2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

Player opt outs in contracts are brutal. Bogey having an opt out after 2022 is worse than him being a free agent after 2022. In the latter case, there's some certainty at least. Instead you have the 'will he or won't he' situation. If the guy tails off like Price and JD, they don't opt out.

 

Bogaerts is an interesting case.

 

I was very surprised he ever signed the extension in the first place. He was 26 with one year to go until free agency and his agent (Boras) has a notorious reputation for encouraging his clients to free agency. While Boras has had a few sign extensions prior to free agency, Bogaerts might be the only one to do so with only one year of arbitration left. You just know Boras did not want him to do that deal.

 

So did Bogaerts sign it because he wants to stay in Boston regardless? Or was it just because the team was coming off a World Series win and he wanted to keep the team intact?

[notin]

This is one reason I am open to seeing what return we could get. I'm not for pushing to trade him, but maybe someone offers us a nice package in return.

 

Defense up the middle is a big priority.

 

We do not have a great defensive catcher.

2B is an open slot.

CF is an open slot.

 

Maybe Vazquez isn't great defensively, but he ranks near the top of MLB in DRS...

[mvp 78]

This is true but depressing. No Fisk/Lynn/Burleson in sight. Which of this century's title teams had the best D up the middle?

 

'04: Varitek/Cabrera/Bellhorn/Damon?

 

'07: Varitek/Lugo/Pedroia/Ellsbury?

 

'13: Ross/Drew/Pedroia/Ellsbury?

 

'18: Vazquez/Bogaerts/Kinsler/Bradley?

 

The Best Team Ever had the most Gold Glovers, with JBJ, Kinsler and Mookie, with Beni a finalist in left, and Moreland a past winner at first. But I may give the edge to the Bearded Bros, after Ross took over in the postseason; Pedey and Stephen Drew were that good in October.

 

13>18>07>04

[notin]

This is one reason I am open to seeing what return we could get. I'm not for pushing to trade him, but maybe someone offers us a nice package in return.

 

Defense up the middle is a big priority.

 

We do not have a great defensive catcher.

2B is an open slot.

CF is an open slot.

 

For some comparison, Vazquez has been credited with 35 Defensive runs Saved in 3546 innings behind the plate.

 

Now DRS is not avaialble for the first 4 seasons Varitek played. But his next 4 (2002 through 2005), he was credited with (-16) Defensive Runs Saved in 4291 innings.

 

Vazquez gets a huge edge using this metric...

[notin]

13>18>07>04

 

So you think the 04 team was worse defensively than the team that had Lugo?

[moonslav59]

Maybe Vazquez isn't great defensively, but he ranks near the top of MLB in DRS...

 

To me, the full "defensive value" of a catcher is very hard to quantify, especially things like "getting the most out of the staff" or CERA type data, framing pitches, blocking passed balls and WP's and more.

 

Time and time again, Vaz has under performed with pitchers when compared to our other catcher.

 

I like Vaz, but I don't see him as an overall plus on D, when everything not having to do with offense is factored in.

[notin]

To me, the full "defensive value" of a catcher is very hard to quantify, especially things like "getting the most out of the staff" or CERA type data, framing pitches, blocking passed balls and WP's and more.

 

Time and time again, Vaz has under performed with pitchers when compared to our other catcher.

 

I like Vaz, but I don't see him as an overall plus on D, when everything not having to do with offense is factored in.

 

There is a lot to it, but sometimes the sample sizes of the backups with the other pitchers creates a misleading situation.

 

The only reason I trade Vazquez is I think he can be replaced easily on this market and other teams do have interest in him, hopefully enough to get back something needed...

[moonslav59]

So you think the 04 team was worse defensively than the team that had Lugo?

 

Lugo was actually pretty good defensively, until he got hurt and lost a step. He had plus range that more than made up for the unforced errors. When he lost that step, he became a net minus.

