deal where I had proposed a package headlined by Jeter Downs by citing other prospects Tampa had that were also utility infielders. Don't you think it is very easy to do the same to this Seattle deal? It's a safe bet the Pirates have their own equivalents of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius already...

Even with his fall from a Top 20 prospect Seattle outfield prospect Taylor Trammell would be the second-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, not far behind Jeter Downs. MLB Pipeline's most recent rankings have Downs at No, 40 and Trammell at No. 51.

 

The Trammell package also included lefthander Brandon Williamson, who sparkled in a short stint at short-season Class A after being taken in the second round of the 2019 draft. Williamson is ranked 10th in a Seattle farm system that remains stacked despite this year's graduation of Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner Evan White and pitchers Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn (who posted an aggregate ERA of 3.92 in a combined 20 starts).

 

Do the Pirates have the equivalent of 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who posted an ERA of 3.36 with a K/BB of 6.87 in three minor league seasons? In five fewer starts, Margevicius this year posted as many quality starts as Martin Perez.

[moonslav59]

My whole problem is that the projection seems to be based on a nice stretch of 38 games. His larger sample 2019 season was at replacement level value.

 

And that 38 game sample was skewed by a 12 game hot start. In his last 26 games he OPS'd .748.

 

Fool's gold if ever I've seen it.

 

My guess is most players with good numbers in such small sample sizes can point to a great very short stretch.

 

Many "bad" players can point to one bad stretch- sometimes just a game or two.

[notin]

Even with his fall from a Top 20 prospect Seattle outfield prospect Taylor Trammell would be the second-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, not far behind Jeter Downs. MLB Pipeline's most recent rankings have Downs at No, 40 and Trammell at No. 51.

 

The Trammell package also included lefthander Brandon Williamson, who sparkled in a short stint at short-season Class A after being taken in the second round of the 2019 draft. Williamson is ranked 10th in a Seattle farm system that remains stacked despite this year's graduation of Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, Gold Glove winner Evan White and pitchers Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn (who posted an aggregate ERA of 3.92 in a combined 20 starts).

 

Do the Pirates have the equivalent of 24-year-old lefthander Nick Margevicius, who posted an ERA of 3.36 with a K/BB of 6.87 in three minor league seasons? In five fewer starts, Margevicius this year posted as many quality starts as Martin Perez.

 

I think the Pirates have several pitchers equal to or better than Nick Margevicius, and probably don't care much for comparisons to Martin Perez as selling points. Margevicius' numbers this year were very similar to those of Pirate RHP JT Brubaker, for example. And the sources BTV uses for their future projections also apparently do not look too favorably on Margevicius, given he has 4 years of control left and still only a surplus value of 3.8 million, or slightly more than Red Sox INF Christian Arroyo.

 

The Mariners, like most teams, are probably better positioned to outbid the Red Sox if/when Joe Musgrove becomes available, but I would be very shocked if that lackluster Moore/Margevicius package was the best offer they received...