 

The best Sox SSs by UZR/150 by year only since 2004 were (400+ innings):

19.8 Reese '04

14.6 Gonzo '06

9.9 S Drew '13

8.7 Cora '06

4.7 Aviles '12

3.0 Green '09

2.6 Bogey '15

1.7 Scutaro '11

1.3 Bogey '18

0.8 Bogey '19

-0.6 Lugo '07

(Worst: -9.6 Renteria '05)

 

FYI: 2B in our ring years:

7.6 Pedey '13

4.2 Holt '18

4.1 Pedey '07

-6.2 Bellhorn '04

 

CF

25.3 Crisp '07

8.8 JBJ '18

1.4 Ellsbury '13

-10.0 Damon '04

 

 

[notin]

Lugo was actually pretty good defensively, until he got hurt and lost a step. He had plus range that more than made up for the unforced errors. When he lost that step, he became a net minus.

 

The best Sox SSs by UZR/150 by year only since 2004 were (400+ innings):

19.8 Reese '04

14.6 Gonzo '06

9.9 S Drew '13

8.7 Cora '06

4.7 Aviles '12

3.0 Green '09

2.6 Bogey '15

1.7 Scutaro '11

1.3 Bogey '18

0.8 Bogey '19

-0.6 Lugo '07

(Worst: -9.6 Renteria '05)

 

FYI: 2B in our ring years:

7.6 Pedey '13

4.2 Holt '18

4.1 Pedey '07

-6.2 Bellhorn '04

 

CF

25.3 Crisp '07

8.8 JBJ '18

1.4 Ellsbury '13

-10.0 Damon '04

 

 

 

Had we kept Adam Everet,, he would top that list easily.

 

Also the lack of Iglesias there makes me wonder, did he play that few innings in Boston? He did see a LOT of time at 3B, and was easily the best defender there I have seen in a long time. Heck I still think of him as the best defensive 3B in Sox history...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Both Moon and Notin make good points about catchers. It's not fair for me to be disappointed in Vazquez because he didn't turn out to be IRod, whose arm he had coming up, or as good as the Molinas, who he worked out with in the winters.

 

But for another perspective, we shouldn't forget how certain pitchers preferred Sandy Leon in the title year when it was their turn to start.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lugo was actually pretty good defensively, until he got hurt and lost a step. He had plus range that more than made up for the unforced errors. When he lost that step, he became a net minus.

 

The best Sox SSs by UZR/150 by year only since 2004 were (400+ innings):

19.8 Reese '04

14.6 Gonzo '06

9.9 S Drew '13

8.7 Cora '06

4.7 Aviles '12

3.0 Green '09

2.6 Bogey '15

1.7 Scutaro '11

1.3 Bogey '18

0.8 Bogey '19

-0.6 Lugo '07

(Worst: -9.6 Renteria '05)

 

FYI: 2B in our ring years:

7.6 Pedey '13

4.2 Holt '18

4.1 Pedey '07

-6.2 Bellhorn '04

 

CF

25.3 Crisp '07

8.8 JBJ '18

1.4 Ellsbury '13

-10.0 Damon '04

 

 

 

From sheer memory -- and the eye-test -- Alex Gonzalez was the best, but then I'd choose Orlando Cabrera. No OC, not even ahead of Mike Aviles? I guess not by stats, but he was money throughout the '04 postseason. Drew was maybe the steadiest, but OC always seemed like he made the big play when it mattered most.

[moonslav59]

There is a lot to it, but sometimes the sample sizes of the backups with the other pitchers creates a misleading situation.

 

The only reason I trade Vazquez is I think he can be replaced easily on this market and other teams do have interest in him, hopefully enough to get back something needed...

 

No, I have done many data dives that only compare how each catcher did with the same pitchers. Leon and others consistently got better results with the vast majority of the same pitchers samples.

 

Granted, some pitchers had vastly different sample size numbers with specific pitchers, but almost all of the ones with larger sample sizes favored someone not named Vaz.

 

Pitchers with the most IP with the Sox since 2014:

 

Porcello (964)

4.19 Leon (576)

4.93 Swihart (122)

4.96 Vaz (211)

 

ERod (699)

3.78 Hanigan (50) note: small sample size

3.98 Vaz (456)

4.05 Leon (118)

4.44 Swihart (75)

 

Price (588)

2.96 Leon (204)

4.27 Vaz (360)

 

Sale (520)

2.79 Leon (436)

4.61 Vaz (84)

 

Buch (423)

2.83 VMart (241)

3.01 Leon (155)

3.95 Salty (207)

4.44 Vaz (118)

 

Kelly (359)

3.23 Vaz (98)

4.48 Swihart (74)

4.63 Leon (56)

4.83 Hanigan (91)

 

Barnes (337)

3.81 Vaz (158)

3.83 Leon (99)

 

The ones where Vaz did better have much closer differentials, except for Joe Kelly.

 

He gets blown away with Porcello, Price, Sale and Buch. Their results are staggering!

 

It doesn't seem to matter who catches for ERod & Barnes.

 

[mvp 78]

So you think the 04 team was worse defensively than the team that had Lugo?

 

Comes down to Lugo vs Bellhorn. Lugo had a higher dWAR in 07 than Bell did in 04. Both had better than normal years.

[Bellhorn04]

This is one reason I am open to seeing what return we could get. I'm not for pushing to trade him, but maybe someone offers us a nice package in return.

 

Defense up the middle is a big priority.

 

We do not have a great defensive catcher.

2B is an open slot.

CF is an open slot.

 

Bogaerts is a 5 WAR player, period. That's the way I see it.

 

This 'defense up the middle' thing sounds great, but I don't really see much proof that it translates to great success.

 

Especially with the changes in the game - defensive shifts, higher K rates, higher home run rates.

[notin]

Comes down to Lugo vs Bellhorn. Lugo had a higher dWAR in 07 than Bell did in 04. Both had better than normal years.

 

It was close.

 

B-R gives Lugo a dWAR of 0.8 and Bellhorn a dWAR of 0.6 in those seasons....

[moonslav59]

Had we kept Adam Everet,, he would top that list easily.

 

Also the lack of Iglesias there makes me wonder, did he play that few innings in Boston? He did see a LOT of time at 3B, and was easily the best defender there I have seen in a long time. Heck I still think of him as the best defensive 3B in Sox history...

 

Iggy did not have enough innings in one season to make the list. Here are the overall from 2004 to 2020 (400+ innings). Did you forget Adrian Beltre at 3B?

 

SS

19.8 Reese

18.2 Iggy

14.4 Gonzo

10.9 Drew

6.5 Cora

4.8 Aviles

3.0 Green

2.8 Lowrie

0.0 Bogey

-1.9 Scutaro

-5.0 OCab (weird)

-7.9 Lugo

-9.6 Renteria

 

2B

9.1 Pedey

8.4 Cora

2.7 Holt

1.5 Graffanino

-4.1 to -5.0 Chavis, Nunez, Loretta & Bellhorn

 

CF

9.1 Crisp

6.3 JBJ

4.6 Ellsbury

3.0 Betts

-3.4 Beni

-8.7 DMac

-13.3 Damon

-18.1 Kalish

-27.7 Cameron (weird)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Lugo was actually pretty good defensively, until he got hurt and lost a step. He had plus range that more than made up for the unforced errors. When he lost that step, he became a net minus.

 

The best Sox SSs by UZR/150 by year only since 2004 were (400+ innings):

19.8 Reese '04

14.6 Gonzo '06

9.9 S Drew '13

8.7 Cora '06

4.7 Aviles '12

3.0 Green '09

2.6 Bogey '15

1.7 Scutaro '11

1.3 Bogey '18

0.8 Bogey '19

-0.6 Lugo '07

(Worst: -9.6 Renteria '05)

 

FYI: 2B in our ring years:

7.6 Pedey '13

4.2 Holt '18

4.1 Pedey '07

-6.2 Bellhorn '04

 

CF

25.3 Crisp '07

8.8 JBJ '18

1.4 Ellsbury '13

-10.0 Damon '04

 

 

The top 2 scores, Reese and Crisp, were not good enough hitters to keep in the lineup when it mattered. That says something right there.

[mvp 78]

It was close.

 

B-R gives Lugo a dWAR of 0.8 and Bellhorn a dWAR of 0.6 in those seasons....

 

And at that point, it's just personal preference. I think I'd trust the 07 defense more than the 04 defense.

 

Crisp > Damon

Lugo

Pedroia > Bellhorn

Tek = Tek

[moonslav59]

The top 2 scores, Reese and Crisp, were not good enough hitters to keep in the lineup when it mattered. That says something right there.

 

Crisp had a .720 OPS with us and a .729 career OPS.

 

JBJ had a .732 OPS career. (.727 from 2017-2019)

 

Reese was decent from 1999-2000 (.727), but he fell off the cliff afterwards (.627 2001-2004> retired).

[Bellhorn04]

Crisp had a .720 OPS with us and a .729 career OPS.

 

JBJ had a .732 OPS career. (.727 from 2017-2019)

 

Reese was decent from 1999-2000 (.727), but he fell off the cliff afterwards (.627 2001-2004> retired).

 

The fact is that a player like Bogaerts is much more important to have on your team. WAR tells the truth.

[moonslav59]

The fact is that a player like Bogaerts is much more important to have on your team. WAR tells the truth.

 

Bogey is a huge plus, despite his defense not helping his overall value (WAR).

 

I may talk down his D, but I love the guy.

[notin]

The top 2 scores, Reese and Crisp, were not good enough hitters to keep in the lineup when it mattered. That says something right there.

 

Crisp struggled in the 2007 post-season and was replaced by Ellsbury.

 

But when Ellsbury struggled in the 2008 post-season, he was replaced by Crisp, who was absolute money...

[notin]

Iggy did not have enough innings in one season to make the list. Here are the overall from 2004 to 2020 (400+ innings). Did you forget Adrian Beltre at 3B?

 

 

 

Beltre will be the one with all the hardware mentioned in Cooperstown, but in his limted time there, Iglesias just made everything look easy...

[Bellhorn04]

Crisp struggled in the 2007 post-season and was replaced by Ellsbury.

 

But when Ellsbury struggled in the 2008 post-season, he was replaced by Crisp, who was absolute money...

 

And then Crisp was traded for Ramon Ramirez...

[moonslav59]

Beltre will be the one with all the hardware mentioned in Cooperstown, but in his limted time there, Iglesias just made everything look easy...

 

Beltre played more innings with the Sox than Iggy.

 

Iggy's innings with the Sox

'11-'12: 112 SS

'13: 279 SS, 240 3B & 12 2B

TOTAL: 743 innings

 

Beltre put in 1343 innings in 2010 with the Sox- nearly double what Iggy gave us over 3 partial seasons.

[moonslav59]

And then Crisp was traded for Ramon Ramirez...

 

Like many Sox moves, Ramon had one of his worst years with us.

 

ERA/IP

2.64/72

2.84/70

2.99/69

4.46/42 with BOS

2.62/29

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen writes "On the Coming Deluge of Non-Tenders":

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-the-coming-deluge-of-non-tenders/

 

Later this week Longenhagen will examine the individual players who are candidates to be non-tendered.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen writes "On the Coming Deluge of Non-Tenders":

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-the-coming-deluge-of-non-tenders/

 

Later this week Longenhagen will examine the individual players who are candidates to be non-tendered.

 

Good news for teams looking to spend, this winter. Supply & Demand.

[mvp 78]

Good news for teams looking to spend, this winter. Supply & Demand.

 

Right up the Sox alley. They want to spend but aren't going to go for the big contracts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right up the Sox alley. They want to spend but aren't going to go for the big contracts.

 

Great, imagine all the openers: instead of just manual openers, we can now afford an electric can opener, and a wall-mounted bottle opener... we can even get a remote that opens the garage door from the street -- without even getting out of the caaaahhh!